Confirmed Trade: [VAN/CGY] Elias Lindholm for Andrei Kuzmenko, Hunter Brzustewicz, Joni Jurmo, 2024 1st, cond. 2024 4th

[The Old Master]

i guess we can take Vancouver off the market for jake.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Markstrom is going to ask for a trade once Hanifin and Tanev are gone. I think the Flames fall into a bottom 5 finish

I doubt it. I get the impression he is pretty content on staying where he is. He has a 1 year old now (11 months technically). I don't see him uprooted his family to chase a cup at this point in time.

Falling into the bottom 5 will be hard as they are so far behind us at the moment, but we are definitely going to see less scoring from Sharangovich and the Kadri line. Lindholm did a lot of heavy lifting in terms of opponent match ups. Kadri's line was pretty much always deployed against 3rd and 4th liners

 

[Johnsie19]

Lindholm is absolutely a better all around player than Horvat, he just isn't riding a ridiculous 21.7% shooting percentage, instead it's the exact opposite as Lindholm is at a 6.8% shooting percentage this season. Even if Horvat is a better offensive player (debatable), Lindholm is a far superior 200 ft player.

It's worth noting that they haven't committed to extending him yet either, but overall Lindholm will likely be a better fit and I think he will have similar synergy with EP40 as he did with Gaudreau

Looking into the numbers. Horvat is a slightly worse defensive player and significantly better offensive player.

In response to the person you responded to though, the Canucks can easily rent Lindholm at the price they paid. The brilliant part is they got out from 5.5 mil in cap committed to Kuzmenko for next yr so they could decide to sign a different UFA.

I wouldn't wanna give Lindholm over 5 yrs though. And he will rightly demand 7 or 8 yrs as this is his last big contract.

 

[Tact]

i guess we can take Vancouver off the market for jake.

Is he even available?

 

[Regal]

i guess we can take Vancouver off the market for jake.

It’s Rutherford so maybe not

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Vancouver pays through the nose. They must really think they have a legit Cup chance.

A late 1st, b propsect, d prospect, a cap dump and 4th rounder is paying through the nose? LOL it never ceases to amaze me how clueless people are on this forum.

 

[SensontheRush]

Seems like an incredible trade for CGY IMO. Kuzmenko being a "throw-in" is insane. Can't argue against Tocchet's results, but it is a huge blunder to coach a guy of this skill level out the door.

 

[RichLittle]

Guys with Lidholm's stat line usually get a 3rd or maybe 2nd rd pick. Vancouver paid a lot for intangibles and previous glory attributed to Gaudreau and Tkachuk. His playoff performance as a top line C is evident in the Flames "success" as first round fodder.
9 goals and that's in a UFA year, not ideal. Not sure if he really moves the needle for Vancouver.
What about chemistry, a team that's flying high took on a huge risk on a guy that only worked with a magician like Gauderau. What if he turns Petterson into another Huberdeau? I know, extreme case, but chemistry is a funny thing.
Don't like it for Vancouver. A great team like this with such tight chemistry shouldn't gamble like this. Status Quo would have been better.

 

[DFF]

Kuz was great playing losing pond hockey. Lots of skill, great guy, not interested in forechecking or backchecking. Lindholm is a solid right handed face off guy who excels playing with other good players. He will be playing with Pettersson, he will be just fine.


Kuzmenko wouldn't have seen the ice with Sutter coaching. You're stuck comparing apples to tires.

I am not comparing them. They are not remotely close

 

[DearDiary]

i guess we can take Vancouver off the market for jake.

I don't think Guentzal is even available. If he was, he would get a massive return for the Pens considering his playoff reputation and overall stats. The Canucks top prospects would definitely have been in the trade. Lindholm makes more sense if they plan to run him as a 2C, but they still overpaid for him. But all that matters is that it filled a need for them.

 

[Tact]

If Guentzel was even available, management would have targeted him? There’s no way JR and PA are waiting around for Dubas and Guentzel to make a decision. They better hurry fast if they even think there’s a potential trade.

 

[Double Dion]

Actually you had Brew in a lesser tier and had a ridiculous proposal which I said was way off and it was.
Don't pretend you didn't expect Lekkerimakki and one of Brew plus a a 1st.

I didn't. The proposal I had made was one of Lekkerimakki or Willander and a 1st with a short term cap dump coming to us and Lindholm at 50%. The other proposal I made was a 1st, Bru, and either Pod or a 2nd and a short term cap dump to us for Lindholm at 50%. We basically got what I was hoping for without retention if you consider the conditional pick and the Finn equal to a 2nd.

 

[timw33]

Seems like an incredible trade for CGY IMO. Kuzmenko being a "throw-in" is insane. Can't argue against Tocchet's results, but it is a huge blunder to coach a guy of this skill level out the door.

Kuzmenko thrived under run and gun Boudreau garbage hockey being forcefed premium minutes with Pettersson and 70%+ PP deployment.

