Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (F) - PART III

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Joeyjoejoe

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Dude's progression and production so far after being drafted is of a someone that was drafted in the later rounds. As the 10th overall, this is proving to be a reach every year. prove me wrong I suppose.
 

bert

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Dude's progression and production so far after being drafted is of a someone that was drafted in the later rounds. As the 10th overall, this is proving to be a reach every year. prove me wrong I suppose.
People are just going to have to accept the fact this is a long term prospect. Its been a tough year for his development but that doesnt mean he wont turn out when he is 22/23/24. Obviously we all wish they had picked Sillinger but whats done is done. The player him self has no control over where he is picked. Why not cheer him on? He made what I believe is a mature decision to switch from BU to the Ottawa 67's dispite what his family wanted. We all get to watch him play Jr here and he is getting prime minutes. Why not just enjoy watching him play here and being one of the 67's most important players.
 

Sens in Process

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I like his skill, athleticism and physically from my early viewings. He is quite explosive in his turns and pivots and does seem to make some plays with his hands.

Sens were probably uninspired by most of the available talent with the 10th pick in the 2021 draft and evaluated the lot as a bunch with middle six potential. Boucher offers maybe a similar upside with those intangibles the organization values so much. It worked with Brady, so it may also work here.

But looking at the prospect, forgetting draft position, I think there is a lot to be excited about and he should fit in well with the team that trying to be built by management.
 

Sting

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If he was an early 2nd rounder, there would not be this incredibly negative cloud lurking over Tyler.

I've said it before - I don't think the Sens were prepared for the scenario that played out during this draft when they chose Boucher. People also don't talk enough about how woefully understaffed the Sens scouting department is and how much better prepared they WOULD be if they invested more into personnel.
 

armani

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The Douche Tyler Boucher will make Dorion proud one day. I have liked this pick since Day 2 of the draft, as much as I wanted Sillinger on Day 1. I believe Trent Mann has a long-term vision for Boucher. Thicc and growing kid with a nasty attitude who can skate, punish, and has goal scoring abilities. He's been injured/COVID struck and hasn't played much meaningful hockey in the past two seasons, which are key developmental years. He really just got drafted and is still young enough to grow into something more than a top-9 NHLer, which I believe to be is his floor.

Key for him is to stay healthy and learn to dominate the opposing net against kids his age in the OHL. I expect a rough start as he has missed so much hockey but I am pumped to have him play and grow in our backyard!
 
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RAFI BOMB

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Are those your clips Rafi?

I'm not looking to make fun of the messenger and know you put a lot of effort in to your videos and clips, which I appreciate. So if those are yours I genuinely apologize as I didn't mean to dismiss the clips themselves.

I will stand by the idea that Boucher is getting different treatment and many are looking for any small sign to prove he will not bust.

He has lots of time and is essentially starting his development over with the move to Junior. Let's see how he is doing a month from now after he practices/plays without disruption for a while.

Clearly he is a polarizing player and will keep conversations going.
No, they aren't my clips. I just felt that based on your comment that my response was appropriate. I used to be more concerned with highlights but I have learned to appreciate just watching and analyzing the game. I find it interesting to just watch a player in isolation and try to determine the factors that lead to success and failure. Part of what influences my approach is that I am naturally inclined to think in a very abstract, conceptual and theoretical way. I take this same approach in everything I am interested in.

From a sport perspective, I feel I have a fairly deep understanding of combat sports. I understand and appreciate the technical details of boxing and mixed martial arts. If you show me a fight I could give you a quite detailed breakdown of why that outcome occurred and all the indicators and patterns that would have revealed why that outcome was likely to occur and even how the probability of that outcome was increasing over the duration of a fight. It is a theoretical approach that makes outcomes easier to predict. That ability to make predictions rests on a great appreciation for the technical details. It doesn't make the outcomes perfectly predictable but it does prove to be quite informative. Through that understanding it is easier to categorize fighters based on quality and offers a predictive model that helps determine which opponents a fighter will succeed against and which ones they won't. It also makes it fairly clear which fighters have a legitimate chance at winning a championship, which ones don't and what skills or technical details a particular fighter needs to improve upon in order to stand a legitimate chance of becoming a champion.

