Proposal: Trouba Mega Thread Part VI

[Snowman]

One of these situations is not like the other. Kane was still playing and because of that had to wait 3 years to get out. Trouba probably saw that and said I would rather give up a year than sit in Winnipeg for the next 3 years while Chevy sits on his ass..

So, how is it different? Trouba can't make the Jets trade him. He'll sit as long as the Jets want him to or until he signs and plays with the Jets. Exactly the same.

 

[cobra427]

Then he can sit.
IMO, he'll sit until Chevy receives what he believes to be a fair value offer. If that's next year, so be it. The Jets are not in win now mode.

Chevy isn't stupid and won't let him sit for a year. Then Chevy has wasted a valuable asset for a year or any assets he might have acquired for Trouba. No GM would do that. Next summer he would be in the same spot with Trouba not playing in the NHL for a year. Trouba's value goes down if that is the case. Chevy still has to trade him next summer, so same spot, less return.

Trouba might be forced to sign a short deal. If that is the case, you now have Turris. A player that wants out and doesn't play hard. DM then traded Turris for less value than he could have in the summer or before he signed him. DM screwed up. Chevy won't make the same mistake, he'll trade him in the next few weeks for the best offer, which will be a good return.

 

[Coach Parker]

So, how is it different? Trouba can't make the Jets trade him. He'll sit as long as the Jets want him to or until he signs and plays with the Jets. Exactly the same.

It really is an interesting theory and philosophy for a team to adopt and follow through with. Each GM is different.

I remember when Kessel pulled the same and forced Boston's hand. The Bruins did well on that deal.
I also remember when Hamilton pulled the same and forced Boston's hand. The end result of moving him immediately has yet to be written.

Boston in both cases chose to act immediately and make the trade. I also believe offer sheets were forcing their hand in each situation.

Now, an offer-sheet doesn't solve Trouba's problem with not wanting to be in Winnipeg. Drouin was still under contract in TB when his trade demand took place.

I'm really interested to see how this situation (once it is resolved) affects the franchise in Winnipeg moving forward, either positively or negatively. This isn't a holdout for money like Lindholm, this is wanting out and being a restricted free agent.

 

[haveandare]

That is a silly comment. All players league-wide are essentially bound to the teams that draft them until they reach UFA status. They are free to ask to be traded but the club does not have to grant that request. If Trouba misses the entire season then that is his choice; the club is willing to compensate him fairly via a 6-year offer at $5.5 mln per year - per Dreger.

If they won't trade him after he attempted to torch his trade value by holding out, by refusing to sign, and by limiting the destinations to where he can be traded - that is all on him, not the market.

All players operate under that system yet we haven't had one miss a whole season due to a trade request in 15 years. That's not because other players haven't wanted off their teams before UFA, it's because no team has been stubborn enough to force that situation.

 

[smack66]

the way this one is going it has the potential to be the biggest HF thread of all time.

 

[nyr__1994]

So, how is it different? Trouba can't make the Jets trade him. He'll sit as long as the Jets want him to or until he signs and plays with the Jets. Exactly the same.

Really? You really think that Kane playing while waiting to get traded is the same as Trouba sitting out and waiting to get traded?

Kane was playing and contributing to the team, helping them win games. You know the goal of any sport, to win, not collect prospects, not to teach lessons to players, Win Games.

Meanwhile, Trouba is adding nothing to the current Jets team, and you can argue that he is actually subtracting from it by Chevy not trading him for pieces that can help his team win games.

 

[cneely]

Chevy isn't stupid and won't let him sit for a year. Then Chevy has wasted a valuable asset for a year or any assets he might have acquired for Trouba. No GM would do that. Next summer he would be in the same spot with Trouba not playing in the NHL for a year. Trouba's value goes down if that is the case. Chevy still has to trade him next summer, so same spot, less return.

Trouba might be forced to sign a short deal. If that is the case, you now have Turris. A player that wants out and doesn't play hard. DM then traded Turris for less value than he could have in the summer or before he signed him. DM screwed up. Chevy won't make the same mistake, he'll trade him in the next few weeks for the best offer, which will be a good return.

Wasting a valuable asset is trading it for less than fair value. If that's all that's offered, you keep it.