The minute they brought in a real coach (Tocchet) who enacted a new system that involved playing defence and backchecking which has incidentally led to sustainable success for the first time in a decade, Kuzmenko's game imploded.

It's not even a blunder by the coach, he forcefed PP1 time and chained him to Pettersson and the other good players on this roster and he just couldn't keep up or produce, even at a pretty normal 12% shooting clip (less than half the previous year).

I think he'll do better in CGY with less expectations and likely way more of a leash to get production that can lead to him being a trade piece next year based on counting stats alone, but even last year when he was on a 40 goal pace @ $900k teams weren't busting down the door trying to hand out 1st round picks to get this guy because they saw the overall flaws in his game and didn't feel he would be be able to carry that success into tight checking playoff games.

 

[bossram]

This makes for an excellent natural experiment into whether the Canucks system actually promotes high shooting percentage.

I think it does. Their time-of-puck-possession relative to their shot attempts, or shot attempts relative to their scoring chances ratios are quite skewed. They seem to forgo bad shots, hold the puck, and wait for better chances.

I don't think this leads to a 13% team shooting percentage (which would be the highest recorded for a full season in the cap era), but elevated above average.

Anyway, Lindholm is shooting 6% right now. That's going to come up regardless of whether anything else above is true. I think we're confident he's not a true talent league-worst finisher.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Seems like an incredible trade for CGY IMO. Kuzmenko being a "throw-in" is insane. Can't argue against Tocchet's results, but it is a huge blunder to coach a guy of this skill level out the door.

A coach expecting a player to buy into a system (that works), he was a flash in the pan last year in a system that put us in the basement as a team. If your blaming the coach for Kuz sucking this year, you don't understand hockey.

 

[Bond]

I doubt it. I get the impression he is pretty content on staying where he is. He has a 1 year old now (11 months technically). I don't see him uprooted his family to chase a cup at this point in time.

Falling into the bottom 5 will be hard as they are so far behind us at the moment, but we are definitely going to see less scoring from Sharangovich and the Kadri line. Lindholm did a lot of heavy lifting in terms of opponent match ups. Kadri's line was pretty much always deployed against 3rd and 4th liners

The defense will have Oesterle playing top 4 minutes. I think the Flames are going to fall hard once they have three #7 Dmen getting regular minutes.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Kuzmenko thrived under run and gun Boudreau garbage hockey being forcefed premium minutes with Pettersson and 70%+ PP deployment.

The minute they brought in a real coach (Tocchet) who enacted a new system that involved playing defence and backchecking which has incidentally led to sustainable success for the first time in a decade, Kuzmenko's game imploded.

It's not even a blunder by the coach, he forcefed PP1 time and chained him to Pettersson and the other good players on this roster and he just couldn't keep up or produce, even at a pretty normal 12% shooting clip (less than half the previous year).

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Looking into the numbers. Horvat is a slightly worse defensive player and significantly better offensive player.

In response to the person you responded to though, the Canucks can easily rent Lindholm at the price they paid. The brilliant part is they got out from 5.5 mil in cap committed to Kuzmenko for next yr so they could decide to sign a different UFA.

I wouldn't wanna give Lindholm over 5 yrs though. And he will rightly demand 7 or 8 yrs as this is his last big contract.

Look at the numbers? Lindholm's "numbers" are based entirely off of him playing with scrubs and middle 6 guys.

Horvat played significant minutes with Miller and one of Boeser/Garland last year. Those are vastly superior linemates than Lindholm did last year or this year. Even then of his 31 goals and 54 points, only 16 goals and 30 points came at even strength. Besides that he had 10 goals and 17 points on the powerplay, plus 1 goal and 2 points short handed. That leaves 3 goals and 5 points on empty nets.

Lindholm is probably going to be deployed at center for Pettersson and on the first powerplay unit too. There are 33 games left for the Nucks this year, I would not be surprised at all if he gets 45 points in that time.

 

[blankall]

Markstrom is going to ask for a trade once Hanifin and Tanev are gone. I think the Flames fall into a bottom 5 finish

Breaking that bottom 5 is tough. I'd like to see it though. If you're going rebuild, do it right. Probably too late for a bottom 3 pick. Apparently the team is shopping Markstrom, but won't move him unless it's for a solid package. Then Markstrom has to approve the deal.

Look at the numbers? Lindholm's "numbers" are based entirely off of him playing with scrubs and middle 6 guys.

Horvat played significant minutes with Miller and one of Boeser/Garland last year. Those are vastly superior linemates than Lindholm did last year or this year. Even then of his 31 goals and 54 points, only 16 goals and 30 points came at even strength. Besides that he had 10 goals and 17 points on the powerplay, plus 1 goal and 2 points short handed. That leaves 3 goals and 5 points on empty nets.

Lindholm is probably going to be deployed at center for Pettersson and on the first powerplay unit too. There are 33 games left for the Nucks this year, I would not be surprised at all if he gets 45 points in that time.

His numbers are likely to improve, especially if he has chemistry with Pettersson. 45 points in 33 games is optimistic though. I see him returning to a 35 goal and 70 point pace though.

