Trades and Free Agency Thread - Push all the chips in?

[mydnyte]

we have a #1 Lw in Hyman on pace for 30G 54P and we have Gally/Sims/Kerf for 2nd line LW,,WHEN the C/RW are of JT/WN caliber,,,those 3 options are fine.

We took a HUGE hit when muzz went down in the play ins and we failed to even make the POs

Ekholm can fill ANY top 4 slot(when one gets hurt and they will) and makes our 3rd pair,,,Ekholm/Bogo ROCK solid

and the cherry ontop? Dermott is first out of the press box or 7th D dressed,,now we are talking about quality PO D depth

Ekholm is better defensively than Reilly and Muzzin ...he'd be on the 2nd pairing at worse, and Muzzin/Bogo would be the 3rd pair unless they opt for more balance

Reilly would never have to see the ice the last minute protecting a lead ever again which would be a good thing.

 

[IrishInOntario]

my goodness, i'd want to be an opposing GM with you heading the other team... highway robbery on every deal save maybe Ryan.

Kuemper is no better/worse than Anderson, and his health has been worse ...so, we add a 1st?

Kerfoot younger/cheaper/similar/better to Granlund and has reasonable term, so, lets add a 2nd!
the best part about Granlund is he is an expiring contract, but, thats reason for US to get more back, not give up more.

for goodness sakes, better off doing nothing than throwing away assets and picks

Lol Kuemper might not be worst a 1st in your mind, but to suggest that Kuemper is no better than the version of Frederick Anderson we've seen over the last two years, is laughable.

Darcy Kuemper (in friggen Arizona)

2020
GAA: 2.22
SV %: 0.928

2021
GAA: 2.41
SV %: 0.914

Freddie Anderson

2020
GAA: 2.85
SV %: 0.909

2021
GAA: 2.91
SV: 0.897

Again, you might not think Kuemper is worth a 1st, but you are absolute smoking crack if you don't think Kuemper, who has put up better numbers, on a far worse team, for less money, isn't an upgrade over the Freddie Anderson that has existed for the last two years.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I keep seeing 1st round picks and Amirov getting thrown into proposals for rentals. Y'all are f***ing crazy.

its so f***ing stupid lol. Even for Ekholm. There is no chance his value includes a 1st round pick AND one of our top 4 prospects. It would be one or the other. Complete stupidity IMO. I want someone to help me understand what type of leverage Nashville has to get what they are asking for? flat cap, most contending teams near the top of the cap, and any deal to acquire a player with term would also come with an added deal to potentially protect the player in expansion. This would certainly be the case for Toronto, and a lot of other teams. Therefore driving the potential suitors down, and therefore should lower his price to acquire. Not sure how Nashville figures to get top dollar here, but all the power to them. Just hope its not from us

 

[IrishInOntario]

you are making a mountain out of a mole hill and given our cap crunch

defense is the biggest issue along with it's depth

I'm simply comparing firepower to that of the other contenders. Plus, Toronto absolutely has the money (particularly if they move Kerfoot) to absolutely upgrade the defense / defensive depth and add a top 6 LW upgrade... It's not one or the other. Both are very doable, without breaking the bank.

Your 2021 1st round pick, one of your top 5 prospects, and a couple depth prospects and picks easily gets your there.

 

[Faltorvo]

Ekholm is better defensively than Reilly and Muzzin ...he'd be on the 2nd pairing at worse, and Muzzin/Bogo would be the 3rd pair unless they opt for more balance

Reilly would never have to see the ice the last minute protecting a lead ever again which would be a good thing.

I highly doubt they would break up Muzz/Holl with so few games before the POs after quarantine

Easy him into the system on the 3rd pair and run his arse off on the PK

Break Lilly into some high stakes games?,,, slotting beside Ekholm on 3rd pair should make that stress free

 

[Kurtz]

my goodness, i'd want to be an opposing GM with you heading the other team... highway robbery on every deal save maybe Ryan.

Kuemper is no better/worse than Anderson, and his health has been worse ...so, we add a 1st?

Kerfoot younger/cheaper/similar/better to Granlund and has reasonable term, so, lets add a 2nd!
the best part about Granlund is he is an expiring contract, but, thats reason for US to get more back, not give up more.

for goodness sakes, better off doing nothing than throwing away assets and picks

We don't get to see much of Kuemper out here, but advanced stats show him to be the 2nd best starting goalie in the NHl over the past 3 years - only behind (but way behind) Hellybuck:

Evolving-Hockey.com | Standard Goalie Stats

Same stats show Freddie to be one of the worst.

