Salary Cap: Value of nylanders next contract

[Jojalu]

If I am Dubas( or the next GM) I sit down the 3 of them and figure out if they want to win here.

If that is the case then propose taking deals all simular to what they are making now and target UFA's they can acquire over the next 3 years that they could now afford with the savings from the 3 of them not asking for max.

If not, choose 1 or 2 you really want and trade the other(s) for as much as you can.

 

[IPS]

If Matthews is demanding near league max and Nylander is demanding north of 10, I'm trading the whole core and starting over. This is a winning franchise we're trying to run, not a f***ing ATM machine.

 

[Sundinisagod]

If I am Dubas( or the next GM) I sit down the 3 of them and figure out if they want to win here.

If that is the case then propose taking deals all simular to what they are making now and target UFA's they can acquire over the next 3 years that they could now afford with the savings from the 3 of them not asking for max.

If not, choose 1 or 2 you really want and trade the other(s) for as much as you can.

The challenge here is that their ntc’s kick in the same time you are allowed to sign them to new contracts.

The best hope here is, that the UFA market sets a better price for these guys than we’re capable of negotiating on our own.

 

[Jojalu]

The challenge here is that their ntc’s kick in the same time you are allowed to sign them to new contracts.

The best hope here is, that the UFA market sets a better price for these guys than we’re capable of negotiating on our own.

At some point you have to know whether or not they have interest in staying and who tor what they are all about.

While they cannot sign before July 1, you can have a framework or idea of what their intentions are before.

At the latest I am giving them up to a week before the draft to have a deadline on what they want to do.

It becomes simple. Do you want to win here or not? If yes, then they can't max out or even close.

If they choose to make money( which I fault no one if that is their choice) then the Leafs have to move on.

If the win this year, everything changes and the new narrative becomes do you want to see if this becomes a dynasty?

 

[notdoneyet]

Do the math when we have to resign matthews nylander

Cap goes up 1m next year 2023/2024
Cap goes up 4m next year 2024/2025

Say cap is 87500000

We have signed tavares 11 m
Marner 10.9
Janrok 2.1
Reilly 7.5

We have left 55997000 left to sign rest of team

Matthews? 13.5
Nylander? 9.5

Thats 23 million of the 55.9

32.5 for the rest of the team

Can’t be done i dont care if we have the best cap guru in the league.
If we run a 20 man roster thats 14 players and 32.5 m to sign them. That is an average of 2.3 per player.

 

[Confucius]

At some point you have to know whether or not they have interest in staying and who tor what they are all about.

While they cannot sign before July 1, you can have a framework or idea of what their intentions are before.

At the latest I am giving them up to a week before the draft to have a deadline on what they want to do.

It becomes simple. Do you want to win here or not? If yes, then they can't max out or even close.

If they choose to make money( which I fault no one if that is their choice) then the Leafs have to move on.

If the win this year, everything changes and the new narrative becomes do you want to see if this becomes a dynasty?

It can also work the other way, player leaves basically saying this team can’t win time to move on.

 

[thewave]

Do the math when we have to resign matthews nylander

Cap goes up 1m next year 2023/2024
Cap goes up 4m next year 2024/2025

Say cap is 87500000

We have signed tavares 11 m
Marner 10.9
Janrok 2.1
Reilly 7.5

We have left 55997000 left to sign rest of team

Matthews? 13.5
Nylander? 9.5

Thats 23 million of the 55.9

32.5 for the rest of the team

Can’t be done i dont care if we have the best cap guru in the league.
If we run a 20 man roster thats 14 players and 32.5 m to sign them. That is an average of 2.3 per player.

A GM that won't have a job unless he wins a cup cares why? It's the all in season right now pretty much. Next year could be seen as an extension of that while cuffed by a no trade clause.

It can also work the other way, player leaves basically saying this team can’t win time to move on.

If I were a player. I would see it simply as we have a good shot at winning this year. Next year perhaps as well but after that the cap situation is dire and winning unlikely. I would go to a low tax state and collect big bucks but that's me.

 

[Jojalu]

A

It can also work the other way, player leaves basically saying this team can’t win time to move on.

100%.

