GDT: Training Camp Discussion PART II

[zeke]

Ullmark is their #1 and a legit potential starter.

Always tough to judge a goalie on a bad team - their stats can just as easily be boosted by playing behind a team that gives up so many shots as hurt by playing behind a team that gives up so many chances.

For the record, the analytics suggest he's been helped more by buffalo's shots against volume than hurt by their chances against.

 

[zeke]

Not related, but interesting Kral now has Liljegren's Marlies #7. Either just a number change or Leafs are expecting Liljegren to be up with the NHL club.

If they didn't think he'd be in the bottom pair mix all year they would have re-signed or replaced Bogosian.

 

[LeafChief]

 

[ACC1224]

Matthews already a fan of Maple Leafs newcomers Ritchie, Carbery | Toronto Sun

 

[Buds17]

100% agree, which is why I don't see why people think he will end up on the Marlies.

If he does play for the Marlies, it will either be for a very brief time at the beginning of the year until injuries hit or we trade Engvall (whichever comes first), or it will mostly just be the odd tune up game like it was for Barabanov and Marincin when they sat for extended periods of time.

He will be in the NHL for close to 100% of the time, or we will trade him like we did with Lindholm and Barabanov.

What I find interesting is that Mikheyev and Semyonov have played on the same team, in similar roles, for much of their lives (born 3 weeks apart, both in Omsk, and have come up through that system together) and have yet to play on the same line together in preseason. You'd think the Leafs would capitalize on that chemistry to some extent (unless they hate each other for some reason, in which case it would be odd for Semyonov to sign here in the first place).

A good deal of the upside in bringing in a player of that age is the ability to have him play immediately. I figure it to be something along the lines of Barabanov or Lehtonen last season. He might not sign his next contract with the Leafs, but he should still get that opportunity to prove himself. I suppose Keefe might see Semyonov as a fourth liner. Mikheyev should continue to be something more than that (likely a third liner). I can see how neither player might be long for the team (beyond this season).

 

[WinnieThePooh]

Definitely. But to say the Leafs goaltending is suspect and then to also in the same breathe say Ullmark is a sure fire # 1 is ridiculous. Ullmark has been struggling to the point that the Boston writers are thinking Swayman will start the season as the starter.

Mrazek and Campbell have both looked very good.

Valid points! I don't see a huge gap between Boston's tandem and ours.

 

[Notsince67]

So sounds like the Leafs have 4 good defensemen, Muzzin, Rielly, Brodie and Sandin. Holl is 3rd. pairing along with Dermott and Liljegren.

Pretty elite level third pair IMO

 

[Apex Predator]

Pretty elite level third pair IMO

i wouldn’t go that far calling them elite.

 

[Tarmore]

An argument between two twitter reporters who'd probably get heart palpitations from the exertion of lacing up hockey skates.

Lol, I like it! Too funny

 

[Stephen]

You are falling into the trap of remembering a couple of teams and thinking it is common. I gave you data. 80% of teams that win the cup do so with one goalie starting all of their playoff games.

Petr Mrazek has been in and out of every playoff run he's been in.
Campbell was in ONE playoff run and lasted 4 games before his play fell off a cliff (.892 over the final 3 games) and has a history of being good in batches but not over long stretches.

If you're looking at the simple question - does our goaltending situation help our cup odds? The answer is no, it does not.

They might both be good goalies but that isn't the question.

Mrazek and Campbell would imply the Leafs are thinking about this like a Vernon Osgood tandem who can get hot.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

So you can compare
Old vs New
Hyman vs Ritchie
Foligno vs Bunting
Thornton vs Kase
Galchenyuk vs Kampf

I think that's a worse top end but a better low end.

Hyman > Ritchie
Foligno = Bunting
Thornton < Kase

Gally/Kampf is hard to compare considering they are asked to play completely different rolls.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Hyman > Ritchie
Foligno = Bunting
Thornton < Kase

Gally/Kampf is hard to compare considering they are asked to play completely different rolls.

how is Foligno equal to Bunting? Foligno was not good, and he only played 7 games. If Bunting doesn't have a much bigger impact it would be a shock

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Hyman > Ritchie
Foligno = Bunting
Thornton < Kase

Gally/Kampf is hard to compare considering they are asked to play completely different rolls.

Wouldn't it make more sense to compare Foligno with Kampf, and Bunting with Galchenyuk?

Bunting > Galchenyuk (hopefully; Bunting is still a bit of an unknown but this is definitely not unrealistic).
Kampf > Foligno. Foligno didn't do anything, so it wouldn't be hard for Kampf to do better.
Kase >>> Thornton. Although we will put guys on waivers who would have been better than Thornton was last year.
Ritchie < Hyman. Hyman has more defensive value. Offensively, it depends on how well Ritchie buys in. I think Ritchie could replace Hyman offensively if he does buy in.

 

[Fogelhund]

Hyman > Ritchie
Foligno = Bunting
Thornton < Kase

Gally/Kampf is hard to compare considering they are asked to play completely different rolls.

We had Foligno for 7 regular season games, and 4 playoff games. It's a bit disingenuous to compare Foligno, as if he'd had full season impact on the team. He was barely here, then was out. If we agree that Bunting is the equal of Foligno, then the impact of a full season of Bunting, should be greater than the 11 games of Foligno. If anything, Bunting is probably replacing Vesey's spot from the start of last season.

 

[Fogelhund]

Of note, significant cuts coming tomorrow.

 

[Notsince67]

i wouldn’t go that far calling them elite.

Even dermott has shown elite 3rd pair numbers relative to the league. Don't over-value 3rd pairs from a different team

 

[Fogelhund]

Have you watched Ullmark this pre-season? Take a look.

