Trades and Free Agency Thread - Push all the chips in?

[Legion34]

I think the move is with arizona.
Kuemper and Aden hill both need to be protected.

 

[str8kila]

As much as it sucks there's no way dubas is doing anything in season . Plan was always to let freddy be ufa through expansion draft and protect Campbell even if we were re signing. Dubas will see what shakes loose for goaltenders around then. Still a few teams with some options for goaltending. Vegas will need to sort out maf and lehner again this off season . Florida. Arizona. Rangers. Something will happen

 

[SprDaVE]

As much as it sucks there's no way dubas is doing anything in season . Plan was always to let freddy be ufa through expansion draft and protect Campbell even if we were re signing. Dubas will see what shakes loose for goaltenders around then. Still a few teams with some options for goaltending. Vegas will need to sort out maf and lehner again this off season . Florida. Arizona. Rangers. Something will happen

Fair take and I agree.

I will say though, if Campbell also regresses closer to his career stats or can't stay healthy, I do think Dubas and the Leafs probably need to scramble before the deadline to make a change. Buuut even in this scenario, it's likely the Leafs just pray that either one of them goes on a roll.

 

[MarMarSab3]

I think the move is with arizona.
Kuemper and Aden hill both need to be protected.

I wholeheartedly agree I've been on the hill train for over a year now

 

[Fogelhund]

Could be a team issue with Gibson, but it's still a risk.

A large part of the reason I want Kuemper is his consistency. Last three seasons minimum 25 games he's 3rd in the league with 71.6% of his games with a >=.900 SV%.

Some other notable starters

• Bishop, 72.7%, 1st
• Lehner, 71.1%, 4th
• Vasilevskiy, 66.4%, 10th
• Rask, 65.0%, 13th
• Hellebuyck, 60.3%, 23rd
• Andersen, 59.0%, 30th
• Gibson, 55.7%, 47th

Kuemper's goal support has also been garbage. He's only received 2.47 GPG while in net, where as Andersen has received 3.50 GPG. With our goal support and his consistent goaltending we'd be a formidable team.

Source-NHL Stats

Over the last three seasons combined stats, Kuemper, Ullmark and Gibson are very close in both HDSV% and SV%.

Kuemper .833 .927
Ullmark .830 .925
Gibson .831 .920

This year, Ullmark is .879 and .937, Kuemper .807 .921 and Gibson .804 .912

Andersen is .814 and 0.921 this year.

Ullmark is at $2.6 mil (pending UFA), Kuemper at $4.5 mil ( 1 year left) and Gibson $6.4 (6 years left after this.)

Ullmark would be the cheapest to pick up, to resign, and opens up cap space, if we can move Andersen. But Kuemper isn't a bad option either. Gibson seems too expensive to me, and isn't having a good year at all.

Both Ullmark and Kuemper are currently injured, not sure how severe, or chronic.

 

[Leafs1991]

Who does everyone protect in expansion if they bring in a non-rental?

Just random suggestions:

Rakell
Ekholm

Namestnikov
Jankrok

Obviously two create less pause than others, but at what price point do you draw the line? These players that do indeed have more control will cost more to acquire. With that said, it leads to a domino effect which in turn creates another roster loss.

Do you acquire the lessers and hold your breath? Jankrok is the heavy debate here as he is an absolute fantastic fit for this team on good value. But he likely gets claimed over someone like Holl etc.

Internal debate in a risk/reward type of scenario which is why you’ve seen most scenarios focused on rental for this very specific reason.

Cheaper to acquire and you’re acquiring knowing you are likely losing them anyways. But your total losses likely are much easier to digest.

Rakell and Ekholm are fantastic fits who the Leafs CAN acquire, but the package you send out wont be your only loss as of result.

Agreed. Everyone also seems to forget that only one player will be taken. It sucks to lose a player but it's also a good problem to have compared to when Vegas was entering the league, at least for the leafs.

 

[HC7]

Leafs don't need forward or D help. They need a goalie.

Getting Rakell or Ekholm would be like putting 94 octane gas in your sports car meanwhile you still have a flat tire.

 

[pspot]

Agreed. Everyone also seems to forget that only one player will be taken. It sucks to lose a player but it's also a good problem to have compared to when Vegas was entering the league, at least for the leafs.

You can make a trade with Seattle to or not to take a certain player

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

You can make a trade with Seattle to or not to take a certain player

You're better off just losing a player.

Pittsburgh paid Vegas a 2nd to take Fleury. Anaheim paid the price of Theodore to protect Manson and Vatanen.