 

[Menzinger]

Do the math when we have to resign matthews nylander

Cap goes up 1m next year 2023/2024
Cap goes up 4m next year 2024/2025

Say cap is 87500000

We have signed tavares 11 m
Marner 10.9
Janrok 2.1
Reilly 7.5

We have left 55997000 left to sign rest of team

Matthews? 13.5
Nylander? 9.5

Thats 23 million of the 55.9

32.5 for the rest of the team

Can’t be done i dont care if we have the best cap guru in the league.
If we run a 20 man roster thats 14 players and 32.5 m to sign them. That is an average of 2.3 per player.

It's only particularly tight for 1 season though. Tavares current contract only overlaps with a hypothetical Nylander + Matthews extension. Then Tavares likely signs for anywhere from 50-75% less.

It's not ideal, but it's manageable if they just want to tread water for 1 season before they regain more cap flexibility

 

[Yall are crazy]

Nylander is criminally underpaid and in poverty wages he's always been a star but these past years he's been a superstar. The leafs are lucky he was okay getting paid that little. Probably cause he grew up a millionaire so money wasn't that big a deal. Willy at the very least deserves 8.5 million. Lesser players are getting 8 million and everyone and their momma is getting theirs(marners influence. We love a trendsetter the rest of the league follows after it's been crucified). We can't afford all these star players unless they're fine with being underpaid and bc willy was in poverty and disrespected we were able to keep all our stars. Everyone say thank you willy. But after everyone contracts are up the cap is only going up 2 million. The core will not get to stay sadly.

 

[Yall are crazy]

If Matthews is demanding near league max and Nylander is demanding north of 10, I'm trading the whole core and starting over. This is a winning franchise we're trying to run, not a f***ing ATM machine.

But this isn't a winning franchise. That's the problem. You want these star players and you think they're gonna stand being underpaid. They're nit. You trade the core, some of the best players in the league, and you get avg or above avg ppl you're not gonna get in the playoffs. The leafs will just revert you how they've always been. Yo< need stars to win a cup. we may have too Many superstars but you need 2. You talk about all these stars you want to come to Toronto when they themselves don't even want to come. It'd on the no trade clause list for a reason. We only get newbies who have no choice, vets who are heading out or want to be on their childhood team and that's it. No one else really comes here. The fan base has forgotten we missed the playoffs for 2 decades straight.

 

[Yall are crazy]

Nylander doesnt seem attached to Toronto in any way. I could see him once again, maximizing his contract. His 6.96 million was viewed as high when it was first signed. Now is it a bargain with 80pts a year now. I will guess he will ask for 10 million and have no issue walking away. I can see Matthews similar to this but a little more attached. Marner has the most attachment to this team , I dont think he ever wants to leave.

Back then I would have agreed with you, bit ever since his contract marner has been the most scrutinized and hated player on this team. And he knows it. He hasn't forgotten about 2019 and 2021 and even last october, and how he gets treated by the fanbase(not all) and the media. In fact he even said, he's happy to play for the team and having fun NOWADAYS.hes truly taken for granted bc ppl abuse him too much and expect him to stay when he could be the one who wants to leave the most. If they don't have a deep run or win the cup this year and austons contract ends too and he's the scapegoat yet again, I bet you he's going to another team

If Willie wants to be beloved by Leafs fans, he will give a discount like Rielly did. If he takes every last penny, then he is probably another victim of the cap, or another first round loss.

Yall already treat him like shit. That man ain't getting a discount for a fickle shifty fanbase who's been abusing him for years.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

He's playing himself into the $10.5-11.5M asking range and I think some team will offer it to him on the open market.

Tkatchuk, Forsberg, etc. are good comparables but they signed 1-2 seasons prior to the opening of Nylander's negotiation window. I think if the Leafs do real damage in the playoffs, Nylander might agree to an 8X $10.5M while still retaining Matthews and Marner.

I think you can just about pull this off if you let Kerfoot ($3.5M) and Engvall ($2.3M) walk, trade Murray ($4.7M) and replace with Samsonov/Woll next season and the two forwards with guys like SDA, Knies, etc. It also means you'll probably lose Bunting and Holl, bridge Samsonov with risk of UFA, and expect Muzzin to retire. 2024-2025 becomes a bit easier with Tavares coming off the books. I

Not saying that the Leafs should do the above at the expense of keeping Nylander/Marner/Matthews, but it's doable. You'll have to hope you have a steady stream of entry-level prospects that can come in each year to play at a high level while losing core players to UFA for nothing in order to compete.