Kuemper also has a good cap hit for this year and next. If we can get Arizona to retain a bit to help us out, he'd be a terrific get.

 

[mydnyte]

Lol Kuemper might not be worst a 1st in your mind, but to suggest that Kuemper is no better than the version of Frederick Anderson we've seen over the last two years, is laughable.

Darcy Kuemper (in friggen Arizona)

2020
GAA: 2.22
SV %: 0.928

2021
GAA: 2.41
SV %: 0.914

Freddie Anderson

2020
GAA: 2.85
SV %: 0.909

2021
GAA: 2.91
SV: 0.897

Again, you might not think Kuemper is worth a 1st, but you are absolute smoking crack if you don't think Kuemper, who has put up better numbers, on a far worse team, for less money, isn't an upgrade over the Freddie Anderson that has existed for the last two years.

you do realize that Arizona play for a team that plays s a solid defense first game, not shootout hockey that leave the goalie hung out on their own on a regular basis like the Leafs traditionally have.

Anderson is a heck of a lot more proven than Kuemper, and i like Kuemper and thought he would be a good replacement for Anderson, but, certainly not worth more than Anderson (save the extra year, and thats not worth a 1st or anything or 'real' value)
Freddy is 7 months older and has 160 more games played, and they have near identical gaa and save% that alone should tell you something. do you think Kuemper has the same numbers behind the sieve thast has been the Leafs defense the past 5 years

NHL Totals:
GP 392 2.64 226 100 47 0.915
GP 233 2.46 103 79 31 0.918

 

[SprDaVE]

It's obvious that they want to play Hyman on thr 3rd line, where he can drive play. If they were committed to him as a top 6 left wing, you'd have a great argument, but they move him up and down the lineup. I want somebody that can play big minutes, every night on that line.

I'm not ignoring anything relative to center / right wing. I'm fully aware that Mathews / Marner is elite and Tavares / Nylander is pretty outstanding as well. Doesn't change the fact, that LW could be upgraded, the players on the market to do so are available and Toronto has plenty enough assets to make a move for one of them, without gutting the cupboard at all.

My take isn't close to ridiculous. You might not like it, but LW is a concern on this team. Not the only concern, but a realistic one.

This is a good take and I agree. The Leafs really need a LW upgrade and they've needed one all season. Thornton just doesn't have the legs to play those minutes and Galchenyuk seems ok right now but who knows long-term.

Getting an established producer to play with Matthews and Marner is 100% needed.

 

[IrishInOntario]

its so f***ing stupid lol. Even for Ekholm. There is no chance his value includes a 1st round pick AND one of our top 4 prospects. It would be one or the other. Complete stupidity IMO. I want someone to help me understand what type of leverage Nashville has to get what they are asking for? flat cap, most contending teams near the top of the cap, and any deal to acquire a player with term would also come with an added deal to potentially protect the player in expansion. This would certainly be the case for Toronto, and a lot of other teams. Therefore driving the potential suitors down, and therefore should lower his price to acquire. Not sure how Nashville figures to get top dollar here, but all the power to them. Just hope its not from us

Retention for this year and next, plus a bidding war between contenders, is what drives Ekholm's value slightly above Muzzin's, which was essentially a better 1st round pick than what Toronto will have this year, and TWO 2nd round picks (Durzi and Grundstrom)... I don't blame Poile for asking a little bit more.

Regardless, I'm not moving a 1st and Amirov for Ekholm, unless the 2nd prospect is a guy outside of the top 10 in the prospect pool.

I'm still being trying to sell them on this deal.

To Nashville
2021 1st round pick
Ronnie Hirvonen or Philip Hallander
Topi Niemela

To Toronto
Mattias Ekholm (retained)

I'd be pushing them towards viewing Niemela's WJHC performance as an indicator that he was deeply undervalued as a 3rd round pick and should have been taken much higher, therefore, acting as the "high end" prospect in this deal.

 

[SprDaVE]

We don't get to see much of Kuemper out here, but advanced stats show him to be the 2nd best starting goalie in the NHl over the past 3 years - only behind Hellybuck:

Evolving-Hockey.com | Standard Goalie Stats

Same stats show Freddie to be one of the worst.

Kuemper also has a good cap hit for this year and next. If we can get Arizona to retain a bit to help us out, he'd be a terrific get.

You're never going to get the cash strapped Coyotes to retain on a great asset like Kuemper unless you want to completely overpay.

 

[Kurtz]

You're never going to get the cash strapped Coyotes to retain on a great asset like Kuemper unless you want to completely overpay.

Or we can launder him through Chicago or another non-contender for a pick. Regardless, even at full $4.5m he's great value.

