GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[JKG33]

I am not arguing that those contracts were unprecedented or not, I am simply saying they had a plan and the variables changed for that plan in an unprecedented way.

We will never know if their plan would have worked had the cap kept going up as it was expected to because it didn't.

I'll borrow one of Friedman's favorite sayings here.. you plan, God laughs. That's life.

Yeah? What if people believe that age, experience and a new environment could bring different results?

What if they pointed to Kadri and Hyman as the examples? No averaged half a point per playoff game as Leafs and around a point per playoff game post-Leafs.

You're welcome to think that. I just wouldn't want my favorite team to be thinking "oh geez he's been the same player for 8 years, the 9th one is where he's finally gunna change" and then betting a shittonne of assets and cap space on it.

Kadri.. you mean the same guy who got suspended again his first playoff with the Avs? The guy who should've been suspended the cup year for taking out Binnington? The guy who magically "figured it out" the year he was due a new contract and immediately regressed again?

 

[Dreakmur]

They paid a guy who was in his mid 30's over 6M and gave him 3 years of term even though he was showing signs of play drop-off with absolutely no way of getting out of it

That contract wasn’t good, but it was signed at a time where the cap hit was irrelevant - during a rebuild. The cap hit only became a problem after we prematurely tried to enter a winning phase of our development.

In conclusion, both Lou and Dubas combined to f*** this up, but if we’re making a blame pie, Dubas gets a lot more.

I realize Dubas is basically Satan around here now but only a complete ****wit would blame him for that travesty of a decision

What if someone suggested what they do instead, and with hindsight that looks like the best decision? Is that person a nitwit too?

 

[ToneDog]

There was no "plan", Marleau had a full NMC and wasn't retiring with 6M still on the table

We had zero leverage, literally none

We signed a PPG 1C, nobody had a problem with it and you wanted to bridge Marner? So push our problems a couple of years and make them exponentially worse later

Great plan

Dubas can be blamed for plenty without stupidly blaming him for **** that was dropped into his lap out of his control

What you are ignoring is that Dubas put himself in cap hell which forced him to move Marleau. A first was fair but when the team you think was a SC contender shit the bed the pick turned out higher. Lou deserves all the blame for signing Marleau but I can't blame him for Dubas' solution.

 

[hamzarocks]

i want tomasino on the leafs

Id deal Lilijgren for him

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Broisset

There was no "plan", Marleau had a full NMC and wasn't retiring with 6M still on the table

We had zero leverage, literally none

We signed a PPG 1C, nobody had a problem with it and you wanted to bridge Marner? So push our problems a couple of years and make them exponentially worse later

Great plan

Dubas can be blamed for plenty without stupidly blaming him for **** that was dropped into his lap out of his control

Dubas took a blunder and just compounded it for the worse.

Marleau only had one more year left on his contract. Trading him + a first round pick that became Seth Jarvis only to piss away that cap space made no sense from any standpoint.

He should have either sent Marleau to Robidas Island (he missed 16 games that year anyway) like Klinberg and Murray, or just bridged Marner at a lower salary aav.

Wasting assets to free up 6.25 million in cap space, all so you could jump Marner's salary by 9.5 million is the height of stupidity.

 

[LeafEgo]

Yes, it is true we are the only team in the NHL that checks the boxes in that unique set of attributes. We could do the same for every NHL team, many could look worse than the Leafs too.

Really? Name an actual other team that you feel for hit as hard by Covid, not just saying "all teams" because that is just not true.

What team was entering a window of contention, just locked in four or five key pieces, was a top revenue team that saw revenue take a massive hit, and had key free agents come up for renewal in the Covid window?

I agree we would have weathered Covid better without the Dubas contracts, it's not about that though...which team had their plans impacted more that the TML?

The disproportionate disadvantage the Leafs faced as a result of the flat cap is limited to the difference between the percentage of the cap they had recently locked up vs other teams.

If they locked up 50%, and other teams on average locked up 25%, than the competitive disadvantage was 25%, or 2.5M, against an expected 10M increase. On average, YoY, the disadvantage would be 1.25M through the timeline.

You could play with the numbers a bit, and break things down contract by contract, but given Marner alone was 4M overpaid (per terms of the contract), it's an embarrassing excuse to bring to the table for our failures.

None of the contracts were even full length, so we wouldnt have enjoyed the most fruitful years anyways.

 

[Americanadian]

Who else was buying out a 6M contract for a pick? Go on give me the other names of teams

Are you insane? You wanted to sit Nylander during a contention year?

