Seravalli: Vegas and Buffalo working on framework of Eichel trade

[TheNumber4]

Bad return? Thats at least 2 1sts in prospect value, + Tuch who is worth more than a 1st + an actual 1st

From my view, It’s essentially 3 late firsts and a good roster player. Late firsts are like a 50% success rate to be an NHLer. But likely not a great or elite NHL player. So 3 late firsts equal 1.5 roster playerish.

Call it two roster players and a bit for Eichel… I wouldn’t be happy as a Sabres fan but I can’t speak for them.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Monahan has sucked balls for a long while now with nearly zero signs he’s going to recover. Even when he was “good” he was a big meh being propped up by Johnny. If Monahan is the main piece in this, Buffalo gets taken to the woodshed.

Ok first off, Monahan is not the main piece, he is there because the salary cap exists and he can very likely be flipped to another team (in a 3-way deal or not) for more assets.

Secondly, he has not "sucked balls" he was injured for all but 6 games last year. He got surgery this summer and wasn't cleared to play until a week before the season started, meaning he missed all but 2 of the preseason games. Even then players get cleared to play well before they are back to 100%, an excellent example of this is Zibanejad recovering from Covid last year. He had 2 goals and 7 points in the first 20 games of the season and then 11 goals and 24 points in the next 20 games. Monahan started the season slow, as expected but in the last few games has definitely returned to form and has 3 points in the 2.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

From my view, It’s essentially 3 late firsts and a good roster player. Late firsts are like a 50% success rate to be an NHLer. But likely not a great or elite NHL player. So 3 late firsts equal 1.5 roster playerish.

Call it two roster players and a bit for Eichel… I wouldn’t be happy as a Sabres fan but I can’t speak for them.

Were you expecting a top 10 pick? Nobody was ever offering that.

 

[TheNumber4]

Ok first off, Monahan is not the main piece, he is there because the salary cap exists and he can very likely be flipped to another team (in a 3-way deal or not) for more assets.

Secondly, he has not "sucked balls" he was injured for all but 6 games last year. He got surgery this summer and wasn't cleared to play until a week before the season started, meaning he missed all but 2 of the preseason games. Even then players get cleared to play well before they are back to 100%, an excellent example of this is Zibanejad recovering from Covid last year. He had 2 goals and 7 points in the first 20 games of the season and then 11 goals and 24 points in the next 20 games. Monahan started the season slow, as expected but in the last few games has definitely returned to form and has 3 points in the 2.

If he’s a cap throw in it makes sense. He’s not close to Zibenejad though. And yeh he kinda sucks, but maybe balls was a bit far.

 

[HoseEmDown]

OEL was already on AZ’s books. They had an incentive to move him and got a solid return. Thats a completely different situation then if Arizona had retained on OEL as the 3rd party in a trade of between two other teams.

I agree Schmaltz’s contract is less then ideal. Still, if you’re a rebuilding team like the Coyotes taking on a 5 years of dead untradeable cap and ~$10m in cash payments to get rid of Schmatlz is not the ideal strategy. You’re trying to take on shorter term negative assets to facilitate any moves.

Schmaltz is on the books and if he keeps playing like he has been they'll have an incentive to move him. Plus the return on OEL wasn't very good, all the good pieces were really for Garland. Maybe the 2nd round pick was for OEL.

The thing with the Coyotes not being competitive anytime soon should make them more willing to retain. That 2M isn't going to hurt them in the least and since they'll be bad, saving actual cash over the next 5 years will help when they won't be putting many fans in the seats. I just think Schmaltz contract is just not a good one to keep around and will become harder to trade as it goes on because of the back loaded cash.

I get the not wanting to waste a retention spot but they only have one left anyway. So one of Kessel or Stralman wouldn't get retained anyway. They may have to sacrifice a little draft capital to get a 3rd team at the deadline but they have plenty of 1sts and 2nd's this year, getting a few 3rds isn't going to be a problem. Next year the only player looking likely to be retained would be Ghostisbhere so they have that slot still. And then the last couple of years they don't have anything yet that would looked to need retention.

 

[Fjordy]

“Eichel for Krebs, Tuch, Brisson OR Coghlan, and a conditional 1st based on Eichel’s playing time/availability”

Does that rumour have any legitimacy? If so, that’s one bad return for Eichel. Adam’s needs to get more.

Bad return? As a Buffalo fan, I would love to have such a return.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

If he’s a cap throw in it makes sense. He’s not close to Zibenejad though. And yeh he kinda sucks, but maybe balls was a bit far.

He's a "cap throw in" in the same essence that JT. Miller was a "cap dump" to Vancouver.

