Trades and Free Agency Thread - Push all the chips in?

[TheShape]

I would agree, but the only thing is I don't know who we could have got.

I am not a fan of that Markstrom contract and would rather give Campbell a chance. Lehner has been iffy so far too, and he wanted to stay in Vegas. Holtby has been bad. Murray has been worse.

You are pretty much down to Allen, Dubnyk, and Talbot... And giving Andersen a second chance was probably a better option.

At least with Andersen you get out of the contract and you are not saddled with anything going forward, especially with expansion potentially making some good goalies available. It just sucks that he had to be this bad, which was unimaginable even with last year's play. Even last year's play would probably give us a comfortable lead in the division right now.

I agree the UFA market was thin, but this was about the 3rd-4th chance for Andersen here? Dubas probably felt with bolstering the D it would lessen the workload on Andersen, but Freddy's problem as we all know is mental. The tighter the game, the smaller he gets.

I just think the team needed a different look back there and Dubas failed in that regard. Holtby has been bad yes, but maybe behind our defense he looks at least average? Arizona are a cash strapped team with 3 goalies, neither Kuemper or Raanta have much term. Vegas were literally trying to give away Fleury. There were some options out there.

I don't know if Campbell is the answer going forward but he is the better goalie, season is a write off if he can't stay healthy.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Kuemper is currently injured & week-to-week, but with quarantine and Andersen's play, who cares. Arizona have lost five straight without him and will likely fall right out of the playoff race in his absence. Kuemper is signed through next year at 4.5 AAV and will be back before the playoffs. Assuming Andersen will waive for AZ,

Andersen+Amirov for Kuemper.

Last three seasons including this year,
W-50 L-38 OT-12 SV%-.924 GAA-2.31 QS%-.676

 

[Stephen]

Kuemper is currently injured & week-to-week, but with quarantine and Andersen's play, who cares. Arizona have lost five straight without him and will likely fall right out of the playoff race in his absence. Kuemper is signed through next year at 4.5 AAV and will be back before the playoffs. Assuming Andersen will waive for AZ,

Andersen+Amirov for Kuemper.

Last three seasons including this year,
W-50 L-38 OT-12 SV%-.924 GAA-2.31 QS%-.676

Wouldn’t we be better off doing something involving Amirov for John Gibson?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I agree the UFA market was thin, but this was about the 3rd-4th chance for Andersen here? Dubas probably felt with bolstering the D it would lessen the workload on Andersen, but Freddy's problem as we all know is mental. The tighter the game, the smaller he gets.

I just think the team needed a different look back there and Dubas failed in that regard. Holtby has been bad yes, but maybe behind our defense he looks at least average? Arizona are a cash strapped team with 3 goalies, neither Kuemper or Raanta have much term. Vegas were literally trying to give away Fleury. There were some options out there.

I don't know if Campbell is the answer going forward but he is the better goalie, season is a write off if he can't stay healthy.

So you are saying we should have moved our goalie after the second Boston series? Perhaps, but we didn't really have a strong defense at that point (the defense was arguably holding him back, as were guys like Gardiner and Kadri) and he was still fairly good outside of those one-off games. I would definitely take an Andersen under Lou on this team right now, but with the quality of defense we had under Dubas. That's a Cup winning roster.

Goaltending is a lot more fickle to solve. It was a lot easier for Dubas to figure out how to solve defense, because there are a lot more options and it is usually a lot less volatile. There is a formula for finding good goaltending, but the options who fit said formula are far and few between, and one of the key ingredients for that formula (mental game) is so volatile for pretty much every goalie that a guy could have it at one point and totally lose it at another. Just look at Andersen's career; when he has his mental game on, he was a top 5 goalie... When it was off, he was barely an NHL goalie. Or look at Carter Hart who looked like the next Vasilevsky the past two years and people would have been jumping for joy if we got him, but if he played like he has been playing this year, we'd be doing even worse than if we stuck with Andersen. Heck even look at Gibson, who everyone calls elite, but he has been far from it for two years now in Anaheim. Obviously a lot of that has to do with playing on a subpar team, but a lot of blame still falls at his feet as well.

Dubas is not stupid. He knows Andersen is not cutting it. He also knows he doesn't help himself, Andersen, or his team by saying that he knows that to the public because for the time being, Andersen is still important and we need him to play well. What we do know is that he already was sniffing around for goalie upgrades dating back to last season, and is probably secretly doing so this year as well. Wouldn't be surprised that he is having so many fingers in so many pies because he is trying to hide the fact that he is looking for a goalie from the media (and specifically Andersen) and we see something somewhat out of left field just like we did with the Muzzin trade.

