Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[Americanadian]

Paying Nylander north of 10M is legitimate cap suicide. Let alone 11M+. You have Point, Tkachuk, Kucherov, Mcavoy within your own division making 9.5M. I would take all 4 of those players over Nylander if I'm trying to win a cup. I would take all of Stutzle, Tkachuk, Thompson over Nylander going forward when you factor in age - they all make <8.5M (same division). Nylander's value will never be higher than it is today. Wait until he inevitably cools off to re-sign him or trade him right now for players that can help the Leafs for years to come.

 

[ACC1224]

Paying Nylander north of 10M is legitimate cap suicide. Let alone 11M+. You have Point, Tkachuk, Kucherov, Mcavoy within your own division making 9.5M. I would take all 4 of those players over Nylander if I'm trying to win a cup. I would take all of Stutzle, Tkachuk, Thompson over Nylander going forward when you factor in age - they all make <8.5M (same division). Nylander's value will never be higher than it is today. Wait until he inevitably cools off to re-sign him or trade him right now for players that can help the Leafs for years to come.

How do you get any of those players ?

 

[Americanadian]

How do you get any of those players ?

6 of the 7 mentioned were drafted by their teams. Thompson was acquired via trade.

 

[ACC1224]

6 of the 7 mentioned were drafted by their teams. Thompson was acquired via trade.

Nylander was drafted here.

 

[Evilhomer]

Paying Nylander north of 10M is legitimate cap suicide. Let alone 11M+. You have Point, Tkachuk, Kucherov, Mcavoy within your own division making 9.5M. I would take all 4 of those players over Nylander if I'm trying to win a cup. I would take all of Stutzle, Tkachuk, Thompson over Nylander going forward when you factor in age - they all make <8.5M (same division). Nylander's value will never be higher than it is today. Wait until he inevitably cools off to re-sign him or trade him right now for players that can help the Leafs for years to come.

You shouldn't get stuck in the mindset of equating yesterday's dollars with today's dollars. Inflation works in sports the same way it does in everyday life. Things cost more today than they did two years ago. The contract a player signs today will be more than the contract signed by a comparable, or maybe even better, player a couple of years. That's just how it works.

 

[Americanadian]

You shouldn't get stuck in the mindset of equating yesterday's dollars with today's dollars. Inflation works in sports the same way it does in everyday life. Things cost more today than they did two years ago. The contract a player signs today will be more than the contract signed by a comparable, or maybe even better, player a couple of years. That's just how it works.

As much as it is true it still screws over the Leafs. If Nylander keeps up his pace and actually puts up 100 points is he worth more than Tkachuk's 11.5% cap hit? That would put him at 10M but you're also signing Willy for ages 28-36 instead of Tkachuk for 24-32. Unfortunately a divisional opponent gets a better player, for cheaper, at a better age. Similarly Point signed for age 26-34 and Kucherov for 26-34.

Nylander was drafted here.

Explain the relevance.

 

[Evilhomer]

As much as it is true it still screws over the Leafs. If Nylander keeps up his pace and actually puts up 100 points is he worth more than Tkachuk's 11.5% cap hit? That would put him at 10M but you're also signing Willy for ages 28-36 instead of Tkachuk for 24-32. Unfortunately a divisional opponent gets a better player, for cheaper, at a better age. Similarly Point signed for age 26-34 and Kucherov for 26-34.

Agreed, but there isn't much you can do about their relative ages at the time they signed their contracts. Chalk it up to good planning by Florida and Tampa. That doesn't make it any less important for the Leafs to sign Nylander. If it costs them more, then they will need to find savings in other areas. My contention has always been that they will find those savings in net. I don't think Samsonov will be resigned. I think they will win with him this season, let him become a UFA, and ride Woll as their starting goalie as of next season. That alone will cover a good percentage of Nylander's increase (or Matthews' increase, if you prefer).

 

[Americanadian]

Agreed, but there isn't much you can do about their relative ages at the time they signed their contracts. Chalk it up to good planning by Florida and Tampa. That doesn't make it any less important for the Leafs to sign Nylander. If it costs them more, then they will need to find savings in other areas. My contention has always been that they will find those savings in net. I don't think Samsonov will be resigned. I think they will win with him this season, let him become a UFA, and ride Woll as their starting goalie as of next season. That alone will cover a good percentage of Nylander's increase (or Matthews' increase, if you prefer).

I fully believe that Woll will be the starter next year. I don't fully believe that he gets you closer to a cup. The question becomes: when do they win a cup? They have proven time and time again that this core can't do it and now you propose they keep them together as they exit their prime and hope they can get it done?

 

[Michoulicious]

With Klingberg getting Robidas'd at the same time Zadorov says he wants to be traded and his agent writes publicly he'd welcome a trade to Toronto, let's just say it is a done deal IMO. It probably took a bit of time to convince Klingberg to go LTIR and give up his season, at least until the playoffs.

My guess is we hear this week Robidas has an ailment that will put him on LTIR for the whole week, and not too long later we'll see the trade.

