Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (F) - PART III

[The Devilish Buffoon]

said it after my first viewing but he is so much slicker with the puck than most seem to want to give him credit for

I'm gonna see him live for the first time later this week, this has stood out to me in clips too & I'm looking forward to seeing how it looks live & up close.

 

[Alfie11]

I love Tyler Boucher and although taking him at No. 10 OA was probably always going to be a reach (and potentially set him up for failure through no fault of his own), I can see why Ottawa drafted him when they did. He spent most of his time battling injuries last year, but when he was on the ice for the NTDP he was in a league of his own. Just a complete mutant out there who can play the game fast, hard and punishing in more ways than one.

I know everyone on twitter these days (especially the hockey player card crew) likes to dig him and the senators any chance they get, but regardless, Boucher makes an on-ice impact whenever he's out there. The production factor isn't a good look for the No. 10 OA prospect, but then again, an injury-riddled campaign saw him ranked No. 29 OA by Bobby Mac on TSN's final rankings, ahead of high-production prospects in the likes of Pastujov, Olausson and Samoskevich.

Had he not been battling injuries all of his draft year, where would he have been ranked in a perfect world? Probably not viewed as an outlandish prospect at No. 10 OA, I'd imagine. Anyways, enjoy watching Boucher develop and physically dominate wherever he's playing while trying to tune out the outside noise, sickos.

Awesome post. I fell in love with his scouting report last year. I'm not sure the numbers will be 10th overall worthy but he may make a real impact.

A big, fast guy who loves to throw those big hits is not that common. If he can score 15-20 goals and act as a heat seeking missile on one of the top 3 lines, that's a decent pick.

I do think the Sens may have misjudged his offensive upside or underestimated the potential of guys taken after him...but he's our pick and I hope it works out.

 

[TheDebater]

I'm gonna see him live for the first time later this week, this has stood out to me in clips too & I'm looking forward to seeing how it looks live & up close.

I was not only surprised by his smooth skating but also his wicked wrist shot. It is without a doubt NHL calibre and that combined with his physicality, strength and speed should make him an NHL player at some point who can contribute at worst in a 3rd or 4th line role.

That might be disappointing to some but the alternative is a full on bust of a player that can't even crack a 4th line consistently like say Logan Brown.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I was not only surprised by his smooth skating but also his wicked wrist shot. It is without a doubt NHL calibre and that combined with his physicality, strength and speed should make him an NHL player at some point who can contribute at worst in a 3rd or 4th line role.

That might be disappointing to some but the alternative is a full on bust of a player that can't even crack a 4th line consistently like say Logan Brown.

I'd rather draft players like Brown that have a chance to be a star player, even if they bust more often than not, than knowingly spend a top 10 pick on a likely bottom 6 forward.

But no the alternative to Boucher was not only boom/bust players like Brown, but guys like Sillinger, Coronato, and Othmann - all of whom have top 6 skill but also throw the body and project as NHLers whether it's in the top 6 or further down the lineup.

 

[TheDebater]

I'd rather draft players like Brown that have a chance to be a star player, even if they bust more often than not, than knowingly spend a top 10 pick on a likely bottom 6 forward.

But no the alternative to Boucher was not only boom/bust players like Brown, but guys like Sillinger, Coronato, and Othmann - all of whom have top 6 skill but also throw the body and project as NHLers whether it's in the top 6 or further down the lineup.

See, I would rather that too, along with maybe every single member on this forum. I also doubt he was picked with the expectation that his ceiling is a 3rd liner in the NHL. However with that said, if you go back and catch up to what most of us agreed upon a few pages ago, is that it is time to maybe potentially possibly get over the fact we picked Boucher at #10, and start discussing the player that is and where he could end up.

Because if Boucher makes the NHL, and carves out a long career even as a 3rd liner, that in itself will be seen as an accomplishment when compared to other picks in the 10-12 range throughout the history of the draft.

I mean, we are never going to be able to have reasonable discussion about this kid and his potential if we constantly have to stop and debate the reasoning for picking him at 10th overall in the first place.