Holtby has just looked bad. It is not a defense thing. He has suffered from the same sort of thing as Andersen. Fleury is super inconsistent and comes at a 7 mill price tag. You think we should have brought in a 35 year old goalie coming off a .905 season with 2 years left at 7 mill? Not a good idea, and still is not a good idea. Also, anyone will look worse when they come from that weak West division into the red hot offensive North Division. Raanta has struggled with injuries and inconsistencies. Kuemper has as well. Ultimately it also comes down to teams wanting to make a deal too, and maybe the prices sucked. Maybe they still suck.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

So you are saying we should have moved our goalie after the second Boston series? Perhaps, but we didn't really have a strong defense at that point (the defense was arguably holding him back, as were guys like Gardiner and Kadri) and he was still fairly good outside of those one-off games. I would definitely take an Andersen under Lou on this team right now, but with the quality of defense we had under Dubas. That's a Cup winning roster.

Goaltending is a lot more fickle to solve. It was a lot easier for Dubas to figure out how to solve defense, because there are a lot more options and it is usually a lot less volatile. There is a formula for finding good goaltending, but the options who fit said formula are far and few between, and one of the key ingredients for that formula (mental game) is so volatile for pretty much every goalie that a guy could have it at one point and totally lose it at another. Just look at Andersen's career; when he has his mental game on, he was a top 5 goalie... When it was off, he was barely an NHL goalie. Or look at Carter Hart who looked like the next Vasilevsky the past two years and people would have been jumping for joy if we got him, but if he played like he has been playing this year, we'd be doing even worse than if we stuck with Andersen. Heck even look at Gibson, who everyone calls elite, but he has been far from it for two years now in Anaheim. Obviously a lot of that has to do with playing on a subpar team, but a lot of blame still falls at his feet as well.

Dubas is not stupid. He knows Andersen is not cutting it. He also knows he doesn't help himself, Andersen, or his team by saying that he knows that to the public because for the time being, Andersen is still important and we need him to play well. What we do know is that he already was sniffing around for goalie upgrades dating back to last season, and is probably secretly doing so this year as well. Wouldn't be surprised that he is having so many fingers in so many pies because he is trying to hide the fact that he is looking for a goalie from the media (and specifically Andersen) and we see something somewhat out of left field just like we did with the Muzzin trade.

Holtby has just looked bad. It is not a defense thing. He has suffered from the same sort of thing as Andersen. Fleury is super inconsistent and comes at a 7 mill price tag. You think we should have brought in a 35 year old goalie coming off a .905 season with 2 years left at 7 mill? Not a good idea, and still is not a good idea. Also, anyone will look worse when they come from that weak West division into the red hot offensive North Division. Raanta has struggled with injuries and inconsistencies. Kuemper has as well. Ultimately it also comes down to teams wanting to make a deal too, and maybe the prices sucked. Maybe they still suck.

I'm still on the train to take a shot at a buy cheap guy like Stolarz with decent NHL numbers when taking into consideration SA/60 and high danger chances/saves. Small sample size but he's better than Hutch at the very least and would add depth. Also signed the next two seasons. I'm curious to see how he plays behind that Ducks defense with Gibson out.

 

[123offtheglass]

23 days from TDL

In terms of sellers right now with rental forwards worthwhile & available there's (with retention):

Sellers:
- Buffalo (8m Hall) But he's looking to go somewhere with future stability and an extension. Retention and Kerfoot going the other way is a must; this is unlikely but possible. Obviously no extension here.
- Nashville (3.75m Granlund, 1.75m Haula meh)
- Detroit (1m Ryan meh)
- Ottawa (3.375m Dzingel meh)
- San Jose (0.7m Nieto meh)
- New Jersey (4.65m Palmieri) but talking extension now so he'll likely be at least a 1-2 weeks before being available
- Vancouver (3.75m Pearson) Injured until after TDL & they had some interest in talking extension

Not sellers quite yet:
- Los Angeles (2.425m Iafallo) Maybe they're already sellers; they're 5pts out with a game in hand on STL and likely to become sellers very soon. Iafallo should be available but I wouldn't be surprised if they elect to keep him & extend him as he's very important to their team, has chemistry with Kopitar. Only 27.
- Columbus (5.5m Foligno) They're very much in a playoff race (2pts out) with Chicago who is likely to come back to life. CBJ always has strong 2nd halves under torts. They're probably staying put or selling <1week out from deadline.
- Philadelphia (2.3m Laughton) very unlikely they become sellers but it is possible, likely at least weeks away. More of a really good 3rd line guy than a top 6.

