Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (F) - PART III

[Alfie11]

We drafted him because the scouts think he can be an impact top six power forward.

The player has been drafted, it’s up to him now, with some guidance and support, to meet his potential.

End of story.

Exactly. They didn't draft a player to be Chris Neil or a guy with limited offensive upside to save money. The Sens thought they were getting a top six, physical forward. We'll see if they got it right.

 

[OD99]

Well for one Chris Kreider. He regularly takes place in the fastest skater competition in the all star game and tends to rank pretty high. Alex Ovechkin and Josh Anderson are pretty fast as well. I would need to do some research to offer a more comprehensive list but there are certainly very fast players both in the league currently and in the past that have been over 220 lbs.

As for physical maturity just because he is more physically mature than other prospects doesn't mean he has reached his genetic athletic potential. I think it is a bit of a misconception when evaluating prospects to assume that just because a prospect is more physically developed than other prospects and that there isn't a lot more room for them to become substantially more physically developed.

Boucher is 19 years old and was listed at 6'1 205 lbs at 18 years old when he was drafted. He could get a lot heavier and substantially more powerful.

The average age of peak performance for male Olympic weightlifters is 26 years old.
Performance Development From Youth to Senior and Age of Peak Performance in Olympic Weightlifting.

The average age of peak performance for powerlifters is 34 years old.
At what age are we the strongest? Surprising truth
How old are the best athletes in weightlifting and powerlifting

According to some of the research there the average age of peak performance for specific lifts is:
Snatch (26.4 years), Clean & Jerk (26.1 years), Bench Press (34.3 years), Squat (34.1 years) and Deadlift (33.5 years)

If the most powerful athletes in the world who dedicate themselves full time to power development don't peak in performance until those age ranges then it doesn't make sense to assume that an 18 or 19 year old hockey player has peaked or come close to peaking their power potential.

The fact that Boucher is so dedicated to physical development makes him more likely to reach his peak power potential than others who aren't as dedicated. It is also quite likely that his gap in power relative to his peers at a similar age will likely remain the same and potentially grow larger over the course of his career.

OK, I appreciate the response.

Personally comparing him to a genetic freak like Ovechkin makes for a tough comparison and all 3 of the guys you listed are 6'3" so could carry a bit more weight. I wasn't suggesting it was impossible, just that you see a lot of guys bulk up and lose speed or their frame should only carry so much weight.

Anything is possible and I hope he goes the way of the power lifters and is at his fastest when he is 34 years old.

 

[PlayersLtd]

Putting the Boucher debate aside for a moment, anyone who said hitting is an easy skill is flat out wrong. It takes a certain type of strength, athleticism and timing on top of a predatory mindset and some fearlessness because retribution is always hiding around the corner.

Why do you think Alexei Emelin, who brought barely anything else to the table, was distinguished as an NHL player for a period of time? Conversely, why do you think PK Subban, who desperately wanted to be a physical presence, intimidated nobody?

The Formenton example was used because he was a physical presence in Jr. and the A but his physicality has noticeably dropped at the NHL level, because he hasn't been able to translate it, yet. We're seeing a similar thing happening to Kastelic.

Hitting is a skill, no question about it, and it's harder and harder to do in the NHL because of the speed, awareness and elusiveness of the average player.

Back to Boucher- if he can be a physical (or even punishing presence) on the third line while sprinkling in enough skill to drive some possession and put up 40 pts, that will be a nice player to have. Perhaps not 10 OA nice by everyone's standards, but more than serviceable and a solid ingredient for a contender.

That's a realistic outcome for Boucher, imo. Could be better, hopefully isn't worse.

 

[Sens Vader]

I'm telling you, the moment he trucks a leaf's player through the boards into the 200 section were all gonna be fans

 

[Icelevel]

You know a top 10 pick isn't tracking well when ppl start comparing them to scrubs.

Anyone can make up comparisons. Means nothing. Let him get here first.

 

[OD99]

Putting the Boucher debate aside for a moment, anyone who said hitting is an easy skill is flat out wrong. It takes a certain type of strength, athleticism and timing on top of a predatory mindset and some fearlessness because retribution is always hiding around the corner.