You might have a Turris. You also might have a Kane situation where he showed up and played his ass off every night, thus making it easier to trade him.

 

[lomiller1]

If Kypreos is right that the WPG ask from BOS was Spooner, Carlo, and a 1st for Trouba, than the Rangers can beat that offer easily.

Not sure we want to at this point, the offense looks so good and the defense has been tolerable, and I'm more averse to trading JT Miller than I was. But for sake of argument, assuming Kypreos is reporting accurately (big assumption), then Zucc/Skjei/1st should get this done. Or Miller/Skjei. Again, not sure I really want to do that. If Trouba winds up signing for 1 year so he can play, and the trade talk stretches into Fall 2017, by that time Skjei alone could be worth Trouba. Or Miller alone. A lot can happen, and if I'm Jeff Gorton I just wait it out at this point. Really, all teams involved including WPG have the luxury of time.

IMO it was just a Kypreos thing. He started off by saying Spooner was on the market and that Carlo has “opened a lot of eyesâ€, speculated that maybe they could offer Spooner Carlo and a first for Trouba and then stated that was to rich an over.

I doubt the Jets have much interest in Spooner, they have let i be know they are not interested in picks and while it’s conceivable they like Carlo (they have made more than 1 similar mistake) I doubt they see him as the feature piece in a Trouba deal.

 

[Coach Parker]

Another outside thought that could force a move:

1. Trouba tells a team that he will sign for peanuts (3.0 million / year for two years) on a bridge contract if they trade for him.
2. Suddenly the value of Trouba at 2 years and 3.0 million a year raises the value of Trouba and forces a team to add more to the trade satisfying the Jets demands.
3. Chevy now has upped the value of his player, Trouba gets out ASAP to the team he wants to go to and the team gets Trouba on an amazing bridge contract at the inflated cost Chevy was asking for.
4. Chevy saves face and gets high value for his RFA, bar is set around the league for RFA holdouts, bridge contracts maintained and the player chose where he wanted to go to sacrificing money for personal lifestyle decisions.

 

[haveandare]

I count 7 players on their roster who are either rookies or second year players.
Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Lowry, Morrissey, Hellebuyck, Tanev. They also have Dano, Armia, Petan, De Leo, Lemieux, etc. who are soon to make their mark. They haven't just built a farm team like many / most teams, aside from maybe Toronto and Edmonton, they have built a young team that is better than any. Will it show in eventual results? Who knows, but all we can say is that at this point, they have done a pretty remarkable job, and to say otherwise is disingenuous.


How attractive will Winnipeg be to their future RFA's if you set the precedent that you just have to whine and request a trade, and we'll accommodate you by taking pennies on the dollar.

They haven't built a young team better than any until their young team is actually better than any in the standings and the playoffs. If I had a dollar for every prospect I expected to be important who turned out to be nothing I'd be a rich man as would anyone else who follows hockey and prospects for a length of time.

I think they'd be more attractive if they set the precedent that players who don't want to be there aren't trapped there until ufa. There's no proof that they've only gotten offers equivalent to pennies on the dollar, we know what Chevy publicly asked for though, a lateral trade for Trouba as if he's signed and playing - and it's too much.

 

[Coach Parker]

Chevy: "You want out Jacob, sign with _________ for two years and 3.0 million per year and I'll move you there today."

 

[nyr__1994]

Wasting a valuable asset is trading it for less than fair value. If that's all that's offered, you keep it.

You might have a Turris. You also might have a Kane situation where he showed up and played his ass off every night, thus making it easier to trade him.

And it still took 3 years to get traded. Trouba looks at that and says, I know I want out for whatever reason, and there is no way I am going to wait 3 years. This is the only chance I have to force my way out...

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Another outside thought that could force a move:

1. Trouba tells a team that he will sign for peanuts (3.0 million / year for two years) on a bridge contract if they trade for him.
2. Suddenly the value of Trouba at 2 years and 3.0 million a year raises the value of Trouba and forces a team to add more to the trade satisfying the Jets demands.
3. Chevy now has upped the value of his player, Trouba gets out ASAP to the team he wants to go to and the team gets Trouba on an amazing bridge contract at the inflated cost Chevy was asking for.
4. Chevy saves face and gets high value for his RFA, bar is set around the league for RFA holdouts, bridge contracts maintained and the player chose where he wanted to go to sacrificing money for personal lifestyle decisions.

