Value of: Trouba

[lomiller1]

Sanheim just had a better ES scoring year than Trouba

Sanheim’s 5v5 P/60 last year was 1.11, and that’s with a moderately elevated sh%. Trouba’s last 3 years are 1.29, 1.22 and he dipped to 0.96 due to a slump in the second half of this season. He was running at ~1.3P/60 until Dec. The chances are Sanheim never reaches P/60 like this and if he does it’ll likely be a 1-off not something he does for multiple season.

Even with the second half slump that puts Trouba 9th in D-man P/60 over the last 3 years. Before the slump he was actually sitting in 3rd. Sanheim will not be a in this company.

 

[Dooble08]

Sanheim’s 5v5 P/60 last year was 1.11, and that’s with a moderately elevated sh%. Trouba’s last 3 years are 1.29, 1.22 and he dipped to 0.96 due to a slump in the second half of this season. He was running at ~1.3P/60 until Dec. The chances are Sanheim never reaches P/60 like this and if he does it’ll likely be a 1-off not something he does for multiple season.

Even with the second half slump that puts Trouba 9th in D-man P/60 over the last 3 years. Before the slump he was actually sitting in 3rd. Sanheim will not be a in this company.

That's a heck of a prediction to make about someone in his first full season in the NHL. Talk about undervaluing a player.

Tripod was also talking about ES P/60 since Sanheim either gets no PP time or very little PP2 minutes.

 

[Starat327]

Sanheim’s 5v5 P/60 last year was 1.11, and that’s with a moderately elevated sh%. Trouba’s last 3 years are 1.29, 1.22 and he dipped to 0.96 due to a slump in the second half of this season. He was running at ~1.3P/60 until Dec. The chances are Sanheim never reaches P/60 like this and if he does it’ll likely be a 1-off not something he does for multiple season.

Even with the second half slump that puts Trouba 9th in D-man P/60 over the last 3 years. Before the slump he was actually sitting in 3rd. Sanheim will not be a in this company.

So it's ok to bake "slump" into Troubas numbers. But not acknowledge that Hakstol was playing Sanheim doghouse minutes?

As Tripod said, you're severely underrating Sanheim here and making baseless claims that he can never produce at a level after one season where he already actually produced better results. Full stop.

 

[Tripod]

Sanheim’s 5v5 P/60 last year was 1.11, and that’s with a moderately elevated sh%. Trouba’s last 3 years are 1.29, 1.22 and he dipped to 0.96 due to a slump in the second half of this season. He was running at ~1.3P/60 until Dec. The chances are Sanheim never reaches P/60 like this and if he does it’ll likely be a 1-off not something he does for multiple season.

Even with the second half slump that puts Trouba 9th in D-man P/60 over the last 3 years. Before the slump he was actually sitting in 3rd. Sanheim will not be a in this company.

You have no clue how Sanheim ends up. What was Sanheim's P/60 from Dec 17th onward once Hakstol was fired?

And again, this was Sanheim's 1st full season and you are assuming he can't do better. That's naive.

So what we know is that this year, Sanheim beat him in ES points and the p/60 that you cited. Maybe just give him props for that. After all, this is the same Sanheim who ripped apart the WHL when he was younger posting the best PPG by a Dman since 1995/96 in the WHL. He has a history.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Trouba is a rental.

1 year ago, Karlsson was traded with a year left for a bottom pairing defenseman, a youngish 3rd line center, 2 B prospects, a 1st and a 2nd.

Why would any GM pay more for Trouba than what the best defenseman in the league went for just 1 year earlier? Trouba isn't even in Karlsson's league, and Jets fans expect more. A 1st++, is a much more realistic return on what to expect, looking at trade history.

Because that team will likely want Trouba to extend there, the most likely candidates to move their 1st and more would be: Tampa, Florida, or Detroit. Outside shots to the Rangers, Boston, Philly, LA.

 

[Snowman]

Trouba is a rental.

1 year ago, Karlsson was traded with a year left for a bottom pairing defenseman, a youngish 3rd line center, 2 B prospects, a 1st and a 2nd.

Why would any GM pay more Trouba than what the best defenseman in the league went for just 1 year earlier? Trouba isn't even in Karlsson's league, and Jets fans expect more. A 1st++, is a much more realistic return on what to expect, looking at trade history.

Because that team will likely want Trouba to extend there, the most likely candidates to move their 1st and more would be: Tampa, Florida, or Detroit. Outside shots to the Rangers, Boston, Philly, LA.

No matter how much you want to believe it Trouba won't be traded as a rental. It will likely be a trade and sign. So, when you factor in that Karlsson was traded by an organization trying to dump cash and an incompetent GM. The Karlsson and Trouba situations aren't similar at all.

 

[jgimp]

Trouba is a rental.

