Trades and Free Agency Thread - Push all the chips in?

[Faltorvo]

Ekholm also plays 3rd fiddle on offense behind Josi and Ellis ...so putting up points is not his main role.
I see him as a potential Reilly replacement
the expansion draft would cause issues. i definitely protect Ekholm, and Brodie then you pick between Reilly/Muzzin (7/3) and is both are still on the squad, it would have to be Reilly , so Muzzin is exposed.
I'd keep Reilly for the playoff run, and trade him before the draft, unless we can flip Reilly for a young/cheap/gritty top 6 forward
i guess we could always go 4/4 and have a decent D und then dump the D with the bigger ask, or Muzzin if he regresses.

put a decent D + safe tender infront of this team and it's $$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Twine Tickler]

I think that's about the right price for Ekholm, however, there might be a couple organizations (right, or wrong) that would be willing to swoop in and pay a little bit more, especially if Nashville will retain...

What hurts Toronto is that they project to have such a low 1st round pick. If that pick was projected closer to #20 than #30, it would probably help their cause, but I think they'll have to pay slightly higher on the prospect end of things (or be willing to add a 2nd pick) than a team like Montreal as an example, whose 1st round pick, right now, projects to be better.

I think I might go as high as the following for maximum retention on Ekholm, through next year.

2021 1st round pick
2022 3rd-4th round pick
Topi Niemela
Ronnie Hivonen / Filip Hallander

The way I see it, if I can bridge the gap with a quality pick outside of the first 2 rounds, and get away with Niemela instead of Amirov, I highly consider it.

I think this is a fair deal. One I would think Nashville does very well on. Ultimately there is little difference from pick 20-30. Yes, I hear what you are saying, but it you are just as likely to strike gold at 30 vs 20. The draft becomes ore of a crapshoot after 15 really. Look at Rasmus Sandin's draft for example:

How many players selected 15-30 would you put ahead of Rasmus? I am not sure I'd even put 1. Maybe Ty Smith? K'Andre Miller? Its really a wash.

Of course a team trading for a 1st are going to value a 1st that projects low 20's over a pick that projects high 20's. But in this case, there are other pieces in play. To me, Niemela is a very significant piece. WJC best defenseman. Have a hard time believing a contending team would be willing to part with a prospect as high as that. So if I am Nashville, I go with the package that has the highest rated prospect that's added to the first. Because most, if not all offers will include a first

 

[Faltorvo]

I just don't get why we would want to go after Ekholm. Insurance? Who's our insurance if Matthews goes down? What if Campbell gets hurt or isn't the next Binnington success story? I do appreciate the discussion on previous pages about being more concerned about the expansion draft than winning the cup, but be mindful of the expansion draft as it can raise the price beyond what's reasonable for insurance.

Say we trade Amirov, Hirvonen, and Joey Anderson for Ekholm, a pretty direct equivalent to the Muzzin trade. Kerfoot goes away somehow for a pick whatever. That's pretty good on paper, I have no problem with that sort of price. But now we have 5 defensemen we want to keep, so we're losing Justin Holl to Seattle, or we're paying the price to Francis to keep him. A defensive RHD who plays shut-down minutes and costs 2m/yr and has two years of term on his deal? We've been looking for Holl for a decade, and now we lose him.

Now we've paid Amirov, Hirvonen, Anderson, and Holl for Ekholm and dumped Kerfoot for a pick.

Zach Hyman's contract is up. We can't trade away Kerfoot any more to find extra space, so even if Hyman takes a ridiculously modest 3.5m contract (seriously, he's worth 6m) that's 1.5m that's gotta come from somewhere. Sign or trade for a goalie making 3.5m in the offseason. No space to re-sign Simmonds and we're hard up against the cap again.

We've paid Amirov, Hirvonen, Anderson, Holl, Simmonds, relying on a cheap goalie, our firstborn children in a blood pact to Hyman, for Ekholm and Kerfoot for a pick.