Personal Pick: but not a forward.
- Dallas (2.1375m Oleksiak) He's a LHD but still a good option if there's extra cap leftover (after forward trade) or the forward search fails. A good team waiting on injured players, like CBJ they're in a playoff race but they have 30 games left to play in 52 games & are behind. They're likely at least 1-2 weeks from deciding if they're sellers.

For guys with term, they gotta be worth it because they'll mess up the expansion draft format:
- Nashville isn't interested in moving Forsberg (6mx2) & his cap would be costly to retain if they're even willing.
- Anaheim is listening on Rakell (3.79mx2) but may elect to keep him. Leafs could make a deal here but some retention (just under 50% is possible, closer to TDL is less & less) is necessary unless Kerfoot is involved.

Trade Machine - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
Emergency loans can save us when players need to quarantine. Ex: We acquire Granlund and are right up against the cap with 20 skaters (the minimum) with Granlund being 1 of the 20 but he can't play for 2+ weeks. Galchenyuk or player with Granlund cap hit or less can take his place on an emergency loan for the time being.

This being the case, as of today the Leafs can acquire a player with a cap hit of $2,175,134.56

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'm still on the train to take a shot at a buy cheap guy like Stolarz with decent NHL numbers when taking into consideration SA/60 and high danger chances/saves. Small sample size but he's better than Hutch at the very least and would add depth. Also signed the next two seasons. I'm curious to see how he plays behind that Ducks defense with Gibson out.

I don't think the Leafs should be taking a shot in the dark. At that point, you might as well just do it with Vehvilainen and give him a chance as a #3 if we don't like Hutch. I don't like Hutch, but he's been acceptable as a #3 (Ottawa game aside).

Stolarz has played literally 1 game with Anaheim and was not great for Edmonton and Philly before that. He's a #3 at best, and we need to aim much higher than a #3.

 

[123offtheglass]

Think Iafallo might be the dark horse and even best fit for the Leafs, and he's actually affordable if they can pry him from LA. He's a good two-way complementary player to Kopitar which is why he plays so much with him. The 2 lead their team in ice time at even strength, penalty killing (L.A. has a good PK too which is a good sign) & powerplay although that isn't where Iafallo is nearly as effective & for the Leafs he wouldn't need to be, he'd likely be on their 2nd unit if at all. In LA he plays the bumper role which we only really have one natural for (Tavares) but a surplus of of wing and net front guys.

Here Siegel wrote about him as the Leafs #1 target:
The Maple Leafs' top 10 trade deadline targets: Taylor Hall, Eric Staal, Tanner Pearson and more

When comparing him to the Leafs top 6 forwards, yes he plays with Kopitar who is a great player but so are our top 6 forwards who play together and our team is higher scoring is much higher scoring than the Kings (28.4% more): NHL Stats

In comparison to our centers, Kopitar & Iafallo get more D-zone starts/O-zone starts. They also are among the few with a positive plus/minus despite their defensive responsibility on the team that has a goal differential of -30 from 2019-present. NHL Stats
NHL Stats

Keep in mind with higher minutes like with our top players, the more they play the less efficient you expect them to be (e.x. fresh Spezza is killing it at around 10 minutes a night but I wouldn't expect double the production if he were playing 20 minutes a night).

Here is the comparison of even strength ice-time & production to our top forwards:
LAK: NHL Stats
NHL Stats
TOR:
NHL Stats
NHL Stats

Despite being on a team that's less offensive while having more defensive responsibility, here are their g/60 & pts/60 at even strength from 2019-present.

@even stregnth:
Kopitar: .672 g/60, 2.052 pts/60
Iafallo: .613 g/60, 1.920 pts/60

Matthews: 1.638 g/60, 2.763 pts/60
Marner: .881 g/60, 2.723 pts/60
Tavares: .903 g/60, 2.200 pts/60
Nylander: 1.256 g/60, 2.350 pts/60
Hyman: 1.114 g/60, 2.089 pts/60

Feel like Iafallo may be underrated or overlooked just by the fact that he plays so much with Kopitar included, especially by myself. I viewed him as sheltered when really he just seems good and complementary. They definitely have winning habits as they're leading a team that isn't great yet they are doing alright in the Standings. He seems like their Hyman even if ours is much better.

Having a Hyman and Hyman-lite on this team would be great because we seem to need him everywhere. He'd be familiar to the role we'd expect from him. We could have Hyman & Iafallo on the 1st & 3rd line, or even each on our top 6 lines.