I'm not saying he is the same level as Zibanejad, I was using Zib as an example of someone who was playing while still recovering but did return to form.

Your opinion on Monahan as a player in general is well just your opinion, really don't want to debate that with an Oilers fan since it's pretty pointless.

 

[TheNumber4]

Bad return? As a Buffalo fan, I would love to have such a return.

To each his own, and I haven’t lived through what you did in this whole Eichel saga. But a franchise Centerman for 2 good rosters players (Tuch plus 2 late 1sts) and another late 1st isn’t what I’d call a good return. The value of a franchise centerman is immense and essentially impossible to get on the trade market.

 

[TheNumber4]

He's a "cap throw in" in the same essence that JT. Miller was a "cap dump" to Vancouver.

I'm not saying he is the same level as Zibanejad, I was using Zib as an example of someone who was playing while still recovering but did return to form.

Your opinion on Monahan as a player in general is well just your opinion, really don't want to debate that with an Oilers fan since it's pretty pointless.

Well he wasn’t great pre-injury either and was always a product of Johnny. I agree though it’s pointless for this Eichel debate for us to go into BoA related bantering. Thats why I kept it short and sweet. Let’s agree to disagree.

 

[Fjordy]

To each his own, and I haven’t lived through what you did in this whole Eichel saga. But a franchise Centerman for 2 good rosters players (Tuch plus w late 1sts) and another late 1st isn’t what I’d call a good return. The value of a franchise centerman is immense and essentially impossible to get on the trade market.

Depends on what you know about these prospects and how you value them. Eichel is definitely an elite 1C, but he has not played hockey for eight months and wants to do an experimental surgery for this sport. Will he be the same? Who knows.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Schmaltz is on the books and if he keeps playing like he has been they'll have an incentive to move him. Plus the return on OEL wasn't very good, all the good pieces were really for Garland. Maybe the 2nd round pick was for OEL.

Garland by himself was definitely not returning 9th OA as a 25 year old pending RFA with arbitration rights. Your favourite team (Tampa) traded Miller at age 25 (who is definitely a better player and more rounded) for the 20th OA and 71st OA picks. Why would Garland get a better return than that?

 

[TheNumber4]

Depends on what you know about these prospects and how you value them. Eichel is definitely an elite 1C, but he has not played hockey for eight months and wants to do an experimental surgery for this sport. Will he be the same? Who knows.

Admittedly I don’t know much about the prospects on offer but the picks they were chosen at is usually a pretty good proxy to go by and can be valued with previously done statistical work. Drafts are crap shoot, and many NHL hired GMs and scouts been confident in their assessments only to be proven wrong. So best to just look at the value of those draft positions and evaluate from there… otherwise you may fall in love with a prospect irrationally and value the trade entirely wrong.

I also think the worries about Eichels surgery are way over blown. Obviously Eichel and his team will do what’s best for his health and career. Vegas and Flames will do their due diligence as well. Doctors support it and there’s history of success for that type of surgery outside the world of hockey.

 

[mouser]

Schmaltz is on the books and if he keeps playing like he has been they'll have an incentive to move him. Plus the return on OEL wasn't very good, all the good pieces were really for Garland. Maybe the 2nd round pick was for OEL.

The thing with the Coyotes not being competitive anytime soon should make them more willing to retain. That 2M isn't going to hurt them in the least and since they'll be bad, saving actual cash over the next 5 years will help when they won't be putting many fans in the seats. I just think Schmaltz contract is just not a good one to keep around and will become harder to trade as it goes on because of the back loaded cash.

I get the not wanting to waste a retention spot but they only have one left anyway. So one of Kessel or Stralman wouldn't get retained anyway. They may have to sacrifice a little draft capital to get a 3rd team at the deadline but they have plenty of 1sts and 2nd's this year, getting a few 3rds isn't going to be a problem. Next year the only player looking likely to be retained would be Ghostisbhere so they have that slot still. And then the last couple of years they don't have anything yet that would looked to need retention.

The Coyotes not being competitive should make them less willing to retain 5 years. They already have 6 years to go on OEL.

Having 1 retention slot in 2021-22 and 2 retention slots available for the trade deadlines in 2022-23, 2023-2024, 2024-2025, 2025-2026 holds far more value to a rebuilding team like Arizona then burning 5 years on a retention slot to dump Schmaltz.

 

[Fjordy]

Admittedly I don’t know much about the prospects on offer but the picks they were chosen at is usually a pretty good proxy to go by and can be valued with previously done statistical work. Drafts are crap shoot, and many NHL hired GMs and scouts been confident in their assessments only to be proven wrong. So best to just look at the value of those draft positions and evaluate from there… otherwise you may fall in love with a prospect irrationally and value the trade entirely wrong.

