Which superstars are likely to have a big drop in production ?

[ViD]

Which super star players might see a significant drop of production due to team changes, aging, other reasons?

I will start - Steven Stamkos

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[End on a Hinote]

The obvious - Crosby and Ovy.

Bold prediction, neither will make the all-star game.

 

[dgibb10]

JT Miller although I wouldn't class him as a superstar.

 

[NVious]

McDavid, he was only pretending to be good this entire time.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

JT Miller although I wouldn't class him as a superstar.

Quinn Hughes as well.

 

[Three On Zero]

Huberdeau

 

[Czechboy]

Sadly.. I think Ovy is about to drop. I hope I'm wrong.

Kopitar and doughty for kings?
I don't see Skinner kicking ass in Edmonton but, again, hope I'm wrong. Not sure if he counts as a star though.
Kane in Detroit? One of my all time favs so, again, I hope I'm wrong.
I do think jagr will kill it when he signs with an NHL club

 

[BB79]

I do think jagr will kill it when he signs with an NHL club

He'll sign with the Pens on his 60th birthday and probably put up 25 goals

 

[nowhereman]

The obvious - Crosby and Ovy.

Bold prediction, neither will make the all-star game.

Crosby is not "obvious". He'll flirt with 90+ points again and will captain Team Canada. The guy is superhuman. I mean, so is OV but he's a few years older.

Quinn Hughes as well.

Generally, players don't just drop off a cliff as they're entering their primes. Hughes has a better chance of eclipsing 100 points than he does of seeing his production drop significantly.

 

[Czechboy]

He'll sign with the Pens on his 60th birthday and probably put up 25 goals

No doubt in my mind lol

 

[AvatarAang]

Zach Hyman

It’s pretty easy to score 50+ goals when you are insanely rich

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

PLD?

 

[centipede2233]

Stamkos for sure. I’ll also say Sam Reinhart.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Sadly.. I think Ovy is about to drop. I hope I'm wrong.

Kopitar and doughty for kings?
I don't see Skinner kicking ass in Edmonton but, again, hope I'm wrong. Not sure if he counts as a star though.
Kane in Detroit? One of my all time favs so, again, I hope I'm wrong.
I do think jagr will kill it when he signs with an NHL club

What kind of drop for Ovi are we talking? He finished with 65 points last season. Is he gonna drop another 10 points? Or more? It's not like he has been producing at a superstar level for a couple of years now.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Crosby is not "obvious". He'll flirt with 90+ points again and will captain Team Canada. The guy is superhuman. I mean, so is OV but he's a few years older.


Generally, players don't just drop off a cliff as they're entering their primes. Hughes has a better chance of eclipsing 100 points than he does of seeing his production drop significantly.

Generally players revert back to their historical shooting %.

It jumped from 4.9 to 8.5 last season. That's the difference of 7-8 goals right off the bat.
Then factor in the teammates he's getting assists from. Boeser literally doubled his s% from his previous season, and Miller shot a career high 19%. Those two account for an extra nearly 30 more goals than expected.

Pretty much all of his analytics last season showed that his point totals were unsustainable. Its the same argument that people correctly projected after RNH's 100pt season in Edmonton. A lot of pucks went in last year for Vancouver, especially in the first half of the season, that usually don't go in.
I'm happy to check back at the end of the season to see which he was closer to: a drop in points, or 100+.

 

[Nico Hischier]

I don’t think panarin hits 120 points again but he could still get 100

 

[nowhereman]

Generally players revert back to their historical shooting %.

It jumped from 4.9 to 8.5 last season. That's the difference of 7-8 goals right off the bat.
Then factor in the teammates he's getting assists from. Boeser literally doubled his s% from his previous season, and Miller shot a career high 19%. Those two account for an extra nearly 30 more goals than expected.

Pretty much all of his analytics last season showed that his point totals were unsustainable. Its the same argument that people correctly projected after RNH's 100pt season in Edmonton. A lot of pucks went in last year for Vancouver, especially in the first half of the season, that usually don't go in.
I'm happy to check back at the end of the season to see which he was closer to: a drop in points, or 100+.

Hughes openly said that his shot was one of the weakest parts of his game and that he was going to focus more on putting himself in a position to score. Previous to that, he rarely opened up from the point and was more prone to float one in for a deflection/rebound. This saw his shooting percentage go up but not at an unsustainable level, since it was still behind guys like Makar, Josi, and Fox.

Hughes also put up a PPG the year prior, so I don't see him dipping below that. Even if he did go back to a PPG, that's not a "big drop" as asked by the OP. I think he'll end up in the 90-100 point range but I'd certainly put my chips on 100+ over him having a significant drop in production (i.e. 20+ points). The RNH situation was completely different. That was a 60-ish point player who suddenly put up 104 points in a single year. Hughes' production jumped up .1 over his previous year.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Hughes openly said that his shot was one of the weakest parts of his game and that he was going to focus more on putting himself in a position to score. Previous to that, he rarely opened up from the point and was more prone to float one in for a deflection/rebound. This saw his shooting percentage go up but not at an unsustainable level, since it was still behind guys like Makar, Josi, and Fox.

Hughes also put up a PPG the year prior, so I don't see him dipping below that. Even if he did go back to a PPG, that's not a "big drop" as asked by the OP. I think he'll end up in the 90-100 point range but I'd certainly put my chips on 100+ over him having a significant drop in production (i.e. 20+ points).

I guess 'big drop' is subjective then. When it comes to the elite defencemen, I'd consider 10 points a big drop in a season that many are expecting an increase.

Another thing that you might be vastly under considering the the liklihood that the entire collection of players on the PP1 unit collectively missing <5 total games all season due to injury. That is absurd.

 

[Fatass]

Matthews, Reindhardt, Stamkos, Kucherov, Hyman, Panarin, and Pastrnak.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Here's a list of top scorers who set career highs in points last year, by at least 10 points:

MacKinnon - 29
Panarin - 24
Kucherov - 16
Q.Hughes - 16
Reinhart - 12
Nylander - 11
Forsberg - 10

Note: The number beside their name is how much more points they scored over their previous career high. Scoring did go up a bit lately, so that's a factor to consider.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

The obvious - Crosby and Ovy.

Bold prediction, neither will make the all-star game.

It’s already started with Crosby. Two years ago he had 93 points. Last year only 94.

 

[End on a Hinote]

It’s already started with Crosby. Two years ago he had 93 points. Last year only 94.

He's like the Godfather Part III

Terrible in his own class, a masterpiece in anyone else's.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

The obvious - Crosby and Ovy.

Bold prediction, neither will make the all-star game.

Ovy yes, Crosby no. I could see Crosby flirting with 100 if the pp is even somewhat mediocre. He put up 94 with the 30th ranked pp.

 

[Khelandros]

What kind of drop for Ovi are we talking? He finished with 65 points last season. Is he gonna drop another 10 points? Or more? It's not like he has been producing at a superstar level for a couple of years now.

This would all depend on what we see.

Is he the Ovechkin that start the season with 8 goals, 19 assists in 41 games.

Or, is he the Ovechkin that ended the season with 23 goals, 15 assists in the last 41?

That is a 22 point difference over a whole season.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Huberdeau.