 

[Hale The Villain]

See, I would rather that too, along with maybe every single member on this forum. I also doubt he was picked with the expectation that his ceiling is a 3rd liner in the NHL. However with that said, if you go back and catch up to what most of us agreed upon a few pages ago, is that it is time to maybe potentially possibly get over the fact we picked Boucher at #10, and start discussing the player that is and where he could end up.

Because if Boucher makes the NHL, and carves out a long career even as a 3rd liner, that in itself will be seen as an accomplishment when compared to other picks in the 10-12 range throughout the history of the draft.

I mean, we are never going to be able to have reasonable discussion about this kid and his potential if we constantly have to stop and debate the reasoning for picking him at 10th overall in the first place.

Ceiling is difficult to determine but realistically a 3rd liner is what should have been expected. Looking more like a future 4th line grinder right now but it's still early and he could turn it around.

Getting a 3rd line forward with a 10th OVR pick is not an accomplishment. It's better than an outright bust but it's not a win whatsoever.

Most of the value in a draft pick is the potential to get a legitimate difference maker (top 6 forward/top 4 defenseman/#1 goalie) on an ELC and then cost-controlled RFA contract long-term. Using a high pick on a grinder, developing him for years, and ending up with a replacement level (waiver wire quality) or slightly above replacement level player is a waste.

 

[Cosmix]

I think the criticism of many commenters is directed at Dorion and the scouting staff, not at the player himself.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Really excited for this kid to hit the ground running next season. The hints at what he could be in our lineup are more exciting to me than typical prospects.

 

[SlapJack]

Ceiling is difficult to determine but realistically a 3rd liner is what should have been expected. Looking more like a future 4th line grinder right now but it's still early and he could turn it around.

Getting a 3rd line forward with a 10th OVR pick is not an accomplishment. It's better than an outright bust but it's not a win whatsoever.

Most of the value in a draft pick is the potential to get a legitimate difference maker (top 6 forward/top 4 defenseman/#1 goalie) on an ELC and then cost-controlled RFA contract long-term. Using a high pick on a grinder, developing him for years, and ending up with a replacement level (waiver wire quality) or slightly above replacement level player is a waste.

I highly doubt that anyone involved in making the pick thought "3rd line grinder" ceiling. Boucher has some crazy good tools that could make him a force to be reckoned with. His ceiling is an impact player. If he scores over 20 goals with regularity and makes people shit their pants everytime he's on the ice, that's a guy I want on my team.

 

[TheDebater]

I highly doubt that anyone involved in making the pick thought "3rd line grinder" ceiling. Boucher has some crazy good tools that could make him a force to be reckoned with. His ceiling is an impact player. If he scores over 20 goals with regularity and makes people shit their pants everytime he's on the ice, that's a guy I want on my team.

This is so obvious to me I figured most people would understand it too. Boucher is a frustrating pick if you convince yourself to think management assumed "3rd liner, let's grab him" but he is definitely showing way more potential than a player who will top out as a 3rd or 4th liner.

Literally any player in the top 10 could end up busting, whether picked 1st or 9th, so why should Boucher not get the benefit of the doubt too @Hale The Villain

 

[bashbros32]

Ceiling is difficult to determine but realistically a 3rd liner is what should have been expected. Looking more like a future 4th line grinder right now but it's still early and he could turn it around.

Getting a 3rd line forward with a 10th OVR pick is not an accomplishment. It's better than an outright bust but it's not a win whatsoever.

Most of the value in a draft pick is the potential to get a legitimate difference maker (top 6 forward/top 4 defenseman/#1 goalie) on an ELC and then cost-controlled RFA contract long-term. Using a high pick on a grinder, developing him for years, and ending up with a replacement level (waiver wire quality) or slightly above replacement level player is a waste.

I am in no way suggesting that Boucher will ever be this player, however, would drafting a "3rd" liner like Palat - Goodrow - Coleman still be considered "not an accomplishment?" or are those players top 6 players who just got 3rd line time in tampa because of the insane depth of tampa?