 

[613Leafer]

Freddie + pick, prospect, or whatever, for a goalie from a non-playoff team. A few options:

Ulmark - pending UFA on a terrible Buffalo team, but sitting on a 0.919 save %.
Khubodin - pending UFA, not having his best season, but he did have a 0.930 last year during the regular season and was a key factor in Dallas going to the finals.
Dubnyk - pending UFA, also not having the best season, but his stats are still better than Freddie's and that's playing for a really bad San Jose team.
Kuemper - has one more year on his deal after this one, so we'd have to expose one of Campbell or Keumper to the expansion draft, plus his trade cost would probably be higher. However, he's also only 30 years old, and has low key been one of the best goalies in the league the last few years.

 

[DcW]

Hard to imagine a scenario where Dubas addresses goaltender in season. Would be such a risky move for Dubas. I’m picture Freddy getting traded, gets rested and plays well for a playoff team while the Leafs new addition does the opposite.
The realist scenario is wait till the off-season, not resign Freddy and see what goalies shake loose.
Not saying it’s the right move, just saying the risk/reward is not there for Dubas based on who would be available

 

[123offtheglass]

Hard to imagine a scenario where Dubas addresses goaltender in season. Would be such a risky move for Dubas. I’m picture Freddy getting traded, gets rested and plays well for a playoff team while the Leafs new addition does the opposite.
The realist scenario is wait till the off-season, not resign Freddy and see what goalies shake loose.
Not saying it’s the right move, just saying the risk/reward is not there for Dubas based on who would be available

I see the risk in keeping him, it's looking like high risk low-medium reward at this point. He also hinders management from improving the team in front of him due to his cap hit of 5m; there are lateral moves and improvement better than 5m.

He likely won't do it but if Fred struggles & Campbell does or isn't healthy, and a goalie is out on the block then I could see it.

I'm really hoping Campbell takes his chance and runs with it. Maybe rest can get Fred back to what he was or at least 1/2 of what he was. He's been pretty bad considering how good the team has been defensively, it's a shame.

 

[Stigma]

As someone mentioned previously, the more I think about it, the more I think that trading one of our top prospects for a winger is a bad idea. It's not really the issue. Now with Simmonds back, and a reshuflling of lines, things will look better in that department. Also, Gally scored in the double digits for years....as early as 2 years ago. Give the man a chance. Robertson is an option for a few games too.

 

[Legion34]

I dont see how they can think we have a chance with the goaltending we have had.

Campbell reoccurring injury.
Hutch being hutch

freddie seems like he has been playing drunk for a year and a a half

like 6’5 240 lbs how does the puck not even just hit you more than 14/18 times. It’s like he is actively moving out of the way

I honestly wouldn’t pay prospects with this goaltending. Address that issue or just ride it out and hope Andersen sobers up

 

[Cappuccino]

Hard to imagine a scenario where Dubas addresses goaltender in season. Would be such a risky move for Dubas. I’m picture Freddy getting traded, gets rested and plays well for a playoff team while the Leafs new addition does the opposite.
The realist scenario is wait till the off-season, not resign Freddy and see what goalies shake loose.
Not saying it’s the right move, just saying the risk/reward is not there for Dubas based on who would be available

but what would the reaction of the fanbase be if Dubas gives up one of the top prospects and a first round pick for some winger for example, and the Leafs lose in round one of the playoffs again, because of the goaltending?

(to make this scenario even worse: and what if a Canadian teams wins the cup)

 

[supermann_98]

Hard to imagine a scenario where Dubas addresses goaltender in season. Would be such a risky move for Dubas. I’m picture Freddy getting traded, gets rested and plays well for a playoff team while the Leafs new addition does the opposite.
The realist scenario is wait till the off-season, not resign Freddy and see what goalies shake loose.
Not saying it’s the right move, just saying the risk/reward is not there for Dubas based on who would be available

While I'd normally agree that changing goaltenders mid-season isn't ideal I'd say the biggest risky move for Dubas would be to go into the playoffs with Freddie who's shown time and time again he's just not built mentally for pressure situations.

I'm a believer in Dubas but if he trades ANY of our top 4 prospects or our 1st rounder and we still have Freddie as our starter in the playoffs I am fully onboard the fire-Dubas wagon. He used his card already to fire his coach, now the teams performance and more importantly it's playoff-performance is completely on him

 

[ToneDog]

While I'd normally agree that changing goaltenders mid-season isn't ideal I'd say the biggest risky move for Dubas would be to go into the playoffs with Freddie who's shown time and time again he's just not built mentally for pressure situations.

