Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[Eternal Leaf]

I think it's pretty debatable how much of a discount anyone took.
Henrique is the only one that sticks out as an obvious discount to me.

Yeah I'm not seeing much of a discount anywhere. Henrique is a sweet deal though.

 

[stickty111]

I think it's pretty debatable how much of a discount anyone took.
Henrique is the only one that sticks out as an obvious discount to me.

We'll see how much of a discount they take. If Drai comes in at near Matthews number or above, then there isn't a discount. He didn't take a discount before so why would he now? Edmonton paid more than above market value for him.
The funny thing is Matthews is the one who took a discount on his current contract. Not on term but AAV.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I can't get hyped about next season.

I am totally looking forward to the Summer Showcase, the Hlinka, the Prospects Tournament in Montreal this year, Camp and the new season!

 

[Zero1]

We'll see how much of a discount they take. If Drai comes in at near Matthews number or above, then there isn't a discount. He didn't take a discount before so why would he now? Edmonton paid more than above market value for him.
The funny thing is Matthews is the one who took a discount on his current contract. Not on term but AAV.

Drai can easily make the argument that he’s better than Matthews. While us Leafs fans hope his regular season translates to the playoffs one of these years, it’s not even a contest between them in the playoffs as it currently stands.

Matthews did not take a discount, that is a ridiculous statement.

 

[hamzarocks]

We'll see how much of a discount they take. If Drai comes in at near Matthews number or above, then there isn't a discount. He didn't take a discount before so why would he now? Edmonton paid more than above market value for him.
The funny thing is Matthews is the one who took a discount on his current contract. Not on term but AAV.

Draisaitl is signifcantly better player than Matthews

If hes coming in at or below Matthews another great steal for Oilers

Matthews at 13.25M is already paid at a level that will be tough for him to live up to in the reg season and impossible for him to live up to in the playoffs where hes just another top 6 player

 

[Fogelhund]

Reasonable deal if he's capable of repeating last seasons 55 points, after having had a prior career high of 22 points. This will be a steal of a deal near the end of the deal, if he continues to get better... which is likely. It only buys one year of UFA status, and this contract does walk him to a UFA at 27.

 

[Americanadian]

View attachment 895150

Reasonable deal if he's capable of repeating last seasons 55 points, after having had a prior career high of 22 points. This will be a steal of a deal near the end of the deal, if he continues to get better... which is likely. It only buys one year of UFA status, and this contract does walk him to a UFA at 27.

They're also walking him right to UFA at 26 (27 in August). Seems like a great deal for the player.

 

[Fogelhund]

They're also walking him right to UFA at 26 (27 in August). Seems like a great deal for the player.

It's a pretty good deal on both sides. If the relationship continues to go well, they get the opportunity to sign him to an eight year deal, that takes him to 35. That's not bad...if they can sign him. It carries risk though.

 

[Americanadian]

It's a pretty good deal on both sides. If the relationship continues to go well, they get the opportunity to sign him to an eight year deal, that takes him to 35. That's not bad...if they can sign him. It carries risk though.

There's absolutely a chance it works out that way. Either way he's set up to get overpaid in 2029. It's very rare that a player that good becomes a UFA at 26/27.

 

[LaPlante94]

Based on your logic, Marner was underpaid compared to Kane, because the gap between 94 points and 72 points is bigger than the cost gap. But players don't get paid based on just one season, and I showed you how Marner's entire pre-signing period compares. 6th best in the entire cap era (for which he received the 10th biggest post-ELC contract), and consistent with your chosen comparable.

Marner had 55 more ES points at time of signing. He had 0.631 ES points per game compared to Kane's 0.516, and 2.56 ES points per 60 compared to Kane's 2.12. But what I actually showed you was every single game state. A 20.6% bigger contract for 20.8% higher ES production, 25.5% higher PP production, plus PKing and an extra year.

He was a better PP player. He had 1 less PP point (69 compared to 70). The difference is, Marner did it in 575 PP minutes, and Kane did it in 740 PP minutes, meaning Marner produced better on the PP (7.19 > 5.67).

If you want to adjust for league scoring levels across eras, that would mean a 20.6% bigger contract for 12.8% higher ES production, 21.0% higher PP production, plus PKing and an extra year. Still reasonable.

Not at all, especially if you include playoff numbers on their ELCs, unless GMs and players ignore those stats during contract negotiations.

Now it's ES points? Marner had 148 ES points vs Kanes 137 and that difference came in Marners 3rd year playing with Tavares because they both had 79 their 1st 2 years in the league. On another site it showed Marner with 152 but again, that was all just from 1 season and was identical the 1st 2 when Kane signed his deal. So idk where this 55 more ES points comes from.

Again, idk where you're getting 70 points for Kane to Marners 69. Kane had 28, 35, 29 and Marner had 21, 27, 21. All this he got more minutes talk is just what if bs. Can play that game for everything if you want. What if Chicago had a Matthews and Nylander on another PP unit to take away the better PKers off Kanes unit. What if Chicago had better offensive weapons help Kane out. What if?

Going over all of this and looking at stats and everything just made me realize how dumb our GM was and how he screwed up when it came to all those contracts. Signing Tavares to 11 million dollars to play with Marner for his final year of his ELC and then waiting until after Marners final year to sign him. Just awful all around.

 

[stickty111]

Drai can easily make the argument that he’s better than Matthews. While us Leafs fans hope his regular season translates to the playoffs one of these years, it’s not even a contest between them in the playoffs as it currently stands.

Matthews did not take a discount, that is a ridiculous statement.

Playoffs aren't factored in contract talks.
He did take a discount

 

[Dreakmur]

Playoffs aren't factored in contract talks.
He did take a discount

Anything the team or the player wants to factor in can be factored into contract talks….