I also think the worries about Eichels surgery are way over blown. Obviously Eichel and his team will do what’s best for his health and career. Vegas and Flames will do their due diligence as well. Doctors support it and there’s history of success for that type of surgery outside the world of hockey.

I don't think that when they were chosen it always makes a huge difference. Krebs would probably have been selected in the top 10 if he hadn't been injured before the draft. Brisson looks good in Michigan.

Even as an example. We picked Peterka in the second round, but he looks like a player in the range #10 - #20.
#39 - Jason Robertson
#19 - Josh Norris
#13 - Nick Suzuki
#12 - Martin Necas
#14 - Joel Farabee

Teams simply won't be willing to take that risk and pay the price of Eichel as healthy and in need of neck surgery. I understand them.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Garland by himself was definitely not returning 9th OA as a 25 year old pending RFA with arbitration rights. Your favourite team (Tampa) traded Miller at age 25 (who is definitely a better player and more rounded) for the 20th OA and 71st OA picks. Why would Garland get a better return than that?

I don't think Miller was better than Garland was the year they were traded. Miller was healthy scratched a couple of games as well as playing a lot in the bottom 6. He had more potential but was kinda stagnating and not living up to that potential. While Garland didn't have as high potential he was at least playing at a higher level. Also Tampa needed to dump cap so they couldn't be too demanding with their ask. The pick ended up being 20th but could have been the 9th overall that Garland went for if the Canucks missed the playoffs in 19-20.

 

[HoseEmDown]

The Coyotes not being competitive should make them less willing to retain 5 years. They already have 6 years to go on OEL.

Having 1 retention slot in 2021-22 and 2 retention slots available for the trade deadlines in 2022-23, 2023-2024, 2024-2025, 2025-2026 holds far more value to a rebuilding team like Arizona then burning 5 years on a retention slot to dump Schmaltz.

I'd rather retain 2M for 5 years than pay Schmaltz nearly 6M in cap and 30M in cash the next 5 years. Sure Schmaltz could rebound and be somewhat useful for that money while the retention is what it is but I just think that Schmaltz contract isn't a good one.

I would assume by the 4th and 5th year they are trying to be competitive and aren't still trying to retain to get better futures. So really it just messes them up one or two years. Hell you can get Vegas or Buffalo to throw you a pick which you might lose by not being able to retain if it makes you feel better.

 

[Kalv]

“Eichel for Krebs, Tuch, Brisson OR Coghlan, and a conditional 1st based on Eichel’s playing time/availability”

Does that rumour have any legitimacy? If so, that’s one bad return for Eichel. Adam’s needs to get more.

It is not a supermarket where you can go and pick up things you like. This is a free market - whoever is ready to pay the most and obviously other teams have not been ready to do that, that's why the big standoff.

We all tried to warn quite a large bunch of Buffalo fans about this in the summer when they said they wouldn't pick this or that because they would just trade to Ducks for Zegras, lol. It takes two to tango.

 

[PeteEakins]

What’s the return for a “once-in-a-generation” franchise player? At the very least, I think Buffalo would ask for: 1) Young first liner/ first pairing player; 2) Young Top 6, middle pairing player; 3) Top prospects; 4) Reclamation project with upside; 5) 2 1st round picks. With this framework:

To BUFFALO:
Shea Theodore ($5,200,000)
Alex Tuch ($4,750,000)
Peyton Krebs ($864,000)
Nolan Patrick ($1,200,000)
2 1st round picks (20-30th overall)

MONEY IN: $12,013,000
MONEY OUT: $12,250,000

TO LAS VEGAS
Jack Eichel ($10,000,000)
Cody Eakin ($2,250,000)

BUFFALO NEW ROSTER
Skinner Middlestadt TUCH
Hinostroza Thompson Okposo
KREBS Cozens PATRICK
Cagguila Girgensons Bjork

THEODORE Butcher
Dahlin Miller
Bryson Hagg

Anderson
Tokarski

NEW VEGAS ROSTER
Marchessault EICHEL Stone
Pacioretty Karlsson Dadonov
Janmark Stephenson Smith
Carrier EAKIN Howden

Hague Pietrangelo
Martinez Coghlan
McNabb Whitecloud

Lehner
Brossoit

NOTES
- Buffalo’s forward group looks a little more balanced
- Their defense is stronger. With Theodore, everyone falls into place. Dahlin can develop properly.
- Eakin is added as a Center until Eichel returns. Eakin has a great history performing well with Vegas.
- Vegas’ forward group is insanely deep. Eichel gives them a legitimate superstar.
- Their defense takes a small hit, but the can withstand it.

