Salary Cap: Value of nylanders next contract

[therealkoho]

Just ran across a rumour from an unnamed party who's name starts with EK...or is that ICK? Anyway, said party floating a rumour of Chychrun for Willy AND Sandin. Coffee almost came out my nose over that one!

so also getting their 2nd this year, Crouse, and their 2nd next year or our 2025 2nd back...something like that?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Gaudreau got 7 x $9.75M for 115 points and leading the league in ES scoring. Where the f*** do you people get this nonsense from? Funny how people like you who used to trash him all the time now think he's going to price himself out of Toronto that badly.

Nylander will be 2 years younger when his contract is up, and Gaudreau had 2 very bad off years leading up to his contract year. Nylanders the opposite. The two best years of his career leads up to his contract year. How his contract year goes is up in the air for now.

But I was also told FOR YEARS that the leafs have to pay a premium due to taxes, media pressure, and weather.

So even if we equate Nylander and Gaudreau, we have to account for those other factors. I DEMAND consistency. And this is what I've been told regarding contracts for years now.

 

[Americanadian]

Somewhere between Fiala and Forsberg.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner should have always been signed before Matthews to take away that comparable.

That was not an option without taking both to offer sheet status, which would have obviously been a bad idea. Matthews didn't change what Marner got anyway.

 

[IPS]

Nylander will be 2 years younger when his contract is up, and Gaudreau had 2 very bad off years leading up to his contract year. Nylanders the opposite. The two best years of his career leads up to his contract year. How his contract year goes is up in the air for now.

But I was also told FOR YEARS that the leafs have to pay a premium due to taxes, media pressure, and weather.

So even if we equate Nylander and Gaudreau, we have to account for those other factors. I DEMAND consistency. And this is what I've been told regarding contracts for years now.

Well the rumor was that Calgary had an 8 year, $84M contract lined up for Gaudreau. Calgary having the same alleged disadvantages as us, only worked out to a 750K difference between them and a better tax situation with Columbus.

Gaudreau's track record is still much better than Nylander's. He had a 99 point year prior to those 2 bad years you referenced.

Nylander goes on the open market - with the established market for scoring wingers the way it is - who is realistically going to offer him north of a $10M AAV? Anyone who honestly thinks Nylander can get that on the open market is way out to lunch.

This is why I barely engage in these contract talks anymore. The pure hyperbole and hysteria is completely unbearable.

 

[Menzinger]

Willy will likely get 8 years 72 million to stay or 7 year 63-66 million elsewhere

Yep. Probably close to that. Maybe a tad higher but not much.

Basically 10-11% of the cap based on most realistic comparisons.

Some other folks in this thread have been getting a bit carried away with themselves in terms of estimates

 

[Funk21]

He should get 8x9-9.5 with a deal that pays 90% in signing bonus within the first 3 years. Said this before but we showed faith in the core we need to talk with AM, Marner and Nylander to ensure they understand it’s been our cap flexibility that has killed us. Take a little less to make a better team around them.

 

[Azail]

The players now have all the leverage. They can pretty much say to Dubas "This is the amount of money I'll stay for. Take it or leave it." And that's the only choice Dubas has. Take it or leave it.

When they were rfa's, DUBAS held all the leverage. "This is how much we're willing to pay you. Take it or leave it. Go play for peanuts in Europe if you like". When that happened, there was a literal online army of people using weird stats to make our players appear better than they really are so that they can rationalize their boy Dubas's overpayments.

If I tried making comparisons to players in Florida or Tenessee, I had thousands of posters SCREAMING at me about taxes. My inbox would be flooded. There were so many posts bellowing about taxes that the entirety of hfboards would usually crash for hours on end if I even thought about making comparisons to cities with no state tax.

And yet here we are in a thread where people are making direct comparisons to players in Florida and Tenessee. Not one PEEP about taxes. Nothing. Because these arguments only exist to push narratives.

In those old threads, proven 20 goal/60 point leaf players were being equated to proven 34/70 point players. Why is THIS no longer happening in reverse? Why are we no longer dismissing lower leaf stats as "less pp time"? Aren't the leafs /60 stats still better than these comparables people are making? WHY HAVE THESE ARGUMENTS DISAPPEARED??????

If Nylander is this good again next year, he will not accept a penny less than 11 mil. I'd be surprised if Matthews takes less than $15. And Marner (who sees himself as Matthews equal) is signing a year later where it is expected the cap to increase quite a bit. So he'll also get around $15, but it will be like 2% less cap percentage.

That's what will happen. You CANNOT just pretend all these arguments you've been making for years no longer apply.

Meh he didn't really have the leverage. He did what you said he should do with Nylander. Still had to pay $7mil a year.

You say he had all the leverage, but you do realize he's GMing in the biggest hockey market. Do you think the random fans out there would care about the salary cap/financials? No they would have been like sign him. Do you think ownership group would have been OK with Matthews and Marner sitting out a whole year to 'stick it to them?' Especially when they were considered cup contenders? This would be TONS of money out of ownerships pockets due to reduction in jersey sales etc., let alone not making the playoffs and getting that revenue.

