Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[Fogelhund]

True, but if he is cleared then sign him.

No one is touching Comtois or Foote right now because of the hockey Canada stuff, too much could go wrong optically.

For sure I'd sign both... after the Hockey Canada stuff becomes public. I thought it would have been out by now... I wonder when. The suggestion was "early summer".

I actually think the Leafs should be trying to grab a few guys like Heinen, ZAR, Motte, Erne, Bear, Holden, Gagner, Pool Party and Hajek and sign them to 1 year 800k-1M 1-way deals...stash a few in the AHL so that you have good guys to call upon.

I suspect only a few would bite but they may not want to miss out on a job opportunity and 800k-1M to play in the AHL (no escrow) might be more appealing than a camp invite with no assurances they'd be able to get a contract.

At this point, we have four contract spots left... after Abruzzese is signed.

 

[WTFMAN99]

For sure I'd sign both... after the Hockey Canada stuff becomes public. I thought it would have been out by now... I wonder when. The suggestion was "early summer".



At this point, we have four contract spots left... after Abruzzese is signed.

Yeah, definitely wouldn't sign all of them because of the contract situation but if you can a couple just to have decent depth at your disposal, it goes a long way.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Aho's career he's been mostly PT /game

View attachment 731398

Last 5 years he's had 360 gp and 354 pts = 0.98 pt / game

Matthews career, well over a pt/game

View attachment 731399


Last 5 years Matthews has had 337 gp and 410 pts = 1.21 pt /game

Now...what's a realistic gap between the 2? Can it really be greater than 2M?

Keep in mind that Aho actually has 0.92 pt/game in playoffs and Matthews has 0.88 pt/game

Individual awards.. Aho hasn’t come close to any while Matthews has back to back Rockets, a Hart trophy, and a Calder to boot. Has also finished higher in Selke voting and a 2nd place Hart finish.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Individual awards.. Aho hasn’t come close to any while Matthews has back to back Rockets, a Hart trophy, and a Calder to boot. Has also finished higher in Selke voting and a 2nd place Hart finish.

I know but what's the gap, realistically?

Can/is it be more than 2M?

 

[tmlfan98]

I'd like to think there's more than just doing the bare minimum before the season starts for the team.

Yeah my guess is either Brodie or Nylander is gone depending on what happens with Nylander's extension negotiations. Trading one of these players who both make at least 5M would free up more space for Treliving to make more changes to the defense before the season starts.

I was just outlining the bare minimum pathways to show that the Leafs aren't far off from being cap compliant now. There will be no need to trade assets for sub-optimal value like many seem to think.

 

[kb]

I know but what's the gap, realistically?

Can/is it be more than 2M?

Way more, yes.

Why are posters thinking they (and their projections) are the be all and end all of salary projections, and that the Leafs "don't care about winning" if they don't take these hideously pathetic offers?

People need to think. It's hard, and it's not necessarily going to back up their takes.....but at least try it.

 

[Sypher04]

Any free agents out there still of interest? like good players who are gonna end up having to take cheap, 1 year deals because the money has all been spent

 

[Americanadian]

Any free agents out there still of interest? like good players who are gonna end up having to take cheap, 1 year deals because the money has all been spent

Maybe Tyler Motte. I still see a hole at 4LW assuming Kampf and Reaves won't play together. Motte-Lafferty-Reaves is a fine 4th line.

Pius Suter would be a decent player for a defensive 3rd line with Kampf.

 

[tmlfan98]

Any free agents out there still of interest? like good players who are gonna end up having to take cheap, 1 year deals because the money has all been spent

I like Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Pius Suter and Puljujarvi.

 

[Peace Frog]

Dumba

 

[hamzarocks]

Aho can barely reach over a PPG per season. He only had 67 points in 75 games this past year. He's a terrific player but he's nowhere near the player Marner or Matthews are. They both trump his production quite a bit, and his playoff production isn't really all that good either.

With that said, at least he signed for 8 years and committed to the Canes. That contract seems fine and inline with the recent signings. But hey... we're so lucky that Matthews only wants a 3 year contract for a cool 13M. Soooo lucky I tell you!

This was the only "down year Aho has had

Before this he was 80 pt center who is solid defensively and playoffs wise he is as productive as any of our big 4(think he may be a bit more productive)

If marner is worth 11M (1.25M more than Aho) for 20 more reg pts, similar overall defense, and comparable playoffs production then it should be on 8 year term

Marner next deal at 11M x 8 is not too bad.

However if he gets something like 12.16 x 6 that is terrible when Aho got 9.75 being a ppg center for 4 out of 5 years (canes had injuries and low offense for most of their players this year)

 

[WTFMAN99]

This was the only "down year Aho has had

Before this he was 80 pt center who is solid defensively and playoffs wise he is as productive as any of our big 4(think he may be a bit more productive)

If marner is worth 11M (1.25M more than Aho) for 20 more reg pts, similar overall defense, and comparable playoffs production then it should be on 8 year term

Marner next deal at 11M x 8 is not too bad.

However if he gets something like 12.16 x 6 that is terrible when Aho got 9.75 being a ppg center for 4 out of 5 years (canes had injuries and low offense for most of their players this year)

Centres should pull more than wingers too.

Keeping in mind that if Aho's production in the playoffs isn't that good, Matthews is awful because Aho actually has the higher pt/game in the playoffs.

 

[justashadowof]

Based on that Aho contract, the Leafs ain't re-signing Nylander for under $10M aav.