1 year ago, Karlsson was traded with a year left for a bottom pairing defenseman, a youngish 3rd line center, 2 B prospects, a 1st and a 2nd.

Why would any GM pay more for Trouba than what the best defenseman in the league went for just 1 year earlier? Trouba isn't even in Karlsson's league, and Jets fans expect more. A 1st++, is a much more realistic return on what to expect, looking at trade history.

Because that team will likely want Trouba to extend there, the most likely candidates to move their 1st and more would be: Tampa, Florida, or Detroit. Outside shots to the Rangers, Boston, Philly, LA.

I think many fans are going to be surprised by any upcoming trade for Trouba. Jets fans will think they could have gotten more while the other teams fans think they gave up too much. Just another example of fans over rating their players.
I’ve seen some pretty god awful trade proposals from both sides and WAY too many “untouchables”
If both sides hate the trade it usually means it’s fair

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think many fans are going to be surprised by any upcoming trade for Trouba. Jets fans will think they could have gotten more while the other teams fans think they gave up too much. Just another example of fans over rating their players.
I’ve seen some pretty god awful trade proposals from both sides and WAY too many “untouchables”
If both sides hate the trade it usually means it’s fair

I don't want my team to trade for Trouba, and I highly doubt they would even try. So I think I'm fairly unbiased and objective on the topic. And I do believe the vast majority of Jets fan will be very underwhelmed by the return.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

No matter how much you want to believe it Trouba won't be traded as a rental. It will likely be a trade and sign. So, when you factor in that Karlsson was traded by an organization trying to dump cash and an incompetent GM. The Karlsson and Trouba situations aren't similar at all.

I don't want to believe anything. You've proven time and time again that youre a very biased poster, I really dont see any benefit discussing this with you.

 

[Snowman]

I don't want to believe anything. You've proven time and time again that youre a very biased poster, I really dont see any benefit discussing this with you.

Same with you. You are always very biased with an "agenda" and refusing to deal in reality. No point in discussing things with someone like yourself.

 

[majormajor]

They will be massively disappointed. 2C and a top 4 RD and a 1st? Combo or not those are highly valuable pieces that many would want. And you wouldn’t really trade a young top 4D to get a young top 4 D. Likely you need both.

Gudas + 2020 1st lotto protected + B prospect

Yes, I think this is a more realistic trade return. Given Trouba's likely salary, teams aren't going to want to get f***ed twice, once by the Jets and again by Trouba's agent. Just once will do.

Perhaps make it a B+ prospect, whatever that means. Not Morgan Frost level but a guy with serious upside. The Jets could really use Gudas if both Myers and Trouba are gone. And a likely mid-first round pick is good value.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Same with you. You are always very biased with an "agenda" and refusing to deal in reality. No point in discussing things with someone like yourself.

I really shouldn't engage you, but what agenda do I have?

You quite obviously have a dog in this fight, which is why you argue for a massive return so much. I have nothing to gain. I have just looked at the countless trades over the past 10 years and have decided, the majority of rental top pairing dman don't get the huge pieces that Jets fans want in a Trouba trade. And yes it is much more likely he is dealt as a rental, there have been a lot more rental trades than the small handful of sign and trades. I know you don't want to hear this as a Jets fans, but its simply the truth and thus the much more probable outcome.

Just because you can't accept that doesn't mean I have agenda.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

No matter how much you want to believe it Trouba won't be traded as a rental. It will likely be a trade and sign. So, when you factor in that Karlsson was traded by an organization trying to dump cash and an incompetent GM. The Karlsson and Trouba situations aren't similar at all.

But why is the buying team for Trouba who is on HIS list to re-sign magically paying this extra extension value?
It's not the buying GM's fault Trouba wants to leave WPG. Chevy will only have a small amount of teams to deal with if an extension is in place. At a lower rental price, you'd assume his list would be bigger.

McDonagh situation is similar no?
I'd assume his list was only 4-6 teams long and then how many GM's are going to throw in grade A assets to outbid one another? Some are offering up 6th++ to 13th++ in here or other Trouba threads and that's a fair bit more than what McDonagh returned who was what, 27 iirc when he was traded and had comparable value.

It's like selling a 2012 Ferrari with a one year lease left on it but you want brand new value back just because you have 4-5 buyers?

 

[DRW204]

absolutely no on Pionk

Buchnevich doesn't do much for the Jets who are stacked with top 6 LW

but i do see a fit with NYR, these pieces are just no where near a fit for the Jets

 

[jgimp]

I don't want to believe anything. You've proven time and time again that youre a very biased poster, I really dont see any benefit discussing this with you.