 

[Evilhomer]

I fully believe that Woll will be the starter next year. I don't fully believe that he gets you closer to a cup. The question becomes: when do they win a cup? They have proven time and time again that this core can't do it and now you propose they keep them together as they exit their prime and hope they can get it done?

I am one of the few who believe that Toronto will win the Cup this season. Gun to my head, I think a big reason for that is that the other teams in the Eastern conference have fallen back to such an extent that Toronto will be the better team in any series they play until the Cup. At that point, you're looking at Colorado, Vegas or maybe Dallas as an opponent, and on the first two I think it's basically a coin flip between those teams and the Leafs.

Starting next season, the team has to work around the last year of Tavares' contract, and for me that is where the savings in net come in. After that season, Tavares presumably resigns at something close to half his current AAV, and even with Marner's inevitable increase the cap situation should be fine.

 

[arso40]

I am one of the few who believe that Toronto will win the Cup this season. Gun to my head, I think a big reason for that is that the other teams in the Eastern conference have fallen back to such an extent that Toronto will be the better team in any series they play until the Cup. At that point, you're looking at Colorado, Vegas or maybe Dallas as an opponent, and on the first two I think it's basically a coin flip between those teams and the Leafs.

Starting next season, the team has to work around the last year of Tavares' contract, and for me that is where the savings in net come in. After that season, Tavares presumably resigns at something close to half his current AAV, and even with Marner's inevitable increase the cap situation should be fine.

The difference for me is what our “third best “ player is capable of doing we finally have a three headed monster sure up the d and go for it

 

[ACC1224]

As much as it is true it still screws over the Leafs. If Nylander keeps up his pace and actually puts up 100 points is he worth more than Tkachuk's 11.5% cap hit? That would put him at 10M but you're also signing Willy for ages 28-36 instead of Tkachuk for 24-32. Unfortunately a divisional opponent gets a better player, for cheaper, at a better age. Similarly Point signed for age 26-34 and Kucherov for 26-34.


Explain the relevance.

If you can’t remember what you posted go back and read it.

 

[Dragao6]

How about we think of it like this as a shape of a budget over the next 3 years, give or take, assuming a worst case Nylander raise...

2023-24

Matthews $11.64 million
Tavares $11 million
Marner $10.9 million
Nylander $ 6.96 million

=$40.5 million

2024-25

Matthews $13.25 million
Nylander $11.5 million
Tavares $11 million
Marner $10.9 million

=$46.65 million

2025-26

Matthews $13.25 million
Nylander $11.5 million
Marner $11.5 million
Tavares $6 million (Optional re-sign)

=$42.25 million

Basically, if Nylander can swap salaries with Tavares over their next deals, and if you assume the Leafs can hold the line on giving Marner a massive raise, the Big 4 doesn't really command that much more money than they do now. So those would be some of the conditions to getting it locked up.

What about McJesus?

Isn't paying Nylander $11.M for one big season a bit like giving MVP money to Huberdeau or Gaudreau after their monster years? Kadri was on a pace for almost 100pts. JT Miller? He was 99pts and is tearing it up again but is he $11M? Is Van on the fast track to a Cup? If another exec is saying that kind of stuff I think he is just dreaming the Leafs would do something that stupid and be bringing Morgan and the castoff D into the playoffs every season for his club to wail on.

One big year is great for trade value but for a club that has mortgaged so much on a top heavy lineup it doesn't make sense to do that again. It is possible that he has risen to a new level but it is a lot more likely it is a Gaudreau spike (except Johnny had a 99pt year on his resume) and they end up with another star who can't quite live up to his paycheck.

I love to watch Willie cook and i wish it were a choice between him and Mitch but I think its more like do they stay with the Dubas road map for success or not? The team has no value deals. Nobody has left any money on the table. That needs to change.

Not even a full year but 15 games or so

Kinda like giving big contract and the C to Suzuki for a single lucky playoff run or caufield a big extension for scoring a few powerplay goals lol

If this is the standard then Vancouver is in big trouble

 

[Kiwi]

I swear only the Leafs get this dumb article from LeBrun every year. Like no shit they want him to leave the Leafs.

There's no doubt that if Nylander wants top dollar, he'll get it. If he wants to be a Maple Leafs, he'll make it work and still be very rich.

Treliving deserves a ton of heat if this doesn't get done though.

I'm not going to blame Treliving when I don't know what the other sides ask is

If Nylander wants 10M and it doesn't get done I'll be the first person wanting his head on a spike but for all I know Nylander could be after Matthew's type money

I'd be pissed if he did sign something like that

 

[WTFMAN99]

I swear only the Leafs get this dumb article from LeBrun every year. Like no shit they want him to leave the Leafs.

There's no doubt that if Nylander wants top dollar, he'll get it. If he wants to be a Maple Leafs, he'll make it work and still be very rich.

Treliving deserves a ton of heat if this doesn't get done though.

