Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[WTFMAN99]

Would people get behind :

Lindholm (retained) + Zadorov
For
Nylander + Timmins + B level prospect

Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-Liljgren
Zadorov-Klingberg
Giordano

Anyone would do that but it would require Nylander being willing to extend just for it to get off the ground.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I woulda loved Hayton + Chychrun for Nylander +

Hayton + Simashev + Buts for Nylander + Liljegren + 1st maybe?

Simashev is 6'7" and Buts is 6'8" and both are very highly rated prospects.

 

[kb]

I like the idea of having more "weapons" - The flaw with having like 40M across the big 4 is it eats up such a chunk of the cap structure and if one were to go down, a big chunk of $ money is unavailable to you, such as when JT went down versus Montreal.

Nylander is certainly elite but I don't know if I can get my head around 9-10M on a guy on the 2nd line especially with JT pulling 11M too.

Yep, give me 2 jack knifes instead of an AK47.

 

[tony135420]

I like the idea of having more "weapons" - The flaw with having like 40M across the big 4 is it eats up such a chunk of the cap structure and if one were to go down, a big chunk of $ money is unavailable to you, such as when JT went down versus Montreal.

Nylander is certainly elite but I don't know if I can get my head around 9-10M on a guy on the 2nd line especially with JT pulling 11M too.

I get you, however, this is only a real issue for next season. Beyond that, we're in much better position cap-wise than the doomsday crowd is making us out to be.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I get you, however, this is only a real issue for next season. Beyond that, we're in much better position cap-wise than the doomsday crowd is making us out to be.

I've got my eye on Stephenson in the off-season for 2C, move JT to the wing.

Maybe 4-5 years around 5.5M, not far off Trochek. Vegas is good at centre with Eichel-Karlsson-Roy-Howden.

Look at rounding out the rest of the roster perhaps but Nylander at 9M or more could make it tough to round out a roster.

 

[Americanadian]

After listening to the Sandin interview on the latets 32 thoughts I wonder if there's a long-term fit for Nylander in Washington. Backstrom has also shown chemistry with Nylander in past world championships. A deal would have to involve salary coming back and/or a 3rd party to retain on Nylander.

Something like:

To WSH: Nylander (extension in place)
To TOR: Iorio, Murphy
To CHI: Mantha, WSH 24 1st, COL 2nd

The idea here is Toronto gets Iorio+1st for extended Nylander (exact framework of the Fiala deal), they flip that 1st to Chicago for Murphy and Washington pays a 2nd for dumping Mantha.

 

[WTFMAN99]

After listening to the Sandin interview on the latets 32 thoughts I wonder if there's a long-term fit for Nylander in Washington. Backstrom has also shown chemistry with Nylander in past world championships. A deal would have to involve salary coming back and/or a 3rd party to retain on Nylander.

Something like:

To WSH: Nylander (extension in place)
To TOR: Iorio, Murphy
To CHI: Mantha, WSH 24 1st, COL 2nd

The idea here is Toronto gets Iorio+1st for extended Nylander (exact framework of the Fiala deal), they flip that 1st to Chicago for Murphy and Washington pays a 2nd for dumping Mantha.

Doesn't seem like nearly enough.

 

[Americanadian]

Yep, give me 2 jack knifes instead of a AK47.

So Bertuzzi and Bjorkstrand are jack knives in comparison to Nylander the AK47? The guy with a career high of 40 goals vs 2 wingers with career highs of 30 and 28 goals.

Doesn't seem like nearly enough.

Quite literally what Fiala returned except I flipped the 1st for Murphy.

 

[Kiwi]

When you say the Leafs find Buntings every year (top line wingers making <1M) - which non-Bunting players are you referring to? When you say the Leafs find Brodie's every year (top pair D) - which non-Brodie player are you referring to? Also - when is the last time the Leafs entered an off-season with this many impactful pending UFAs? All of Brodie/Bertuzzi/Nylander/Samsonov are impactful players for this team. The only player of those 3 I can see taking a deal that can benefit the Leafs is Bertuzzi.

They signed both Bunting and Brodie, then signed Bertuzzi and Domi this offseason

We have Woll behind Samsonov, there's a reason we didn't sign him to term and we can resign Nylander still

Jesus, this is a good situation
At least we can move the contracts we have if we want to

 

[Americanadian]

They signed both Bunting and Brodie, then signed Bertuzzi and Domi this offseason

We have Woll behind Samsonov, there's a reason we didn't sign him to term and we can resign Nylander still

Jesus, this is a good situation
At least we can move the contracts we have if we want to

You made it seem as if the team were consistently bringing in Bunting and Brodie players (top of the lineup players on team friendly deals). I don't disagree that Bertuzzi is a good deal but it's only one year. I don't think the Domi deal was a good signing.

