Salary Cap: Value of nylanders next contract

[Dekes For Days]

When they were rfa's, DUBAS held all the leverage.

That's not true at all. Leverage situations are not all or nothing like you seem to think, and high-quality players always hold significant leverage.

When that happened, there was a literal online army of people using weird stats to make our players appear better than they really are

That's also not true. If there was any "army", it was an army of people refusing to accept the undeniable quality of our players, both historically and relative to their peers, and cherry picking exclusively raw points with zero context and specific contracts (many of which weren't even post-ELC) to make our players and their contracts appear worse than they really were.

If I tried making comparisons to players in Florida or Tenessee, I had thousands of posters SCREAMING at me about taxes.

Massive hyperbole (what else is new) aside, the far bigger problem was the blatantly incorrect ways you were trying to discuss contracts to begin with, not the taxes.

In those old threads, proven 20 goal/60 point players were being equated to proven 34/70 point players.

This is a good example of it. Player contracts aren't determined by labeling them as "X point players", based exclusively on their highest raw point total to date, with no context or consideration for their progression and prior production. You conveniently leave out things like the fact that the 60-point player was consistently a 60-point player, and the 70-point player was following up seasons of 26 and 27 points. You've even acknowledged the importance of things like this when it suits your argument, but then conveniently ignore it when it suits your false claims of "unprecedented dramatic overpayments".

Why is THIS no longer happening in reverse? Why are we no longer dismissing lower leaf stats as "less pp time"? Aren't the leafs /60 stats still better than these comparables people are making? WHY HAVE THESE ARGUMENTS DISAPPEARED??????

Per-60 stats haven't disappeared at all. They are still just as relevant, though there is less of a discrepancy because the gap in PP time has decreased. Exactly which comparison do you think this makes a significant difference for?

If Nylander is this good again next year

Nylander likely signs this offseason, so what he does next year is irrelevant.

I'd be surprised if Matthews takes less than $15. And Marner (who sees himself as Matthews equal) is signing a year later where it is expected the cap to increase quite a bit. So he'll also get around $15, but it will be like 2% less cap percentage.

No reason to think they will get that much, and for the record, Marner wanting to be paid an appropriate amount - which was still less than Matthews - does not mean he sees himself as equal.

You CANNOT just pretend all these arguments you've been making for years no longer apply.

Nobody is changing their arguments. You just don't seem to understand or know how to properly apply the things people have been explaining to you for years.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

That's not true at all. Leverage situations are not all or nothing like you seem to think, and high-quality players always hold significant leverage.

That's also not true. If there was any "army", it was an army of people refusing to accept the undeniable quality of our players, both historically and relative to their peers, and cherry picking exclusively raw points with zero context and specific contracts (many of which weren't even post-ELC) to make our players and their contracts appear worse than they really were.

Massive hyperbole (what else is new) aside, the far bigger problem was the blatantly incorrect ways you were trying to discuss contracts to begin with, not the taxes.

This is a good example of it. Player contracts aren't determined by labeling them as "X point players", based exclusively on their highest raw point total to date, with no context or consideration for their progression and prior production. You conveniently leave out things like the fact that the 60-point player was consistently a 60-point player, and the 70-point player was following up seasons of 26 and 27 points. You've even acknowledged the importance of things like this when it suits your argument, but then conveniently ignore it when it suits your false claims of "unprecedented dramatic overpayments".

Per-60 stats haven't disappeared at all. They are still just as relevant, though there is less of a discrepancy because the gap in PP time has decreased. Exactly which comparison do you think this makes a significant difference for?

Nylander likely signs this offseason, so what he does next year is irrelevant.

No reason to think they will get that much, and for the record, Marner wanting to be paid an appropriate amount - which was still less than Matthews - does not mean he sees himself as equal.

Nobody is changing their arguments. You just don't seem to understand or know how to properly apply the things people have been explaining to you for years.

Nope. You can't just pretend like this. I'm going to play YOUR games back to you.

Nylanders g/60 and p/60 have been significantly higher each and every year than Matthew Tkachuk and Filip Forsberg. The only exception was final contract year (which Nylander hasn't even started yet). But we have MANY seasons to work with.

Nylanders stats are closer to Tkachuks than Forsberg. So lets start there.

Tkachuk signs 9.5x8. But that's a place where he pays 20% less tax. What I was told when making such comparisons in 2018/19 was that we now have to add that 20% to leaf players. So right there, that takes Nylander to 11.4x8. Now (and remember... these are YOUR rules) as I said, Nylanders /60 stats are significantly better than Tkachuck. So we have to take that into consideration as well. So Nylander should make at least an extra mil based on his stats being better when you take his less powerplays out of the equation.

