GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[Fogelhund]

You should never count the chickens that haven’t hatched, pretty sound advice imo………

Clearly you've never had to be involved in planning or forecasting. This is just basic fundamentals of finance, of which I have been involved in professionally for thirty years. Assumed projections are a part of finance and planning, including in many cases risk analysis to variance in those numbers. It's how nearly every business is run, how the stock market values stocks... (well, kind of.. at least the rational people)...

In this case, these are projections from the league and board of governors, based on known revenues half way through the season, and many known revenues for the balance of the season... these aren't numbers drawn on a whim.

Do you really have no idea how the finance world is run?

 

[rumman]

Clearly you've never had to be involved in planning or forecasting. This is just basic fundamentals of finance, of which I have been involved in professionally for thirty years. Assumed projections are a part of finance and planning, including in many cases risk analysis to variance in those numbers. It's how nearly every business is run, how the stock market values stocks... (well, kind of.. at least the rational people)...

In this case, these are projections from the league and board of governors, based on known revenues half way through the season, and many known revenues for the balance of the season... these aren't numbers drawn on a whim.

Do you really have no idea how the finance world is run?

Plan for the worst, hope for the best has served me well my entire life………

 

[thusk]

agree with most, but, the D we bring in need to be able to help contribute on offense too.
Skjei is far and away the best 2-way defender available, and he'd drop Rielly to 2nd pairing.
Walker is the most likely 'affordable' offensive RHD (great skater), while league min $$ Chatfield had 8 goals last season (15 mins a night) I'd love to take a flyer on him for the bottom pairing.
I'd also like to target Roy as he can chip in and has some toughness ...i think Montour will be far out of our price range (and perhaps Skjei also)

ideally, but unrealistic
Skjei - Walker
Rielly - Roy
McCabe - Chatfiled
...we can keep or trade the rest Lili, Benoit

more likely, and possible (and still a huge upgrade over last season)
Rielly - Roy
McCabe - Walker/Carrier
Benoit - Lili/Chatfield

I'm agree for me Skjei for me is the best fit

why i see something like

Skjei-Mccabe
Rielly-Tanev ( will cost less and bring exactly what's leafs need with rielly)
Benoit-Timmins or something else maybe Niemela?

You've got the best d leafs ever had last 20 who can play both side of the ice.

 

[Fogelhund]

I think you're a little low on both Domi and Lindholm AAV's, and less than $13m doesn't get you very far with 3 very big holes to fill (2x top 4 D and a 1A G)

Here is a shopping list... go at it... My Lindholm is higher than this projections. I think Pesce is going to come in lower... Tanev at $4.7 and Roy at $5.8 gives you nearly $2.5 mil for a goalie... You move Timmins, and run with 22 players, you've got $14 mil to work with... It's not far off... but it depends...

Plan for the worst, hope for the best has served me well my entire life………

It's not a bad way to be... and yet, you still have the word plan in there... it's how the world of finance works, using projections... both the best, and the worst... and when you have a pretty accurate projection (which we do), it's what is used in advanced planning. No actual signings of UFA will happen before the actual value is announced, and there will be time to adjust all forecasts, to actuals when that number is accurate.

 

[Americanadian]

Here is a shopping list... go at it... My Lindholm is higher than this projections. I think Pesce is going to come in lower... Tanev at $4.7 and Roy at $5.8 gives you nearly $2.5 mil for a goalie... You move Timmins, and run with 22 players, you've got $14 mil to work with... It's not far off... but it depends...

View attachment 877881


It's not a bad way to be... and yet, you still have the word plan in there... it's how the world of finance works, using projections... both the best, and the worst... and when you have a pretty accurate projection (which we do), it's what is used in advanced planning. No actual signings of UFA will happen before the actual value is announced, and there will be time to adjust all forecasts, to actuals when that number is accurate.

It looks like someone at the daily faceoff typed out this list because there are some minor typos causing some discrepancies between the numbers I'm using and you're using. AFP has Tanev at 4.47Mx3, not 4.75M.