Next offseason Rielly and Ekholm both need raises. Campbell needs a new contract. Sandin and Liljegren both need RFA deals. Phil Kessel's 1.2m is coming off the books and that's it. So we lose one of Rielly or Ekholm.

For a playoff run and full season of Ekholm, we pay Amirov, Hirvonen, Anderson, Holl, Simmonds, need a cheap goalie, our firstborn children in a blood pact to Hyman, and have to dump Kerfoot for a pick. At the end of next offseason we have to fit in raises for Campbell, Rielly, Ekholm, Sandin, and Liljegren. Something big has to pop out. Be it Nylander, Ekholm, or something else, we lose a core piece that summer to UFA or in a trade for futures.

Ekholm is a pretty nice player, but that price tag is just stupid for "insurance". If we want to go all in and aren't too concerned about the price, pay first round picks for David Savard and Granlund. It's easy to go all in on players that won't send our cap situation to a tailspin. They leave in the summer, we give Hyman a raise, the cheap goalie is money for Rielly, and we continue to tinker around the edges with reclamation projects and injecting high talent rookies into the lineup for savings.

Horse shit

you lose Holl and get to keep Dermott,,,next season,,next play offs,,, a top 4 of Riel/Muzz/Ehholm/Brodi,,,bottom 2 and first reps

Derm/Bogo/Lilly/Sandin,,that's a solid D for another run

now it's summer of 2023 and they can pick and chose Ek or Riel and both lily/Sandin ready for full time ice

2 thick PO runs and easy ins/outs in the summer of 2023

 

[LeafGrief]

Horse shit

you lose Holl and get to keep Dermott,,,next season,,next play offs,,, a top 4 of Riel/Muzz/Ehholm/Brodi,,,bottom 2 and first reps

Derm/Bogo/Lilly/Sandin,,that's a solid D for another run

now it's summer of 2023 and they can pick and chose Ek or Riel and both lily/Sandin ready for full time ice

2 thick PO runs and easy ins/outs in the summer of 2023

Holl is a top4 defenseman making 2m/yr with term. Dermott is a promising bottom pairing defender who we hope can develop into Holl. If Holl was making 4m, keeping Dermott might be a consideration but there is absolutely no comparing their value right now. Holl is worth miles more to our cash strapped team. You going to pay all of those assets, keep the lesser valued of two defensemen, and then "pick and choose" between which top pairing defenseman you want to let walk for free. Sorry, but losing two top4 defensemen in two years is exactly the high price that I am talking about. And if Dermott is that good, why do we even need Ekholm in the first place?

Grab David Savard for a third of the price of Ekholm and then next year rent his cousin Savid Davard for the same cost. Keep Holl and Rielly and all of our prospects. The idea of wanting to upgrade Holl to Ekholm for the cost of two top 4 defenders on top of what Ekholm himself will cost is just wild.

 

[BlueForever75]

Holl isnt going anywhere, he is one contract that they bet on and hit. We have him on the cheap for a couple more seasons and you dont trade or let a dman like that be exposed when we are so top heavy with forwards and the cap.

Plain stupid to even suggest.

 

[Faltorvo]

Holl is a top4 defenseman making 2m/yr with term. Dermott is a promising bottom pairing defender who we hope can develop into Holl. If Holl was making 4m, keeping Dermott might be a consideration but there is absolutely no comparing their value right now. Holl is worth miles more to our cash strapped team. You going to pay all of those assets, keep the lesser valued of two defensemen, and then "pick and choose" between which top pairing defenseman you want to let walk for free. Sorry, but losing two top4 defensemen in two years is exactly the high price that I am talking about. And if Dermott is that good, why do we even need Ekholm in the first place?

Grab David Savard for a third of the price of Ekholm and then next year rent his cousin Savid Davard for the same cost. Keep Holl and Rielly and all of our prospects. The idea of wanting to upgrade Holl to Ekholm for the cost of two top 4 defenders on top of what Ekholm himself will cost is just wild.

