What is wrong with Mcdavid?

[Dhockey16]

I was so stoked to watch the Oilers this year and it's clear without McDavid being McDavid and without competent goaltending they are unlikely to make the playoffs. Hard to say what the team should do. Do you shut 97 down for a month and hope he heals up? What happens if they do sit him and win one game in December? The time to sit him would've been when he got hurt earlier in the year and missed games. I get the organization's perspective, they've got him on a contract for a limited period of time with no guarantee he'll re-sign. It's not necessarily "cup or bust", but it might be something close to that.

I don't really see an immediate resolution to the goalie issue either. Draisaitl's contract is too good to be moved unless the return is a #1 goalie at his salary or less, right? Even then I'm not sure. Nurse's contract is atrocious for the player he is but even if they could move him it's not clear how they replace him on the blueline.

 

[Turin]

Overall the numbers are closer (McDavids rates are still higher) but for Crosby alot of it was his first few years outplaying McDavids first few. McDavid has been accending every year for the past 3 (untill whatever this slow start is)

Age 18-26 Overall PS /82

McDavid 14.4
Crosby 14.1

BUT, age 24-26

McDavid 17
Crosby 13

So McDavids rates will likely keep climbing for the next few years before the decline.

It is extremely close, bro.

 

[crowfish]

Is this fancy chart saying McDavid is a better offensive player than Gretzky? If it is, then it’s a bad chart.

On a per game basis adjusted for the era that is what it is saying. Of course rates will change once he has played a significant amount of games outside his prime years like Gretzky. So no, the chart is not saying he is better than Gretzky. Just showing what sort of company he is in with his play.

Crosby and McDavid have been comparable offensive producers almost their entire careers. The only difference was the once-in-a-lifetime North Division one-off and last season. If you think McDavid is in Howe's stratosphere, you have some homework to do.

How do you explain the 2021 playoff run where McDavid had the most points in the salary cap era despite not even reaching the finals? The Canadian division thing was debunked with his 2022 season and the 2021 playoff run. It was always a stupid excuse. Nobody else posted historic stats that year.

 

[Dhockey16]

Crosby and McDavid have been comparable offensive producers almost their entire careers. The only difference was the once-in-a-lifetime North Division one-off and last season. If you think McDavid is in Howe's stratosphere, you have some homework to do.

Those are two pretty enormous outliers. 64 goals and 153 points is absolutely bonkers and one of the best individual seasons ever. Even if you eliminate those two seasons he still has 3 scoring titles to Sid's 2 at age 26. 5 total Art Ross trophies for 97. McDavid has already had the better career offensively. Sid's two Conn Smythe trophies make it clear who has had the better career.

 

[crowfish]

Howe is a tier ahead of McDavid

There is the alltime pointshares thru 26 year old season. You can find Howe next to Stamkos on that list. If you can find a better overall metric than pointshares to measure the players skill then feel free to share it.

 

[jigglysquishy]

View attachment 770163

There is the alltime pointshares thru 26 year old season. You can find Howe next to Stamkos on that list. If you can find a better overall metric than pointshares to measure the players skill then feel free to share it.

Point shares are atrocious and have no relevancy in any serious hockey discussion.

It's just bad stats.

 

[crowfish]

Point shares are atrocious and have no relevancy in any serious hockey discussion.

It's just bad stats.

Yes it's a terrible stat, must be a fluke how Gretzky and Lemiuex lead it all time on a per game basis.

Point shares are atrocious and have no relevancy in any serious hockey discussion.

It's just bad stats.

Would you prefer era adjusted points? Or does this one not fit your narrative either. McDavid a full 132 adjusted pts more at the same age as Howe.

 

[blundluntman]

Crosby belongs in the Gretz, Mario tier for sure. Look at him, even way past the supposed prime years still scoring above ppg. He is a very special player.

Having a high floor does not give him the same ceiling as Gretzky and Lemieux. Please stop it with these kinds of takes.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Yes it's a terrible stat, must be a fluke how Gretzky and Lemiuex lead it all time on a per game basis.

It is a bad stat considering the second best forward ever isn't second on the top of the list.