Please, they were both top 9 wingers with scoring behind them at the time

So don't even try? With the best collection of talent we've had for decades?

There you go again, pretending you could see the future again

Jedi or magic 8 ball telling you this?

Not everyone drank the kool-aid during the Dubas era. Those that called out bad moves at the time should get to celebrate being correct.

The trade I proposed on the main boards that summer was Marleau+Marner for Makar+4OA and I got laughed out of there by Leafs fans. Colorado fans were actually open to it.

For the record I was a huge Dubas supporter from when he was hired right up until he signed Nylander.

i want tomasino on the leafs

Id deal Lilijgren for him

I like the idea of a sheltered line of Knies-Tomasino-Nylander. The issue is Tavares also needs to be sheltered so you’d need a 4th line that can take tough match ups. Or Tavares plays 1LW with Matthews.

 

[notdoneyet]

The regular season means absolutely nothing at this point. Marner is going to have to wait until the playoffs and be the best player on the ice on the regular bringing this team deep to change the fans perspective on him at this point. Not sure either team or player want to wait until then to be honest, that’s a very toxic environment for a majority of the season.

The 69 goal regular season player is just as bad as marner but posters in here blame only one player

 

[Kurtz]

The 69 goal regular season player is just as bad as marner but posters in here blame only one player

Nah, man. Matthews carried us to game 2 win almost single-handedly and then was struck down by Gods with a mystery plague for his sin of giving us hope of beating the Bruins.

Mitch was a ghost all series.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Hoglander, Hronek and Mikheyev for Marner

Hronek and Marner sign respective extensions.

Fair?

Hoglander and Hronek are fine pieces but Mikheyev is a backbreaker.

I still have a fond place in my heart for the guy, but there's two years left and that's a dump we can't afford.

 

[Commander Clueless]

I like the idea of a sheltered line of Knies-Tomasino-Nylander. The issue is Tavares also needs to be sheltered so you’d need a 4th line that can take tough match ups. Or Tavares plays 1LW with Matthews.

If the "4th" line (in name but probably not minutes) goes back to Dewar-Kampf-Jarnkrok, something like that might work. That line was a pretty solid shutdown line in the playoffs.

 

[Gabriel426]

Broisset

Dubas took a blunder and just compounded it for the worse.

Marleau only had one more year left on his contract. Trading him + a first round pick that became Seth Jarvis only to piss away that cap space made no sense from any standpoint.

He should have either sent Marleau to Robidas Island (he missed 16 games that year anyway) like Klinberg and Murray, or just bridged Marner at a lower salary aav.

Wasting assets to free up 6.25 million in cap space, all so you could jump Marner's salary by 9.5 million is the height of stupidity.

Marleau caphit can't be bury at Robidas island bc he was 36 when he signed or something like that.

The 69 goal regular season player is just as bad as marner but posters in here blame only one player

Won't say AM was just as bad, since MM was worse. But AM was not good and really dominated one game and had a really good Game 1. MM and JT didn't even have a dominated period.

 

[Kiwi]

That contract wasn’t good, but it was signed at a time where the cap hit was irrelevant - during a rebuild. The cap hit only became a problem after we prematurely tried to enter a winning phase of our development.

In conclusion, both Lou and Dubas combined to f*** this up, but if we’re making a blame pie, Dubas gets a lot more.



What if someone suggested what they do instead, and with hindsight that looks like the best decision? Is that person a nitwit too?

Wasn't good? they had absolutely no way of getting out of it without Marleau playing ball and we weren't rebuilding, the last year of that contract lined up with a bunch of RFA'S (Kapanen, Johnsson) we were already good when we got him

Either your memory sucks or your just a straight up liar

Prematurely? We had Matthews, Marner Nylander, Hyman, Brown, Kadri, Rielly, JVR, Bozak, and Gardiner

How the **** weren't we going to take a massive step forward with that talent?

Oh wow, big money 3 year deal to over 35 with zero way out turned bad, how ******* surprising

What you are ignoring is that Dubas put himself in cap hell which forced him to move Marleau. A first was fair but when the team you think was a SC contender shit the bed the pick turned out higher. Lou deserves all the blame for signing Marleau but I can't blame him for Dubas' solution.

There was no solution, we were a cup contender going for it and couldn't afford that 6M on the books

Dubas took the only option open to us

 

[Kiwi]

Broisset

Dubas took a blunder and just compounded it for the worse.

Marleau only had one more year left on his contract. Trading him + a first round pick that became Seth Jarvis only to piss away that cap space made no sense from any standpoint.