2024 Salary Projections

 

[JKG33]

Here is a shopping list... go at it... My Lindholm is higher than this projections. I think Pesce is going to come in lower... Tanev at $4.7 and Roy at $5.8 gives you nearly $2.5 mil for a goalie... You move Timmins, and run with 22 players, you've got $14 mil to work with... It's not far off... but it depends...

View attachment 877881

I'd make it a priority to get one of Sjkei/Montour, and then one of Zadorov/Roy/Walker/Pesce/Tanev. Or even just two from the second group.

Lindholm being the best C on the market, I could see a team getting desperate and giving him $8m. But ultimately I think he stays in VAN at a reasonable cap hit with how they performed in the playoffs.

I don't see a lot of forwards that're hard to play against on that list. Guentzel is the big prize on the board. But it's mostly all offense first forwards, which means guys like Bert, Domi, Joshua will be in for some big paydays because of how they play

 

[rumman]

Here is a shopping list... go at it... My Lindholm is higher than this projections. I think Pesce is going to come in lower... Tanev at $4.7 and Roy at $5.8 gives you nearly $2.5 mil for a goalie... You move Timmins, and run with 22 players, you've got $14 mil to work with... It's not far off... but it depends...

View attachment 877881


It's not a bad way to be... and yet, you still have the word plan in there... it's how the world of finance works, using projections... both the best, and the worst... and when you have a pretty accurate projection (which we do), it's what is used in advanced planning. No actual signings of UFA will happen before the actual value is announced, and there will be time to adjust all forecasts, to actuals when that number is accurate.

Budgeting for projected increases in the cap is where teams get in trouble. Sure, who saw a pandemic coming, but at the same time they’re fear mongering on the next one be it the buird flu or whatever, and let’s not forget the world is on the brink of the next world war, so excuse me if I caution about projected cap increases, hell the league could be shut down in the very near future, and most posters here could very well be conscripted into the military. Or does everyone hear eat sleep and breathe only hockey news?

 

[Fogelhund]

I don't see a lot of forwards that're hard to play against on that list. Guentzel is the big prize on the board. But it's mostly all offense first forwards, which means guys like Bert, Domi, Joshua will be in for some big paydays because of how they play

I mean.. if Domi wants too much... you switch to Kane, who isn't going to get too much more than he did last year ... with Crouse, Knies, McBain, McMann, Reaves... the lineup has some guys who are hard to play against already.

 

[Americanadian]

Minor interesting note on Joshua and Chatfield: they were born on the same day and grew up 30 minutes away from each other. They have never played on the same team. Given the landscape of minor hockey in Michigan that is kind of wild.

 

[Fogelhund]

Budgeting for projected increases in the cap is where teams get in trouble. Sure, who saw a pandemic coming, but at the same time they’re fear mongering on the next one be it the buird flu or whatever, and let’s not forget the world is on the brink of the next world war, so excuse me if I caution about projected cap increases, hell the league could be shut down in the very near future, and most posters here could very well be conscripted into the military. Or does everyone hear eat sleep and breathe only hockey news?

SO... now you are projecting a bird flu, that might somehow drastically affect next years cap, in JUNE.

There is a maximum of 12 games total left this season... and you are concerned about how a potential bird flu, with zero current cases... or that we are "on the brink of the next world war", which is peak the sky is falling with no evidence.

How much of the season's revenue, do you think is tied up in 12 games?

This doubling down, on completely nonsense now, is hilarious... is there really a black helicopter flying above your house?

 

[rumman]

SO... now you are projecting a bird flu, that might somehow drastically affect next years cap, in JUNE.

There is a maximum of 12 games total left this season... and you are concerned about how a potential bird flu, with zero current cases... or that we are "on the brink of the next world war", which is peak the sky is falling with no evidence.

How much of the season's revenue, do you think is tied up in 12 games?

This doubling down, on completely nonsense now, is hilarious... is there really a black helicopter flying above your house?

We’ll see, like I said prepare for the worst, hope for the best……..

 

[Stephen]

Not sure we need yet another round of rehashing cap growth and mismanagement… but if we’ve learned anything from Dubasnomics there is simply no good pay off to being at the vanguard of escalating salaries.

