On paper he looks like one of those boring "low impact" college starters...but a potential plus-plus changeup, above-average command, and a fastball that apparently grades well analytically from a LHP profile makes me hesitant to write him off because that could legitimately produce a high-impact starter if his breaking ball improves at all.
He's drawing some comparisons to Reid Detmers from last year's draft: another "boring" advanced/safe college LHP who's currently tearing through AA. If you remember Detmers, he was the guy in last year's draft who I'm pretty sure no teams' fans "wanted" despite the fact that he was a consensus ~Top 12 talent.
On paper and on video I would argue. I'm just not feeling it. I'm also leery of guys from colleges with no record of ever producing an MLB player, it's not dispositive, but its another variable to consider, so I'm glad Fangraphs doesn't usually have inside info anymore since Kiley left.
I wouldn't compare him to Detmers at all. I was high on Detmers even a year ahead of last years draft (the receipts are easy to find). Same with Ethan Small, who has similarly unspectacular stuff but has incredible deception that makes hitters look silly. Completely different pitchers imo. I would have to see the data on Wick's fastball to believe it cause it looks highly hittable from the games I've seen. I was hoping he might back it up with an nasty Alex Claudio/Johan Santana level bugs-bunny change up, but the change lacks all the components of an elite changeup for me (velocity differential, deception, movement). It has the first two well enough, and maybe it shows flashes of all three to give it a plus-plus grade, but I'm just saying I haven't seen it yet.
That looks like the exact type of player that a team like the Cardinals drafts who ends up a 2-3+ WAR pitcher, and not surprisingly I'm pretty sure he's one of the players they're considering at #18.
From a fan perspective, nothing in amateur scouting is harder to me than NOT writing off guys like this because they don't "pop" from an immediate scouting standpoint.
Who is this hypothetical Cardinals player you're referring to? I don't see anyone on their roster or system that profiles like Wicks. The closest I can think of is Zack Thompson, but only because they're both lefties. Other than that they're not at all that similar. Thompson was an upside play, not a safe pick. The Jays were considering him before taking Manoah, due to Thompson's health concerns. But the stuff was at least mid-rotation quality.
I'm not saying Wicks is going to suck or that he won't make the majors. I can see him carving out a career in the same way Marco Gonzales or Cole Irvin has. Heck, he could turn out to be Buehrle or Dallas Keuchal but there's a reason only one of those guys was picked in the 1st round. If the option was Wicks vs Wicks then fine, but I prefer other players ahead of him on the board, and if I don't state as much right now, and pay lip service to wanting the pick, people will just say I didn't like the pick in retrospect if he goes the way of a Zeuch, Harris, Jenkins, Deck (fwiw I was very pleased about the Chad Jenkins pick, but I was also very young).