So that's somewhere around 12-13 mil for Nylanders next contract based on DIRECT comprables. I'm just using YOUR precis rules against you. If you disagree, then you have to reevaluate your opinions on the 2019 contracts.

 

[Morbo]

well whatever Nylander's contract is, we will have you freaking out unnecessarily over it like you did last time.

I DEMAND CONSISTENCY

 

[thewave]

The players now have all the leverage. They can pretty much say to Dubas "This is the amount of money I'll stay for. Take it or leave it." And that's the only choice Dubas has. Take it or leave it.

When they were rfa's, DUBAS held all the leverage. "This is how much we're willing to pay you. Take it or leave it. Go play for peanuts in Europe if you like". When that happened, there was a literal online army of people using weird stats to make our players appear better than they really are so that they can rationalize their boy Dubas's overpayments.

If I tried making comparisons to players in Florida or Tenessee, I had thousands of posters SCREAMING at me about taxes. My inbox would be flooded. There were so many posts bellowing about taxes that the entirety of hfboards would usually crash for hours on end if I even thought about making comparisons to cities with no state tax.

And yet here we are in a thread where people are making direct comparisons to players in Florida and Tenessee. Not one PEEP about taxes. Nothing. Because these arguments only exist to push narratives.

In those old threads, proven 20 goal/60 point leaf players were being equated to proven 34/70 point players. Why is THIS no longer happening in reverse? Why are we no longer dismissing lower leaf stats as "less pp time"? Aren't the leafs /60 stats still better than these comparables people are making? WHY HAVE THESE ARGUMENTS DISAPPEARED??????

If Nylander is this good again next year, he will not accept a penny less than 11 mil. I'd be surprised if Matthews takes less than $15. And Marner (who sees himself as Matthews equal) is signing a year later where it is expected the cap to increase quite a bit. So he'll also get around $15, but it will be like 2% less cap percentage.

That's what will happen. You CANNOT just pretend all these arguments you've been making for years no longer apply.

Just replying because I was witness and a part of this. I remember they wouldn't even acknowledge that the amendments to the rules caused an increase in pts per season among the top players during contract talk.

It wasn't a case of nescience that we had going on here. It was full blown ignorance. They ignored facts to form narratives that were packaged to justify managements actions.

Incredible stuff.

 

[PromisedLand]

10 to 11 AAV IMO

and

Matthews would be anywhere between 13.5 to 15 AAV unless he really regresses

At present leafs are the only team in the league with three 10AAV+ contracts and without a 2nd round; then it will be 4 players for a year until JT's contact is done.

If only people could see how a rookie gm has screwed the pooch.... oh well...

 

[IPS]

I'm expecting league maximum and nothing less.

 

[nuck]

At the moment I think he's heading to a deal in the 10-11% of the cap range..so 8x9ish mil is fair based on current cap.

He may bring up the internal cap issue. But fact is, he won't be able to use that on other teams who will be looking to pay him the market rate for wingers of his caliber. And the Leafs have the advantage of the 8th year + advantageous bonus structure

In the past the Leafs have provided that great bonus structure and received zero credit for it in term or AAV from the players. It may be that agents are pushing back with the higher TO tax rate compared to some US markets. The 8th year to a player into his mid 30s has to be big though. And does he want to be "the guy" or is the prospect of change not that appealing to him? Either of those things could be the absolute deciding factor to him and the money may be secondary.

The problem is that he won't know the limitations of the market place until he is a summer FA and the longer he waits the better chance he has at a higher cap so the temptation to wait and cash in might be too great. I believe the club should deal him this summer if they cant get the right extension but I have a feeling Dubas would go into the final year and the M-NTC to get it done as he has been reluctant to even hint at a possible trade of his core guys. All Willie has to do is give KD the playoff in 2023 he believes his big 3 are capable of and he will have Kyle hooked. This will be fascinating to watch unfold with the first hurdle being a strong playoff for the Leafs.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Don’t players like to sign something involving their jersey number?

8 years 88 million
Following in the footsteps of Johnny Toronto

 

[Stephen]

Pasta will and should be getting closer to Matthews money than what Nylander will be getting imo. So pastas deal will be a firmer cap on where Nylanders likely looking

Maybe if Pastrnak gets something in the $10 million in the depressed Boston salary structure and under you can freeze Nylander at the upper $9 million mark you call it a day. If Pastrnak gets Panarin money on the open market, keeping Nylander will be much harder to achieve. He's got to want to stay and help make it work.