Give up the player and keep the controllable premium assets. No need to galaxy brain it.

 

[Faltorvo]

I have decided I want Mattias Ekholm.

Imagine adding another Muzzin, another Brodie to this D corps. It makes sense expansion wise as well. Sure we might lose Holl or Dermott, but we are going to lose one anyway.

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Ekholm
Dermott - Holl
Bogosian

Would be INCREDIBLE to have in the playoffs, and that’s a top 4 next season we could play in front of a Sandin-Liljegren pairing if we wanted.


Lets just freaking do it.

I dont think Galchenyuk is good enough to make the Leafs delay making a trade. If something pops up today, I think they'd do it.

OH IDK

i liked what i saw last night from Galy

 

[Faltorvo]

I agree with Rupp here. All in please.

complete and utter pass at all in

we don't have the goaltending to warrant it

 

[NK94]

complete and utter pass at all in

we don't have the goaltending to warrant it

You do understand going “all in” isn’t exclusive to just Ekholm or another forward, right?

 

[Faltorvo]

Who does everyone protect in expansion if they bring in a non-rental?

Just random suggestions:

Rakell
Ekholm

Namestnikov
Jankrok

Obviously two create less pause than others, but at what price point do you draw the line? These players that do indeed have more control will cost more to acquire. With that said, it leads to a domino effect which in turn creates another roster loss.

Do you acquire the lessers and hold your breath? Jankrok is the heavy debate here as he is an absolute fantastic fit for this team on good value. But he likely gets claimed over someone like Holl etc.

Internal debate in a risk/reward type of scenario which is why you’ve seen most scenarios focused on rental for this very specific reason.

Cheaper to acquire and you’re acquiring knowing you are likely losing them anyways. But your total losses likely are much easier to digest.

Rakell and Ekholm are fantastic fits who the Leafs CAN acquire, but the package you send out wont be your only loss as of result.

there will be loss either way ,,we go 7/3 it's one of derm/holl

we go 4/4 (because we got Ekholm) ,,that still leaves holl/derm but also *kerf,,,Engv

looking at things,,going 4/4 is not a bad deal for us

 

[NHL WAR]

Freddy did a lot for this team, but it is becoming less and less likely that he is the guy. In his last 84 regular season starts (dates back to March of 2019), he has a .903 SV%

 

[Faltorvo]

You do understand going “all in” isn’t exclusive to just Ekholm or another forward, right?

i'm not going to live in a childish fantasy land where the cap spreads like the red sea for us

just so our desires and wants can be dreamed about

we are not getting out of the north with this tending,,let alone bigger dreams

 

[NK94]

i'm not going to live in a childish fantasy land where the cap spreads like the red sea for us

just so our desires and wants can be dreamed about

we are not getting out of the north with this tending,,let alone bigger dreams

Well, thanks for answering my question. I already know the anwser.

 

[Faltorvo]

Ekholm is the only one I'm interested in so I would protect 4-4-1

Matthews
Marner
Tavares
Nylander

Rielly
Brodie
Ekholm
Dermott (Because he's younger. He still has a higher ceiling. Cheaper. And is capable of playing both sides)

Campbell

Not going to be popular but I'll explain. I think that would leave exposed Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot and Engvall.

Muzzin because I don't think they would want to touch his contract. Great guy for a new franchise but could be a bad contract in a couple of years. Risky. If they take him it clears 5.6m.

Holl because I think he's overachieved early this year and I think we're starting to see the norm with him now. If they take him it clears 2m.

Kerfoot because he won't be protected over any of the big 4. If they take him that clears 3.5m.

Engvall it would suck to lose him but I'm thinking they would take Holl or Kerfoot anyway.

You need to hone your research skills,,,,, Muzzy has a full no movement clause and after just getting that deal,,something tells me,,he ain't waiving it to leave us and play for gawd knows what kind of team.

 

[kb]

From Mirtle:

'In the most extreme example of what I’m talking about, they could even bring in a much larger salary than Granlund’s. In theory, if they acquired Taylor Hall’s $8 million cap hit, on the day of the trade deadline, after Buffalo retained half of his salary, and a third team retained a further 25 percent, his cap hit would drop to around $465,000.'

Leafs did that very thing for Vegas last season - re: Lehner.