*NOTE: I’ve seen a lot of proposals. You gotta remember Eichel is getting paid $10 million. The money has to work. You can’t just trade Tuch. That’s only halfway there. You need to trade another $5 million the other way to make it work. I’m going to get ridiculed for this deal, but YOU try making the money and value align. It’s difficult.

 

[centipede2233]

What’s the return for a “once-in-a-generation” franchise player? At the very least, I think Buffalo would ask for: 1) Young first liner/ first pairing player; 2) Young Top 6, middle pairing player; 3) Top prospects; 4) Reclamation project with upside; 5) 2 1st round picks. With this framework:

To BUFFALO:
Shea Theodore ($5,200,000)
Alex Tuch ($4,750,000)
Peyton Krebs ($864,000)
Nolan Patrick ($1,200,000)
2 1st round picks (20-30th overall)

MONEY IN: $12,013,000
MONEY OUT: $12,250,000

TO LAS VEGAS;
Jack Eichel ($10,000,000)
Cody Eakin ($2,250,000)

BUFFALO NEW ROSTER
Skinner Middlestadt TUCH
Hinostroza Thompson Okposo
KREBS Cozens PATRICK
Cagguila Girgensons Bjork

THEODORE Butcher
Dahlin Miller
Bryson Hagg

Anderson
Tokarski

NEW VEGAS ROSTER
Marchessault EICHEL Stone
Pacioretty Karlsson Dadonov
Janmark Stephenson Smith
Carrier EAKIN Howden

Hague Pietrangelo
Martinez Coghlan
McNabb Whitecloud

Lehner
Brossoit

NOTES
- Buffalo’s forward group looks a little more balanced
- Their defense is stronger. With Theodore, everyone falls into place. Dahlin can develop properly.
- Eakin is added as a Center until Eichel returns. Eakin has a great history performing well with Vegas.
- Vegas’ forward group is insanely deep. Eichel gives them a legitimate superstar.
- Their defense takes a small hit, but the can withstand it.

You are living in a dream world if you think eichel gets that package. In fact, I wouldn’t even trade Theodore straight up for eichel. Kids, don’t do drugs

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

What’s the return for a “once-in-a-generation” franchise player? At the very least, I think Buffalo would ask for: 1) Young first liner/ first pairing player; 2) Young Top 6, middle pairing player; 3) Top prospects; 4) Reclamation project with upside; 5) 2 1st round picks. With this framework:

To BUFFALO:
Shea Theodore ($5,200,000)
Alex Tuch ($4,750,000)
Peyton Krebs ($864,000)
Nolan Patrick ($1,200,000)
2 1st round picks (20-30th overall)

MONEY IN: $12,013,000
MONEY OUT: $12,250,000

TO LAS VEGAS
Jack Eichel ($10,000,000)
Cody Eakin ($2,250,000)

BUFFALO NEW ROSTER
Skinner Middlestadt TUCH
Hinostroza Thompson Okposo
KREBS Cozens PATRICK
Cagguila Girgensons Bjork

THEODORE Butcher
Dahlin Miller
Bryson Hagg

Anderson
Tokarski

NEW VEGAS ROSTER
Marchessault EICHEL Stone
Pacioretty Karlsson Dadonov
Janmark Stephenson Smith
Carrier EAKIN Howden

Hague Pietrangelo
Martinez Coghlan
McNabb Whitecloud

Lehner
Brossoit

NOTES
- Buffalo’s forward group looks a little more balanced
- Their defense is stronger. With Theodore, everyone falls into place. Dahlin can develop properly.
- Eakin is added as a Center until Eichel returns. Eakin has a great history performing well with Vegas.
- Vegas’ forward group is insanely deep. Eichel gives them a legitimate superstar.
- Their defense takes a small hit, but the can withstand it.

*NOTE: I’ve seen a lot of proposals. You gotta remember Eichel is getting paid $10 million. The money has to work. You can’t just trade Tuch. That’s only halfway there. You need to trade another $5 million the other way to make it work. I’m going to get ridiculed for this deal, but YOU try making the money and value align. It’s difficult.

People still think they are getting a Norris candidate locked up long term just over 5M? Is Buffalo adding Power? Not sure how many times it has to be said that Theodore is currently worth more than Eichel by himself. Remove Shea from the deal entirely and your proposal is somewhat reasonable

 

[ujju2]

What’s the return for a “once-in-a-generation” franchise player?