I take this same approach when analyzing hockey. I don't have the same depth of understanding but I strive to learn and comprehend the game. I watch players closely and attempt to conceptually understand the patterns of success. When evaluating prospects I am constantly comparing them against patterns that I have seen successful in the NHL. It is that same kind of theoretical approach I would take with a boxer. With evaluating boxers I need to watch them very closely and try to breakdown every little detail. With hockey, I do the same. Every little clip is loaded with information and patterns. The subtle details are very consequential. The highlights show the desired outcome but all the events that lead up to it offer the theoretical explanation of why it occurred. That theoretical explanation then helps to inform the patterns of success. The patterns then become something that can be replicated and taught; they become the foundation of technical skill. Therefore if I see those patterns it informs me that the desired outcome is becoming increasingly likely. The patterns don't have to achieve the desired outcome every time, they only need to be necessary factors to improving the probability of that desired outcome. Therefore if the patterns start repeating themselves it is really only a matter of time before that outcome occurs.
 

OD99

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No, they aren't my clips. I just felt that based on your comment that my response was appropriate. I used to be more concerned with highlights but I have learned to appreciate just watching and analyzing the game. I find it interesting to just watch a player in isolation and try to determine the factors that lead to success and failure. Part of what influences my approach is that I am naturally inclined to think in a very abstract, conceptual and theoretical way. I take this same approach in everything I am interested in.

From a sport perspective, I feel I have a fairly deep understanding of combat sports. I understand and appreciate the technical details of boxing and mixed martial arts. If you show me a fight I could give you a quite detailed breakdown of why that outcome occurred and all the indicators and patterns that would have revealed why that outcome was likely to occur and even how the probability of that outcome was increasing over the duration of a fight. It is a theoretical approach that makes outcomes easier to predict. That ability to make predictions rests on a great appreciation for the technical details. It doesn't make the outcomes perfectly predictable but it does prove to be quite informative. Through that understanding it is easier to categorize fighters based on quality and offers a predictive model that helps determine which opponents a fighter will succeed against and which ones they won't. It also makes it fairly clear which fighters have a legitimate chance at winning a championship, which ones don't and what skills or technical details a particular fighter needs to improve upon in order to stand a legitimate chance of becoming a champion.

I take this same approach when analyzing hockey. I don't have the same depth of understanding but I strive to learn and comprehend the game. I watch players closely and attempt to conceptually understand the patterns of success. When evaluating prospects I am constantly comparing them against patterns that I have seen successful in the NHL. It is that same kind of theoretical approach I would take with a boxer. With evaluating boxers I need to watch them very closely and try to breakdown every little detail. With hockey, I do the same. Every little clip is loaded with information and patterns. The subtle details are very consequential. The highlights show the desired outcome but all the events that lead up to it offer the theoretical explanation of why it occurred. That theoretical explanation then helps to inform the patterns of success. The patterns then become something that can be replicated and taught; they become the foundation of technical skill. Therefore if I see those patterns it informs me that the desired outcome is becoming increasingly likely. The patterns don't have to achieve the desired outcome every time, they only need to be necessary factors to improving the probability of that desired outcome. Therefore if the patterns start repeating themselves it is really only a matter of time before that outcome occurs.
Appreciate the thoughtful response again.

I will say if you took my comments to mean I only watch highlights and distill my thoughts from them you have me pegged wrong. I am all about the overall understanding of players and their impact to the team and their ability to play competitively, just not sure what a highlight of a guy screening a goalie proves.

Clearly can see he isn't some plug but lots of players have good skills and don't put them together.

I think it is more than fair and actually expected that we are able to say Boucher has had a disappointing run since he was drafted. Seems that unfortunately this place is quick to polarize though so for me to say that I must be a hater who doesn't believe in the org or the players - to the point I am told I should leave and go root for another team? WTactualF?