Sure, a healthy cap increase can lower cap percentages on precedent setting contracts down the line, but teams that are able to secure lower AAVs on comparable talent win even more on those deals as they amortize.

So yeah, just because MLSE can afford to spend at a level that would be NHL+ and overpay this guy or that guy today, doesn’t mean we should in a hard cap environment.

 

[rumman]

Not sure we need yet another round of rehashing cap growth and mismanagement… but if we’ve learned anything from Dubasnomics there is simply no good pay off to being at the vanguard of escalating salaries.

Sure, a healthy cap increase can lower cap percentages on precedent setting contracts down the line, but teams that are able to secure lower AAVs on comparable talent win even more on those deals as they amortize.

So yeah, just because MLSE can afford to spend at a level that would be NHL+ and overpay this guy or that guy today, doesn’t mean we should in a hard cap environment.

Indeed…….

 

[TMLAM34]

Minor interesting note on Joshua and Chatfield: they were born on the same day and grew up 30 minutes away from each other. They have never played on the same team. Given the landscape of minor hockey in Michigan that is kind of wild.

That is pretty crazy. I’d have interest in both, but Chatfield worries me a little. Projections of him getting 3+ million are pretty crazy too me. He’d be a perfect fit next to Benoit on the third pair though.

 

[Menzinger]

Are MLSE making money? Yes, hand over fist. Are they successful on the ice? Not so much. Any businessman will throw money into a investment that’s guaranteed to make them more money any idiot knows this. MLSE have a monopoly on hockey fans in the GTA, and that’s why they could care less about icing a cup worthy team, pit another team in the city and you’d see that change in a hurry, but this is just my opinion, like I said plenty of Leaf fans are happy with the status quo……….

Playoff ticket sales is a massive money generator for ownership, the NHL more so than any other pro sports League relies on gate revenue for profits.

If there was no interest in winning then they wouldn't spend to the cap, they wouldn't spend on high range facilities ect.

What your suggesting doesn't match their actions. Beig bad at winning isn't the same thing as not having an interest or motivation in succeeding.

 

[mydnyte]

Here is a shopping list... go at it... My Lindholm is higher than this projections. I think Pesce is going to come in lower... Tanev at $4.7 and Roy at $5.8 gives you nearly $2.5 mil for a goalie... You move Timmins, and run with 22 players, you've got $14 mil to work with... It's not far off... but it depends...

View attachment 877881

I'm all about defense
looking at these numbers, would you rather
Skjei and Walker for 12.15 (best 2-way defender and best skater)
or
Roy, Tanev and Carrier for 14.5 (most balanced defending and offense)
or
Walker, Carrier and Chatfeild for 12.3 (all puck movement and Offense who can defend but no size/toughness)
I'd be thrilled with
Roy and Walker for 10.45 to be honest.

 

[Fogelhund]

I'm all about defense
looking at these numbers, would you rather
Skjei and Walker for 12.15 (best 2-way defender and best skater)
or
Roy, Tanev and Carrier for 14.5 (most balanced defending and offense)
or
Walker, Carrier and Chatfeild for 12.3 (all puck movement and Offense who can defend but no size/toughness)
I'd be thrilled with
Roy and Walker for 10.45 to be honest.

I had Liljegren signed at $3 mil. This is in addition to Rielly, McCabe and Benoit.. Lajoie/Timmins as 7/8.... If you want three D men, and Liljegren gone, that gives you an additional $3 mil.

 

[Americanadian]

My new favorite iteration of this off-season:

Trade:

To VGK: Marner (50% retained), Dewar (-5.2M)
To CHI: Whitecloud, Robertson, Marner retention (+8.2M)
To TOR: Hill, Korczak, Roy (-3M)

To VAN: Jarnkrok, Liljegren
To TOR: Garland

Kampf to anywhere.

UFA:
Bertuzzi 5.25Mx4
Domi 4Mx4
Joshua 3.25Mx4
Tanev 4.75Mx3
Demelo 5Mx4

RFA:
Korczak 0.8Mx1

This 20 man roster would be 87.7M against the cap. Going into next season the Leafs have Tavares' money+rise in cap (+4.3M) to pay McCabe (5M), Knies (4.5M?), Hill (5M) or Woll (3M).