The entire formula is based on baseball nerds comparing Bonds and Ruth while having zero understanding of the nuance of hockey.

Would you prefer era adjusted points? Or does this one not fit your narrative either. McDavid a full 132 adjusted pts more at the same age as Howe.

View attachment 770171

Ya the HockeyRef adjusted stats are pretty terrible. To quote my post from yesterday

Exactly. If a baseball fan, with minimal familiarity with hockey, tries to adjust hockey stats there will be lots of things they mis-assume because they are thinking about baseball instead of hockey.

Baseball has always had 9 players. Hockey has tripled the skaters in 100 years. How would a non-fan adjust it? Simple, 1 for 1 ice-time adjustment.

Gordie Howe plays 25 minutes with 9 forwards. Well now that there's 12 forwards he plays (9/12) 18.75 minutes. And his point totals are therefore adjusted by 9/12.

But wait a minute. That doesn't make sense. Why would a coach, by going from 3 line hockey to 4 line hockey, take the 6.25 minutes away from Howe, proportionally the same as a third liner. Wouldn't you still try to play Howe more? 4th liners are only getting 8-10 minutes a game. Why are 6 of those minutes coming from your stars, and only 2-4 of those minutes coming from 2nd and 3rd lines together?

It completely misunderstands how the transition from 3 line to 4 line hockey happened from an ice time perspective. It's why the numbers look good for post 1990 hockey, look okay for 70s and 80s, and look downright confusing for 20s-60s.

This is literally the Hockey Reference formula.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

Man, I’ve been dying for a Crosby vs Ovechkin McDavid thread. I’m surprised we haven’t had one til now.

 

[crowfish]

It is a bad stat considering the second best forward ever isn't second on the top of the list.

The entire formula is based on baseball nerds comparing Bonds and Ruth while having zero understanding of the nuance of hockey.



Ya the HockeyRef adjusted stats are pretty terrible. To quote my post from yesterday

So HockeyRef stats suck. You must have your own stats to show that Howe is top 2 all time? Or do we just take your word for it?

 

[Mobiandi]

He had his time in the sun. It's the Bedard era now

 

[jigglysquishy]

So HockeyRef stats suck. You must have your own stats to show that Howe is top 2 all time? Or do we just take your word for it?

We can point to VsX7 scores, comparing the best 7 years to X (usually second highest scorer unless second highest is an outlier like Gretzky 1989)

Wayne Gretzky- 155.6
Phil Esposito - 130.4
Gordie Howe - 125.5
Mario Lemieux - 119.8
Connor McDavid - 116.1
Bobby Orr - 114.8
Jaromir Jagr- 114.2

Or to Hart shares (share of total Hart votes)

Wayne Gretzky - 901
Gordie Howe - 615
Sidney Crosby - 500
Mario Lemieux - 486
Connor McDavid - 414
Alexander Ovechkin - 413
Jaromir Jagr - 403
Bobby Orr - 357

Or top 3 Hart finishes
Gordie Howe - 12
Wayne Gretzky - 11
Bobby Hull - 8
Mario Lemieux- 7
Bobby Orr - 7
Jean Beliveau - 7
Jaromir Jagr - 6

The last time the History of Hockey forum voted on top 200 players ever, Howe finished second to Gretzky. Zero of 32 posters had Howe outside top 3

Top-100 Hockey Players of All-Time

Top-200 Hockey Players of All-Time The following is the final list of the top hockey players of all-time as determined by 32 voting members of the History of Hockey community. Report any errors to @quoipourquoi RankPlayerPositionBornNationBirth City 1Wayne GretzkyC1961CanadaBrantford...

forums.hfboards.com

Howe's stretch of 20 consecutive years of finishing top 5 in scoring is simply unmatched. It includes 6 Art Rosses and 6 Harts (across 8 seasons). Seasons like finishing 3rd in scoring in 1950. And then finishing 3rd in scoring in 1969. Or a season like 1953 where he scored 156% the closest Canadian non teammate. McDavid 2023 was 135% for reference.

Unmatched offensive dominance while being the best defensive winger of his era. The highest offensive peak outside Gretzky and Lemieux. The longest prime in hockey history.