Doesn't matter because Eichel is not that. Not only are there serious injury concerns, but there are also many players of his generation that are simply better than him, hence "once-in-a-generation" does not apply.

 

[hangman005]

Not getting that much especially if we have take back Eakin.

 

[Uncle]

What’s the return for a “once-in-a-generation” franchise player? At the very least, I think Buffalo would ask for: 1) Young first liner/ first pairing player; 2) Young Top 6, middle pairing player; 3) Top prospects; 4) Reclamation project with upside; 5) 2 1st round picks. With this framework:

To BUFFALO:
Shea Theodore ($5,200,000)
Alex Tuch ($4,750,000)
Peyton Krebs ($864,000)
Nolan Patrick ($1,200,000)
2 1st round picks (20-30th overall)

MONEY IN: $12,013,000
MONEY OUT: $12,250,000

TO LAS VEGAS
Jack Eichel ($10,000,000)
Cody Eakin ($2,250,000)

BUFFALO NEW ROSTER
Skinner Middlestadt TUCH
Hinostroza Thompson Okposo
KREBS Cozens PATRICK
Cagguila Girgensons Bjork

THEODORE Butcher
Dahlin Miller
Bryson Hagg

Anderson
Tokarski

NEW VEGAS ROSTER
Marchessault EICHEL Stone
Pacioretty Karlsson Dadonov
Janmark Stephenson Smith
Carrier EAKIN Howden

Hague Pietrangelo
Martinez Coghlan
McNabb Whitecloud

Lehner
Brossoit

NOTES
- Buffalo’s forward group looks a little more balanced
- Their defense is stronger. With Theodore, everyone falls into place. Dahlin can develop properly.
- Eakin is added as a Center until Eichel returns. Eakin has a great history performing well with Vegas.
- Vegas’ forward group is insanely deep. Eichel gives them a legitimate superstar.
- Their defense takes a small hit, but the can withstand it.

*NOTE: I’ve seen a lot of proposals. You gotta remember Eichel is getting paid $10 million. The money has to work. You can’t just trade Tuch. That’s only halfway there. You need to trade another $5 million the other way to make it work. I’m going to get ridiculed for this deal, but YOU try making the money and value align. It’s difficult.

Holy moly, I haven’t been following along with this too closely but that looks like waAaayy too much for eichel… thats effectively 6 first round picks…

 

[TheGroceryStick]

If people think the return will be anywhere near that value posted; they need to take long look at themselves.

VGK may be decimated by injury and eager to add, but no way they pony up anything more than a 'soft' deal for current state Eichel.

 

[Fjordy]

What’s the return for a “once-in-a-generation” franchise player? At the very least, I think Buffalo would ask for: 1) Young first liner/ first pairing player; 2) Young Top 6, middle pairing player; 3) Top prospects; 4) Reclamation project with upside; 5) 2 1st round picks. With this framework:

To BUFFALO:
Shea Theodore ($5,200,000)
Alex Tuch ($4,750,000)
Peyton Krebs ($864,000)
Nolan Patrick ($1,200,000)
2 1st round picks (20-30th overall)

MONEY IN: $12,013,000
MONEY OUT: $12,250,000

TO LAS VEGAS
Jack Eichel ($10,000,000)
Cody Eakin ($2,250,000)

BUFFALO NEW ROSTER
Skinner Middlestadt TUCH
Hinostroza Thompson Okposo
KREBS Cozens PATRICK
Cagguila Girgensons Bjork

THEODORE Butcher
Dahlin Miller
Bryson Hagg

Anderson
Tokarski

NEW VEGAS ROSTER
Marchessault EICHEL Stone
Pacioretty Karlsson Dadonov
Janmark Stephenson Smith
Carrier EAKIN Howden

Hague Pietrangelo
Martinez Coghlan
McNabb Whitecloud

Lehner
Brossoit

NOTES
- Buffalo’s forward group looks a little more balanced
- Their defense is stronger. With Theodore, everyone falls into place. Dahlin can develop properly.
- Eakin is added as a Center until Eichel returns. Eakin has a great history performing well with Vegas.
- Vegas’ forward group is insanely deep. Eichel gives them a legitimate superstar.
- Their defense takes a small hit, but the can withstand it.

*NOTE: I’ve seen a lot of proposals. You gotta remember Eichel is getting paid $10 million. The money has to work. You can’t just trade Tuch. That’s only halfway there. You need to trade another $5 million the other way to make it work. I’m going to get ridiculed for this deal, but YOU try making the money and value align. It’s difficult.

Yeah, Cody Eakin balances the deal well.