 

[mydnyte]

I had Liljegren signed at $3 mil. This is in addition to Rielly, McCabe and Benoit.. Lajoie/Timmins as 7/8.... If you want three D men, and Liljegren gone, that gives you an additional $3 mil.

I wouldnt resign him that high 2-2.5 tops x 2 yrs, or I'd deal him ...he should be able to garner a late 1st at the draft, and before people start saying he isnt worth that, he IS at least a middle pair NHL defender, higher on a bad team and lower on a deep one, but, he is a sure thing, and a late first isnt anything major compared to an actual sure thing NHLer.

 

[Brobust]

The leafs should trade for Logan Couture and stash him on LTIR.

My new favorite iteration of this off-season:

Trade:

To VGK: Marner (50% retained), Dewar (-5.2M)
To CHI: Whitecloud, Robertson, Marner retention (+8.2M)
To TOR: Hill, Korczak, Roy (-3M)

To VAN: Jarnkrok, Liljegren
To TOR: Garland

Kampf to anywhere.

UFA:
Bertuzzi 5.25Mx4
Domi 4Mx4
Joshua 3.25Mx4
Tanev 4.75Mx3
Demelo 5Mx4

RFA:
Korczak 0.8Mx1

View attachment 877916

This 20 man roster would be 87.7M against the cap. Going into next season the Leafs have Tavares' money+rise in cap (+4.3M) to pay McCabe (5M), Knies (4.5M?), Hill (5M) or Woll (3M).

JT and William together again. I'm sure that will go well. Also, the defensive upgrade don't nearly make up for all the offence lost.

 

[Americanadian]

JT and William together again. I'm sure that will go well. Also, the defensive upgrade don't nearly make up for all the offence lost.

I am very anti Nylander/Tavares. I do love the 3rd line and 1st line though. Mix and match as you wish.

That would be the best 3rd line the Leafs have had since Marleau-Kadri-Marner. The Joshua-Garland pairing was dominant this year - 62% xGF, 70% GF% in 552 5v5 minutes together. Roy has consistently been a good offensive and defensive bottom 6 center and is better than Blueger who centered Joshua/Garland.

The Leafs don't need more offense in the regular season, they need more offense in the playoffs. This forward group removes Dewar, Kampf, Jarnkrok, Marner, Robertson from the Leafs playoff lineup who combined for 2 goals, 3 assists.

 

[OVO16]

I dont know why but I feel like there is some untapped potential in Jalen Chatfield.

He was predominantly 3rd pairing defenseman with Carolina but I think that had a lot to do with the insane depth Carolina had above him.

We've been rotating guys like Schenn, Lybushkin, etc...trying to find a partner for Rielly. If we miss out on the big boys, Chatfield would be a nice option.

He also has a physical element to his game and nice puck-moving abilities. Could be a nice value contract signing. I'm higher on him than most

 

[Brobust]

I am very anti Nylander/Tavares. I do love the 3rd line and 1st line though. Mix and match as you wish.

That would be the best 3rd line the Leafs have had since Marleau-Kadri-Marner. The Joshua-Garland pairing was dominant this year - 62% xGF, 70% GF% in 552 5v5 minutes together. Roy has consistently been a good offensive and defensive bottom 6 center and is better than Blueger who centered Joshua/Garland.

The Leafs don't need more offense in the regular season, they need more offense in the playoffs. This forward group removes Dewar, Kampf, Jarnkrok, Marner, Robertson from the Leafs playoff lineup who combined for 2 goals, 3 assists.

For a big stats guy, you sure do put a lot of value in playoff sample size scoring. You'd probably bet on DSP and Connelly in 2018.

 

[OVO16]

Seravelli mentioned Chicago for Marner and brought up Seth jones in his podcast today

 

[Americanadian]

For a big stats guy, you sure do put a lot of value in playoff sample size scoring. You'd probably bet on DSP and Connelly in 2018.

Why do you say that? Are you referring to Joshua signing?