If you think that Woll is the started of the future I agree with you but it's not a certainty. Again - my entire proposal was centered around getting players on good contracts with term. The downfall of having players on expiring contracts is you need to re-up them at market value and that has a higher probability of negative risk.

 

[WTFMAN99]

So Bertuzzi and Bjorkstrand are jack knives in comparison to Nylander the AK47? The guy with a career high of 40 goals vs 2 wingers with career highs of 30 and 28 goals.


Quite literally what Fiala returned except I flipped the 1st for Murphy.

I'd say Murphy's value is somewhere around a 2nd, maybe a 4th on top or something

Iorio = Faber...okay I follow you on that.

So the return is somewhat similar, I would think Nylander is worth more but was Fiala pending RFA vs UFA? Or was extension apart of the deal? Memory is a bit hazy.

 

[Americanadian]

I'd say Murphy's value is somewhere around a 2nd, maybe a 4th on top or something

Iorio = Faber...okay I follow you on that.

So the return is somewhat similar, I would think Nylander is worth more but was Fiala pending RFA vs UFA? Or was extension apart of the deal? Memory is a bit hazy.

Fiala was signed the day he was traded. Murphy is a 19 minute/night RHD signed for 3 years at 4.4M. He is 30 which is a downside and he played on the worst team in the league but he was top 30 among defenders in ES defensive impacts according to EvolvingHockey. He is in the same mold of Lyubushkin and Schenn (but better) who have worked with Rielly the past two seasons.

 

[kb]

So Bertuzzi and Bjorkstrand are jack knives in comparison to Nylander the AK47? The guy with a career high of 40 goals vs 2 wingers with career highs of 30 and 28 goals.

So we are only comparing career highs now? The only measure needed?

Plus, put the goalposts in one place and leave them there please. Bertuzzi replaces Bunting's spot and production, or are we just going to ignore that fact in your hypothetical scemario?

Bertuzzi and Bjorkstrand combined for 28 goals and 75 points last season at a combined hit of $10.15 million. Nylander had 40 goals and 87 points for under $7 million. Nylander and Bunting combined for 63 goals and 136 points last season for under $8 million.

You can keep your jack knives.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Fiala was signed the day he was traded. Murphy is a 19 minute/night RHD signed for 3 years at 4.4M. He is 30 which is a downside and he played on the worst team in the league but he was top 30 among defenders in ES defensive impacts according to EvolvingHockey. He is in the same mold of Lyubushkin and Schenn (but better) who have worked with Rielly the past two seasons.

Murphy is "good" - doesn't bring the toughness unfortunately but can make the odd big hit.

 

[Fogelhund]

So Bertuzzi and Bjorkstrand are jack knives in comparison to Nylander the AK47? The guy with a career high of 40 goals vs 2 wingers with career highs of 30 and 28 goals.

A full page back, you berated me for using career highs, and then here we are....

 

[kb]

A full page back, you berated me for using career highs, and then here we are....

That was the exact moment this moving target discussion crossed over into pure clown territory.

Uses the exact same argument. LOL

Not worth my typing fingers to respond to someone fighting to protect their ego, and not their point of view. Most good teams are looking to improve, which clearly was never the object of the trades

 

[Americanadian]

A full page back, you berated me for using career highs, and then here we are....

That's on me for bringing that up but I also think Nylander's value is inflated by one 40 goal season. I also understand that Bertuzzi should be viewed in the same lens - not so much Bjorkstrand whose production has been consistent for the 3 seasons prior to last. Again - I bring up career highs because I think that's where Nylander gets an inflated value from on these boards.

So we are only comparing career highs now? The only measure needed?

Plus, put the goalposts in one place and leave them there please. Bertuzzi replaces Bunting's spot and production, or are we just going to ignore that fact in your hypothetical scemario?

Bertuzzi and Bjorkstrand combined for 28 goals and 75 points last season at a combined hit of $10.15 million. Nylander had 40 goals and 87 points for under $7 million. Nylander and Bunting combined for 63 goals and 136 points last season for under $8 million.

You can keep your jack knives.

You are comparing a career high to two players on a down season. I am also looking at contracts moving past next season (the future!). I am not sure why you include Bunting moving forward - he is not a <1M player anymore. The premise of this proposal is factoring in Nylander's extension - were you able to read that far?