Kid hasn't impressed yet - it's a fact, not an opinion. Everyone should have the opinion that it is early and that he can still become an impact player but to pretend it's all good just for the sake of feeling like a good fan is ridiculous.
 

jbeck5

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What a train wreck. I hope somebody talks to the guy and explains that it's not some tryouts and he doesn't need to prove anything, so he can calm down and start working on his game.

Some guys actually like the rough stuff though, no matter what you tell them. Like, they actually enjoy looking for big hits and crunching the opponent.

Might be best to coach him how to make a clean hit rather than coaching him not to go for big hits.

Show him the modern Chris Neil way. How to have huge hits every other game without getting suspended.
 

NyQuil

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Some guys actually like the rough stuff though, no matter what you tell them. Like, they actually enjoy looking for big hits and crunching the opponent.

Might be best to coach him how to make a clean hit rather than coaching him not to go for big hits.

Show him the modern Chris Neil way. How to have huge hits every other game without getting suspended.

It's funny because physical play isn't something you can bring to the table in every game of the regular season - over 82 games, you would end up worn out, injured or worse.

You see a lot of people griping that "they don't bring it every game" when I think it's physically impossible to do so. The best at it can read the game and determine whether it's required or not based on the situation and the opponent.

A guy like Milan Lucic in his prime would disappear for games at a time, but in that comeback Game 7 against the Leafs, he imposed his will on his opposition and they could literally do nothing to stop him.

Guys like Brian McGrattan, as entertaining as it was to see him pound Tie Domi into irrelevance, has no real impact on the game because he was too slow and his physicality could only be brought to bear on rare occasions. You need guys who can skate and keep up with the play in order for forechecking hits to wear down the opposition and cause defencemen to make mistakes in their hurry to get rid of the puck and brace for impact.

I also strongly believe that we will never be able to afford a team that is a leader in the NHL in offensive categories, and we'll have to make up for that with types of play that may not factor into arbitration and contract amounts to the same degree.

Tyler Boucher has gone from a reach to a bust to a reclamation project in less than a year. I think we're going to have to be extremely patient before we really know what we have with him.

Nick Paul was in his mid 20s before he really cracked the league.
 

RAFI BOMB

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Appreciate the thoughtful response again.

I will say if you took my comments to mean I only watch highlights and distill my thoughts from them you have me pegged wrong. I am all about the overall understanding of players and their impact to the team and their ability to play competitively, just not sure what a highlight of a guy screening a goalie proves.

Clearly can see he isn't some plug but lots of players have good skills and don't put them together.

I think it is more than fair and actually expected that we are able to say Boucher has had a disappointing run since he was drafted. Seems that unfortunately this place is quick to polarize though so for me to say that I must be a hater who doesn't believe in the org or the players - to the point I am told I should leave and go root for another team? WTactualF?

Kid hasn't impressed yet - it's a fact, not an opinion. Everyone should have the opinion that it is early and that he can still become an impact player but to pretend it's all good just for the sake of feeling like a good fan is ridiculous.
Yeah, assessment of Boucher and all subsequent discussions have become quite polarizing. I think there are a lot of different arguments taking place that haven't been fully articulated and that is creating some of the polarization. One of those debates could be asking the question "What constitutes a sufficiently good prospect worthy of being drafted 10th overall?". The evaluations of Boucher are relative to the expectations that each person has based on the answer to that question. Another debate could be asking the question "What constitutes a good prospect?" How people answer that question will determine what they think of Boucher.

It is understandable the position some are taking on here. They are essentially arguing that Boucher's performance thus far, since being drafted, has been inadequate (and possibly woefully so) relative to their expectations of what kind of performance should be reasonably expected from a 10th overall pick and therefore they are skeptical (and potentially highly so) that drafting Boucher 10th overall was a sound decision. That is a pretty reasonable stance to take. It is understandable that those persons would be disappointed and that they would need to see something much more significant from Boucher in order to feel less skeptical.