 

[Faltorvo]

I'm simply comparing firepower to that of the other contenders. Plus, Toronto absolutely has the money (particularly if they move Kerfoot) to absolutely upgrade the defense / defensive depth and add a top 6 LW upgrade... It's not one or the other. Both are very doable, without breaking the bank.

Your 2021 1st round pick, one of your top 5 prospects, and a couple depth prospects and picks easily gets your there.

Fire power?????we are #3 in the league for goals scored

you are casually taking a guy (Hyman) who is on pace for 30 goals and 54 points and casually condemning him to the 3rd effn line? to then worry about fire power?

 

[mydnyte]

We don't get to see much of Kuemper out here, but advanced stats show him to be the 2nd best starting goalie in the NHl over the past 3 years - only behind (but way behind) Hellybuck:

Evolving-Hockey.com | Standard Goalie Stats

Same stats show Freddie to be one of the worst.

Kuemper also has a good cap hit for this year and next. If we can get Arizona to retain a bit to help us out, he'd be a terrific get.

I've been all for getting Kuemper, and think he would be solid, but, he is not really better than Anderson.
what stats cant show you is a defensemen passing to a wide open opponent in the slot for a clear shot on a nightly basis, or failing to clear the zone and turning the puck over in high danger spots a dozen times a game...
Freddy has been the main reason we looked like a contender more often than not, but, he has been 'average' lately. and i wouldnt resign him for more $$ is we can replace him with someone reliable and cheaper.

Kuemper has only played more than 30 games 2 times in his career!!
Anderson only less than 30 in his rookie season. (28 games)

 

[Faltorvo]

you do realize that Arizona play for a team that plays s a solid defense first game, not shootout hockey that leave the goalie hung out on their own on a regular basis like the Leafs traditionally have.

Anderson is a heck of a lot more proven than Kuemper, and i like Kuemper and thought he would be a good replacement for Anderson, but, certainly not worth more than Anderson (save the extra year, and thats not worth a 1st or anything or 'real' value)
Freddy is 7 months older and has 160 more games played, and they have near identical gaa and save% that alone should tell you something. do you think Kuemper has the same numbers behind the sieve thast has been the Leafs defense the past 5 years

NHL Totals:
GP 392 2.64 226 100 47 0.915
GP 233 2.46 103 79 31 0.918

Here's the thing,,are we talking now or was

Fred was DK 2 years ago ,he ain't that now or might never be again WITH a better team in front of him

Fred from 2 years ago AKA DK on this team? i smell $$$$$$$$$$$

 

[IrishInOntario]

you do realize that Arizona play for a team that plays s a solid defense first game, not shootout hockey that leave the goalie hung out on their own on a regular basis like the Leafs traditionally have.

Anderson is a heck of a lot more proven than Kuemper, and i like Kuemper and thought he would be a good replacement for Anderson, but, certainly not worth more than Anderson (save the extra year, and thats not worth a 1st or anything or 'real' value)
Freddy is 7 months older and has 160 more games played, and they have near identical gaa and save% that alone should tell you something. do you think Kuemper has the same numbers behind the sieve thast has been the Leafs defense the past 5 years

NHL Totals:
GP 392 2.64 226 100 47 0.915
GP 233 2.46 103 79 31 0.918

I'm not worried about the last 5 years. 5 years ago Carrie Price was the best goalie in the world, today he might not be the best goalie on his own team, despite his albatross of a contract. I'm worried about what a guy has done in the NHL lately. 5 years is half a damn career for a lot of guys. Wayyyyy too big of a sample.

5 years ago Rickard Rakell was untouchable.

5 years ago people were arguing Jack Eichel was better than Auston Matthews.

5 years ago Mikael Granlund was tearing it up in Minnesota.

5 years ago Wayne Simmonds was a bonafide stud, top 6 guy, getting paid like it.

I can keep going, but I think you get the point.

Who is a guy RIGHT NOW? That's The only thing relavent to this discussion. Frederik Anderson hasn't been the guy fans fondly remember him as, in 2+ years. Kuemper has better numbers than Anderson in RECENT history, on one of the worst possession teams in the NHL.

For the record, to drive the point home...

Toronto is 23rd in the league (9th best) in shots surrendered per game at 28.4.

Arizona is 7th in the league (23rd best) in shots surrendered per game at 31.6.

For the record, Toronto surrendered fewer shots per game than did Arizona as well last year.

 

[TML1967]

If you get Ekholm, you still have to pay him and his ask is going to be close to 6 mill with term himself (look at what Muzzin received, and he probably took a bit less to stay with the Leafs). Maybe less term than Rielly, but he is also 4 years older.

