What happens to Timo Meier now? (10M Qualifying Offer)

[Forge]

Devils have the cap room to bring him back.

Question is, and some organizations kind of do this, are they looking to make sure that their best player is setting the bar for contracts, or are they willing to exceed Jack's AAV to keep Meier??

I have no doubt the Devils are going to push hard to bring him back, but its got to make sense for them as well.

There was a rumor last year that they were hesitant to go above Jack's contract for other players, however that seems silly given that it was stated mere months after the Devils tried to throw gobs of money at Johnny Hockey lol. So I simply don't believe that, to be frank

 

[Detroit Knights]

Can't believe NJ will let him go. I think he extends

That don't have the cap to get him and the others that should be commanding around the same.

 

[Stephen]

There's no better way to spend that cap space. Devils will qualify him if absolutely necessary, but I believe both sides will reach agreement on a long term deal.

Your business, but I wouldn’t get caught up in the sunk cost of it. The clean cap is the best way to keep the momentum of the team moving forward and not throwing bodies overboard to make work.

 

[Detroit Knights]

I think Timo will get a slight premium just because he's more of a goal scorer and I believe that carries more weight in negotiations. Same bucket of overall production though.

If you're Timo's camp, you can just as easily throw Laine out as a comp as well, I think. Ultimately that's why I think it gets done at 8.25 - 8.5

Fiala is a really, really good baseline comp for the Bratt contract though. Maybe a slight uptick based on cap inflation but it should be pretty close.



I don't think so at all. It's a 12 game sample (11 for Timo).

I would love if Yzerman would crack a shot at this. He is literally the major missing piece we need.

We have the cap space and everything we need. 7 years x 9 mil is easily within reach. Even though Yzerman doesn't like to overpay, I think he would this offseason for him.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Your business, but I wouldn’t get caught up in the sunk cost of it. The clean cap is the best way to keep the momentum of the team moving forward and not throwing bodies overboard to make work.

It's not about sunk cost, it's about 10m in cap space being available to NJ, even if they sign Bratt on a long term deal, and wanting to deploy that cap space to improve the team. Not giving that money to Meier and instead signing a UFA would be a mistake there's no good UFAs. Also they wouldn't get a player in a cap dump trade nearly as good as Meier, what's the advantage of having 10m in cap space for one year if you are trying to win a cup?

Part of the reason the Devils made the trade imo is they knew they could eat the qualifying offer if necessary.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Why would he take a discount to play for a team he has no history with and was only a member for a few months? He can easily take 10M QO and put up another great year and then either be moved at the deadline again or get as many offers as he wants as a UFA.

He will argue he is the player he was outside of the adjustment period with the Devils. And if he wanted 9AAV with term why would he take less?

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

NJ will extend him hes an elite winger in hes prime

 

[Drury_Sakic]

Players tend to play it safe and just take whatever they can get when they can, injuries and all.

Devils advocate here - hah!

If he signed his QO, and had another good/great season, how much more is he worth with a cap that has increased 4-6 million -- and possibly another expansion team or two in the near future creating chances for teams to move contracts.

Granted that is a bet and a gamble. But does he turn from an 8.5-9 million per player to an 11-13? million dollar player with the cap increase and more teams potentially in on him?

 

[Captain Mountain]

I assume he'll get extend for 8 years in the high 8s to early mid 9s.

The whole point of QOs like his or DeBrincat's isn't to guarantee AAVs that high long term, its to give them similar leverage to UFAs before they would be UFA eligible. New Jersey will try to get the AAV down, but both sides know that Meier can just accept his massive QO and walk to free agency in a year (unless NJ decides to not qualify him for whatever reason, in which case he'd be a UFA now). He's getting paid either way, its up to New Jersey if they want to be the ones paying him or if they want to let someone else pay him. And I think they want to be the ones paying him.

 

[MasterofGrond]

Why would he take a discount to play for a team he has no history with and was only a member for a few months? He can easily take 10M QO and put up another great year and then either be moved at the deadline again or get as many offers as he wants as a UFA.

He will argue he is the player he was outside of the adjustment period with the Devils. And if he wanted 9AAV with term why would he take less?

Because taking a 10M offer and making 80M at best over 8 years probably isn’t worth the risk if he has a guaranteed offer for 68-72M on the table.

The downside risk is way bigger than the potential upside.

 

[Forge]

Why would he take a discount to play for a team he has no history with and was only a member for a few months? He can easily take 10M QO and put up another great year and then either be moved at the deadline again or get as many offers as he wants as a UFA.

He will argue he is the player he was outside of the adjustment period with the Devils. And if he wanted 9AAV with term why would he take less?

He's likely not going to get that 10 million. If contract talks are going sour, they'll take him to team selected arb, I'm sure. At that point there's no real reason not to. If they make him a legit long term offer, he'll take it I'm pretty sure. There's a lot more downside than upside

 

[ManofSteel55]

Even if his point totals weren't what the Devils had hoped for in the playoffs, Timo Meier is still one hell of a player. They shouldn't qualify him at 10M, but that doesn't mean they won't be able to extend him if they give him a very good, long-term offer. If they offer him 8 years and somewhere in between the rumoured 8M that the Devils have offered and the 9M that he wants, I would expect him to take it. He will get other offers, but also needs to remember that there aren't a ton of other teams that can afford a 9M contract, and I don't think any of the ones who can are on the verge of moving into contender status with only a couple of minor tweaks like the Devils are. The Devils are the best bet to get a long term deal that pays him well and sets him up to be on a good team for at least most of that contract. He should take it.