 

[seanlinden]

Playoffs aren't factored in contract talks.
He did take a discount

Matthews is the highest paid player in the league.. but a not-small margin.

Is he the best player in the league? No.

"A discount" is one where a player takes less than they're "worth". Given that Matthews is not the best player in the league, he is overpaid.

Like his first overpayment, he also did not leave enough "runway" on the contract for him to become underpaid. It'll be year 3 before McDavid has an opportunity to jump him.

MacKinnon is locked up for a while. Makar will have to wait unitl year 4 to potentially jump him. Pastrnak & Tkachuk are both locked up beyond Matthews.

Rantanen I don't think has the marketability to be in that conversation. Draisaitl maybe in the conversation, but I feel like he's going to max out around what McDavid currently makes.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not at all, especially if you include playoff numbers on their ELCs, unless GMs and players ignore those stats during contract negotiations.
Marner had 148 ES points vs Kanes 137

Kane hadn't done anything special in the playoffs when he signed regardless, and no, Marner had 152 ES points and 69 PP points and Kane had 97 ES points and 70 PP points when they each signed. You keep taking post-signing data that is irrelevant to the contract to deflect from the fact that you were wrong. Marner was a better ES player (2.56 > 2.12) and PP player (7.19 > 5.67). A 20.6% bigger contract for 20.8% higher ES production, 25.5% higher PP production, plus PKing and an extra year is perfectly reasonable.

All this he got more minutes talk is just what if bs.

It's not what if. It's how they produced in that game state. Players don't get paid for the amount of PP time their team got. They get paid for how they perform.
What is "what if" is era adjustments, and you were perfectly fine demanding that until you realized it didn't help your argument.

What if Chicago had a Matthews and Nylander on another PP unit to take away the better PKers off Kanes unit. What if Chicago had better offensive weapons help Kane out.

Marner's unit got the 1st PP matchups, for the record, and he had worse linemate quality than Kane.

 

[Torontonian]

I can't get hyped about next season.

Hyped, no.. Curious, yes.

No big, sexy splash from Toronto this summer (disappointing) -- But I am curious to see with a new coach and revamped d-core (its night and day better from last years game 1 roster), how Toronto looks throughout the season, if they are solid in there own end and can transition up the ice quickly and smoothly. If they can, it should improve the overall team game.

 

[ULF_55]

I disagree completely. He's probably not going to be an amazing player but I think he's got another step in consistency and he's already a pretty solid player anyway, especially at his cap hit. He took some good steps last year, so no reason to think he can't continue an upwards trend. There isn't a magical age where people stop developing or being able to take another step.

I like Minten but he'll need to be a whole lot better than Holmberg, or whoever else, to start waiving players. It's not impossible, just unlikely. Minten can do a lot of development in the AHL playing bigger minutes. If Minten comes in training camp and does very well, then of course you start at looking at who can be demoted based on performance -- and that could be Holmberg. Could also be Reaves or Dewar really.

Yep, not every player is fully cooked at age 24.

Also, linemates ...
Also, Hyman, 16:42 minutes a game versus Holmberg, 11:34 minutes a game.

Age 24:
Hyman

Holmberg

I'm not expecting Holmberg to turn into Oilers Hyman, but could easily turn into Leafs Hyman.

 

[ULF_55]

Yeah I'm not seeing much of a discount anywhere. Henrique is a sweet deal though.

You mean 4 goal Brown didn't take a discount?

 

[Sypher04]

You mean 4 goal Brown didn't take a discount?

The real kicker is between his new salary and the bonuses from last year, Brown is going to cost Edmonton like 4.25M this year

 

[ULF_55]

The real kicker is between his new salary and the bonuses from last year, Brown is going to cost Edmonton like 4.25M this year

What is the going rate for a 4 goal 12 point center?
Well he was on a 9 goal pace in the playoffs ...

Be nice to see Capwages become as detailed as Capfriendly ...

 

[ToneDog]

What is the going rate for a 4 goal 12 point center?
Well he was on a 9 goal pace in the playoffs ...

Be nice to see Capwages become as detailed as Capfriendly ...

If he plays like he did in the SCF, he could score 20.

 

[ULF_55]

If he plays like he did in the SCF, he could score 20.

He has a couple times, but usually he's normally less than 20.

Holmberg can probably match that.

 

[Torontonian]

If he plays like he did in the SCF, he could score 20.

Well, I think Brown said it best at his exit interviews, something along the lines of "The difference is, this summer I'll be training, last summer I was rehabbing".

He's normally good for 10-15g I would say.

 

[Killswitch]

Well, I think Brown said it best at his exit interviews, something along the lines of "The difference is, this summer I'll be training, last summer I was rehabbing".

He's normally good for 10-15g I would say.

He was clearly healthy when he started to play. Seems odd he'd need, as a professional hockey player with many seasons under his belt, the whole season to get in shape while playing almost the whole season. At best a month of playing should have sufficed.

 

[Torontonian]

He was clearly healthy when he started to play. Seems odd he'd need, as a professional hockey player with many seasons under his belt, the whole season to get in shape while playing almost the whole season. At best a month of playing should have sufficed.

I don't think it's that odd, players that miss training camp and a bit of the season always seem to be a step behind. Even though brown was "healthy", training vs rehabbing are two very different things.

 

[1specter]

He was clearly healthy when he started to play. Seems odd he'd need, as a professional hockey player with many seasons under his belt, the whole season to get in shape while playing almost the whole season. At best a month of playing should have sufficed.

Not really odd. At this level even the slightest disadvantages can cause a major impact to performance. Think of how Nylander looked when he joined the Leafs after his contract holdout, he wasn't even injured or anything and had kept training, but getting up to game speed is a different hill to climb.