Why do you think Alexei Emelin, who brought barely anything else to the table, was distinguished as an NHL player for a period of time? Conversely, why do you think PK Subban, who desperately wanted to be a physical presence, intimidated nobody?

Nobody said it was easy but it is the easiest of skills compared to scoring, being an elite speed demon, dangling, etc...

The Formenton example was used because he was a physical presence in Jr. and the A but his physicality has noticeably dropped at the NHL level, because he hasn't been able to translate it, yet. We're seeing a similar thing happening to Kastelic.

The Formenton angle is so over played here. He wasn't some hitting machine in junior or the A. He is a physical player who doesn't mind getting in the corners and his nose dirty. He has increased his physical play each year in the NHL and I expect that to continue.

Hitting is a skill, no question about it, and it's harder and harder to do in the NHL because of the speed, awareness and elusiveness of the average player.

100% agree which is why I also temper my expectations on Boucher. He hasn't even played a game in the AHL yet somehow it is a given that he will lay out NHL size/skilled players.

You really think he is going to be laying guys out every shift? He will be getting bits and pieces of d-men like all players do and once in a blue moon will get a big bang that the D will shake off and the game will carry on.

Back to Boucher- if he can be a physical (or even punishing presence) on the third line while sprinkling in enough skill to drive some possession and put up 40 pts, that will be a nice player to have. Perhaps not 10 OA nice by everyone's standards, but more than serviceable and a solid ingredient for a contender.

If he gets 40 points and is this mythical physical beast everyone should be ecstatic about him. He may get there BUT he barely went .5PPG in the OHL in D+1 so for him to jump to that same average in the NHL is going to be a massive lift.

That's a realistic outcome for Boucher, imo. Could be better, hopefully isn't worse.

I hope you are right but I don't think it is reasonable at all yet given what we have seen. He will be given all the time to build his game to that level but it would be a huge jump in his development that not many before him have been able to accomplish.

 

[jake1]

Not comparing the players at all, but just to the point of average size guys having the gift of hitting, Oshie has been laying bigger guys out for 20 years, going back to high school. Just freakishly strong on his skates. In the WJC, he crushed a Russian, then when another Russian came for payback on the same shift, he went flying as well. I'm a firm believer that it's a rare gift to be able to explode your shoulder into another player with devastating impact. I think we've seen that with Boucher. Of course Oshie is ridiculously shifty and skilled, and Boucher isn't that player, so not a comp at all. But average size guys can be skilled hitters.

 

[R2010]

I'm telling you, the moment he trucks a leaf's player through the boards into the 200 section were all gonna be fans

Doubt it

 

[Sens Vader]

Doubt it

Then he’ll just have to fight Sillinger to show who’s the alpha male

Winner gets the the opponents girlfriend and his land.

 

[benjiv1]

I didn’t like Mann’s rational behind the Boucher pick, but I still think he could end up being something of value. We probably shouldn’t have spent a top 10 pick on him is all.

Formenton-Greig-Boucher might end up giving teams fits for years.

 

[R We A Team]

So how much longer you guys gonna cry over Boucher?

Boo hoo, we didn't draft Sillinger... You know who else we didn't draft? Get over it all ready. Try getting behind the guys we actually have instead of always, and I do mean always, wanting the other guy.

This place cried rivers over Zadina and countless others, seems now we are adding a new twist in not only complaining about who we didn't get but also complaining about who we did get.

Ya, ya, complaining about the complainers is nothing new as well, however, it is not near as tiresome as the same story every single post of how we should've taken Sillinger.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

I didn’t like Mann’s rational behind the Boucher pick, but I still think he could end up being something of value. We probably shouldn’t have spent a top 10 pick on him is all.

Formenton-Greig-Boucher might end up giving teams fits for years.

The thing is, if Boucher somewhat develops, you don't find those players for cheap.

I imagine Mann and the sens thought Boucher would get around 20 goals a season with Ottawa's better players throwing hits and keeping the other team honest.