Others have taken a more divisive stance. They were convinced from the moment of the draft that Boucher was not a sufficiently good prospect to be drafted 10th overall, they have serious doubts about his quality as a prospect (and in some cases don't even think he is a good prospect at all), and have used Boucher's early struggles as absolute confirmation of their initial assessments. These individuals are completely dismissive of all positive qualities Boucher may possess, frequently call him a bust and actually seem more interested in seeing him fail so they can be proven correct in their initial assessments than displaying any hopefulness that Boucher proves them wrong. There is a bit of an overlap of those two groups and sometimes they use the same arguments. At times the subtext of those arguments really come across as making the claim that "Boucher is shit and anyone who thinks he isn't shit is an idiot". That can be pretty insulting to some so there can be a more defensive reaction.

There has actually been an abundance of pessimism around this pick and that can be frustrating to continually hear. I think there is a much more general consensus that people are relatively disappointed with the outcome so far. The Boucher fans know that he has struggled and are disappointed that he hasn't demonstrated more. They look for the positives in his game and try to remain optimistic when confronted with a lot of pessimism and cynicism from others. Boucher moved on from BU and joined the 67's so at least some of us were understanding that prospects go through struggles and that this is an opportunity for him to figure out his game. But honestly, the pessimists and cynics are
inescapable. After he signed with the Sens on the Senators twitter and 67's twitter announcing Boucher signings and joining the team there were plenty of comments calling this a "shit pick" and a "bust". Personally, I think it is a bit much for people to do that. This in an 18 year old kid who knows that he is struggling, looks for a change of scenery and if he looks on the Sens or 67's twitter he can automatically see comments writing him off completely. Tkachuk even stated in an interview prior to the draft that he saw the negative comments about him being drafted and they were hard to hear and asked for people to maybe hold back with some of that negativity, that this is their dream to get drafted and to maybe try to be a little more supportive.

Much like those twitter comments, I question some of what gets posted in this thread. A lot of us realize that a chunk of people have completely written off Boucher and probably don't even want him to succeed. The rest of us would actually like to see him succeed so we continue to follow his developments and look for the positives and understand it is going to be a process. So when people come back into this thread and shit on him again it is questionable about what they are actually contributing to the discussion. It is one thing to add something to the discussion even if it is criticism but it is another thing to essentially jump in and make statements that essentially imply "He is shit and everyone who thinks he isn't shit is an idiot". If you are getting a defensive reaction on here it is probably because what you are saying is sounding a lot like that message whether you intend it or not. From what you have stated it doesn't seem like it was your intention so people will question making that assumption in the future.
 
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jbeck5

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It's funny because physical play isn't something you can bring to the table in every game of the regular season - over 82 games, you would end up worn out, injured or worse.

You see a lot of people griping that "they don't bring it every game" when I think it's physically impossible to do so. The best at it can read the game and determine whether it's required or not based on the situation and the opponent.

A guy like Milan Lucic in his prime would disappear for games at a time, but in that comeback Game 7 against the Leafs, he imposed his will on his opposition and they could literally do nothing to stop him.

Guys like Brian McGrattan, as entertaining as it was to see him pound Tie Domi into irrelevance, has no real impact on the game because he was too slow and his physicality could only be brought to bear on rare occasions. You need guys who can skate and keep up with the play in order for forechecking hits to wear down the opposition and cause defencemen to make mistakes in their hurry to get rid of the puck and brace for impact.

I also strongly believe that we will never be able to afford a team that is a leader in the NHL in offensive categories, and we'll have to make up for that with types of play that may not factor into arbitration and contract amounts to the same degree.

Tyler Boucher has gone from a reach to a bust to a reclamation project in less than a year. I think we're going to have to be extremely patient before we really know what we have with him.

Nick Paul was in his mid 20s before he really cracked the league.

All I'm saying is some guys like the rough stuff and others don't.

You can tell Nick Paul is finishing his check because he has to.

You can tell Brady tkachuk is finishing his check because he wants to.

Boucher is the latter. Coaches shouldn't be telling him not to go for big hits as that is what he's always done. That's what he likes doing. That's what got him drafted.

They're better off showing him how to go for those big hits in a clean manner rather than showing him how not to go for big hits.