You mean the 1.5 games in exhibition he's played?

Ullmark played incredibly well for the Sabres last year, he should be a good pickup for the Bruins.

 

[stanleyorbust]

I have a hard time considering Foligno on the outgoing side. He was a rental who played a total of 11 games for the leafs including playoffs.

Hyman is the best player - however the leafs had depth issues / not getting balanced scoring from their team last year. The big three were neutralized (Johny T injured) in the playoffs and no one was scoring beyond Nylander, Spezza, and Kerfoot.

Ritchie, Bunting, Kase should put up more points than Hyman, Thornton and Vesey and in a more balance manner across three lines.

Galley and Foligno were brought in after the Vesey experiment failed and the wheels fell off Thornton / Simmonds. Neither put up much offence.

Lots of “ifs” this seasons however I think they are a more balanced team compared to last year.

I think a better comparison is our best line up or playoff roster from last year and potential replacements. Comparing Ho-Sang to Barabanov for example is useless, 1 of them was gone and 1 of them might not even make the team.


So you can compare
Old vs New
Hyman vs Ritchie
Foligno vs Bunting
Thornton vs Kase
Galchenyuk vs Kampf

I think that's a worse top end but a better low end.

 

[zeke]

Wouldn't it make more sense to compare Foligno with Kampf, and Bunting with Galchenyuk?

Bunting > Galchenyuk (hopefully; Bunting is still a bit of an unknown but this is definitely not unrealistic).
Kampf > Foligno. Foligno didn't do anything, so it wouldn't be hard for Kampf to do better.
Kase >>> Thornton. Although we will put guys on waivers who would have been better than Thornton was last year.
Ritchie < Hyman. Hyman has more defensive value. Offensively, it depends on how well Ritchie buys in. I think Ritchie could replace Hyman offensively if he does buy in.

Tough to make the comps but if I were to line them up style and role wise I would probably go with....

Hyman vs Bunting - grit, energy, crease goals
Thornton vs Ritchie - big, slow, skilled
Foligno vs Kampf - defense, top matchups
Galchenyuk vs Kase - depth offense

Though maybe it should be Jumbo vs Kase and Galy vs Ritchie.

And really, foligno isn't a loss because because barely played and was injured in half the handful of games he did play. So he shouldn't even be in the comp.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

We’ve definitely improved this year on paper compared to prior year

 

[4thline]

I don't think it's a given that Hyman will be the best of him Bunting/Ritchie/Kase over the next two seasons or that none of them will be able to give use what he did over the last 3. They're all 3 years younger and Ritchie and Kase (healthy) have been better younger to this point in their careers

 

[Fogelhund]

A team is more than a sum of it's parts. Whether player A is better than player B is irrelevant... how does it fit together, and are they successful in the playoffs? At the end of the day, none of these role players were the reason we lost in the playoffs anyway. Two of our top four weren't good enough, and Tavares was out. That's the whole story right there. Surround them with some other guys, and it will still be the same story, were the top guys, good enough?

 

[Mitch nylander]

Of note, significant cuts coming tomorrow.

I predict we go down to 17 forwards, 8-9 d 3 goalies

Ritchie- Matthews - Marner
Bunting - Tavares - Nylander
Kerfoot - Kampf - Kase
Mikheyev - Brooks - Spezza
Simmonds - Semyonov - Engvall
Ho-sang - Robertson

(Gusev Released, Seney/Anderson/Gabriel/Amadio Waivers, Abramov/SDA/Mckenna/Kopacka AHL)

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Dermott
Liljegren - Mennell
Maybe ~ Biega

(Dahlstrom waived, Hollowell/Rubins/Duszak/Hoefenmayer) AHL

Mrazek/ Campbell / Hutch

(Kalgren/Scott/Woll AHL/ECHL)

That's my prediction - 17 cuts tomorrow.

 

[WinnieThePooh]

You mean the 1.5 games in exhibition he's played?

Ullmark played incredibly well for the Sabres last year, he should be a good pickup for the Bruins.

I disagree with "incredibly well". Hard to say on that awful team, but his advanced stats are about on par with Andersen, in the same realm as Greiss, Quick and Reimer.

His numbers should improve for obvious reasons, but "incredibly well" I would save for someone like Demko or Smith who put up great numbers behind putird defences.

 

[Marmoset]

You are falling into the trap of remembering a couple of teams and thinking it is common. I gave you data. 80% of teams that win the cup do so with one goalie starting all of their playoff games.

Petr Mrazek has been in and out of every playoff run he's been in.
Campbell was in ONE playoff run and lasted 4 games before his play fell off a cliff (.892 over the final 3 games) and has a history of being good in batches but not over long stretches.

If you're looking at the simple question - does our goaltending situation help our cup odds? The answer is no, it does not.

They might both be good goalies but that isn't the question.

I absolutely agree with the bolded point. However, this does not disagree with my comments in any way. I pointed out that in many cases Stanley Cup champions or teams that went on deep runs did so with a starting goalie different from the one who started the regular season. Also, teams have won Stanley Cups with goalies who were not elite, merely 'good'. Antti Niemi won a cup. Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury were both regarded as very average by a lot of people. And so on. These goalies fit within your 80%.

Let's say I accept that you're correct for the sake of argument - how would you address this? You're basically talking about top 5 NHL goalies, top 10 at worst. How would you get one of those guys here to make you confident in our goaltending? It's virtually impossible right now.

The best solution would be to develop your own goalies, but we haven't developed a legitimate #1 since Felix Potvin. Sadly that doesn't look likely to change soon.