Unless his skills stop processing, worse case he'll be a bottom 6 guy the sens keep around for a while. Not what you want for a top 10 selection, but a lot of players drafted that high are either top 6 players, or bust. Boucher should be able to play some NHL games

 

[JD1]

Boucher was selected 10th. I wonder if we'd had the 11th oa and taken him if there'd be less belly aching simply due to dropping the top 10 moniker

 

[BondraTime]

Boucher was selected 10th. I wonder if we'd had the 11th oa and taken him if there'd be less belly aching simply due to dropping the top 10 moniker

I doubt it, exact same scenario with a huge reach for a type of player you don’t usually use a high pick on.

If Sillinger was gone, likely takes away some of the stigma with how easy a layup picking him was.

Need to forget about where he was chosen and just think of him as a long term guy. He’s got a skill set that will make him a fan favorite, very likely doesn’t have the skill set to match the draft position.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

So how much longer you guys gonna cry over Boucher?

Boo hoo, we didn't draft Sillinger... You know who else we didn't draft? Get over it all ready. Try getting behind the guys we actually have instead of always, and I do mean always, wanting the other guy.

This place cried rivers over Zadina and countless others, seems now we are adding a new twist in not only complaining about who we didn't get but also complaining about who we did get.

Ya, ya, complaining about the complainers is nothing new as well, however, it is not near as tiresome as the same story every single post of how we should've taken Sillinger.

Well, it's been less than a year, so it's not like it's some long standing irrelevant grievance.

People keep comparing this pick to Tkachuk/Zadina. They are not the same at all for several reasons. Tkachuk was NOT a massive reach like Boucher; he was drafted right around where he was slotted to go. Sure some were over the top in their criticism of the pick but it wasn't almost universally questioned around the league, like BOucher was. And while people were critical of the pick they changed their tune pretty quick after he was drafted. Brady showed he was worthy of the pick just about right away and people got behind that. Boucher has not even come close to justifying his draft slot. YET.

The kid has lots of runway so we need to just hope he turns it around. It'd be nice to have him be a contributor the NHL team's success somewhere down the road.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

So how much longer you guys gonna cry over Boucher?

Boo hoo, we didn't draft Sillinger... You know who else we didn't draft? Get over it all ready. Try getting behind the guys we actually have instead of always, and I do mean always, wanting the other guy.

This place cried rivers over Zadina and countless others, seems now we are adding a new twist in not only complaining about who we didn't get but also complaining about who we did get.

Ya, ya, complaining about the complainers is nothing new as well, however, it is not near as tiresome as the same story every single post of how we should've taken Sillinger.

"Stop criticizing this team's shitty decisions"

 

[Ice-Tray]

"Stop criticizing this team's shitty decisions"

Sooooo, when is enough enough though in regards to the pick?

I mean pretty everyone has who posts has registered their opinions, do we really need to go on and on about it?

There is literally nothing left to do now but to watch how he develops, and hope for the best.

Or I guess continue to butch and moan about it while pretending that there is opposition to the prevailing opinion.

It was a reach and he hasn’t performed well to date for a variety of reasons. At the moment Sillinger looks like he would have been a much better pick.

Everyone pretty much agrees on subject, the only division is between those who are done with the bitching, and those that require more bitching. As always.

It’s the HFSens way

 

[God Says No]

Sooooo, when is enough enough though in regards to the pick?

I mean pretty everyone has who posts has registered their opinions, do we really need to go on and on about it?

There is literally nothing left to do now but to watch how he develops, and hope for the best.

Or I guess continue to butch and moan about it while pretending that there is opposition to the prevailing opinion.

It was a reach and he hasn’t performed well to date for a variety of reasons. At the moment Sillinger looks like he would have been a much better pick.

Everyone pretty much agrees on subject, the only division is between those who are done with the bitching, and those that require more bitching. As always.

It’s the HFSens way

Do you ever post about actual hockey and hockey players? I think you're on the wrong board.

 

[OD99]

Or I guess continue to butch and moan about it while pretending that there is opposition to the prevailing opinion.