I bring up Neil. Sure, some games are more physical than others, but he always finished his checks with passion. That's like Boucher. You can't coach him not to do that.
 

aragorn

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If he was an early 2nd rounder, there would not be this incredibly negative cloud lurking over Tyler.

I've said it before - I don't think the Sens were prepared for the scenario that played out during this draft when they chose Boucher. People also don't talk enough about how woefully understaffed the Sens scouting department is and how much better prepared they WOULD be if they invested more into personnel.

Didn't they have exactly the same scouting department in place this past yr as the yr before where they selected Stutzle, Sanderson, Greig, Jarventie, Kleven & Sokolov in the first two rds which all look like home runs & base hits? Maybe they have a lot more faith in their own knowledge on who they think fits best with their org than the majority of people on here.

No team hits a home run with every pick or every draft, mistakes are made constantly at every draft by every team. It's still way too early to make any difinitive conclusions with this guy when he looks like he has a decent amount of skill for a physical player.
 

HSF

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Didn't they have exactly the same scouting department in place this past yr as the yr before where they selected Stutzle, Sanderson, Greig, Jarventie, Kleven & Sokolov in the first two rds which all look like home runs & base hits? Maybe they have a lot more faith in their own knowledge on who they think fits best with their org than the majority of people on here.

No team hits a home run with every pick or every draft, mistakes are made constantly at every draft by every team. It's still way too early to make any difinitive conclusions with this guy when he looks like he has a decent amount of skill for a physical player.
big thing with last year is the there was limited viewing of a lot of players. I wonder if a bigger staff or more resources would help teams in that situation

We would need to know the ins and outs of how each team handled it I guess
 

aragorn

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big thing with last year is the there was limited viewing of a lot of players. I wonder if a bigger staff or more resources would help teams in that situation

We would need to know the ins and outs of how each team handled it I guess
Yes, but every team was in that situation, players couldn't play almost anywhere in the world & when they did people couldn't go see them so no amount of money would have changed that, I don't think.

I'm not arguing against the scouting department growing, I'm just saying they did fine before & these kids are being scouted to death these days with all the prospect sites & scouting services besides the NHL. Most of the top prospects have a ton of information & video to analyse about them way before the draft.
 

HSF

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Yes, but every team was in that situation, players couldn't play almost anywhere in the world & when they did people couldn't go see them so no amount of money would have changed that, I don't think.

I'm not arguing against the scouting department growing, I'm just saying they did fine before & these kids are being scouted to death these days with all the prospect sites & scouting services besides the NHL. Most of the top prospects have a ton of information & video to analyse about them way before the draft.
Sorry I guess was I was trying to say is I wonder if teams had budgets on flying and did a lot of video scouting with limited video for a lot of the games. Teams with bigger scouting staff around the world might have better access to games to watch live during Covid times with all the restrictions as well

Last year was definitely a weird year and I wonder how each team dealt with it.
 
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Ice-Tray

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It could be that budget constrained their viewings, though we have no evidence that scouts were unable to travel to places where guys were playing, or it could just be that they drafted the guys they wanted to draft. PD addressed the small scouting staff a while back explaining that it gave each scout a greater degree of responsibility and a louder voice at the table. It created a small tight knit group of guys who all felt like they played an important role. That’s certainly a convenient explanation, but it’s the only official one we have at the moment, and without evidence to show that there is a desire for more scouts, it will have to do.

I personally think that this draft looks like they identified key core elements in each player (determination, character, courage, skating, size) that are easier to identify, and then swung for the fences on potential development.

It doesn’t look like a mystery, it looks like the technique they chose for this once in a lifetime (hopefully) crapshoot draft.
 

Hale The Villain

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Sens staff clearly overestimated their ability to identify gems in extremely short sample sizes.

Boucher, Ostapchuk, Johansson and Latimer only played 20ish games, while Roger and Romeo didn't play at all.