I'm a believer in Dubas but if he trades ANY of our top 4 prospects or our 1st rounder and we still have Freddie as our starter in the playoffs I am fully onboard the fire-Dubas wagon. He used his card already to fire his coach, now the teams performance and more importantly it's playoff-performance is completely on him

Kid Kyle has gotten himself into a pickle. A week ago it was we are going "all-in" and now his goaltender can't stop a beach ball. If it is money in and money out, it is going to take some manuvering to fix the goaltending and add that top 6 forward and depth dman.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Kid Kyle has gotten himself into a pickle. A week ago it was we are going "all-in" and now his goaltender can't stop a beach ball. If it is money in and money out, it is going to take some manuvering to fix the goaltending and add that top 6 forward and depth dman.

He hasn't really gotten himself into one - but one has been presented to him. He literally went into this season with 4 NHL-calibre tenders... other than a big move I don't know how much more you can do to stockpile and safeguard. We lost one to waivers, one to injury, and for all the trash talk about Hutchinson he's sporting a 2.39 and a >920 svp for us.... as a backup that is McElhinney territory of decent backups. When your #1 takes a huge nose dive you will have issues, no matter what.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Freddy can just go on ltir. He has forgotten how to stop a puck which seems like a mental health issue. Send him to robidas island for some rnr for the remainder of the season. Trade for a goalie who has similar salary and is in the middle of the pack when it comes to stats.

 

[JEI]

Some of you are REALLY undervaluing the current state of this league and trades. Not to mention how difficult a good goalie trade is in a regular season: amount of partners, amount of actual upgrades. It's going to be even more complicated to make even a simple trade with quarantine rules, flat cap IMO. I hope I'm wrong for entertainment sake, but I'm not setting myself up for anything major and I'm expecting a lot of GM's to come out and echo what I've said above after the deadline.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Freddy can just go on ltir. He has forgotten how to stop a puck which seems like a mental health issue. Send him to robidas island for some rnr for the remainder of the season. Trade for a goalie who has similar salary and is in the middle of the pack when it comes to stats.

his body language is terrible - he's not doing himself any favors playing through an injury in his contract year here. Take 1-2 weeks and regroup.

 

[123offtheglass]

Kid Kyle has gotten himself into a pickle. A week ago it was we are going "all-in" and now his goaltender can't stop a beach ball. If it is money in and money out, it is going to take some manuvering to fix the goaltending and add that top 6 forward and depth dman.

Team isn't right up against it, they have some money to spend between now and the deadline but not a lot.

 

[ToneDog]

He hasn't really gotten himself into one - but one has been presented to him. He literally went into this season with 4 NHL-calibre tenders... other than a big move I don't know how much more you can do to stockpile and safeguard. We lost one to waivers, one to injury, and for all the trash talk about Hutchinson he's sporting a 2.39 and a >920 svp for us.... as a backup that is McElhinney territory of decent backups. When your #1 takes a huge nose dive you will have issues, no matter what.

I think he knew Andy was not the answer in the offseason but was not able to find the right deal. That may be his waterloo.

 

[ToneDog]

Team isn't right up against it, they have some money to spend between now and the deadline but not a lot.

Yup they have enought to rent David Ayers. Either way he can get a thrird team to retain if needs be but it will take a lot of manouvering. Hope he has enough time to make something happen by the TDL.

 

[dubplatepressure]

I think he knew Andy was not the answer in the offseason but was ot able to find the right deal. That may be his waterloo.

Perhaps. Hindsight is 20/20 though and I give him credit for bringing in Hutch, Dell, and Campbell. It's tough to criticize deals not made when we don't know what the other side of that conversation is demanding. I do believe that Dubas lets Andy walk this summer though.

 

[FelixPotvin29]

What is the protection strategy for the Leafs? I have no idea how it works this time around.

Going to quote myself here but is this close to the Leafs expectations for player protection for the expansion draft?

1. Auston Matthews
2. Mitchell Marner
3. John Tavares
4. William Nylander
5. Ilya Mikheyev
6. ?
7. ?

1. T.J. Brodie
2. Jake Muzzin
3. Morgan Reilly

1. Jack Campbell

Notable: Hyman re-signed after the draft. Andersen gone to FA.

This leaves Holl, Dermott, Kerfoot, Hutchenson as the most prominent players exposed.

Alternatively this gives the Leafs an option to add an additional forward or two with term but not a defence man?

If they add a defence man then they risk losing Mikheyev (going to an 8 skater model) and any other new forward with term?

I got to say if this is the case it will be expensive to improve or tweak the team. I don’t want to lose Mikheyev at all although it might be worth the risk if they can get an excellent defence man with term at a good cap hit.