 

[trellaine201]

I’d love the Leafs to sign a solid veteran goalies to back up Samsanov. Someone similar to Jake Allen (bad year though) or Reimer. In case Samsanov gets hurt. Can’t rely on Woll. 20-25 games isn’t nearly enough games to be proven.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

 

[Americanadian]

I’d love the Leafs to sign a solid veteran goalies to back up Samsanov. Someone similar to Jake Allen (bad year though) or Reimer. In case Samsanov gets hurt. Can’t rely on Woll. 20-25 games isn’t nearly enough games to be proven.

It’ll be Vladar if something goes wrong mid-season.

 

[Duffman955]

Aho's career he's been mostly PT /game

View attachment 731398

Last 5 years he's had 360 gp and 354 pts = 0.98 pt / game

Matthews career, well over a pt/game

View attachment 731399


Last 5 years Matthews has had 337 gp and 410 pts = 1.21 pt /game

Now...what's a realistic gap between the 2? Can it really be greater than 2M?

Keep in mind that Aho actually has 0.92 pt/game in playoffs and Matthews has 0.88 pt/game

How many 0.9 ppg players are there vs how many 1.2ppg players are there.

It's a huge difference. 60 goals vs 30 goals lmao

 

[WTFMAN99]

How many 0.9 ppg players are there vs how many 1.2ppg players are there.

It's a huge difference. 60 goals vs 30 goals lmao

No disputing that the difference between 60 goals and 30 goals is vast.

However, Matthews has achieved that once, it's not been a perennial thing.

Last season Matthews put up 40 goals and Aho put up 36, will Matthews do this again? Will his bum wrist see his goal production drop moving forward?

The main question we gotta come back to is that Aho's pt/game and aav is actually closer to Matthews peers and we're talking about blowing Matthews past everyone in terms of aav but I am not sure that it's justified.

What's the gap on these 2 players, is it 2M? More? Why? I don't understand where the 13-14M AAV talk comes from, I just don't see the math adding up.

McDavid makes 16.67% of the cap...and Matthews does not have the hardware, production or playoff success of him. So shall we go down to...14-14.5%?

(median) 14.25% of projected 87M cap = 12.397,500 and that would make sense to be an 8 year like McDavid right?

 

[Duffman955]

No disputing that the difference between 60 goals and 30 goals is vast.

However, Matthews has achieved that once, it's not been a perennial thing.

Last season Matthews put up 40 goals and Aho put up 36, will Matthews do this again? Will his bum wrist see his goal production drop moving forward?

The main question we gotta come back to is that Aho's pt/game and aav is actually closer to Matthews peers and we're talking about blowing Matthews past everyone in terms of aav but I am not sure that it's justified.

What's the gap on these 2 players, is it 2M? More? Why? I don't understand where the 13-14M AAV talk comes from, I just don't see the math adding up.

Matthews while injured having his worst season is still better than Ahos best

lmfao how are we still discussing this. I'm out.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Matthews while injured having his worst season is still better than Ahos best

lmfao how are we still discussing this. I'm out.

Auston Matthews worst season is 69 pts in 82GP and Aho's best is probably 83 pts in 82GP...how is that the same?

I made a revision to the previous post you replied to, to try to work out some type of math that makes sense.

 

[IPS]

Carolina has finished the regular season with more points than Toronto every year for the last 4 years. Aho is their best player. Don't pretend like he wouldn't be extremely appreciated in Toronto with the game he brings. Matthews and Marner are no doubt better players but taking contracts into account Aho definitely provides better bang for your buck than those 2 as it stands at this point in time.

 

[andora]

Carolina has finished the regular season with more points than Toronto every year for the last 4 years. Aho is their best player. Don't pretend like he wouldn't be extremely appreciated in Toronto with the game he brings. Matthews and Marner are no doubt better players but taking contracts into account Aho definitely provides better bang for your buck than those 2 as it stands at this point in time.

He would be adored here

 

[Menzinger]

Aho's career he's been mostly PT /game

View attachment 731398

Last 5 years he's had 360 gp and 354 pts = 0.98 pt / game

Matthews career, well over a pt/game

View attachment 731399


Last 5 years Matthews has had 337 gp and 410 pts = 1.21 pt /game

Now...what's a realistic gap between the 2? Can it really be greater than 2M?

Keep in mind that Aho actually has 0.92 pt/game in playoffs and Matthews has 0.88 pt/game

Aho is a year older, has 81 less goals and has played more games.

 

[hamzarocks]

Aho is a year older, has 81 less goals and has played more games.

The issues inst Matthwws making 3M more than Aho

12.75-13.25M is fine but at the same term

13 5M x 3 or 4 means he will be making 16-17M on his next deal eating up any salary cap increases and furthering restricting the teams abity to maintain quality depth long term

His playoff play is closer to a 8.5-9M player which is also a huge gamble

Some players figure it out others like (Spezza, Marleau, Thornton) don't figure it out.

13.5M x 4 is a deal Matthews wont come close to living up to

He isn't 6-7M better than Aho adjuated for term

 

[hamzarocks]

Aho 2018-2019 to 2022-2023

354 pts in 360 games or a 81 pt pace

Nylander 295 pts in 336 games or a 72 pt pace the same period

1. Aho plays on a lower offensive team
2. Aho is the main(#1) offensive option for the Canes vs Nylander being 3/4 (was 4 behind JT for a bit now has passed him)
3. Aho is a stronger playoff performer than Nylander and has had more team succsess making it deeper consistently
4. Aho is a center and a better two way player than Nylander

Aho comes in at 9.75M x 8

Nylander 8.8 x 8

Marner 11 x 8

Matthews 13M x 8

Those are fair values where each player is getting tbe absolute maximum that they deserve (0 discount given but no overpayment) while giving maximum term

If our players come in at those salaries or higher at 4-6 year term it shows how greedy and selfish they are. Treliving should be fired and Shammy for not rebuilding/retooling vs potentially giving into tjose absurd deals