Trevor Timmins Part II

[MrNasty]

Compiled a list of Hab picks that were traded away since Timmins joined us. Curious if Timmins could have drafted someone better than what we received. I listed who the other team drafted and how many NHL games the player acquired played after that date (Mtl + other teams).
Note: I didn't include trades involving picks for picks or when the Habs improve their draft position

What is even more telling is that not a single one of the picks we traded away became anything of value. How bad were all the other head scouts. Timmins may have drafted a couple of those guys but generally speaking, unless it is a high pick the value of draft picks is overrated.

 

[Whitesnake]

How would you explain that MB didn't want to give Subban the 8 year/$9M per year contract but Geoff Molson told him to do it. That's what I heard anyways.

Yeah, well I guess we'll see about that one day. But then, how do you explain that the guy who told his GM to shut up and give PK what he wants......to totally agree to give him up not that long after?

Picking 17 years old kids is by far not and exact science. Blaming a chief scout or GM for one pick, one year or well chosen window of years is totally irrelevant. If draft was an exact science, the redraft 15 years after of any given year would be very similar to the real draft. We all know it's not the case for every year and the more you go away from the first picks, the greater the variability.

A chief scout must be judged on his average over a long period and taking into account the number of picks he had, and how early they were. That's it, and when we apply those criteria to Timmins, he is clearly one of the best. For me, his only huge mistake was A. Kostitsyn on such a good year and with such an early pick.

Pretty strange that no matter how inexact the science is....tons of head scouts and scouts are fired. Why is that? How many head scouts and scouts have the luxury to be judged over a long period? And to name him one of the best, you have to do more than just say it. You actually have to look at every single team and not only look at their records...but you also have to take into consideration that the people in charge might have changed. That a team might be awful from 2003 to 2009, yet they changed their head scout and the guy in place now is great. Maybe better....but why would he pay for the bad scouting that his predecessor had under the same team? 'Cause that's what people are doing....look at Timmins from 2003 to whatever...and look at other teams. And yet...Timmins is a person....and the "other teams" might be totally different during the same period.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yeah, well I guess we'll see about that one day. But then, how do you explain that the guy who told his GM to shut up and give PK what he wants......to totally agree to give him up not that long after?

It tells me its a team decision but in the end it's a decision approved from the top down. MB has the decision making but Molson pays the bills.

 

[Whitesnake]

It tells me its a team decision but in the end it's a decision approved from the top down. MB has the decision making but Molson pays the bills.

You have to love that article by Marc DeFoy...on the Subban trade

Bergevin a analysé la situation avec ses hommes de hockey durant deux jours. Comme il le fait depuis qu’il l’a embauché, Molson a appuyé sa décision.
Car à partir du moment où un propriétaire d’équipe commence à s’interroger ou à remettre carrément en question les gestes de son directeur général, c’est le commencement de la fin.

Translation: Bergevin analysed the situation with his hockey people during 2 days. Just like he has done it since he hired Bergevin, Molson approved Bergevin's decision. 'Cause when the owner of a team start to wonder or totally challenge the moves of his GM, it's the beginning of the end.....

 

[Belial]

How would you explain that MB didn't want to give Subban the 8 year/$9M per year contract but Geoff Molson told him to do it. That's what I heard anyways.

This myth was put to sleep by Molson himself plenty of times. The PK trade just reinforces his words that he is letting Bergevin do his thing and is not influencing him in making decisions.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This myth was put to sleep by Molson himself plenty of times. The PK trade just reinforces his words that he is letting Bergevin do his thing and is not influencing him in making decisions.

So if Molson says this to the media it must be true right? Just like when MB said to the media that PK was not going to be traded right?

I see it this way... MB didn't want to give Subban the massive contract but was not stupid and knew he had to give in at some point. He talked to Molson and the decision was made together to give him the $9M AAV. Then after 2 years in that contract, they realized Subban was a very exciting player to watch but he came as a distraction and once Weber was offered, they pulled the trigger. MB presented the trade to Molson and it was approved.

Molson allows MB to do his job but gives last approval. Just like when TT is allowed to do his job but MB has last approval. That's how it works and arguing otherwise is silly (to me anyways).

 

[jfm133]

Pretty strange that no matter how inexact the science is....tons of head scouts and scouts are fired. Why is that?