I don't live in a fantasy land,,like you might be,,, Columbus is not selling they are deep into a PO slot battle ,,only 2 points back of a crap hawks team

we are losing one of Derm or Holl regardless at the exp draft

 

[BlueForever75]

I don't live in a fantasy land,,like you might be,,, Columbus is not selling they are deep into a PO slot battle ,,only 2 points back of a crap hawks team

we are losing one of Derm or Holl regardless at the exp draft

Not so fast. Deals can always happen as we saw with Vegas where teams make deals wit expansion team to prevent them from selecting a specific player. Like trading Seattle a 3rd round pick to select a player like Kerfoot instead of others like Dermott or Holl.

 

[kb]

The Leafs didn't lose to Columbus because they couldn't defend. They couldn't score

You mean their goalies won them the series and ours didn't?

 

[kb]

We don't get to see much of Kuemper out here, but advanced stats show him to be the 2nd best starting goalie in the NHl over the past 3 years - only behind (but way behind) Hellybuck:

Evolving-Hockey.com | Standard Goalie Stats

Same stats show Freddie to be one of the worst.

Kuemper also has a good cap hit for this year and next. If we can get Arizona to retain a bit to help us out, he'd be a terrific get.

He's injured now, and his history is littered with injuries.

I'm looking for someone durable if I'm spending significant assets. The 2nd best goalie is useless if he's spending a lot of time in the pressbox.

 

[Faltorvo]

Not so fast. Deals can always happen as we saw with Vegas where teams make deals wit expansion team to prevent them from selecting a specific player. Like trading Seattle a 3rd round pick to select a player like Kerfoot instead of others like Dermott or Holl.

Tell that to liefgrief

 

[LeafGrief]

I don't live in a fantasy land,,like you might be,,, Columbus is not selling they are deep into a PO slot battle ,,only 2 points back of a crap hawks team

we are losing one of Derm or Holl regardless at the exp draft

And the Predators, who Ekholm plays for last I checked, are two points back of CBJ. Interesting. Also interesting that you tell me that you plan to lose two top 4 defensemen as part of your plan and then tell me that I'm living in a fantasy land.

Interesting that you would choose to point out we're losing one of Dermott or Holl in the ED, when I pretty clearly laid out my opinion on the value of each player. Okay, it's not interesting at all, it's actually irrelevant.

I don't care if it's David Savard, Nik Hjalmarsson, Oleksiak, Edler, Hamonic, or a singing and dancing clone of Dmitri Yushkevich, the point is that a rental is a better choice than a player with term.

Not so fast. Deals can always happen as we saw with Vegas where teams make deals wit expansion team to prevent them from selecting a specific player. Like trading Seattle a 3rd round pick to select a player like Kerfoot instead of others like Dermott or Holl.

Deals can happen. But I highly doubt that Seattle would pass on a top4 defenseman making 2m/yr with term for a 3rd round pick. The more valuable the player available, the higher the cost. Minnesota had to send Alex Tuch to Vegas to keep Dumba or Scandella, the Ducks sent them Shea Theodore to protect Vatanen and Manson. I'm sure Dubas could arrange a deal where Holl and/or Dermott are protected, but the cost of that deal is part of the dominoes of an Ekholm trade.

I'm of the opinion that we just let them take Dermott and call it a day. We lose a good player, but we have replacements. More importantly, I will repeat that I think Holl's value is far beyond Dermott's at this point.

 

[LeafGrief]

Tell that to liefgrief

How on earth did you manage to misspell the "Leaf" part of my name lol

 

[HC7]

Wouldn't be pissed if Dermott was traded, but at the same time we don't have Lehtonen as an insurance policy anymore so...

 

[Griffin76]

And the Predators, who Ekholm plays for last I checked, are two points back of CBJ. Interesting. Also interesting that you tell me that you plan to lose two top 4 defensemen as part of your plan and then tell me that I'm living in a fantasy land.

Interesting that you would choose to point out we're losing one of Dermott or Holl in the ED, when I pretty clearly laid out my opinion on the value of each player. Okay, it's not interesting at all, it's actually irrelevant.

I don't care if it's David Savard, Nik Hjalmarsson, Oleksiak, Edler, Hamonic, or a singing and dancing clone of Dmitri Yushkevich, the point is that a rental is a better choice than a player with term.