 

[OD99]

...and makes people shit their pants everytime he's on the ice, that's a guy I want on my team.

Nobody in the NHL shit's their pants because they might get hit and like I said earlier it will be interesting to see how much running around he does when he needs to back it up by dropping the gloves.

He will need to do a lot more than hit.

 

[OD99]

I am in no way suggesting that Boucher will ever be this player, however, would drafting a "3rd" liner like Palat - Goodrow - Coleman still be considered "not an accomplishment?" or are those players top 6 players who just got 3rd line time in tampa because of the insane depth of tampa?

Palat waa drafted in the 7th round and Goodrow went undrafted.

Coleman was a 3rd round pick after putting up 92 points in 59 games (USHL) then putting up PPG over last 2 seasons in college. His season high in the NHL is 36 points.

Yes Boucher was injured and had other issues but he put up 11 points in 24 games (USHL) then 3 points in 17 college games. With his recent 3 point outing he has 10 points in 17 OHL games.

Any Senators fan wants him to succeed but waiting until playing in the NHL to show any scoring ability may never have happened before so I am not going to bank on it.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Eh, no rewards for hedging bets on hockey prospects, so I’m going to bank on a great season next year, and him becoming an impact player for our team

 

[SlapJack]

Nobody in the NHL shit's their pants because they might get hit and like I said earlier it will be interesting to see how much running around he does when he needs to back it up by dropping the gloves.

He will need to do a lot more than hit.

Well of course they don't shit their pants, they're not babies.

Every player that has a dominant trait forces you to play differently. Formenton will have defenders back up a bit, Stützle will get double teamed, and Norris will alter the shape of a penalty kill. Physicality does the same thing. It changes your thought process and you get rid of the puck quicker.

Anybody thinking he's just a hitter is stat watching. Numbers aren't there, but the tools are.

 

[OD99]

Well of course they don't shit their pants, they're not babies.

Every player that has a dominant trait forces you to play differently. Formenton will have defenders back up a bit, Stützle will get double teamed, and Norris will alter the shape of a penalty kill. Physicality does the same thing. It changes your thought process and you get rid of the puck quicker.

Anybody thinking he's just a hitter is stat watching. Numbers aren't there, but the tools are.

You realize I was quoting you, right? The whole, "every time he is on the ice guys shit their pants" was yours?

Lots of guys hit but even more know how to not get hit and still make plays. Or better, all know how to take a hit and make a play so they don't fundamentally alter their games because Boucher may try to hit them.

Minor leagues are full of guys with tools who don't know how to use them so until I see that (have seen him live a few times now) then I will remain hopeful yet skeptical.

When is the last time he put up numbers of any significance? Bantam I guess?

 

[Ice-Tray]

deleted

 

[Ice-Tray]

No league is full of guys that hit like that kid, he likes it.

 

[bert]

Hoping this results in an Alfie lead group with backing from the Desmerais family as the purchasers.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I highly doubt that anyone involved in making the pick thought "3rd line grinder" ceiling. Boucher has some crazy good tools that could make him a force to be reckoned with. His ceiling is an impact player. If he scores over 20 goals with regularity and makes people shit their pants everytime he's on the ice, that's a guy I want on my team.

I think it depends on how you define "3rd line". I look at guys like Marcus Foligno, Jeannot, Crouse, Sissons... they are all 3rd liners, but they are more valuable than a lot of 2nd line players around the league. They can play up in the top 6, but their style of play is most at home in the bottom 6. They can all score, and all will have years where they score a good amount, but it's not their bread and butter (other than maybe Jeannot... we will see).

I suspect the hope is that his ceiling is similar to Crouse. And Crouse definitely isn't the 10th best player from his draft (hard to be that when you're drafted in 2015), but he's a very good, unique, and valuable player.

 

[BondraTime]

I think it depends on how you define "3rd line". I look at guys like Marcus Foligno, Jeannot, Crouse, Sissons... they are all 3rd liners, but they are more valuable than a lot of 2nd line players around the league. They can play up in the top 6, but their style of play is most at home in the bottom 6. They can all score, and all will have years where they score a good amount, but it's not their bread and butter (other than maybe Jeannot... we will see).