The massive jump in play from guys like Wyatt Johnston, Ryan Winterton, Logan Stankoven and others who didn't get to play hardly at all last year has shown that the gamble can pay off, but only when the right attributes are emphasized (skill and IQ mainly), while the Sens staff clearly chose to focus on other things (size, physicality and speed mainly).

Hopefully this is a learning experience for Mann and his team.
 

GCK

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Sens staff clearly overestimated their ability to identify gems in extremely short sample sizes.

Boucher, Ostapchuk, Johansson and Latimer only played 20ish games, while Roger and Romeo didn't play at all.

The massive jump in play from guys like Wyatt Johnston, Ryan Winterton, Logan Stankoven and others who didn't get to play hardly at all last year has shown that the gamble can pay off, but only when the right attributes are emphasized (skill and IQ mainly), while the Sens staff clearly chose to focus on other things (size, physicality and speed mainly).

Hopefully this is a learning experience for Mann and his team.
Ostapchuk has looked very good in the games I’ve seen him play. Production isn’t there yet but out of all our picks last year I find him the most intriguing.
 

Hale The Villain

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Ostapchuk has looked very good in the games I’ve seen him play. Production isn’t there yet but out of all our picks last year I find him the most intriguing.

He's noticeable with his size and speed, but questions have to be asked about why the production isn't matching the eye test.

In most cases a lack of skill and/or IQ is the answer, but in his case it's worth noting that the Giants have had a hell of a time scoring goals this year. Even a very skilled player like Lysell isn't putting up big point totals, and a bunch of other players have seen their numbers drop compared to last year.

I expect he'll be able to be molded into a good bottom 6er in time, just would have preferred more of a swing for the fences given how deep our pool is.
 

bert

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Didn't they have exactly the same scouting department in place this past yr as the yr before where they selected Stutzle, Sanderson, Greig, Jarventie, Kleven & Sokolov in the first two rds which all look like home runs & base hits? Maybe they have a lot more faith in their own knowledge on who they think fits best with their org than the majority of people on here.

No team hits a home run with every pick or every draft, mistakes are made constantly at every draft by every team. It's still way too early to make any difinitive conclusions with this guy when he looks like he has a decent amount of skill for a physical player.
I mean the only really good value pick there is Sokolov so far, I dont think it was that great a draft when you look at who was picked around those players. Stutzle was obvious, the players around Sanderson are all excelling the top 12 in that draft is ridiculous. Jarventie looks like a pretty bad pick right now but there is still a long time to go. That being said everyone needs more patience with Boucher. He has battled injuries and played for 2 new teams in the last year. Its going to take a while for him to get into a rhythm.
 

aragorn

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I mean the only really good value pick there is Sokolov so far, I dont think it was that great a draft when you look at who was picked around those players. Stutzle was obvious, the players around Sanderson are all excelling the top 12 in that draft is ridiculous. Jarventie looks like a pretty bad pick right now but there is still a long time to go. That being said everyone needs more patience with Boucher. He has battled injuries and played for 2 new teams in the last year. Its going to take a while for him to get into a rhythm.

Really Greig is looking like a pretty good player leading his team in pts & went to the WJC. Jarventie was 3rd, now 4th in Belleville in scoring this yr at 19 yrs old. Sanderson looks like he is going to be a stud, Stutzle keeps improving & looks like he should have been the 1st OA pick instead of Lafreniere. And Kleven looks like he could be a better meaner version of Holden. Seems like a home run draft to me, but I'm an optimist at the worse of times.

Boucher could take some time, but at the same time he could turn it completely around next season & show everyone why he was drafted so high. It's not out of the question & given his skillset with time it's possible although I would agree that some have much higher expectations based on where he was drafted. I care more about him helping the team than be a prolific scorer, while that would be great so would him bringing a physical prescence to the team that helps the team physically dominate other teams. To each their own I guess.
 

Alf Silfversson

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His production is awful. Seems like a marginal 4th liner at best

How about we give him a bit more time? I did NOT like this pick, but he pkid isn't even done his draft +1 year. And it's been a turmoil filled year.

It looks bad (to very bad) for a 10 OA pick, but there is plenty of time for him to turn it around.
 
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