Deals can happen. But I highly doubt that Seattle would pass on a top4 defenseman making 2m/yr with term for a 3rd round pick. The more valuable the player available, the higher the cost. Minnesota had to send Alex Tuch to Vegas to keep Dumba or Scandella, the Ducks sent them Shea Theodore to protect Vatanen and Manson. I'm sure Dubas could arrange a deal where Holl and/or Dermott are protected, but the cost of that deal is part of the dominoes of an Ekholm trade.

I'm of the opinion that we just let them take Dermott and call it a day. We lose a good player, but we have replacements. More importantly, I will repeat that I think Holl's value is far beyond Dermott's at this point.

I say just let them take Holl and call it a day. Dermott is younger, cheaper, has a higher ceiling, has shown he can play in the top 4. Liljegren can take his spot if Dermott is more comfortable on the left. Holl has regressed a lot in the last dozen games or so. This is the Holl we're going to see going forward. Think Zaitsev....

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I say just let them take Holl and call it a day. Dermott is younger, cheaper, has a higher ceiling, has shown he can play in the top 4. Liljegren can take his spot if Dermott is more comfortable on the left. Holl has regressed a lot in the last dozen games or so. This is the Holl we're going to see going forward. Think Zaitsev....

one of them has proven to be a top 4 defenseman, and it's not Dermott

 

[123offtheglass]

Who plays 2nd C if one of Matty/JT goes down?

Nylander; might be best to get Granlund for the top 6 wing for this reason; he can slide into a top 6 centre role as well.

 

[ACC1224]

I say just let them take Holl and call it a day. Dermott is younger, cheaper, has a higher ceiling, has shown he can play in the top 4. Liljegren can take his spot if Dermott is more comfortable on the left. Holl has regressed a lot in the last dozen games or so. This is the Holl we're going to see going forward. Think Zaitsev....

Holl was playing too high up in the lineup. I think he’s shown that he can be a very useful bottom pair player though. Dermott has far more potential but he needs to start realizing it.

 

[Griffin76]

one of them has proven to be a top 4 defenseman, and it's not Dermott

You know who else had played a little over a full season with about 60 really good games and was praised for being a top pairing guy on a great contract? Yup Zaitsev.

And Dermott has performed quite well when thrust into a top 4 situation to cover injuries.

 

[LeafGrief]

I say just let them take Holl and call it a day. Dermott is younger, cheaper, has a higher ceiling, has shown he can play in the top 4. Liljegren can take his spot if Dermott is more comfortable on the left. Holl has regressed a lot in the last dozen games or so. This is the Holl we're going to see going forward. Think Zaitsev....

Dermott is younger, worse now, cheaper for only as long as he is worse, and has not shown that he can play consistently in the top4 like Holl can. "Regressed over the last dozen games" is called a slump. And at 5on5 over the last 12 games, Holl has advanced stats metrics well into the mid 50's in every category, noticeably higher than Dermott's, while playing more minutes against much tougher competition. He hasn't really regressed at all, he's been fantastic. Dermott hasn't been on the ice for a 5on5 goal for in the last 13 games, with 9 goals against in that time frame. He'd done well in the few dozen top4 games he's played for us, but Holl has been outstanding all year and did "well" all of last year.

I love Dermott's potential, but Holl is the better player today and it's not particularly close.

The Zaitsev comparison is completely irrelevant because Justin Holl has two more years on his deal at 2m/yr per.

Holl was playing too high up in the lineup. I think he’s shown that he can be a very useful bottom pair player though. Dermott has far more potential but he needs to start realizing it.

Holl has been legitimately excellent on the second pairing all year. He is a top4 defenseman.

 

[Menzinger]

Agree with Dave Poulin on Leafs Lunch. Why would the Leafs target Mikael Granlund? A Mattias Ekholm would make a lot more sense from a Nashville point of view to help strengthen a more key position. Granlund would be like a halfway point between Kadri and Kerfoot.