 

[francis246]

Back then I would have agreed with you, bit ever since his contract marner has been the most scrutinized and hated player on this team. And he knows it. He hasn't forgotten about 2019 and 2021 and even last october, and how he gets treated by the fanbase(not all) and the media. In fact he even said, he's happy to play for the team and having fun NOWADAYS.hes truly taken for granted bc ppl abuse him too much and expect him to stay when he could be the one who wants to leave the most. If they don't have a deep run or win the cup this year and austons contract ends too and he's the scapegoat yet again, I bet you he's going to another team


Yall already treat him like shit. That man ain't getting a discount for a fickle shifty fanbase who's been abusing him for years.

You. Couldn’t be more off base with Marner. Everyone who has followed this team knows Marner’s affinity for the Maple Leafs. I don’t think he ever leaves. Unless there’s a bad break up or something goes horribly wrong. I think he’s the one guy who will be a life long leaf. Maybe even the captain of the team one day.

 

[francis246]

Do the math when we have to resign matthews nylander

Cap goes up 1m next year 2023/2024
Cap goes up 4m next year 2024/2025

Say cap is 87500000

We have signed tavares 11 m
Marner 10.9
Janrok 2.1
Reilly 7.5

We have left 55997000 left to sign rest of team

Matthews? 13.5
Nylander? 9.5

Thats 23 million of the 55.9

32.5 for the rest of the team

Can’t be done i dont care if we have the best cap guru in the league.
If we run a 20 man roster thats 14 players and 32.5 m to sign them. That is an average of 2.3 per player.

It can be done, but the rest of the team will be a lot of ELC’s.

That’s why holding on to Robertson, Knies, Niemela, Steeves, Anderson ect is going to be so important. In two years those 5 especially are going to have to graduate.

We essentially did this same thing back in 2016/2017 with our roster.

We graduated Gauthier, Hyman, Johnsson, Brown, Kapanen, Soshnikov, Corrado, Leivo, Nylander all in one year and Marner and Matthews also joined.

Something similar will have to happen in a year or two.

 

[ToneDog]

Willie is on a 90+ point pace. Is that worth up to $11m with huge signing bonuses ?? I mean Thompson on a 126 point pace must be kicking himself for signing for 7.1mx8.

Willie probably ends up with less than 90 points. 8x8.8 max for me or he is traded.

Matty and Mitch are on 94 point paces and JT is on a 76 point pace. Surely those numbers are not worth half the cap and serious money up front.

Oh yeah, can't win a playoff series but they are not paid for playoff success right ??

 

[notdoneyet]

It can be done, but the rest of the team will be a lot of ELC’s.

That’s why holding on to Robertson, Knies, Niemela, Steeves, Anderson ect is going to be so important. In two years those 5 especially are going to have to graduate.

We essentially did this same thing back in 2016/2017 with our roster.

We graduated Gauthier, Hyman, Johnsson, Brown, Kapanen, Soshnikov, Corrado, Leivo, Nylander all in one year and Marner and Matthews also joined.

Something similar will have to happen in a year or two.

It cant be done
Try it on cap friendly

We need two goalies
5 dmen
And a shitload of forwards

Xxx matthews nylander
Xxx tavares marner
Xxx janrok xxx
Xxx xxx xxx
Xxx

Reilly xxx
Xxx xxx
Xxx xxx
Xxx

Xxx
Xxx

With 32 million to spend if the cap raises
5 million in two years IF

And IF matthews signs 13.5
And willy signs 9.5

We wont make the playoffs with the players needed above
Someone big has to go. Cant be done otherwise.

WHO GOES

 

[Dekes For Days]

It cant be done
Try it on cap friendly

We need two goalies
5 dmen
And a shitload of forwards

Xxx matthews nylander
Xxx tavares marner
Xxx janrok xxx
Xxx xxx xxx
Xxx

Reilly xxx
Xxx xxx
Xxx xxx
Xxx

Xxx
Xxx

With 32 million to spend if the cap raises
5 million in two years IF

And IF matthews signs 13.5
And willy signs 9.5

We wont make the playoffs with the players needed above
Someone big has to go. Cant be done otherwise.

