Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[Sypher04]

If we're talking purely goals - Bjorkstrand scores at a 27 goal/82 game pace over the last 4 seasons, Nylander scores at a 35 goal/82 game pace - a difference of 8 goals per season or 23% less. 5.4M is 43% less than 9.5M. Again: better value per dollar, significantly better - and this is looking strictly at goal scoring which is Nylander's strong suit when Bjorkstrand is the better defensive player. On top of all that - Bjorkstrand's contract expires just as he enters his 30s so you aren't locked in to a significant decline. Nylander's most likely getting an 8 year deal where he will decline from day 1.

I picked 4 seasons to exlcude Nylander's terrible season but to also give a large enough sample.

Talking purely goals is nonsense though and the only reason one would do so would be to make the players appear closer than they actually are.

Nylander is a dual threat goalscorer and playmaker. Probably the best blend we have on the team, where Marner is clear more pass first and Matthews is more shoot first.

When bringing points back into the equation things slant very very heavily toward Nylander. I also wouldn’t say Bjorkstand is particularly great defensively.

Nylander had more assists alone than Bjorkstrand had total points last season, plus scored 40 goals too

 

[LeafChief]

Three pages of trash Nylander trade suggestions followed by being angry because people don't like the trash trade suggestions.

The season can't come soon enough.

 

[Americanadian]

I think you're leaning into some of these age curve issues too much as absolutes rather than what ifs. Nylander just had his birthday a couple months ago - it really wouldn't/shouldn't surprise anyone if he maintained relatively consistent production over the next 5-6 seasons. It may not be quite 40 goals, but likely in the high 70s points along with 35+ goals.

And as mentioned with the Jarnkrok example earlier in the thread, one can fall into a trap with these 2nd tier middle six guys strictly looking at only a few stats especially when trying to judge value against stars. Like Jarnkrok potted 16 even strength goals plus good defensive numbers all for a budget contract of 2.1 mil. Yet I think youd be hard pressed to argue that Jarnkrok has even half the value of Nylander in terms of on ice value, either through a deeper statistics overview or even an old fashioned eyetest.

Edit: and the salary cap when Nylander is hitting that 32-34 range is going to be dramatically higher than it is at present.

I think it's absolutely realistic that Nyander scores 30-35 goals and 70+ points for the next 4 seasons. How much is that worth?

I don't think anyone would argue Jarnkrok is half as valuable as Nylander but given his contract (2.1M) and Nylander's current deal (6.9M) he only has to be 30% as valuable. I'd still argue he isn't 30% as valuable as Nylander. If Nylander makes 9.5-10M, Jarnkrok's 2.1M would have to be ~22% as valuable as Nylander which I'd say he is.

Three pages of trash Nylander trade suggestions followed by being angry because people don't like the trash trade suggestions.

The season can't come soon enough.

Do you expect the discourse on a trade board to change over the course of a season? What constitutes angry? I assume I am the person you are talking about because I have been responding to people throughout the last 3 pages but I don't understand why I can't have a conversation regarding player values when people keep the conversation going.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Do you expect the discourse on a trade board to change over the course of a season?

not me, at this point I expect to continue seeing you propose a good asset for Conor Garland until the end of time

 

[Budz]

I’m pragmatic when it comes to keeping or moving Nylander, but I’m generally not in favour of replacing him with inferior, cheaper guys at similar position to satisfy some notion of addition more depth (and mediocrity) in a direct trade.

For me, I would look for either a pure futures package so we can replenish the prospect pipeline with cheap talent and re-spend his cap, 1-2 double dip.

Or we trade him for a big strength elsewhere like defense which shifts cap and strengths to another position, and we go out and just get a replacement on the wing some other way that isn’t tied to the trade.

I still believe the best path for a deal is:

At the deadline - Willy to a Western Conference playoff team for a heavy futures package (as a contender that team won’t part with top end talent that hurts their chances).

Use that futures package to go shopping for a Top D man.

 

[jaric1862]

We are so tight to the cap that we'd have to waive Timmins and Lafferty just to have an 21-man roster.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Bjork at 5.4M will be better value than Nylander at 10M and Bjork's contract will expire at 31, not 36 like a Nylander deal would. Contracts matter in this league. You're also using Nylander's career year to define the player. It is far more likely that he never scores 40 goals again than he does.

Your Nylanderphobia is showing again.

 

[kb]

Your Nylanderphobia is showing again.

Naw, that's just his inability to know or understand hockey at any level. He uses WAR!! LOL

 

[notDatsyuk]

I like the idea of having more "weapons" - The flaw with having like 40M across the big 4 is it eats up such a chunk of the cap structure and if one were to go down, a big chunk of $ money is unavailable to you, such as when JT went down versus Montreal.

Nylander is certainly elite but I don't know if I can get my head around 9-10M on a guy on the 2nd line especially with JT pulling 11M too.

Quite agree, but if you have to drop one or the other of Willy at 9.5 or JT at 11, which would it be?

 

[Fogelhund]

Quite agree, but if you have to drop one or the other of Willy at 9.5 or JT at 11, which would it be?

That really depends on returns and how we replace what they do. It might be harder to find an adequate 2C, than winger… That being said, opening up $11mil would be the preferable cap hit and I do think Willy is the better player for now and the future. Also JT is two years at $11mil and then likely $5 ish from there.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Quite agree, but if you have to drop one or the other of Willy at 9.5 or JT at 11, which would it be?

That really depends on returns and how we replace what they do. It might be harder to find an adequate 2C, than winger… That being said, opening up $11mil would be the preferable cap hit and I do think Willy is the better player for now and the future. Also JT is two years at $11mil and then likely $5 ish from there.