Granlund is probably one of the cheaper assets on the tdl at the moment and a couple seasons ago he was putting up 1st line scoring with the Wild while also playing a strong defensive game. Imo he's the left winger the the team could use. I think he'd immediately would become the teams #6 forward.

 

[LeafGrief]

Over the past 7 games at 5 on 5, Holl has been on the ice for 5 goals for and 8 against, a goals for% of 38.5, far and away the worst of our top4 defenders. Dermott and Bogosian were on for 5 against and 0 for, but that's largely irrelevant. Over those 7 games where Holl was getting "filled in" he had 61% Corsi, 57% of the shots for, 62.5%xGF, 65% scoring chances for, and 63% high danger chances for. In all categories, he ranks second on the team behind Muzzin, who has been phenomenal with a busted face. The only reason anyone thinks Holl has regressed is because he got an on-ice sv% of 84.6, far and away the worst on the team.

Justin Holl has been playing terrific, winning hockey, and completely unable to buy a save from his goaltenders. A guy putting up 60%+ in his metrics is doing great and can play in the Leafs top4 any time.

 

[Menzinger]

Holl was playing too high up in the lineup. I think he’s shown that he can be a very useful bottom pair player though. Dermott has far more potential but he needs to start realizing it.

Personally I feel a lot safer with Holl in the top 4 than the idea of Dermott.

I like Dermott but he's not guaranteed to take that next step

 

[123offtheglass]

^ Dubas probably see's something in Granlund's game that compliments the core in a way that could help them be tougher to play against and help the PK. I believe the idea is to bring in someone more like Hyman who can be harder in the corners.

I don't know if Granlund is that guy though.

Granlund is something between a Nylander & Hyman or Kerfoot & Hyman; he's a really smart player & I do think he'd be a good fit for our top 6. Would be an add for our PK depth & PP as well; he can play anywhere but he's typically a net front guy or the bumper position.

I keep seeing 1st round picks and Amirov getting thrown into proposals for rentals. Y'all are f***ing crazy.

its so f***ing stupid lol. Even for Ekholm. There is no chance his value includes a 1st round pick AND one of our top 4 prospects. It would be one or the other. Complete stupidity IMO. I want someone to help me understand what type of leverage Nashville has to get what they are asking for? flat cap, most contending teams near the top of the cap, and any deal to acquire a player with term would also come with an added deal to potentially protect the player in expansion. This would certainly be the case for Toronto, and a lot of other teams. Therefore driving the potential suitors down, and therefore should lower his price to acquire. Not sure how Nashville figures to get top dollar here, but all the power to them. Just hope its not from us

Well he's better than Muzzin & on a better contract, that the Leafs will likely need to retain on. I'd think his return would be better. There's a big difference between Robertson/Sandin & Liljegren/Amirov; Amirov + 1st is not worth that much more than 1st + Grundstrom + Durzi; I think you're underestimating how good of an asset Grundstrom was considered in that deal... how was not considered a late 2nd round pick, where he was drafted, in terms of value; he'd be somewhere in the ballpark of a 1st & Amirov is worth at most a mid 1st round pick. Let's be realistic & not pretend Amirov is something that he isn't or that Grundstrom is some bum throw in...

Wouldn't be pissed if Dermott was traded, but at the same time we don't have Lehtonen as an insurance policy anymore so...

Think if anything we need to add some sort of depth DFD but they'd likely need to be waiver eligible. If Dermott is traded then I'd think we'd be getting some sort of upgrade at 3LD, like Oleksiak from Dallas if he were to become available. Could see a team like OTT being interested in Dermott; wouldn't affect any kind of expansion loss for them while filling a need.

 

[Menzinger]

Would assume the Sens guys likely getting the closest look

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

You know who else had played a little over a full season with about 60 really good games and was praised for being a top pairing guy on a great contract? Yup Zaitsev.

And Dermott has performed quite well when thrust into a top 4 situation to cover injuries.

Holl is much better than Zaitsev ever was and makes less than half as much, so it's a pretty lousy comparison. He's also been much better than Dermott has ever been in a top 4 role