He should have either sent Marleau to Robidas Island (he missed 16 games that year anyway) like Klinberg and Murray, or just bridged Marner at a lower salary aav.

Wasting assets to free up 6.25 million in cap space, all so you could jump Marner's salary by 9.5 million is the height of stupidity.

No we couldn't, you can't forcibly LTIR a guy against his will, Marleau wanted to continue playing in SJ and we couldn't do anything about it other than keep his useless ass or trade him to Carolina so they could buy him out

We needed to resign Kapanen and Johnsson
That's what the money went towards and **** knows what Marner would be making now if we bridged him, 12M at least

 

[Kiwi]

Not everyone drank the kool-aid during the Dubas era. Those that called out bad moves at the time should get to celebrate being correct.

The trade I proposed on the main boards that summer was Marleau+Marner for Makar+4OA and I got laughed out of there by Leafs fans. Colorado fans were actually open to it.

For the record I was a huge Dubas supporter from when he was hired right up until he signed Nylander.


I like the idea of a sheltered line of Knies-Tomasino-Nylander. The issue is Tavares also needs to be sheltered so you’d need a 4th line that can take tough match ups. Or Tavares plays 1LW with Matthews.

You aren't the GM so what you proposed on the Mains is completely pointless, unlike you have a direct line to Sakic and Shanahan

Do you?

I'm no Dubas supporter either and I've had plenty of problems with the job he's done but I won't blame him for the previous regimes **** ups just like I won't blame Tre for Dubas **** ups

 

[Dreakmur]

Wasn't good? they had absolutely no way of getting out of it without Marleau playing ball and we weren't rebuilding, the last year of that contract lined up with a bunch of RFA'S (Kapanen, Johnsson) we were already good when we got him

We added him when Matthews and Marner were 20, and Nylander was 21.

Lining up with Kapanen and Johnsson was irrelevant until we signed Tavares.

Either your memory sucks or your just a straight up liar

I remember exactly what happened… and I remember exactly what I suggested as an alternative strategy… and hindsight has proven me right.

Prematurely? We had Matthews, Marner Nylander, Hyman, Brown, Kadri, Rielly, JVR, Bozak, and Gardiner

Yes, prematurely. We had some good young forwards and no defensemen. The results speak for themselves.

How the **** weren't we going to take a massive step forward with that talent?

Taking a step forward isn’t the same as contending. We were several years away from contending, but we skipped steps and never ended up getting there.

Oh wow, big money 3 year deal to over 35 with zero way out turned bad, how ******* surprising

There was no need to get out of it until several other bad cap decisions were made.

There was no solution, we were a cup contender going for it and couldn't afford that 6M on the books

Dubas took the only option open to us

As i suggested at the time, we should have moved Kapanen and Johnsson at the peak of their value when they were RFAs. Not only would we have not spent the 1st to move Marleau, but we would have added a 1st and a 2nd.

 

[conFABulator]

I'll borrow one of Friedman's favorite sayings here.. you plan, God laughs. That's life.

You're welcome to think that. I just wouldn't want my favorite team to be thinking "oh geez he's been the same player for 8 years, the 9th one is where he's finally gunna change" and then betting a shittonne of assets and cap space on it.

Kadri.. you mean the same guy who got suspended again his first playoff with the Avs? The guy who should've been suspended the cup year for taking out Binnington? The guy who magically "figured it out" the year he was due a new contract and immediately regressed again?

I am not saying we should keep Marner, I am saying other teams might have reason to believe he could get different results in a new environment and I cited a couple of relevant examples.

I am very much in the "trade Marner" camp and also believe he was signed to a bad contract. I am able to separate these feelings and opinions from the fact that Covid messed up a plan that Dubas had, even though Friedman' statement is correct...you still need to have a plan when you are running a business.

 

[conFABulator]

The disproportionate disadvantage the Leafs faced as a result of the flat cap is limited to the difference between the percentage of the cap they had recently locked up vs other teams.

If they locked up 50%, and other teams on average locked up 25%, than the competitive disadvantage was 25%, or 2.5M, against an expected 10M increase. On average, YoY, the disadvantage would be 1.25M through the timeline.

You could play with the numbers a bit, and break things down contract by contract, but given Marner alone was 4M overpaid (per terms of the contract), it's an embarrassing excuse to bring to the table for our failures.

None of the contracts were even full length, so we wouldnt have enjoyed the most fruitful years anyways.

Two things.

(1) I am not bringing excuses for failures. I am saying we won't know if Dubas would have had more success with his plan if the cap went up.