 

[Legion34]

You need to hone your research skills,,,,, Muzzy has a full no movement clause and after just getting that deal,,something tells me,,he ain't waiving it to leave us and play for gawd knows what kind of team.

he can be exposed. It was made clear at the time of the signing.

it expires when he would be with the new team. It’s odd but they were very clear and specific

 

[Martin Skoula]

You need to hone your research skills,,,,, Muzzy has a full no movement clause and after just getting that deal,,something tells me,,he ain't waiving it to leave us and play for gawd knows what kind of team.

Take your own advice, the contract was specifically structured to let us expose him if we want to.

 

[VanW27]

Over the last three seasons combined stats, Kuemper, Ullmark and Gibson are very close in both HDSV% and SV%.

Kuemper .833 .927
Ullmark .830 .925
Gibson .831 .920

This year, Ullmark is .879 and .937, Kuemper .807 .921 and Gibson .804 .912

Andersen is .814 and 0.921 this year.

Ullmark is at $2.6 mil (pending UFA), Kuemper at $4.5 mil ( 1 year left) and Gibson $6.4 (6 years left after this.)

Ullmark would be the cheapest to pick up, to resign, and opens up cap space, if we can move Andersen. But Kuemper isn't a bad option either. Gibson seems too expensive to me, and isn't having a good year at all.

Both Ullmark and Kuemper are currently injured, not sure how severe, or chronic.

Over the last three seasons combined stats, Kuemper, Ullmark and Gibson are very close in both HDSV% and SV%.

Kuemper .833 .927
Ullmark .830 .925
Gibson .831 .920

This year, Ullmark is .879 and .937, Kuemper .807 .921 and Gibson .804 .912

Andersen is .814 and 0.921 this year.

Ullmark is at $2.6 mil (pending UFA), Kuemper at $4.5 mil ( 1 year left) and Gibson $6.4 (6 years left after this.)

Ullmark would be the cheapest to pick up, to resign, and opens up cap space, if we can move Andersen. But Kuemper isn't a bad option either. Gibson seems too expensive to me, and isn't having a good year at all.

Both Ullmark and Kuemper are currently injured, not sure how severe, or chronic.

Where are you getting those numbers from or are mine way off? For Gibson this year I have:
SV% .894
HDSV% .743

Last 3 years
SV% .908
HDSV% .821

Andersen this year
SV% .897
HDSV% .763

Last 3 years
SV% .911
HDSV% .787

Essentially Gibson is one of the few goalies the league who've actually been worse than Andersen.

Looking at Andersen's stats the main things you see is he's been consistently among the worst in the league at stopping scoring chances, while being quite good at making the saves he should make. This year it's gotten even worse against scoring chances. Maybe this is what feeds into the narrative he's good but our defence is the problem, but in reality NHL goalies stop the majority of scoring chances. Eg. Leafs left man open in the slot, nothing Andersen can do about that... but there is.

 

[Fogelhund]

Where are you getting those numbers from or are mine way off? For Gibson this year I have:
SV% .894
HDSV% .743

Last 3 years
SV% .908
HDSV% .821

Andersen this year
SV% .897
HDSV% .763

Last 3 years
SV% .911
HDSV% .787

Essentially Gibson is one of the few goalies the league who've actually been worse than Andersen.

Looking at Andersen's stats that main things you see is hes been consistently among the worst in the league at stopping scoring chances, while being quite good at making the saves he should make. This year it's gotten even worse against scoring chances. Maybe this is what feeds into the narrative he's good but our defence is the problem, but in reality NHL goalies stop the majority of scoring chances. Eg. Leafs left man open the slot, nothing Andersen can do about that... but there is.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

The numbers I quoted were 5v5. Perhaps yours are in all situations? We know that Andersen seems to struggle on the PK, bringing his numbers down.

 

[VanW27]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

The numbers I quoted were 5v5. Perhaps yours are in all situations? We know that Andersen seems to struggle on the PK, bringing his numbers down.

Ah I see, you're looking at 5 on 5 SV% for your overall SV% number. That's why there's such a difference.

I left it as all situations since I consider the crux of the PK sv% issue as the same as the main issue overall, inability to make saves on scoring chances. It's just that on the PK you give up more chances.

 

[HC7]

This would never happen and it doesn't make sense but I'd give up...

Andersen, Rielly, Robertson, Amirov, 2021 1st +

for

Ullmark, Dahlin, Staal 50%, Hall 50%

or

Andersen, Rielly, Amirov (They'd want Robertson, prob both), 2021 1st

for

Gibson, Lindholm, Rakell

 

[Faltorvo]

Wouldn’t we be better off doing something involving Amirov for John Gibson?

the 2m saved on Kuem over Gib would go a long way in signing Hyman