WHO GOES

So in this scenario, the cap rises 5m (which is a pretty conservative estimate) compared to now, and our expenditures rise 4.4m compared to now.
That means we have 0.6m more than we do now for the rest of the roster, so how exactly are we going to drop from top tier team to not making the playoffs?

 

[notdoneyet]

So in this scenario, the cap rises 5m (which is a pretty conservative estimate) compared to now, and our expenditures rise 4.4m compared to now.
That means we have 0.6m more than we do now for the rest of the roster, so how exactly are we going to drop from top tier team to not making the playoffs?

We can add many 1m dollar players but that doesn’t mean we make the playoffs.

15 players with 32 million to spend
We will spend at least 6 million on goalies.
13 players for 26 million
What about dmen
Your not getting sandin and lilly for 1.4 million after their roles get bigger. They will command at least 3M each
So 11 players at 20 m

Remains to be seen who we can get for minimum salary.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Literally none of this is accurate.

First off, nothing you've done here methodology-wise resembles anything I've said or done, now or in 2019. None of this is "my rules". You're just playing your own games again, misrepresenting arguments, and refusing to accept or discuss how things actually work.
Second, nothing you've said here fact-wise is true either. Nylander's per-60 metrics are not "significantly higher than Tkachuk or Forsberg". Where did you get that idea? Tkachuk does not pay 20% of his contract less in tax, and you can't just randomly boost contracts by millions. None of this was ever the argument or what people were telling you, now or in 2019.

But even within your own argument, where you believed all of the incorrect things you said to be true, the question becomes why, out of all of the dozens of possible comparables that exist, would you cherry pick ones that you believe signed in entirely different tax locations (that you believe fundamentally alters contract valuation) after putting up what you believe to be entirely different production, instead of picking ones that more closely matched Nylander's situation? Because it certainly seems like it's so that you could arbitrarily add millions onto the contract to get to the range you claim he's going to sign at, because there's no actual justification for those numbers.

I found an old thread where you specifically state that front-loading and signing bonuses are used by the leafs to "offset" the significant tax advantage players have in places like Florida.

Ok. Well, Matthew Tkachuck's contract is all signing bonuses and managed the way he desired (to get paid less on the next couple high escrow years).

Ok. So there's no advantage for the leafs there. So Nylander deserves significantly more money due to the tax problem, right? Stay consistent Dekes....

And other than Tkachucks contract year (we can't compare yet because Nylander hasn't started his yet), Nylander had a higher g/60 and p/60 every season other than his hold out season. So that's more money as well. And where's @Legion34 when it comes to these tax debates? He's made a borderline career out of defending Dubas's overpayments based on tax disadvantages. Not a peep from him regarding this?

And if you don't like Tkachuk as a comparable (because he doesn't fit your made up narrative), what are some others I should look into? Because I WILL look at their taxes and I WILL look at their /60 stats.

I'm honestly having fun here. This is a blast.

 

[ToneDog]

We can add many 1m dollar players but that doesn’t mean we make the playoffs.

15 players with 32 million to spend
We will spend at least 6 million on goalies.
13 players for 26 million
What about dmen
Your not getting sandin and lilly for 1.4 million after their roles get bigger. They will command at least 3M each
So 11 players at 20 m

Remains to be seen who we can get for minimum salary.

Say goodbye to Bunts, Kerfoot, Engvall, Sammy and possibly Kampf. Pray Woll can step up or it will be injury prone Murray and another cast off. Stanley Cup contender ??

 

[Gary Nylund]

Nylander is criminally underpaid and in poverty wages he's always been a star but these past years he's been a superstar. The leafs are lucky he was okay getting paid that little. Probably cause he grew up a millionaire so money wasn't that big a deal. Willy at the very least deserves 8.5 million. Lesser players are getting 8 million and everyone and their momma is getting theirs(marners influence. We love a trendsetter the rest of the league follows after it's been crucified). We can't afford all these star players unless they're fine with being underpaid and bc willy was in poverty and disrespected we were able to keep all our stars. Everyone say thank you willy. But after everyone contracts are up the cap is only going up 2 million. The core will not get to stay sadly.