Also what happened to this: Post Deadline Transactions and Signings

Please live up to your word and stop spewing negativity on my posts.

 

[Fogelhund]

That's on me for bringing that up but I also think Nylander's value is inflated by one 40 goal season. I also understand that Bertuzzi should be viewed in the same lens - not so much Bjorkstrand whose production has been consistent for the 3 seasons prior to last. Again - I bring up career highs because I think that's where Nylander gets an inflated value from on these boards.


You are comparing a career high to two players on a down season. I am also looking at contracts moving past next season (the future!). I am not sure why you include Bunting moving forward - he is not a <1M player anymore. The premise of this proposal is factoring in Nylander's extension - were you able to read that far?

Also what happened to this: Post Deadline Transactions and Signings

Please live up to your word and stop spewing negativity on my posts.

Bjork... last four seasons... .68 PPG, Nylander 0.95 PPG

How about their last four playoff appearances? Bjork, 0.58 PPG, Nylander 0.97 PPG

It doesn't matter if you look at last season, career high, last four year average. These two are miles apart. I think Bjork is a decent part of a package for Nylander, and I get your value argument, but then you end up paying someone $4-5 million to play third line minutes in all likelihood, and then they aren't going to be near as productive. We have the cap space to run a decent top six... the bottom six might get dicey, but we aren't filling those spots with guys in the $4-5 mil range.



Keep in mind, "if" Bertuzzi clicks on Toronto, and plays with Matthews and Marner, his cap hit is likely to significantly change for the higher too. It's almost like a revolving door of guys on one year contracts, performing to get a bigger contract elsewhere might not be a bad thing for us, or the players. There already is a decent track record of that with Hyman and Bunting... you almost hope Bertuzzi does the same, creating some league demand to play with Matthews and Marner.

 

[Americanadian]

Bjork... last four seasons... .68 PPG, Nylander 0.95 PPG

How about their last four playoff appearances? Bjork, 0.58 PPG, Nylander 0.97 PPG

It doesn't matter if you look at last season, career high, last four year average. These two are miles apart. I think Bjork is a decent part of a package for Nylander, and I get your value argument, but then you end up paying someone $4-5 million to play third line minutes in all likelihood, and then they aren't going to be near as productive. We have the cap space to run a decent top six... the bottom six might get dicey, but we aren't filling those spots with guys in the $4-5 mil range.



Keep in mind, "if" Bertuzzi clicks on Toronto, and plays with Matthews and Marner, his cap hit is likely to significantly change for the higher too. It's almost like a revolving door of guys on one year contracts, performing to get a bigger contract elsewhere might not be a bad thing for us, or the players. There already is a decent track record of that with Hyman and Bunting... you almost hope Bertuzzi does the same, creating some league demand to play with Matthews and Marner.

I don't see investing money into the bottom 6 as a negative. Even if it's 2 3M players instead of a 5M+1M player. If Bertuzzi clicks and the Leafs had a Bjorkstrand I would imagine a top 6 of Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner, Knies-Tavares-Bjorkstrand after this season. I don't know why you don't think there's room for him.

I wholeheartedly disagree with the 1 and done players being a winning strategy. I am of the belief that continuity helps with winning in the playoffs. I'm more likely to go the extra mile for a guy I've been working with for years and will continue to work with for years than someone who showed up for 1 year and I know is gone as soon as the team finishes the season.

 

[kb]

Bjork... last four seasons... .68 PPG, Nylander 0.95 PPG

How about their last four playoff appearances? Bjork, 0.58 PPG, Nylander 0.97 PPG

It doesn't matter if you look at last season, career high, last four year average. These two are miles apart. I think Bjork is a decent part of a package for Nylander, and I get your value argument, but then you end up paying someone $4-5 million to play third line minutes in all likelihood, and then they aren't going to be near as productive. We have the cap space to run a decent top six... the bottom six might get dicey, but we aren't filling those spots with guys in the $4-5 mil range.



Keep in mind, "if" Bertuzzi clicks on Toronto, and plays with Matthews and Marner, his cap hit is likely to significantly change for the higher too. It's almost like a revolving door of guys on one year contracts, performing to get a bigger contract elsewhere might not be a bad thing for us, or the players. There already is a decent track record of that with Hyman and Bunting... you almost hope Bertuzzi does the same, creating some league demand to play with Matthews and Marner.

Actually, Bjork is $5.4 million. And in a vacuum, a trade of Bjork + Wright has merit. I posted similar earlier, but the thing is I am not sold on Wright's eventual upside.