Let's say he holds out with Matthews, I personally always thought he was going to be the offer-sheet target out of the 3, so it is possible they are actually paying more, cause they weren't letting him walk. Marner, obviously he doesn't get offer-sheeted, so lets say he does the Willy thing, sits him out to Dec. 1. Maybe he signs a bridge deal at probably close to 8-9mil per year. That contract would be up, and he's making even more now.

If those players want 11 or 15mil, they will get it. And there is nothing the Leafs can do about it besides sign it, or let them go. If they got them on a cheaper price before, it wouldn't change what they are going to get in their UFA contract.

I am not sure why you are so focused on the past contracts. It is done, they are signed. They have been a good team the whole time during their contracts.

I am happy those players are on the team.

 

[capfit9]

Filip Forsberg

 

[notdoneyet]

Nylanders agent will compare him to his teammates not players on other teams.

What is his value compared to the other big 3

 

[Americanadian]

Nylanders agent will compare him to his teammates not players on other teams.

What is his value compared to the other big 3

If he wants to be paid like his team mates he can find new ones.

 

[notdoneyet]

Its been reported that matthews will be the highest paid player in the league and if he signs for 15 do you think nylander will sign for 9m

Is he worth 6m less than matthews

 

[Menzinger]

Nylanders agent will compare him to his teammates not players on other teams.

What is his value compared to the other big 3

Other teams won't accept that though. And his value on the wider free agency market will have a major impact on his Leafs negotiations.

 

[IPS]

Nylanders agent will compare him to his teammates not players on other teams.

What is his value compared to the other big 3

So what?

What exactly is his leverage to demand that? The leverage he has is the open market. The open market is not going to match our "internal cap".

We already have a set market on scoring wingers with Tkachuk/Gaudreau/Forsberg's contracts. Nylander goes on the open market and he's going to be offered money in line with those comparables, other team's won't give a shit about our "internal cap". But we have to offer him money similar to Matthews/Marner because????

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner, obviously he doesn't get offer-sheeted

Most other things you said are accurate, but it should be noted that Marner did get offer-sheeted. He got multiple actually. He just didn't sign them, because he wanted to be a Leaf. But if negotiations started stretching in-season, and the Leafs weren't willing to pay him what he'd earned, he probably starts considering those other options.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nylanders agent will compare him to his teammates not players on other teams.
What is his value compared to the other big 3

Nylander doesn't really have any comparables on our team. He's obviously less valuable than Matthews, Marner, and Tavares at the time of his signing. He'll use appropriate comparables from other teams, like everybody else.

 

[ACC1224]

Nylanders agent will compare him to his teammates not players on other teams.

What is his value compared to the other big 3

He will be compared primarily to his teammates and also to similar players around the league.

 

[Puckstuff]

9.25 max term

 

[Notsince67]

Filip Forsberg

Even though it is a high water mark for Willy, I'm ok with a Forsberg comparable on the condition there isn't a NMC. Assuming an 88MM salary cap, 9.064MM x 8.
If he maintains 90+ this year, I could be persuaded to add a NMC for 5 of the 8.

 

[FreeBird]

Even though it is a high water mark for Willy, I'm ok with a Forsberg comparable on the condition there isn't a NMC. Assuming an 88MM salary cap, 9.064MM x 8.
If he maintains 90+ this year, I could be persuaded to add a NMC for 5 of the 8.

Nylander has turned Matthews into a thirty five goal scorer

 

[Notsince67]

Nylander has turned Matthews into a thirty five goal scorer

Team doesn't need to have Matthews score 60 goals every year. It just needs to win.

 

[freshwind]

you know, I have no knowledge or source but there is a part of me that thinks willie may be the easiest of the 3 to sign ... he has a pretty laid back character ... his concern last time was signing a deal and being dealt ... matthews is pumped as a mega star and most think he will get whatever he wants and marner does seem to have a little insecurity in his demeanour and will want whatever auston gets ...
as I say, I have no knowledge but just observations from afar ... I could be right or I could be 100% wrong LOL ... guess we will find out

 

[Menzinger]

Nylander has turned Matthews into a thirty five goal scorer

Matthews has been dealing with an injury

 

[Azail]

Most other things you said are accurate, but it should be noted that Marner did get offer-sheeted. He got multiple actually. He just didn't sign them, because he wanted to be a Leaf. But if negotiations started stretching in-season, and the Leafs weren't willing to pay him what he'd earned, he probably starts considering those other options.

That is fair, I couldn't remember if he did, obviously he never signed one. Very possible he looks at other options if they played hardball, we won't ever know now.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Oh so Willie is now effective at C?

Nylander has turned Matthews into a thirty five goal scorer

Yikes this is a bad take lmao