First. It is not true that tons of head scouts are fired. And those that end up being fired showed a poor average over a good period of time since it takes time to judge a draft. It is very rare that a head scout is fired after a year or two. If it's the case it makes no sense. Also, those fired often find a job somewhere else in a lesser role. This is a very closed circle. Very hard to get into it.

 

[Chili]

Thumbs up to Steve Shutt, I know how much time putting that info together takes.

I was actually going to post something about Bergevin's effective use of trading draft picks in comparison to his predecessors.

 

[Belial]

So if Molson says this to the media it must be true right? Just like when MB said to the media that PK was not going to be traded right?

I see it this way... MB didn't want to give Subban the massive contract but was not stupid and knew he had to give in at some point. He talked to Molson and the decision was made together to give him the $9M AAV. Then after 2 years in that contract, they realized Subban was a very exciting player to watch but he came as a distraction and once Weber was offered, they pulled the trigger. MB presented the trade to Molson and it was approved.

Molson allows MB to do his job but gives last approval. Just like when TT is allowed to do his job but MB has last approval. That's how it works and arguing otherwise is silly (to me anyways).

First of all Bergevin never said that PK will not be traded. He always said that he's listening (doing his job). Pretty sure that if Weber was not on the table PK would still be a Canadiens player.

You choose to not believe Molson and believe things that are said in the social media . Well it's your choice...

Does Molson have the knowledge of a scout or the capacity to evaluate hockey players adequately ? I don't think so , he hired Bergevin to do this. Assuming that he overpowers his decisions is silly, why even have Marc around then?

The same goes for Therrien , are they talking with Bergevin about players? For sure , but Bergevin is not telling Therrien how to run the team.

 

[jfm133]

Observation:
Gainey's Asset Management was horrible in 2008-2010. Acquired Tanguay, Lang, Schneider, Moore, and Wisniewski costing us a 1st (2008 #25), 2nd (2009 #45), 2nd (2010 #32), 2nd (2009 #49), 2nd (2011 #47), 2nd (2011 #50), 3rd (2010 #87) and 5th(2012) and let all of those guys walk immediately after. Ouch!

Thanks! Great job!

Your piece just add to how bad assets management was before Bergevin came in. To your list we can add Beauchemin, Hainsey, Streit, Souray, Ribiero, Koivu and Kovalev all lost for nothing in return. You also have the terrible McDonagh/Higgins trade for Gomez that cost us a lot.

In comparison, MB was able to get Danault + 2nd rounder for Weise and Fleischman. That being said, it's not a shame that with did not signed Vanek. We saw what he did in Minny. He looks better this year on a one year deal in Detroit. But signing Vanek for something like 7 x 7M$ = 49M$ like he refused from NYI, would have been a nightmare. Vanek is a better Semin. Not the kind of player you want to build a cup contender.

 

[Steve Shutt]

Thumbs up to Steve Shutt, I know how much time putting that info together takes.

I was actually going to post something about Bergevin's effective use of trading draft picks in comparison to his predecessors.

Thanks - appreciated

 

[Steve Shutt]

Thanks! Great job!

Your piece just add to how bad assets management was before Bergevin came in. To your list we can add Beauchemin, Hainsey, Streit, Souray, Ribiero, Koivu and Kovalev all lost for nothing in return. You also have the terrible McDonagh/Higgins trade for Gomez that cost us a lot.

In comparison, MB was able to get Danault + 2nd rounder for Weise and Fleischman. That being said, it's not a shame that with did not signed Vanek. We saw what he did in Minny. He looks better this year on a one year deal in Detroit. But signing Vanek for something like 7 x 7M$ = 49M$ like he refused from NYI, would have been a nightmare. Vanek is a better Semin. Not the kind of player you want to build a cup contender.

Agreed - Gainey had a strange policy of not negotiating until the end of season which cost us some solid players who simply walked leaving us with nothing in return. Could you imagine how deep we would be had we not traded those picks or re-signed the guys he acquired + traded our FA's for assets.

Gainey was pretty solid in the early years but really fell apart from 2008-2010. Was it because:
A) Lost his Touch
B) Depression after death of his daughter
C) Pressure to succeed (missed playoffs in 2007 and got desperate after that)
D) Owner Interference

Something was going on and I think ownership recognized it and that's why we saw Gauthier join him in 2010 and ran the team together. I personally believe the death of his daughter + the pressure in Montreal caused a breakdown. Tough for Timmins to work his magic under those circumstances.