I suspect the hope is that his ceiling is similar to Crouse. And Crouse definitely isn't the 10th best player from his draft (hard to be that when you're drafted in 2015), but he's a very good, unique, and valuable player.

The issue there is it took 7 years after Crouse’s draft for him to become a player that really has value around the league, and even then his ceiling is not remotely high.

And Crouse was a ppg guy at 17 in the OHL and a 1.3ppg guy at 18, while Boucher is 0.58ppg at 18 (through only 17 games to be fair, Crouse had 30 more games in his 18 year old season).

If Boucher has the same route and in 2028-29 he becomes a 25g, 40 point player like Crouse is on pace to be, that would be incredibly disappointing to wait 7 years of development time to get.

Crouse would be an unbelievable outcome based on what we’re seeing thus far.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

The issue there is it took 7 years after Crouse’s draft for him to become a player that really has value around the league, and even then his ceiling is not remotely high.

Well I am definitely not defending the value of the pick or the decision-making process, plus its not meant as a one for one comparison. But I wouldnt be surprised to see a similar trajectory, just with more jr/AHL development time for Boucher. 3yrs post-draft mostly in jr/AHL, 1 year where he splits time, full time in his D+5, and hopefully established in the top 9 shortly thereafter.

I know the name floated around after the draft was Tom Wilson, but I think that's basically just a cliche. Maybe if we are talking a poor mans Wilson.

 

[DJB]

Well I am definitely not defending the value of the pick or the decision-making process, plus its not meant as a one for one comparison. But I wouldnt be surprised to see a similar trajectory, just with more jr/AHL development time for Boucher. 3yrs post-draft mostly in jr/AHL, 1 year where he splits time, full time in his D+5, and hopefully established in the top 9 shortly thereafter.

I know the name floated around after the draft was Tom Wilson, but I think that's basically just a cliche. Maybe if we are talking a poor mans Wilson.

The notion that we might have a Tom Wilson on our hands is a bit of a fallacy. Is Tom Wilson really Tom Wilson without riding shotgun to Ovechkin and Backstrom? Hes not.

Boucher won't have that opportunity here at all. No player will.

I still have hope that he will become a 3rd liner who can at times play top 6 and play his game.

 

[BondraTime]

Well I am definitely not defending the value of the pick or the decision-making process, plus its not meant as a one for one comparison. But I wouldnt be surprised to see a similar trajectory, just with more jr/AHL development time for Boucher. 3yrs post-draft mostly in jr/AHL, 1 year where he splits time, full time in his D+5, and hopefully established in the top 9 shortly thereafter.

I know the name floated around after the draft was Tom Wilson, but I think that's basically just a cliche. Maybe if we are talking a poor mans Wilson.

I’m glad to have Boucher in our prospect pool, I’m very upset we used a prime top 10 pick to get him into the stable. Not his fault, at all, that the draft position, whether fairly or unfairly, adds expectations are unreasonable.

I think a guy like Clutterbuck, with hopefully some added offense, is the best comparable for Boucher.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

The issue there is it took 7 years after Crouse’s draft for him to become a player that really has value around the league, and even then his ceiling is not remotely high.

And Crouse was a ppg guy at 17 in the OHL and a 1.3ppg guy at 18, while Boucher is 0.58ppg at 18 (through only 17 games to be fair, Crouse had 30 more games in his 18 year old season).

If Boucher has the same route and in 2028-29 he becomes a 25g, 40 point player like Crouse is on pace to be, that would be incredibly disappointing to wait 7 years of development time to get.

Crouse would be an unbelievable outcome based on what we’re seeing thus far.

This year's Lawson Crouse would be great, at this point, for Boucher to turn into. For sure.

But some of these comparable players are just bizarre. Crouse? Wilson? These guys are huge and in Wilson's case he was fighting OHL heavyweights since age 16. Tyler Boucher is very physically mature and he's literally NHL league average in height and weight.

It's not really realistic, or fair, to expect Boucher to top out as a player like those guys.