(2) It's not hard to imagine that this team may have had different results with Hyman, a top 4 D and a goalie that they could have fit in with $20M in additional cap space on top of the four. This MAY have been the plan that Covid messed up. Here is a quote from an article on the Athletic in October 2020.

"Toronto would be at the front of the line for Pietrangelo’s services, pushing the bidding sky high.

But with the cap potentially flat (or near flat) for years, giving a nearly 31-year-old free agent more than 10 percent of your cap space for seven years is a tough ask."

 

[ACC1224]

Hmmmm, let's see, who's to blame?

The guy who gives the over 35 year old over 6M a year with term and a full NMC who could no longer score......

Or the person who didn't sign that deal but was left to deal with the aftermath after it had become toxic

I'm sure you would feel differently if Dubas last name was Marner though

One is blamed for signing the deal, one for botching the aftermath.
Marner had nothing to do with removing Marleau, GM owns that.

Anyways, you seem to be acting pretty childish about it all.

 

[Brobust]

The FAN Morning Show

Start your day with Ben Ennis and Brent Gunning in the mornings! The guys tackle everything Toronto sports and beyond live on Sportsnet 590 The FAN weekdays from 6-9AM ET.

www.sportsnet.ca

Never listened to this show. The hosts are beyond irritating.

 

[ToneDog]

Never listened to this show. The hosts are beyond irritating.

Agreed but the insiders are OK.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I'm not. Show me the last time a player like Cozens (young, high draft pick, NHL success early on) was traded for a player one year from UFA.

Nowhere did I say Cozens was the better player. But the idea of how contracts and age work seems to be lost on a lot of you

Cozens contract is not a positive…people here would be losing their minds paying that much for his production.

He’s had one good year when basically every Sabre had heavily inflated offensive totals due to their complete lack of defensive game.

 

[4thline]

Assuming Greb can make the jump I like the idea of a Dewar-Holmberg-Grebyonkin 4th line, with Reaves drawing in periodically.
It's not a shutdown line, but it handle itself defensively. Lot's of energy, speed, won't cause pain but won't be pushed around and would irritating to play against, enough offensive ability that they should feed off each other.

 

[Gallagbi]

Marleau only had one more year left on his contract. Trading him + a first round pick that became Seth Jarvis only to piss away that cap space made no sense from any standpoint.

He should have either sent Marleau to Robidas Island (he missed 16 games that year anyway) like Klinberg and Murray, or just bridged Marner at a lower salary aav.

Wasting assets to free up 6.25 million in cap space, all so you could jump Marner's salary by 9.5 million is the height of stupidity.

LTIR'ing the league's iron man at that point with approx 800 straight GP would have been interesting.

I do wonder how much the return would have changed if Lou put the bonus in Jul vs. Dec. Seemed like it was a poison pill deal all along and both parties knew it.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

Yes, it is true we are the only team in the NHL that checks the boxes in that unique set of attributes. We could do the same for every NHL team, many could look worse than the Leafs too.

Really? Name an actual other team that you feel for hit as hard by Covid, not just saying "all teams" because that is just not true.

What team was entering a window of contention, just locked in four or five key pieces, was a top revenue team that saw revenue take a massive hit, and had key free agents come up for renewal in the Covid window?

I agree we would have weathered Covid better without the Dubas contracts, it's not about that though...which team had their plans impacted more that the TML?

I found this article written about MLSE and how it was affected by Covid:

The point is that every big entertainment company is struggling. And the Maple Leafs organization, for all of the money they seem to have, are struggling just like everybody else.

Life everywhere in the world has been impacted by the pandemic. In Canada, somehow, you feel as if we’re a little bit more fortunate than our neighbor to the due South;

NHL hockey, but really all professional sports, has been disrupted by the pandemic.

MLSE CEO Michael Friisdahl noted, “These past nine months have been the most challenging we have ever experienced, and while we had hoped to see signs of a return to more normal business operations by now, the effects of the second wave of the pandemic have forced us to brace for further uncertainty.”


The article (again, this was written specifically about MLSE) did not say that the Leafs were affected more than any other NHL team, but these effects were felt league wide.

If you are able to find something that says the Leafs were affected the most by Covid, please feel free to share it, as I was not able to find anything.

Yes, they did lock up 4 key pieces, but they were all FORWARDS, and because of this imbalance in terms of being able to properly address the defense and goaltending positions, I believe is the main/sole reason for them only being able to win 1 round of playoff hockey in the last 6 years.