The Big Four (Howe, Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux) is just so far ahead of everyone else in hockey history. It's why the debate for #5 is so interesting and why McDavid becoming the de facto #5 is a real possibility.

 

[Studz]

Crosby belongs in the Gretz, Mario tier for sure. Look at him, even way past the supposed prime years still scoring above ppg. He is a very special player.V

Crosby belongs in the Gretz, Mario tier for sure. Look at him, even way past the supposed prime years still scoring above ppg. He is a very special player.

He is a very special player. One of the best ever. The problem is the other 4 were a significant step up.

 

[crowfish]

We can point to VsX7 scores, comparing the best 7 years to X (usually second highest scorer unless second highest is an outlier like Gretzky 1989)

Wayne Gretzky- 155.6
Phil Esposito - 130.4
Gordie Howe - 125.5
Mario Lemieux - 119.8
Connor McDavid - 116.1
Bobby Orr - 114.8
Jaromir Jagr- 114.2

Or to Hart shares (share of total Hart votes)

Wayne Gretzky - 901
Gordie Howe - 615
Sidney Crosby - 500
Mario Lemieux - 486
Connor McDavid - 414
Alexander Ovechkin - 413
Jaromir Jagr - 403
Bobby Orr - 357

Or top 3 Hart finishes
Gordie Howe - 12
Wayne Gretzky - 11
Bobby Hull - 8
Mario Lemieux- 7
Bobby Orr - 7
Jean Beliveau - 7
Jaromir Jagr - 6

The last time the History of Hockey forum voted on top 200 players ever, Howe finished second to Gretzky. Zero of 32 posters had Howe outside top 3

Top-100 Hockey Players of All-Time

Top-200 Hockey Players of All-Time The following is the final list of the top hockey players of all-time as determined by 32 voting members of the History of Hockey community. Report any errors to @quoipourquoi RankPlayerPositionBornNationBirth City 1Wayne GretzkyC1961CanadaBrantford...

forums.hfboards.com

Howe's stretch of 20 consecutive years of finishing top 5 in scoring is simply unmatched. It includes 6 Art Rosses and 6 Harts (across 8 seasons). Seasons like finishing 3rd in scoring in 1950. And then finishing 3rd in scoring in 1969. Or a season like 1953 where he scored 156% the closest Canadian non teammate. McDavid 2023 was 135% for reference.

Unmatched offensive dominance while being the best defensive winger of his era. The highest offensive peak outside Gretzky and Lemieux. The longest prime in hockey history.

The Big Four (Howe, Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux) is just so far ahead of everyone else in hockey history. It's why the debate for #5 is so interesting and why McDavid becoming the de facto #5 is a real possibility.

Hart voting is hardly a scientific way to track greatness, but using your own logic:

McDavid first 8 seasons

Hart top 3 finishes: 5
Hart top 5 finishes: 7
Hart wins: 3

Howe first 8 seasons

Hart top 3 finishes: 3
Hart top 5 finishes: 4
Hart wins: 2

 

[ORRFForever]

His play is the least of Edmonton's worries.

 

[lettuceAA]

He's been caring the oilers for too long, it's not sustainable and he came back too early from injury because the team is so bad without which is also affecting his performance.

 

[Soundwave]

He's been caring the oilers for too long, it's not sustainable and he came back too early from injury because the team is so bad without which is also affecting his performance.

He’s still hurt. Just playing through it.

 

[deca guard]

whats wrong with mcdavid ?
#1- katz dont know how to run an nhl franchise
#2- neither does holland

mean while mcdavid is a wild mustang looking to become an nhl legend and create a great team , but now knows his organization isnt capable of that so becomes frustrated because without proper owner and gm its impossible...

 

[#37]

Hart voting is hardly a scientific way to track greatness,

This is true, perhaps we should track greatness based on the number of years the player was actually considered to be "The Greatest of All Time"?

My take on the BIG 3 (Gretzky, Orr, and Howe) is that it is a club comprised solely of players who, at one time or another, were considered "The Greatest of All Time". So, you have a present title holder and two former title holders. The only way you enter that club is to actually hold the title of "The Greatest of All Time", there is just no other way to displace a former title holder. Sometimes respect is worth more than statistics.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Point shares are atrocious and have no relevancy in any serious hockey discussion.