 

[Sundinisagod]

8 years 88 million
Following in the footsteps of Johnny Toronto

This is exactly what he’s gonna ask for from Toronto or he hits the UFA market for best offer. He‘s just about as good as Marner who’s been getting 10.9 on his RFA deal so Nylander will want at least that much for his UFA deal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nope. You can't just pretend like this. I'm going to play YOUR games back to you.

Nylanders g/60 and p/60 have been significantly higher each and every year than Matthew Tkachuk and Filip Forsberg. The only exception was final contract year (which Nylander hasn't even started yet). But we have MANY seasons to work with. Nylanders stats are closer to Tkachuks than Forsberg. So lets start there.

Tkachuk signs 9.5x8. But that's a place where he pays 20% less tax. What I was told when making such comparisons in 2018/19 was that we now have to add that 20% to leaf players. So right there, that takes Nylander to 11.4x8. Now (and remember... these are YOUR rules) as I said, Nylanders /60 stats are significantly better than Tkachuck. So we have to take that into consideration as well. So Nylander should make at least an extra mil based on his stats being better when you take his less powerplays out of the equation.

So that's somewhere around 12-13 mil for Nylanders next contract based on DIRECT comprables. I'm just using YOUR precis rules against you. If you disagree, then you have to reevaluate your opinions on the 2019 contracts.

Literally none of this is accurate.

First off, nothing you've done here methodology-wise resembles anything I've said or done, now or in 2019. None of this is "my rules". You're just playing your own games again, misrepresenting arguments, and refusing to accept or discuss how things actually work.
Second, nothing you've said here fact-wise is true either. Nylander's per-60 metrics are not "significantly higher than Tkachuk or Forsberg". Where did you get that idea? Tkachuk does not pay 20% of his contract less in tax, and you can't just randomly boost contracts by millions. None of this was ever the argument or what people were telling you, now or in 2019.

But even within your own argument, where you believed all of the incorrect things you said to be true, the question becomes why, out of all of the dozens of possible comparables that exist, would you cherry pick ones that you believe signed in entirely different tax locations (that you believe fundamentally alters contract valuation) after putting up what you believe to be entirely different production, instead of picking ones that more closely matched Nylander's situation? Because it certainly seems like it's so that you could arbitrarily add millions onto the contract to get to the range you claim he's going to sign at, because there's no actual justification for those numbers.

 

[ToneDog]

This is exactly what he’s gonna ask for from Toronto or he hits the UFA market for best offer. He‘s just about as good as Marner who’s been getting 10.9 on his RFA deal so Nylander will want at least that much for his UFA deal.

Then trade him. I mean his value has never been higher.

 

[thewave]

Then trade him. I mean his value has never been higher.

They won't do anything. This organization is incapable of making tough decisions because nobody wants to rock the boat. They do what they always do, let the contract go to market and overpay or lose him for nothing. Nothing has changed in Toronto, not a single thing. JFJ put it in his book if not mistaken when he wanted to do a rebuild and the board blocked him from doing the right thing.

I think they think in terms of marketing more than success. Do you know how much a change costs us in Merchandise? They are telecom and media giants, everything they do rocks the boat as well. This is way worse than having a completely oblivious TPP owner while being run by Larry "The Menace" Tanenbaum.

 

[Arzak]

8 years 88 million
Following in the footsteps of Johnny Toronto

I expect Pasta to take this contract in Boston.


IMO Nylander will get paid somewhere in 9.5 or 11.

What scares me more is Marner at 12.6 M ,which a lot of posters expect he'll get ... btw the hometown discount included?


The last round of contracts set this up.


Who would've thought the last fancy contract could be used as a baseline for the next one...

 

[Dekes For Days]

I remember they wouldn't even acknowledge that the amendments to the rules caused an increase in pts per season among the top players during contract talk.

If you're talking about changes in league scoring, it should be noted that the contracts are still consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts when pre-signing production is adjusted for league scoring levels (which actually wasn't as different at that point as you're probably assuming). That was never ignored.

 

[ToneDog]

I expect Pasta to take this contract in Boston.


IMO Nylander will get paid somewhere in 9.5 or 11.

What scares me more is Marner at 12.6 M ,which a lot of posters expect he'll get ... btw the hometown discount included?