You would also have no offensively capable defensemen on your defense. At best you can hope Sandin and Liljegren get there eventually, but that won't be for at least a couple of seasons barring a miraculous leap.

6 mill would be a steal for Rielly. The concern should be if he asks for over 7 mill, like a Jared Spurgeon deal. That may get a bit dicey. If he is asking for a Krug or Faulk deal, however, you sign him up right away. 6.5 x 7 is a solid deal for him. That puts him in the 20's in terms of salary for defensemen right now, which is appropriate for him. Dougie Hamilton's new deal would also be a good marker.

If I need to choose between Ekholm at Muzzin #s (he is about the same using advanced stats, but has scored a bit more, but we are in a flat cap pandemic cash mode where I think a few UFAs will get limited cap) or Reilly at Krugs number (Krug was a year older, and both are not great defensively), I take Ekholm every day of the week.

Ekholm is immensely better defensively, and relies less on being an elite skater. Im always tentative at signing guys long term that need their speed to be effective.

I also think you can trade Reilly for an equivalent package to what you pay for Ekholm because some GM will talk themselves into getting a PP QB who is under 30 and had good offensive seasons.

 

[mydnyte]

I'm not worried about the last 5 years. 5 years ago Carrie Price was the best goalie in the world, today he might not be the best goalie on his own team, despite his albatross of a contract. I'm worried about what a guy has done in the NHL lately. 5 years is half a damn career for a lot of guys. Wayyyyy too big of a sample.

5 years ago Rickard Rakell was untouchable.

5 years ago people were arguing Jack Eichel was better than Auston Matthews.

5 years ago Mikael Granlund was tearing it up in Minnesota.

5 years ago Wayne Simmonds was a bonafide stud, top 6 guy, getting paid like it.

I can keep going, but I think you get the point.

Who is a guy RIGHT NOW? That's The only thing relavent to this discussion. Frederik Anderson hasn't been the guy fans fondly remember him as, in 2+ years. Kuemper has better numbers than Anderson in RECENT history, on one of the worst possession teams in the NHL.

For the record, to drive the point home...

Toronto is 23rd in the league (9th best) in shots surrendered per game at 28.4.

Arizona is 7th in the league (23rd best) in shots surrendered per game at 31.6.

For the record, Toronto surrendered fewer shots per game than did Arizona as well last year.

as of Today Kuemper is Not proven to be able to handle a full seasons load of games.
he will need to start a bare minimum of 50 games and has only done that ONE time in his entire career.

since you want recent, last year 29 games!
this year only 18 games, and currently injured.
Anderson has played hurt much of the season, and had similar injuries last year as well, but still managed
52 last year, and 23 this year.
maybe he should have been shut down earlier or longer last year, but, he wasnt.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Fire power?????we are #3 in the league for goals scored

you are casually taking a guy (Hyman) who is on pace for 30 goals and 54 points and casually condemning him to the 3rd effn line? to then worry about fire power?

I'm not casually doing anything. Sheldon has flat out said that he likes Hyman on the third line, in a two way role. I love Hyman's game. I've got no issue with him at all, but adding a top 6 capable winger (which they lost when they had to trade Johnsson and Kapanen) gives this team much more flexibility and allows Keefe to play Hyman in a line driving two way role, on the 3rd line, something he's extremely capable of.

Again, you can add top 6 scoring deoth at the deadline AND upgrade the defense, without breaking the bank. It's not one or the other. You can do both... Hell, if you put Anderson on LTIR, you might be able to trade for an Ekholm type, add a capable top 6 winger and a goalie like Ullmark, without breaking the bank.

You wouldn't trade a 2021 1st round, a 2022 2nd or 3rd round pick, and a couple prospects to do that? I certainly would... I'm doing my best to avoid moving Robertson, Sandin and Liljegren, and I'm only moving Niemela or Amirov for the right player (an Ekholm type), but guys like Barabanov, Anderson, Hallander, Hirvonen, SDA, Hollowell, Kokkonen, Kral and Abramov are replaceable in your prospect pool. If I have to move a couple of them, or picks that would likely net you players of their ilk, in a year when a Canadian team is guaranteed to be in the Final 4, count me in every single time.

Tampa was loaded up front last year and still added forward depth at the deadline, just for overkill. You can never have too many guys that are bonafide point producers. If they add another dimension as well (such as penalty killing), that's even better.