It's just bad stats.

Agreed. Point shares (although well intentioned) are a poorly designed metric. It truly seems like the creator doesn't understand some basic concepts about how hockey is played.

Here's a long thread where the design flaws are covered in detail: Point Shares? (Warning: Thread for stat dorks:)) - I challenge anyone to read that thread and still take point shares seriously.

It's true that you can cherry-pick a few reasonable-sounding results (Gretzky is 1st; Howe is in the top 4; Jagr, Ovechkin, Lidstrom and Roy are in the top 10). But there are tons of clearly illogical results (Roberto Luongo is ranked 3rd all-time - seriously; Curtis Joseph > Dominik Hasek; Phil Housley > Mario Lemieux; Ryan Miller > Bobby Orr; Blake Wheeler > Peter Forsberg), so I'm not convinced that a few carefully selected examples "prove" how brilliant the formula is.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Overall the numbers are closer (McDavids rates are still higher) but for Crosby alot of it was his first few years outplaying McDavids first few. McDavid has been accending every year for the past 3 (untill whatever this slow start is)

Age 18-26 Overall PS /82

McDavid 14.4
Crosby 14.1

BUT, age 24-26

McDavid 17
Crosby 13

So McDavids rates will likely keep climbing for the next few years before the decline.

Doesn't look like it

 

[Windy River]

What’s ‘wrong’ with McDavid is that we’re seeing the tip of the “iceberg” that I’ve been stating for years IS lurking in the midst of his career. The thing with McDavid is that while being a very good player in his own right, what sets him apart and makes him the multiple Art Ross winning player that he is- is his absurd cheat-mode like speed and ability to handle the puck at that speed.

For those that follow combat sports (particularly boxing-where speed is king) one thing you learn is that speed is the first thing to go. Other skills stay in place, but everything does erode with age and it all starts with speed going first, often well before other skills, with power being last to go.

Hockey is no different, speed goes first. Most players can still have respectable late careers even after having lost a half-step. Their game just evolves a touch and they don’t try to force some of the rushes they would’ve in earlier years.

With McDavid- there’s nowhere to transition to. He cannot just tweak his game a bit when he starts to lose a step. His entire playing style is built around his phenom speed. Not to say McDavid will be ineffective- far from it. But my prediction is that he will degrade earlier and far steeper than most other elites- and we might just be seeing the leading edge of that already.

 

[42]

^ He's 26, not 62.

 

[crowfish]

Agreed. Point shares (although well intentioned) are a poorly designed metric. It truly seems like the creator doesn't understand some basic concepts about how hockey is played.

Here's a long thread where the design flaws are covered in detail: Point Shares? (Warning: Thread for stat dorks:)) - I challenge anyone to read that thread and still take point shares seriously.

It's true that you can cherry-pick a few reasonable-sounding results (Gretzky is 1st; Howe is in the top 4; Jagr, Ovechkin, Lidstrom and Roy are in the top 10). But there are tons of clearly illogical results (Roberto Luongo is ranked 3rd all-time - seriously; Curtis Joseph > Dominik Hasek; Phil Housley > Mario Lemieux; Ryan Miller > Bobby Orr; Blake Wheeler > Peter Forsberg), so I'm not convinced that a few carefully selected examples "prove" how brilliant the formula is.

Luongo played over 1000 games with .919 sv%, why wouldn't he have a massive point shares for that? Go look at how horrible the Florida teams he played for were and how good his stats were. Luongo is way better than the narratives around him were.

The top 10 won't be a perfect list of the best players because the stat is culmalitive... It is going to favour those who played longer careers, but that is exactly why I use PS per game (82 games for a easier number). The rate metric does a much better job of ranking the players. I only use it to compare the same positions, so I wouldn't use Luongos point shares to compare to Gretzky for example, or Gretzky to compare to Orr.

Btw on a per game basis these are the all time leaders at each position

D: Orr (by a mile)
G: Hasek (story checks out)
F: Lemieux (this would be Gretzky had Mario played a longer career with more time outside his prime imo)