He does have a point . There were reports (I will have to look them up again) that they had better offers from an eastern team but the Ottawa brass didn’t want him in the same division. They settled for less. And Melnyk is one cheap SOB

 

[The Moose is Loose]

He does have a point . There were reports (I will have to look them up again) that they had better offers from an eastern team but the Ottawa brass didn’t want him in the same division. They settled for less. And Melnyk is one cheap SOB

I remember that as well. But I do believe that deal set a cap on what a team would be willing to pay.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't want my team to trade for Trouba, and I highly doubt they would even try. So I think I'm fairly unbiased and objective on the topic. And I do believe the vast majority of Jets fan will be very underwhelmed by the return.

I don't believe that the majority of Jets fans will be underwhelmed. If you took a true cross section most expect somewhere between a true rental value and what a 25 y/o top pairing RHD is actually worth. A team will be getting 1 year of the player and first opportunity to overpay him as a UFA. He does have Kurt Overcharge as his agent after all.

On the flip side Trouba has progressed into the player you'd almost kill for and if he was in a bigger market this would be more commonly known. He got 50 points and was great in his own end and only got #1 PP time when Buff was injured. He also hits like a ton of bricks and is as tough as nails. As a Jets fan I'd give up almost anything to be able to keep him. I'm hoping for about 80 cents on the dollar and I'll wish him well.

 

[TheKingPin]

Yes, I think this is a more realistic trade return. Given Trouba's likely salary, teams aren't going to want to get ****ed twice, once by the Jets and again by Trouba's agent. Just once will do.

Perhaps make it a B+ prospect, whatever that means. Not Morgan Frost level but a guy with serious upside. The Jets could really use Gudas if both Myers and Trouba are gone. And a likely mid-first round pick is good value.

The flyers could add some additional good prospects. There are rumors that a few good prospects may not sign anyway. Could get some very good value for them.

 

[Vitto79]

Winnipeg 1st returned
DeAngelo
Vesey

Trouba to NYR

 

[jgimp]

Winnipeg 1st returned
DeAngelo
Vesey

Trouba to NYR

Swap out Vesey for Howden?

 

[Vitto79]

Swap out Vesey for Howden?

NOt a bad ask as I know Trouba won’t be cheap

I think Quinn loves Howden so I doubt he goes in a deal

Many Ranger fans really like DeAngelo and I figure the Jets need a D back

Prefer to keep Vesey in a deal mainly because he’s likely gone as a ufa deal so his values likeky a 2nd and 3rd

 

[larmex99]

I don't want my team to trade for Trouba, and I highly doubt they would even try. So I think I'm fairly unbiased and objective on the topic. And I do believe the vast majority of Jets fan will be very underwhelmed by the return.

Your “vast majority” of Jets fans is 10 or 12 fans. Most of us expect a disappointing return unless there is a sign and trade transaction happening. A lot of us would prefer keeping him until the trade deadline and trading him then if we aren’t in a strong playoff position. He stands to lose at least $1M (the one year difference in salary if he goes to arbitration compared to signing a long term contract) if he doesn’t want to negotiate with one of his target teams and if that is his choice, so be it. Life goes on.

 

[snowkiddin]

But why is the buying team for Trouba who is on HIS list to re-sign magically paying this extra extension value?
It's not the buying GM's fault Trouba wants to leave WPG. Chevy will only have a small amount of teams to deal with if an extension is in place. At a lower rental price, you'd assume his list would be bigger.

McDonagh situation is similar no?
I'd assume his list was only 4-6 teams long and then how many GM's are going to throw in grade A assets to outbid one another? Some are offering up 6th++ to 13th++ in here or other Trouba threads and that's a fair bit more than what McDonagh returned who was what, 27 iirc when he was traded and had comparable value.

It's like selling a 2012 Ferrari with a one year lease left on it but you want brand new value back just because you have 4-5 buyers?

I agree for the most part but Trouba is far superior to McDonagh, in addition to younger than McD was. Trouba is more valuable.

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

I'd rather keep him as an own rental than give him away for trash

Keeping Trouba as an own rental is one of the worst takes ive ever seen.

 

[Hunter368]

Your “vast majority” of Jets fans is 10 or 12 fans. Most of us expect a disappointing return unless there is a sign and trade transaction happening. A lot of us would prefer keeping him until the trade deadline and trading him then if we aren’t in a strong playoff position. He stands to lose at least $1M (the one year difference in salary if he goes to arbitration compared to signing a long term contract) if he doesn’t want to negotiate with one of his target teams and if that is his choice, so be it. Life goes on.

I’m perfectly happy going to arbitration and letting him walk for free next year or trade him at the TDL if the year is going poorly. To me the options are keep him one more year unless you get a trade that forces you to trade him now. Offers greater then what we would get for him at next years TDL are the ones I would consider. So any top pairing RHD at the TDL has to get roughly a late 1st, 2nd and a B/C level prospect.......so that’s roughly the base asking price now. Team that offers the most above that likely gets Trouba......if no one offers that base price then Trouba stays one more year.

Easy peasy, lemon squeezy