 

[Gurglesons]

He's likely not going to get that 10 million. If contract talks are going sour, they'll take him to team selected arb, I'm sure. At that point there's no real reason not to. If they make him a legit long term offer, he'll take it I'm pretty sure. There's a lot more downside than upside

I’m sure Timo is happy to take his arbitration award and put up big numbers on his way to UFA.

 

[Forge]

I’m sure Timo is happy to take his arbitration award and put up big numbers on his way to UFA.

It's gamble. If he's going to get 8.5 this year in arb and the team is offering 8 x 8.5, why wouldn't you just take the long term deal?

 

[ManofSteel55]

Why would he take a discount to play for a team he has no history with and was only a member for a few months? He can easily take 10M QO and put up another great year and then either be moved at the deadline again or get as many offers as he wants as a UFA.

He will argue he is the player he was outside of the adjustment period with the Devils. And if he wanted 9AAV with term why would he take less?

Because there is risk in taking a short-term deal. What if he gets seriously injured next year? What if he doesn't fit well on the new team he signs with, tanking his value for his contract negotiations a year from now? 72 M over the next 8 years is a lot better than 10M next year, and an 8 year contract signed next year if next years contract is significantly less. Look at Klingberg as an example, he had a good offer from Dallas, but took his agents advise instead and held out, now he got that one-year payday, underperformed, and isn't a high demand asset any longer.

 

[Gurglesons]

It's gamble. If he's going to get 8.5 this year in arb and the team is offering 8 x 8.5, why wouldn't you just take the long term deal?

Because the cap is going up allegedly next year?

We already saw this situation play out with Tkachuk. He got more than his QO on a big deal.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I’m sure Timo is happy to take his arbitration award and put up big numbers on his way to UFA.

This would only make sense for him if he really doesn't want to play for the Devils long term. He likely gets the same in arbitration on a one year deal that the Devils are offering him on a long term deal.

 

[Forge]

Because the cap is going up allegedly next year?

We already saw this situation play out with Tkachuk. He got more than his QO on a big deal.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Because the cap is going up allegedly next year?

We already saw this situation play out with Tkachuk. He got more than his QO on a big deal.

That's the gamble. Cost certainty of an 8 X 8.5M deal, vs either a potentially larger deal, or Klingberging himself and getting way less. Does he aim for as high as he can go? Or does he take the safe money? I don't think any of us can answer that.

 

[Gurglesons]

That's the gamble. Cost certainty of an 8 X 8.5M deal, vs either a potentially larger deal, or Klingberging himself and getting way less. Does he aim for as high as he can go? Or does he take the safe money? I don't think any of us can answer that.

I think if I’m guaranteed 10 mil and UFA as a rare piece like a 30+ goal scoring power forward I take the risk.

Not sure why I take a discount to a team I barely know who has endless cap space.

Also let’s factor in Ruff dropping Timo to L3 regularly.

 

[NJDevilsFan21]

Timo is 27 next season. He can take this arbitration and go for a higher AAV next contract, but I also believe he loses out on term. He's pretty much guaranteed an 8 year deal this summer. Next summer I think term will come at cost. The difference in after-tax income after this many years will end up being negligible. If he wants to stay I think he extends this summer for 8 x $8.25-$8.5M.

The age factor doesn't apply to Bratt, who is a few years younger.

 

[Captain Mountain]

He's likely not going to get that 10 million. If contract talks are going sour, they'll take him to team selected arb, I'm sure. At that point there's no real reason not to. If they make him a legit long term offer, he'll take it I'm pretty sure. There's a lot more downside than upside

There's lots of reasons not to. For one, Meier has been a Devil for a few months. They take him to club elected arbitration, the chances of him re-signing with them seems very low. Its also going to make it hard for them to trade him. Seems like a lot of risk to save 1.5 mil on the cap for a year.

 

[pld459666]

There was a rumor last year that they were hesitant to go above Jack's contract for other players, however that seems silly given that it was stated mere months after the Devils tried to throw gobs of money at Johnny Hockey lol. So I simply don't believe that, to be frank

Forgot about that attempt.

Johnny probably not thrilled with his decision now.

 

[Stephen]

It's not about sunk cost, it's about 10m in cap space being available to NJ, even if they sign Bratt on a long term deal, and wanting to deploy that cap space to improve the team. Not giving that money to Meier and instead signing a UFA would be a mistake there's no good UFAs. Also they wouldn't get a player in a cap dump trade nearly as good as Meier, what's the advantage of having 10m in cap space for one year if you are trying to win a cup?

Part of the reason the Devils made the trade imo is they knew they could eat the qualifying offer if necessary.

Whatever you think is best. All I’m saying is a Timo Meier based cap hell scenario could also be avoided to keep things flexible for NJ’s upward climb over the next few years. If he’s your best and favourite option, must have piece, by all means. I’m not going to argue that.

 

[Forge]

Players tend to play it safe and just take whatever they can get when they can, injuries and all.

Devils advocate here - hah!

If he signed his QO, and had another good/great season, how much more is he worth with a cap that has increased 4-6 million -- and possibly another expansion team or two in the near future creating chances for teams to move contracts.

Granted that is a bet and a gamble. But does he turn from an 8.5-9 million per player to an 11-13? million dollar player with the cap increase and more teams potentially in on him?

I don't believe the jump is that great....and that's even assuming that the cap has a big jump. That's its own risk. But that's really a lot of assumption no matter what.

There's lots of reasons not to. For one, Meier has been a Devil for a few months. They take him to club elected arbitration, the chances of him re-signing with them seems very low. Its also going to make it hard for them to trade him. Seems like a lot of risk to save 1.5 mil on the cap for a year.

How does it make him any harder to trade than if he's just taking his qualifying offer at 10 m? Confused by that comment.

And I assume that if they take him to club selected arb, its because they contract talks aren't going well as it is, so there's nothing lost at that point.