 

[Habs Halifax]

First of all Bergevin never said that PK will not be traded. He always said that he's listening (doing his job). Pretty sure that if Weber was not on the table PK would still be a Canadiens player.

You choose to not believe Molson and believe things that are said in the social media . Well it's your choice...

Does Molson have the knowledge of a scout or the capacity to evaluate hockey players adequately ? I don't think so , he hired Bergevin to do this. Assuming that he overpowers his decisions is silly, why even have Marc around then?

The same goes for Therrien , are they talking with Bergevin about players? For sure , but Bergevin is not telling Therrien how to run the team.

MB has his finger prints on all major decisions and that's how it should be. TT gets a lot of credit for his scouting but my point is MB has a lot of input. Thinking, insisting, or trying to prove otherwise is searching man. Sorry

 

[Steve Shutt]

Thanks! Great job!

Your piece just add to how bad assets management was before Bergevin came in. To your list we can add Beauchemin, Hainsey, Streit, Souray, Ribiero, Koivu and Kovalev all lost for nothing in return.

Decided to research how many players Gainey lost during the 2008-2010 period to FA without getting anything in return:

2008
Mark Streit
Michael Ryder
Yann Danis
Cory Urquhart
Duncan Milroy

2009
Mathieu Biron
Alex Tanguay
Alex Kovalev
Francis Bouillon
Marc Denis
Mathieu Schneider
Patrice Brisebois
Robert Lang
Tom Kostopoulos
Saku Koivu
Mike Komisarek

2010
Andre Benoit
Dominic Moore
Marc-Andre Bergeron
Paul Mara
Mikael Johansson
Glen Metropolit
Dan Ellis
David Fischer

Others Worthy of Mention 2003-2007
Francois Beauchemin - 2004 - Lost to Waivers
Ron Hainsey - 2005 - Lost to Waivers
Mike Ribeiro - 2006 - Trade with Stars
Sheldon Souray - 2007 - Lost to FA
David Aebischer - 2007 - Lost to FA

Wow - 2008-2010 really were some poor asset management years. I know he replaced a some of those guys with other FA's but sure would have been nice to trade a few for picks and prospects at the deadline if he knew he wasn't going to re-sign them.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Decided to research how many players Gainey lost during the 2008-2010 period to FA without getting anything in return:

2008
Mark Streit
Michael Ryder
Yann Danis
Cory Urquhart
Duncan Milroy

2009
Mathieu Biron
Alex Tanguay
Alex Kovalev
Francis Bouillon
Marc Denis
Mathieu Schneider
Patrice Brisebois
Robert Lang
Tom Kostopoulos
Saku Koivu
Mike Komisarek

2010
Andre Benoit
Dominic Moore
Marc-Andre Bergeron
Paul Mara
Mikael Johansson
Glen Metropolit
Dan Ellis
David Fischer

Others Worthy of Mention 2003-2009
Francois Beauchemin - 2004 - Lost to Waivers
Ron Hainsey - 2005 - Lost to Waivers
Mike Ribeiro - 2006 - Trade with Stars
Sheldon Souray - 2007 - Lost to FA
David Aebischer - 2007 - Lost to FA

Wow - 2008-2010 really were some poor asset management years. I know he replaced a some of those guys with other FA's but sure would have been nice to trade a few for picks and prospects at the deadline if he knew he wasn't going to re-sign them.

I think you need to consider the Habs were a playoff team before you say things like "poor management". You really expect them to trade key pieces of their team away when your going into the playoffs? Seriously?

Classic Hindsight Evaluation.

 

[jfm133]

I think you need to consider the Habs were a playoff team before you say things like "poor management". You really expect them to trade key pieces of their team away when your going into the playoffs? Seriously?

Classic Hindsight Evaluation.

But for last year, we have been a playoff team every years under Bergevin. You extend the player before his last year of contract, if not, you trade him. Carey Price will be a good example of that. You try to extend him next summer. If you cannot agree, you trade him. When a GM put forward such a policy, players know where the team stands. If Price wants to stay here he will agree to a contract good for both sides. If he wants to leave he will ask for the moon.

We can talk all we want about Timmins, but the few last posts here show that Gainey/Gauthier benefited from Timmins picks and did a destruction job with the assets they had from the previous GMs, Houle included (Beauchemin, Ribiero).