Unless it comes out that he wants like 10.5-11M then at that point, we simply can't afford it.

This is Nylander's career year.

What's likely is you get the Nylander for the previous 1 or 2 seasons for 3-5 years and the final 2-3 years of it could end up looking so-so but that's the price you pay when guys are going into their 30s.

 

[ACC1224]

Have there been any leaks?

Nylander wants x and the Leafs are offering y?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Have there been any leaks?

Nylander wants x and the Leafs are offering y?

Just the Lebrun piece with executives throwing out some pretty...wild stuff.

Don't know when Willy won the rocket, scored over 60 goals or posted 115 pts...

Pastrnak is just better at the end of the day.

We're still paying for Dubas messing up the 3 contracts.

 

[ToneDog]

I am one of the few who believe that Toronto will win the Cup this season. Gun to my head, I think a big reason for that is that the other teams in the Eastern conference have fallen back to such an extent that Toronto will be the better team in any series they play until the Cup. At that point, you're looking at Colorado, Vegas or maybe Dallas as an opponent, and on the first two I think it's basically a coin flip between those teams and the Leafs.

Starting next season, the team has to work around the last year of Tavares' contract, and for me that is where the savings in net come in. After that season, Tavares presumably resigns at something close to half his current AAV, and even with Marner's inevitable increase the cap situation should be fine.

If they win the Cup, the Tavares contract won't matter much the following year. He'll then resign at a lower cap hit and we'll go for it again. Hopefully it was not all a dream.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Have there been any leaks?

Nylander wants x and the Leafs are offering y?

Before the season the Nylander camp wanted 10 mil x 8, Tre & Leaf camp was stuck at 9 mil.

Currently, there is some contact but I think the Leafs want to give a bit of time before going fully for it. Off-season Tre was pissed and didn't want to budge, rightfully so due to the high price.

 

[ToneDog]

Just the Lebrun piece with executives throwing out some pretty...wild stuff.

Don't know when Willy won the rocket, scored over 60 goals or posted 115 pts...

Pastrnak is just better at the end of the day.

We're still paying for Dubas messing up the 3 contracts.

View attachment 771168

Don't know about you but if I am a GM and somebody asks me how much 88 is worth, I'd come up with a ridiculous number. Everybpdy loves trolling Leafs and Leafs nation. Pretty much the same way they would claim anybody Dubas put on waivers.

 

[SprDaVE]

I'm not going to blame Treliving when I don't know what the other sides ask is

If Nylander wants 10M and it doesn't get done I'll be the first person wanting his head on a spike but for all I know Nylander could be after Matthew's type money

I'd be pissed if he did sign something like that

It should have done last off-season when both sides were open to sign. I think if the Leafs are offering 10M and change for 8 years, it'll get done.

Unless it comes out that he wants like 10.5-11M then at that point, we simply can't afford it.

This is Nylander's career year.

What's likely is you get the Nylander for the previous 1 or 2 seasons for 3-5 years and the final 2-3 years of it could end up looking so-so but that's the price you pay when guys are going into their 30s.

We definitely can afford it. I'd rather overpay a star by 1-2M or so than not have them around, especially if it stops the GM from chasing Reaves and Klingbergs.

 

[ACC1224]

Don't know about you but if I am a GM and somebody asks me how much 88 is worth, I'd come up with a ridiculous number. Everybpdy loves trolling Leafs and Leafs nation. Pretty much the same way they would claim anybody Dubas put on waivers.

Wouldn't that make the Leafs look good to their fans when it comes in under that number?

I think that was more a Dubas thing than a Leaf thing.

Before the season the Nylander camp wanted 10 mil x 8, Tre & Leaf camp was stuck at 9 mil.

Currently, there is some contact but I think the Leafs want to give a bit of time before going fully for it. Off-season Tre was pissed and didn't want to budge, rightfully so due to the high price.

Just the Lebrun piece with executives throwing out some pretty...wild stuff.

Don't know when Willy won the rocket, scored over 60 goals or posted 115 pts...

Pastrnak is just better at the end of the day.

We're still paying for Dubas messing up the 3 contracts.

View attachment 771168

Yeah I know of the speculated ask may be. Was just wondering if there was anything more concrete.

 

[ToneDog]

Wouldn't that make the Leafs look good to their fans when it comes in under that number?

I think that was more a Dubas thing than a Leaf thing.



Yeah I know of the speculated ask may be. Was just wondering if there was anything more concrete.

It will come down the number. I doubt many Leafs fans will be happy if Willie gets more than Pasta.

 

[ACC1224]

It will come down the number. I doubt many Leafs fans will be happy if Willie gets more than Pasta.

I wouldn't think so but what does that have to do with rival GM's predictions?

 

[ToneDog]

I wouldn't think so but what does that have to do with rival GM's predictions?

So if GMs think Willie deserves $15m and we get him for $12-14m, we should be happy ? Sorry, maybe I do not understand your question, "Wouldn't that make the Leafs look good to their fans when it comes in under that number?".