Everyone pretty much agrees on subject, the only division is between those who are done with the bitching, and those that require more bitching. As always.

It’s the HFSens way

There are people having a discussion with many looking at the rosier side as opposed to the view that the pick looks pretty bad.

Who is coming just to complain?

 

[OD99]

So how much longer you guys gonna cry over Boucher?

Boo hoo, we didn't draft Sillinger... You know who else we didn't draft? Get over it all ready. Try getting behind the guys we actually have instead of always, and I do mean always, wanting the other guy.

This place cried rivers over Zadina and countless others, seems now we are adding a new twist in not only complaining about who we didn't get but also complaining about who we did get.

Ya, ya, complaining about the complainers is nothing new as well, however, it is not near as tiresome as the same story every single post of how we should've taken Sillinger.

Think you are seeing what you want to see.

There have been discussions on building explosive strength, how hard/easy it is to be a legit physical player and yes discussions on his current and future development.

I dont see many whiners but I do see a fair bit of civil discussion so not sure what the problem is.

 

[Ice-Tray]

There are people having a discussion with many looking at the rosier side as opposed to the view that the pick looks pretty bad.

Who is coming just to complain?

I guess you don’t see what you don’t want to see.

 

[Larionov]

Back to Boucher- if he can be a physical (or even punishing presence) on the third line while sprinkling in enough skill to drive some possession and put up 40 pts, that will be a nice player to have. Perhaps not 10 OA nice by everyone's standards, but more than serviceable and a solid ingredient for a contender.

That's a realistic outcome for Boucher, imo. Could be better, hopefully isn't worse.

Hey, if that ends up being the outcome for Boucher, then it was a good pick in a weak draft year. I'm far from convinced it will be, but here's hoping.

This has been said before, but it bears repeating - only about half of NHL first round picks ever go on to sign a significant second NHL contract. As a fan, it's worth going occasionally to check the last, say, ten years worth of first round picks. I promise that the number of guys taken in the top half of the first round who largely or completely washed out will shock you.

I'm a big football nerd also, so the differences between drafting in football vs hockey always interests me. The NHL is just so fundamentally different from the NFL (and CFL), who are drafting 22 year olds as largely finished products athletically. We are drafting 18 year olds, and projecting ahead on them both in terms of athleticism and character. Big time NCAA football programs bring in all kinds of "five star" high school recruits who often wash out, while the one star kid, or walk on, ends up becoming a great starter for them. In other words, they suffer with the same problem that NHL teams do in guessing on 18 year olds.

Back to Boucher, I still believe that the Sens were guilty of too much projection. In a frustrating COVID year where no one played much and no scouts got a good look at anyone, Mann decided to play a hunch to try to hit a home run instead of just going by what limited tape and looks he had. If it works, he's a hero. If it didn't, he's a bum. For now, it looks like it blew up on him, but Boucher will get two more seasons to prove that he is worthy of that second contract...

 

[JungleBeat]

The usual suspects are derailing threads complaining about other posters.

Lets stick to the topic about Boucher being a bust.

 

[Mingus Dew]

Bad pick. Hopefully Boucher turns it around and becomes a useful player for the Sens,

Saying "we can't criticize the pick because we need to see what Boucher becomes" is just a roundabout defense of the pick. The mental gymnastics that go on around here sometimes...

If you think it was a good pick then cool. I disagree but everyone is entitled to their opinion. But stand behind your position instead of trying to fence sit while chiding other posters.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

The usual suspects are derailing threads complaining about other posters.

Lets stick to the topic about Boucher being a bust.

Lol come on. You were so on the right track. Your comment at the end is just as anti-discussion as the people saying we should drop the critique and just focus on the good, though.

No one disagree's he's a bad pick, but if Boucher plays 500 games, he's not a bust. And if he's healthy, he should be able to hit that bench mark. Or do you think its a given that he is no more than a cup of coffee NHLer? How many games have you watched of his? From what I've seen, I don't see a guy who is sure-fire top 6 or even top 9, or even likely top 6 or top 9, but I definitely see a guy with the speed, strength, smarts, shot and sense to play an effective bottom 6 game.