Age curve also points to keeping Nylander as the smarter move.

 

[Fogelhund]

All academic, as there is zero chance Tavares would waive his NMC though, but we’ve been over that many times.

 

[notdoneyet]

Quite agree, but if you have to drop one or the other of Willy at 9.5 or JT at 11, which would it be?

It’s a no brainer that you keep Willy but if it comes down to between these two we have no options other than Willy has to go

 

[notDatsyuk]

It’s a no brainer that you keep Willy but if it comes down to between these two we have no options other than Willy has to go

True, but only because of Dubas' terrible full NMC.

 

[WTFMAN99]

All academic, as there is zero chance Tavares would waive his NMC though, but we’ve been over that many times.

Yes - almost certainly not gonna happen.

The best they could do is try to ride it out and let JT walk at the end or retain him for a much cheaper price.

Maybe long term he's a decent 2nd line LW...I just don't know if I would want to keep him...defensively not so great and not fast...and doesn't push back at all.

 

[notdoneyet]

True, but only because of Dubas' terrible full NMC.

Of course wtf was Dubas thinking giving everyone a NMC
Poor Willy gets a 10 team clause

 

[TMLAM34]

Once JT’s contract expires, I wouldn’t mind keeping him at a MUCH lower cap hit along with a lessened role (third line winger and PP specialist). But he’s still got two more years left, let’s see what happens first.

 

[hamzarocks]

Tavares wont be taking much of a discount on his next deal

He will get 6M-8M depending on his play at 3 years term as this is what Stamkos likely comes in at

Tavares comparables,

Giroux, Stamkos, Malkin, Kopitar, on their old but still good player deals will make between 6ish - 8ish M

Tavares hopefully comes at lower pt around 6M so we get 5M back

He is still to productive and has the brand name value to come on a 3-4M like a RoR

 

[Fogelhund]

Tavares wont be taking much of a discount on his next deal

He will get 6M-8M depending on his play at 3 years term as this is what Stamkos likely comes in at

Tavares comparables,

Giroux, Stamkos, Malkin, Kopitar, on their old but still good player deals will make between 6ish - 8ish M

Tavares hopefully comes at lower pt around 6M so we get 5M back

He is still to productive and has the brand name value to come on a 3-4M like a RoR

Hard to say... he'll be 34, and turns 35 before the start of the season of his next contract. He will have made more than $100 million in earnings by that point. He's never won a cup... at least so far, so his motivation might be a little different. I guess we shall see where things go the next two years.

 

[hamzarocks]

Hard to say... he'll be 34, and turns 35 before the start of the season of his next contract. He will have made more than $100 million in earnings by that point. He's never won a cup... at least so far, so his motivation might be a little different. I guess we shall see where things go the next two years.

Hopefully he likes being a leaf a lot and goes down to 3-4M

He doesnt have a long history with us so tough to say if he feels a sense of loyalty to the leafs or if he chases money/better shot at a cup.

Ideally hes a winger on his next contract and we find a 2C or somehow Minten/hirvonen/Cowan turn out far better than expected

 

[Fogelhund]

Hopefully he likes being a leaf a lot and goes down to 3-4M

He doesnt have a long history with us so tough to say if he feels a sense of loyalty to the leafs or if he chases money/better shot at a cup.

Ideally hes a winger on his next contract and we find a 2C or somehow Minten/hirvonen/Cowan turn out far better than expected

His wife is from the area, works in the medical field in the area. They have kids, and both grandparents are in the area.

I don't think it's about loyalty to the team, as much as keeping his wife happy, and them being from the area.

 

[WTFMAN99]

His wife is from the area, works in the medical field in the area. They have kids, and both grandparents are in the area.

I don't think it's about loyalty to the team, as much as keeping his wife happy, and them being from the area.

Hopefully he likes being a leaf a lot and goes down to 3-4M

He doesnt have a long history with us so tough to say if he feels a sense of loyalty to the leafs or if he chases money/better shot at a cup.

Ideally hes a winger on his next contract and we find a 2C or somehow Minten/hirvonen/Cowan turn out far better than expected

It's a lot easier to play hard ball with him when we haven't won and his age.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

I still believe the best path for a deal is:

At the deadline - Willy to a Western Conference playoff team for a heavy futures package (as a contender that team won’t part with top end talent that hurts their chances).

Use that futures package to go shopping for a Top D man.

To be honest how much really are we going to get for him at the deadline?Not to mention for any kind of return he’ll have to agree to sign longterm with the team traded too. Not an easy thing to do.

 

[LeafEgo]

Tavares wont be taking much of a discount on his next deal

He will get 6M-8M depending on his play at 3 years term as this is what Stamkos likely comes in at

Tavares comparables,

Giroux, Stamkos, Malkin, Kopitar, on their old but still good player deals will make between 6ish - 8ish M

Tavares hopefully comes at lower pt around 6M so we get 5M back

He is still to productive and has the brand name value to come on a 3-4M like a RoR

It won't be all about JT though. I'll applaud him anyways if we see a big discount, but it will largely be about the fact that he just won't be worth that much to the Leafs - not as much as he might be to another team.

Those comparables might have been worth those amounts to the teams that paid them, but if he's worth 5M or less to the Leafs specifically, that's what they will offer. If he's not interested in shopping around, that will force a 'discount.'

 

[Budz]

To be honest how much really are we going to get for him at the deadline?Not to mention for any kind of return he’ll have to agree to sign longterm with the team traded too. Not an easy thing to do.

Look at ROR’s return and add to that. A lot.