Another point that was a head scratcher is that a guy who has a career high of 28 G and 57 Pts making $5.4 million (last year 20G, 45 pts) doesn't require any significant adds to get Nylander, but in a different trade a guy who had 20 G, 39 points making $2.1 is "unknown filler" value for a second pairing RD.

There is just no way to take that POV seriously, plus the use of a fatally flawed WAR stat as justification when it's impossible to isolate any single individual's impact within a 5 man unit. In baseball, WAR is entirely valid because each player is completely isolated both offensively and defensively.

 

[Americanadian]

There is just no way to take that POV seriously, plus the use of a fatally flawed WAR stat as justification when it's impossible to isolate any single individual's impact within a 5 man unit. In baseball, WAR is entirely valid because each player is completely isolated both offensively and defensively.

As much as GAR/WAR/GSVA have their flaws, they are better player evaluation metrics than raw points/goals.

 

[Americanadian]

Another point that was a head scratcher is that a guy who has a career high of 28 G and 57 Pts making $5.4 million (last year 20G, 45 pts) doesn't require any significant adds to get Nylander, but in a different trade a guy who had 20 G, 39 points making $2.1 is "unknown filler" value.

What is Jarnkrok? When he was played in the bottom 6 to start last season he was a below replacement level player. When he played in the top 6 next to Matthews he scored goals and played well - but he's probably not a top 6 player on a cup winning team. The Leafs currently have no room for him in the top 6 and he will most likely be anchoring a line next to Kampf where he has proven not to work. So do you play him in the top 6 where he is good, but not great, or do you play him in the bottom 6 where he is below replacement?

 

[Stephen]

Bjork at 5.4M will be better value than Nylander at 10M and Bjork's contract will expire at 31, not 36 like a Nylander deal would. Contracts matter in this league. You're also using Nylander's career year to define the player. It is far more likely that he never scores 40 goals again than he does.

I’m pragmatic when it comes to keeping or moving Nylander, but I’m generally not in favour of replacing him with inferior, cheaper guys at similar position to satisfy some notion of addition more depth (and mediocrity) in a direct trade.

For me, I would look for either a pure futures package so we can replenish the prospect pipeline with cheap talent and re-spend his cap, 1-2 double dip.

Or we trade him for a big strength elsewhere like defense which shifts cap and strengths to another position, and we go out and just get a replacement on the wing some other way that isn’t tied to the trade.

 

[Stephen]

It's unfortunate for him too. Seattle is pretty deep at C now too...

They have Matty Berniers, Alexander Wennberg, Yanni Gourde and signed Pierre-Edouard Bellemare in the offseason. He's not likely ready for the NHL, Seattle is in a compete now mode, and he isn't eligible for the AHL.... so he's likely to get eight games in the NHL as a winger, get a conditioning stint in the AHL and back to the OHL for him. A shame about the CHL rules, but it is, what it is.

He seems like a guy tabbed by Hockey Canada to be the It Guy (incorrectly).

 

[Menzinger]

If we're talking purely goals - Bjorkstrand scores at a 27 goal/82 game pace over the last 4 seasons, Nylander scores at a 35 goal/82 game pace - a difference of 8 goals per season or 23% less. 5.4M is 43% less than 9.5M. Again: better value per dollar, significantly better - and this is looking strictly at goal scoring which is Nylander's strong suit when Bjorkstrand is the better defensive player. On top of all that - Bjorkstrand's contract expires just as he enters his 30s so you aren't locked in to a significant decline. Nylander's most likely getting an 8 year deal where he will decline from day 1.

.

I think you're leaning into some of these age curve issues too much as absolutes rather than what ifs. Nylander just had his birthday a couple months ago - it really wouldn't/shouldn't surprise anyone if he maintained relatively consistent production over the next 5-6 seasons. It may not be quite 40 goals, but likely in the high 70s points along with 35+ goals.

And as mentioned with the Jarnkrok example earlier in the thread, one can fall into a trap with these 2nd tier middle six guys strictly looking at only a few stats especially when trying to judge value against stars. Like Jarnkrok potted 16 even strength goals plus good defensive numbers all for a budget contract of 2.1 mil. Yet I think youd be hard pressed to argue that Jarnkrok has even half the value of Nylander in terms of on ice value, either through a deeper statistics overview or even an old fashioned eyetest.

Edit: and the salary cap when Nylander is hitting that 32-34 range is going to be dramatically higher than it is at present.