 

[IrishInOntario]

as of Today Kuemper is Not proven to be able to handle a full seasons load of games.
he will need to start a bare minimum of 50 games and has only done that ONE time in his entire career.

since you want recent, last year 29 games!
this year only 18 games, and currently injured.
Anderson has played hurt much of the season, and had similar injuries last year as well, but still managed
52 last year, and 23 this year.
maybe he should have been shut down earlier or longer last year, but, he wasnt.

I'm not asking him to carry to load. I'm suggesting that Kuemper projects to be an ideal 1A / 1B goalie in a rotation with Jack Campbell, with them each playing around 35-38 games if healthy and the 3rd guy sneaking into a few games (predictably) as well, in a full season... I think both guys are more effective when they're not being worn out by starting 60 times in a regular season... And, as I've said previously, I like the 500k cap savings in Kuemper, who has significantly better numbers than Anderson over the past 2 seasons.

 

[Fogelhund]

as of Today Kuemper is Not proven to be able to handle a full seasons load of games.
he will need to start a bare minimum of 50 games and has only done that ONE time in his entire career.

since you want recent, last year 29 games!
this year only 18 games, and currently injured.
Anderson has played hurt much of the season, and had similar injuries last year as well, but still managed
52 last year, and 23 this year.
maybe he should have been shut down earlier or longer last year, but, he wasnt.

The argument FOR Keumper, is that you can split games with him and Campbell, reducing the load, and injuries... hopefully.

If not, try for Ullmark.

 

[Twine Tickler]

To Nashville
2021 1st round pick
Ronnie Hirvonen or Philip Hallander
Topi Niemela

To Toronto
Mattias Ekholm (retained)

This deal at least makes more sense. I agree with Niemela being the "top prospect" we'd be willing to move. All indications are he will be a good player, and I will be sad to see him go. Unfortunately he likely will not be ready to compete in the NHL in the next 3 seasons, which is what I deem to be our window. Certainly not as likely as the big 4 prospects. If there is a prospect to move on from it would be him. I still think your valuation is a bit steep, but that is certainly the deal that makes the most sense from what I have seen on this board. We'd 100% lose long term, but if Ekholm was the piece that put us over the edge to win it all, it would be a win all around.

 

[IrishInOntario]

The argument FOR Keumper, is that you can split games with him and Campbell, reducing the load, and injuries... hopefully.

If not, try for Ullmark.

Bingo!

I'm not married to the idea of Kuemper for the record. My only asks of the guy Toronto gets for this year and next (in a split with Campbell) are the following...

1). Capable of posting a .915 or better, having done it RECENTLY.

2). Cheaper than Anderson's 5.0 million to help offset some of Hyman's raise.

 

[mydnyte]

The argument FOR Keumper, is that you can split games with him and Campbell, reducing the load, and injuries... hopefully.

If not, try for Ullmark.

you dont pay a guy 4.5 to 'split' games. thats starter $$

i think Ullmark could be great in a split role

 

[IrishInOntario]

This deal at least makes more sense. I agree with Niemela being the "top prospect" we'd be willing to move. All indications are he will be a good player, and I will be sad to see him go. Unfortunately he likely will not be ready to compete in the NHL in the next 3 seasons, which is what I deem to be our window. Certainly not as likely as the big 4 prospects. If there is a prospect to move on from it would be him. I still think your valuation is a bit steep, but that is certainly the deal that makes the most sense from what I have seen on this board. We'd 100% lose long term, but if Ekholm was the piece that put us over the edge to win it all, it would be a win all around.

I think that's about the right price for Ekholm, however, there might be a couple organizations (right, or wrong) that would be willing to swoop in and pay a little bit more, especially if Nashville will retain...

What hurts Toronto is that they project to have such a low 1st round pick. If that pick was projected closer to #20 than #30, it would probably help their cause, but I think they'll have to pay slightly higher on the prospect end of things (or be willing to add a 2nd pick) than a team like Montreal as an example, whose 1st round pick, right now, projects to be better.

I think I might go as high as the following for maximum retention on Ekholm, through next year.

2021 1st round pick
2022 3rd-4th round pick
Topi Niemela
Ronnie Hivonen / Filip Hallander

The way I see it, if I can bridge the gap with a quality pick outside of the first 2 rounds, and get away with Niemela instead of Amirov, I highly consider it.

 

[Fogelhund]

you dont pay a guy 4.5 to 'split' games. thats starter $$

i think Ullmark could be great in a split role

Ullmark would be my first choice. Buffalo likely wants to keep him, and build around him... he's very good. But, he's a UFA, and I can't see why anyone would choose to go to/stay in Buffalo right now. If he'd prefer to move on, they should be looking at moving him.