LOL, are you high? When he signed his contract, nobody thought he was underpaid and many thought he was overpaid. What he got was at worst, a fair deal for him based on his performance up to that point and he was useless that first season as well.

Back then I would have agreed with you, bit ever since his contract marner has been the most scrutinized and hated player on this team. And he knows it. He hasn't forgotten about 2019 and 2021 and even last october, and how he gets treated by the fanbase(not all) and the media. In fact he even said, he's happy to play for the team and having fun NOWADAYS.hes truly taken for granted bc ppl abuse him too much and expect him to stay when he could be the one who wants to leave the most. If they don't have a deep run or win the cup this year and austons contract ends too and he's the scapegoat yet again, I bet you he's going to another team

Yall already treat him like shit. That man ain't getting a discount for a fickle shifty fanbase who's been abusing him for years.

LOL, are you high? Marner loves his home town and lately he's been getting so much love, he might be the most overrated player on the team at this point.

 

[ULF_55]

I'd be okay with trading him for an extended Bo Horvat.
Horvat really might be a fit for Tavares, so you re-unite Matthews-marner.
Might leave enough money to re-sign Bunting.
Nylander one of my favorite Leafs, but I'm partial to Swedes as Salming and Hammarstrom were brought in when I was a very young man. Hammarstrom wasn't nearly as bad as Cherry devotees put on.
Be interesting to see Nylander and Pettersson skating together.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I found an old thread where you specifically state that front-loading and signing bonuses are used by the leafs to "offset" the significant tax advantage players have in places like Florida.
Ok. Well, Matthew Tkachuck's contract is all signing bonuses and managed the way he desired (to get paid less on the next couple high escrow years).
Ok. So there's no advantage for the leafs there. So Nylander deserves significantly more money due to the tax problem, right? Stay consistent Dekes....

I am staying consistent. The issue is that your conclusion is not something I or anybody has ever said. Yes, it's true that front-loading and signing bonuses are types of incentives that teams can give players when they can't provide tax incentives. No, that doesn't mean that you can go around picking comparables in low-tax states and adding millions onto their contracts because they got signing bonuses. You know that's not how this works.

And other than Tkachucks contract year (we can't compare yet because Nylander hasn't started his yet), Nylander had a higher g/60 and p/60 every season other than his hold out season.

Again, that's not true. Where are you getting this idea? You also can't just arbitrarily remove Tkachuk's best year - which for the record, was actually his age 24 season, which Nylander has completed.

And if you don't like Tkachuk as a comparable (because he doesn't fit your made up narrative), what are some others I should look into?

It wasn't about liking or not liking Tkachuk as a comparable. It's just odd that out of everybody, you would choose somebody as a comparable who, according to you, isn't a comparable, and then try to close this perceived gap by just arbitrarily adding on millions of dollars. I'm not really interested in doing an in-depth contract valuation analysis when Nylander is still half a year from even being eligible, and we don't have the full picture of his pre-signing production, but when you're here fearmongering with false statements, unjustifiable ranges, and horribly incorrect methodology, it deserves to be corrected. If you're really amped to look for comparables, I would suggest selecting a bunch, and looking for similar signing situations, age ranges, pre-signing production, etc.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We can add many 1m dollar players but that doesn’t mean we make the playoffs.

15 players with 32 million to spend
We will spend at least 6 million on goalies.
13 players for 26 million
What about dmen
Your not getting sandin and lilly for 1.4 million after their roles get bigger. They will command at least 3M each
So 11 players at 20 m

Remains to be seen who we can get for minimum salary.

Again though, in your scenario, the cap is rising more than your noted expenses. How is having more money than we have now to supplement those players going to drop us from top-tier to non-playoff? If we can do it now, why is doing it in 2 years impossible?

We should have some prospects filling some roles by then, and Dubas has shown to be really good at targeting quality depth for cheap in UFA, and leveraging his stars and team quality and history to get discounts. It's way too early to be making assumptions about what's going to happen, but there's panic every single year, and we always end up just fine. And it's really only tight for 1 year. And the cap is probably rising more than 4m in 2024.