I like this reasoning.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Okay, so 12 points difference is worth that 3.5 million? Even if you wanted to say Zuccarello is better right now about to hit 30 why would that cap hit and 5 years age difference appeal to a team in the middle of a rebuild over a center who is younger and a RFA at the end?

I'd even turn the > to an = and the deal is still better from Boston given Carlo's age and the projected placement of the 1st round pick Hell, even if you convinced me that the prospects were equal and that Carlo will only be as good as Skjei is now in three years and that the Bruins are going to finish ahead of the Rangers making the Draft pick better for New York...

...if all of that occurred, how is that deal 'easily' better than the Bruins one? At best, this argument takes us to the deals being equal and then the age and cap hits are all more and older. I was simply arguing that this deal is in no way 'easily' better than the bruins one at all.

Argue about other stuff all you want. Doesn't change the point that production wise Zuccarello still holds a fairly decent edge and that is literally the only thing I commented on, how your use of the word similar is wrong.

 

[Coach Parker]

I like this reasoning.

I can't see a loser at all in that situation. If the money really isn't the issue but rather the personal lifestyle then Trouba sacrifices money to make the deal happen to the team he wants to go to.

Jets win.
Team trading for him wins.
Trouba wins.

 

[CaptainChef]

MDZ + Sanheim still seems like the best offer I've seen.

That's one of a few deals that I'd consider close enough to consider.

 

[Coach Parker]

Argue about other stuff all you want. Doesn't change the point that production wise Zuccarello still holds a fairly decent edge and that is literally the only thing I commented on, how your use of the word similar is wrong.

I stand by 'similar' when you take that 12 point edge and add in age and contract that 12 points for a player four years older making 3.5 million more / year for those 12 points makes them 'similar' in value.

Would I rather have a 29 year old 3.5 million dollar player on my third line getting me 61 points

or

would I rather have a 24 year old 925k player on my third line getting me 49 points

Similar in value and then my current team status would decide. Contender with cap space, A. Team in middle of rebuild that will be a playoff contender in 1-2 years, B.

Similar.

 

[CaptainChef]

See that's where you're making a mistake. You're assuming we are saying this is a playoff team or a contender. That's not what we're saying. If we make the playoffs this year it will be a surprise. Most Jets fans see this as a development year.>>>>>>>>>>>.............

.

Don't feed the trolls. Awful lot of words to waste on someone who obviously can't read, but thinks they're an expert on other teams players.

 

[KingDeathMetal]

1. How about planet age and contract? Planet RFA vs. UFA? The whopping 12 points don't make up for 4 years and 3.5 million / year.

2. 'Age doesn't matter when you're talking about 19 and 22, it's a wash'? That is a huge, huge difference. That is three years of an ELC contract on an ELC salary difference. That is controlling the most important development years of a defenseman in the NHL for almost league minimum.

I think we'd agree that the only way this deal is 'better' than the Bruins and not equal to (didn't address the Bruins 1st potentially being a lottery pick while the Rangers are set for another playoff run, which equates to potentially 10 spots in the draft) is if Zuccarello and his 29 year old 3.5 million dollar cap hit then UFA contract is replaced with Miller's. Then you have an argument like you suggested.

Certainly not 'easily' beating the Bruins offer when age, contract status, salary cap and draft position are taken into account.

Miller, LHD and 1st address more needs than Spooner, younger RHD, higher 1st for the Jets IMO.

You can bring up age and money all day, and they do matter, but we're still talking about a third line Center versus a 1st line forward. And Zucc is on an excellent contract right now, and is a skilled playmaking forward who can play with anyone in the top six. Not trying to underrate Spooner, but Zucc is more valuable in virtually every aspect of the game. Unlike many teams, the Jets have youth and cap space on their side, so perhaps they would value a veteran (but still young) top line forward on a good contract.

But as you alluded to yourself, if the Jets would look at Spooner and Zucc as equal assets, then substitute Miller.