 

[Habs Halifax]

But for last year, we have been a playoff team every years under Bergevin. You extend the player before his last year of contract, if not, you trade him. Carey Price will be a good example of that. You try to extend him next summer. If you cannot agree, you trade him. When a GM put forward such a policy, players know where the team stands. If Price wants to stay here he will agree to a contract good for both sides. If he wants to leave he will ask for the moon.

We can talk all we want about Timmins, but the few last posts here show that Gainey/Gauthier benefited from Timmins picks and did a destruction job with the assets they had from the previous GMs, Houle included (Beauchemin, Ribiero).

Just like last year with Stamkos and TB right? I get what your saying but people evaluating BG, MB or TT because of poor asset management and not trading expiring UFA contracts when the Habs are in a playoff spot is silly man.

 

[jfm133]

Just like last year with Stamkos and TB right? I get what your saying but people evaluating BG, MB or TT because of poor asset management and not trading expiring UFA contracts when the Habs are in a playoff spot is silly man.

Sorry, Yzerman would have looked like a fool losing Stamkos for nothing. It was a crazy risk that he took. Gainey got away with it in the case of Markov. But for one Markov he lost a whole bunch of good players for nothing.

 

[Steve Shutt]

I think you need to consider the Habs were a playoff team before you say things like "poor management". You really expect them to trade key pieces of their team away when your going into the playoffs? Seriously?

Classic Hindsight Evaluation.

Gainey grabbed some great pieces for those playoff drives (Tanguay, Lang, Schneider, Moore, Wisniewski) but I'm critical because he let them all walk and it seriously hurt our future as it cost us a 1st (2008 #25), 2nd (2009 #45), 2nd (2010 #32), 2nd (2009 #49), 2nd (2011 #47), 2nd (2011 #50), 3rd (2010 #87) and 5th(2012).

Bergevin grabbed (Vanek, Petry, Flynn, Weaver, Mitchell) and retained 4 of them meaning the picks he gave up were well invested.

Negotiating with some of these guys earlier might have led to their retention or a trade for other assets that could have supported our playoff run.

Mark Streit
Michael Ryder
Yann Danis
Cory Urquhart
Duncan Milroy
Mathieu Biron
Alex Tanguay
Alex Kovalev
Francis Bouillon
Marc Denis
Mathieu Schneider
Patrice Brisebois
Robert Lang
Tom Kostopoulos
Saku Koivu
Mike Komisarek
Andre Benoit
Dominic Moore
Marc-Andre Bergeron
Paul Mara
Mikael Johansson
Glen Metropolit
Dan Ellis
David Fischer

In the end Gainey is long gone, hindsight is 20/20, and this adds to the discussion on why Timmins might have had less success from 2008-2010

 

[jfm133]

David Fischer was a good move since we got a compensaory second round pick by not signing him. But it shows how bad the pick was.

You forgot Souray.

 

[Steve Shutt]

You forgot Souray.

Was discussing 2008-2010 Gainey years. Souray was mentioned in my previous thread

Others Worthy of Mention 2003-2007
Francois Beauchemin - 2004 - Lost to Waivers
Ron Hainsey - 2005 - Lost to Waivers
Mike Ribeiro - 2006 - Trade with Stars
Sheldon Souray - 2007 - Lost to FA
David Aebischer - 2007 - Lost to FA

 

[Habs]

My opinion is unpopular- Timmins hits about as many legit draft picks as the average scout, he misses a lot more though. Would like some fresh blood doing the scouting.

 

[Frank Drebin]

My opinion is unpopular- Timmins hits about as many legit draft picks as the average scout, he misses a lot more though. Would like some fresh blood doing the scouting.

I don't think it's all that unpopular. He's had too many home runs in the later rounds and not enough in the earlier ones. Still living off 2007 which was fantastic but yet to be repeated.

 

[scrubadam]

I don't think it's all that unpopular. He's had too many home runs in the later rounds and not enough in the earlier ones. Still living off 2007 which was fantastic but yet to be repeated.

I think that what both of you said is spot on. But it is unpopular to say on here. Timmins is part of the group that cannot be questioned. If he was hired by MB he would be strung up in the foxhole as well.

 

[groovejuice]

Read this article. It's illuminating. The charts are near the end.

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/n...ting-trevor-timmins-bergevin-amateur-scouting