 

[StreetHawk]

I think he'll do better in CGY with less expectations and likely way more of a leash to get production that can lead to him being a trade piece next year based on counting stats alone, but even last year when he was on a 40 goal pace @ $900k teams weren't busting down the door trying to hand out 1st round picks to get this guy because they saw the overall flaws in his game and didn't feel he would be be able to carry that success into tight checking playoff games.

Kuz probably best fit for a non playoff team to a bubble team with his current style. PO teams want a more responsible 200 foot game, which Tocchet was trying to get Kuz to play.

Agree that he'll be fine in Calgary, but if he's not long for Calgary, probably best to be an off-season move as I don't see him being a target of PO teams at the TDL in 2025.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

The defense will have Oesterle playing top 4 minutes. I think the Flames are going to fall hard once they have three #7 Dmen getting regular minutes.

I don't think that will happen, I think we add an NHL caliber defenseman at some point in one of our returns (maybe even to facilitate another team's trade). I could also see us buying low on someone like Boqvist or something

I expect we fall below Buffalo, Montreal, and Minnesota but of the bottom 5 teams only Ottawa has any chance of actually catching us.

Breaking that bottom 5 is tough. I'd like to see it though. If you're going rebuild, do it right. Probably too late for a bottom 3 pick. Apparently the team is shopping Markstrom, but won't move him unless it's for a solid package. Then Markstrom has to approve the deal.



His numbers are likely to improve, especially if he has chemistry with Pettersson. 45 points in 33 games is optimistic though. I see him returning to a 35 goal and 70 point pace though.

I think he will get ~40 in 33 games. I give it a +/- 5 points. So I think 45 is absolutely possible

 

[timw33]

Kuz probably best fit for a non playoff team to a bubble team with his current style. PO teams want a more responsible 200 foot game, which Tocchet was trying to get Kuz to play.

Agree that he'll be fine in Calgary, but if he's not long for Calgary, probably best to be an off-season move as I don't see him being a target of PO teams at the TDL in 2025.

The problem there is that Kuzmenko still has a 12 team NTC.

 

[Siludin]

If Guentzel was even available, management would have targeted him? There’s no way JR and PA are waiting around for Dubas and Guentzel to make a decision. They better hurry fast if they even think there’s a potential trade.

My guess is they chatted, Vancouver proposed a similar offer to Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh said no (or left it open to future negotiations).

Then Vancouver called Conroy and got the deal done in short order, because they weren't going to wait for Pittburgh.

If Pittsburgh goes on a losing streak and they end up trading Jake for peanuts, then Dubas is going to look terrible, but there is one less contender buying on the market, and the other contenders don't have Vancouver's assets.

I think Dubas should extend Guentzel so that he doesn't have pie on his face on a limp trade; Pittsburgh will have other fish to dangle if they want to rebuild/retool over the next few years. He should move on from Rust/Rakell/Smith ASAP, even if it's for later picks; they signed for a few more years but at contracts that will be much more palatable than Guentzel's extension, so teams may be interested in them as non-rentals.

 

[bossram]

Lindholm is absolutely a better all around player than Horvat, he just isn't riding a ridiculous 21.7% shooting percentage, instead it's the exact opposite as Lindholm is at a 6.8% shooting percentage this season. Even if Horvat is a better offensive player (debatable), Lindholm is a far superior 200 ft player.

It's worth noting that they haven't committed to extending him yet either, but overall Lindholm will likely be a better fit and I think he will have similar synergy with EP40 as he did with Gaudreau

I would settle on grading them as roughly equivalent. Horvat's managed to get by with very mediocre wingers for the majority of his Canucks tenure. He finally has a player to play with. Lindholm gets the edge defensively.

I know Lindholm's shooting is depressed. See my posts about his shooting and production. It's bound to go up.

Again, see my posts about the fit with Lindholm on this team. I was very optimistic about that.

But at the end of the day, he will be 30 next season, and is already declining. There is essentially no realistic contract that would entice me to want to re-sign Lindholm. It'll be poor value almost from Day 1, eliminate any cap flexibility they have in the offseason, and most crucially, take up cap space from their other far more important upcoming negotiations (not just Petey and Hronek, but Demko and Hughes).

 

[Regal]

I think it does. Their time-of-puck-possession relative to their shot attempts, or shot attempts relative to their scoring chances ratios are quite skewed. They seem to forgo bad shots, hold the puck, and wait for better chances.

I don't think this leads to a 13% team shooting percentage (which would be the highest recorded for a full season in the cap era), but elevated above average.

Anyway, Lindholm is shooting 6% right now. That's going to come up regardless of whether anything else above is true. I think we're confident he's not a true talent league-worst finisher.

Natural positive regression is due like you say, but I think more than the system, just playing with someone like Pettersson, which I think will be the plan, probably provides more open looks than the support cast in Calgary the past two years. His shooting was also down last year compared to his time next to Gaudreau. Pettersson could (hopefully) being that back out of him.