Far as Skjei vs. Carlo, now we're just getting into the weeds of contract maneuverability. With players that young, it's about "Who is better?", "Who is expected to eventually be better?" and "Who is the better fit?" I would answer Skjei in all three categories. If the Jets are willing to take back a D-man who is not as established as Trouba but has a high ceiling and plays the left side, then Skjei is exactly the right fit. Sounds like that actually isn't the case, as most reports say they want a more experienced player, but I'm just going off of the Bruins rumor.

You do make a good point about the Bruins pick being potentially higher, but still too early to tell if that's going to be a lottery pick or not. Virtually anyone drafted in the first round has the potential to be a star, so if we're talking about pick #12 vs. pick #20, then if all other factors in the trade favor the Rangers offer, I don't think the difference in pick position is that big of a deal. Known quantities are always more valuable than futures, and I think that a combination of Zucc or Miller and Skjei gives the Jets better talent and more predictability than Spooner/Carlo.

 

[Gump Hasek]

I think they'd be more attractive if they set the precedent that players who don't want to be there aren't trapped there until ufa. There's no proof that they've only gotten offers equivalent to pennies on the dollar, we know what Chevy publicly asked for though, a lateral trade for Trouba as if he's signed and playing - and it's too much.

I think you may perhaps lack an understanding of the difference between RFA and UFA players. He isn't trapped here and is free to ply his trade overseas until he is 27 if he wishes. If he wants to play in the NHL however, he is bound by the terms of the CBA and those terms include that the Jets hold his rights for the next 4 seasons, full stop. Teams can offer him a contract and the Jets can match those offers and they have said they would. He is free to play elsewhere overseas and is free to ask for a trade, but the Jets don't have to grant his wish. The Jets are also free to ask to be fully compensated for the 4 years he has remaining here in a trade return and to determine the exact worth of that asset, period. They get to determine that value, not anyone else. It doesn't matter if you think they are asking for too much.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Likely hood of him going to the KHL for a year?

 

[aj8000]

All players operate under that system yet we haven't had one miss a whole season due to a trade request in 15 years. That's not because other players haven't wanted off their teams before UFA, it's because no team has been stubborn enough to force that situation.

maybe it is time one did

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Likely hood of him going to the KHL for a year?

Very slim to nill.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I stand by 'similar' when you take that 12 point edge and add in age and contract that 12 points for a player four years older making 3.5 million more / year for those 12 points makes them 'similar' in value.

Would I rather have a 29 year old 3.5 million dollar player on my third line getting me 61 points

or

would I rather have a 24 year old 925k player on my third line getting me 49 points

Similar in value and then my current team status would decide. Contender with cap space, A. Team in middle of rebuild that will be a playoff contender in 1-2 years, B.

Similar.

Except you said stats, not value. I don't disagree on value. I simply said they are not similar production wise. When you figure out what it is you are arguing please let me know.

For arguments' sake:

Spooner > Zuccarello (contract, age are the only tie-breakers as they are similar in stats)
Skjei = Carlo (edge to Carlo being 19 and Skjei being 22)
1st NYR < 1st BOS (Rangers are better)

Bruins, 19 and 24, 1.846 million.
Rangers, 22 and 29, 5.425 million.

So how is that 'easily' beating the Bruins offer? Seems to me the Jets take on a 4.5 million contract vs a 925k as well as him being half a decade older, an older defensive prospect and a later 1st?

I'm not saying the Jets want either trade but the Bruins one has the edge in contract status, age, 1st potential and overall value once the two are compared.

On a separate note, the idea of a cheap bridge deal for Trouba is intriguing. Could potentially open up the bidding to other teams who can't afford to pay him 5+ million now but could in a year or two.

 

[Snowman]

Really? You really think that Kane playing while waiting to get traded is the same as Trouba sitting out and waiting to get traded?

Kane was playing and contributing to the team, helping them win games. You know the goal of any sport, to win, not collect prospects, not to teach lessons to players, Win Games.

Meanwhile, Trouba is adding nothing to the current Jets team, and you can argue that he is actually subtracting from it by Chevy not trading him for pieces that can help his team win games.

Except that, you and many others here want the Jets to make a panic trade and give Trouba up for anything we can get. Which helps the team in no shape, way or form and will likely not help them win games now or in the future.

I'm saying the goal is to replace his value to the Jets. If no one wants to step up and do that, then we won't trade him. It won't hurt us any more than it is already. Trading him for inferior pieces would indeed hurt the team.