The last round of contracts set this up.


Who would've thought the last fancy contract could be used as a baseline for the next one...

I do not see how 88 can be paid more than Tkachuk, Huberdeau and Gudreau who had 100+ point seasons. Add that the Leafs can front load with bonuses and it is an unfair advantage we inflict on ourselves. We will never win doing business this way.

 

[ULF_55]

I do not see how 88 can be paid more than Tkachuk, Huberdeau and Gudreau who had 100+ point seasons. Add that the Leafs can front load with bonuses and it is an unfair advantage we inflict on ourselves. We will never win doing business this way.

If he gets the same percentage of cap, it would be more as the cap is supposed to be up by 3-4-5 million when Nylanders next contract takes effect.

 

[ToneDog]

If he gets the same percentage of cap, it would be more as the cap is supposed to be up by 3-4-5 million when Nylanders next contract takes effect.

Question is does he deserve the same percentage and can we afford to give it to him, given we have 3 $11m players already ???

 

[Antropovsky]

He shouldn't get more than Barzal but he will want more.

 

[Jojalu]

They won't do anything. This organization is incapable of making tough decisions because nobody wants to rock the boat. They do what they always do, let the contract go to market and overpay or lose him for nothing. Nothing has changed in Toronto, not a single thing. JFJ put it in his book if not mistaken when he wanted to do a rebuild and the board blocked him from doing the right thing.

I think they think in terms of marketing more than success. Do you know how much a change costs us in Merchandise? They are telecom and media giants, everything they do rocks the boat as well. This is way worse than having a completely oblivious TPP owner while being run by Larry "The Menace" Tanenbaum.

What teams that are in the playoffs year in, year out trade their UFA'S? Zero if they are serious about winning.

I can't remember who brought this up the other day but it is 100% accurate.

The Leafs have put themselves in this situation by not winning a round.

They are a top team year in, year out during the regular season that they keep UFA's, trade futures for help, draft low in the first if the have it left, yet never win.

No one give's a f@$$ that Tampa has lost numerous players and paid out a whole bunch of firsts because they won.

If they could EVER just win, all these contracts, draft picks lost, UFA'S lost, and failures would melt away.

I hope like hell it is this year

 

[Confucius]

8 years 88 million
Following in the footsteps of Johnny Toronto

It’s a pretty good night for a Saturday
And the manager gives me a smile
Cause he knows that it’s me they’ve been coming to see…

Piano man’s name was Bill. Has to be 88 million. OMG

 

[93gilmour93]

I’d say depending on the term it’s something like this….

10 x 6 years
9.5 x 7 years
9 x 8 years

 

[WillyC]

I’m sticking with 8.88 x 8

 

[Confucius]

I’m sticking with 8.88 x 8

It depends on how the year goes, if he finishes the season the way this first half is going he ends up with 45 goals and 95 points. Marner with about the same points and only half the goals got what 10 million and that was 5 years ago. No way William takes less than what Marner got 5 years ago.

 

[Menzinger]

In the past the Leafs have provided that great bonus structure and received zero credit for it in term or AAV from the players. It may be that agents are pushing back with the higher TO tax rate compared to some US markets. The 8th year to a player into his mid 30s has to be big though. And does he want to be "the guy" or is the prospect of change not that appealing to him? Either of those things could be the absolute deciding factor to him and the money may be secondary.

The problem is that he won't know the limitations of the market place until he is a summer FA and the longer he waits the better chance he has at a higher cap so the temptation to wait and cash in might be too great. I believe the club should deal him this summer if they cant get the right extension but I have a feeling Dubas would go into the final year and the M-NTC to get it done as he has been reluctant to even hint at a possible trade of his core guys. All Willie has to do is give KD the playoff in 2023 he believes his big 3 are capable of and he will have Kyle hooked. This will be fascinating to watch unfold with the first hurdle being a strong playoff for the Leafs.

Again, I don't really see aav as being hugely influenced by bonuses either. But if there's 2-3 teams all after a player, all offering close to identical money, then bonuses structure may come into play more often.

Personally I see.thr biggest obstacle to a Nylander extension would be a desire not to keep playing second fiddle. But (externally speaking) he seems to like playing here, and few teams around the league can offer as comfortable setting to play (ie first rate facilities, off ice personal, ect). Even if one truly believes Nylander is a career driven mercenary, hard to find a more comfortable area to play as you hit the 30s age range.

Personally I think the 7-8 years of term from the Leafs is what will likely be the ultimate thing that keeps him