Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

[All Mod Cons]

You keep repeating that advanced analytics is synonymous with soft. Tom Wilson is actually a solid player and the analytics show it.

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The difference between “the Corsi crowd” and you is we want players who can play and not fizzle out when they get here.

Like Malgin? I remember seeing lots of tweets about his metrics for X, Y and Z and just pissed myself laughing.

 

[stickty111]

You keep repeating that advanced analytics is synonymous with soft. Tom Wilson is actually a solid player and the analytics show it.

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The difference between “the Corsi crowd” and you is we want players who can play and not fizzle out when they get here.

You can even look at our former player in Kadri. The analytics community adores him and he's the opposite of soft

 

[The Podium]

Like Malgin? I remember seeing lots of tweets about his metrics for X, Y and Z and just pissed myself laughing.

There is literally nothing that conceptually links analytics to soft. The only thing that links the two is the meat head contrarians who are afraid of change.

Analytics measure a players effectiveness, big, small, physical, non-physical. A good players is a good player that is reflected in the stats. Crazy as it may seem, small players can be effective and therefore will have good stats. Big players can be effective and therefore have good stats.

Analytics = small literally has no link

 

[Knies iT]

Our system / organization doesn't favor the bangers.

Martin, Simmonds and Ritchie just never worked here for the above reason it feels like. You also can't have just one of these guys and expect to be a "physical" team.

Leafs have Komarov, Fraser, Orr, McLaren and Phaneuf in that lock out shortened season, that team was one you didn't wanna mess with but didn't have top end talent.

Lineups are all about fit. In the right system, Jeannot could be a complete menace. Here, he'd be on an island and probably drag the line he's on. As is, I don't see a line that could bring the best out of him. That's partly an indictment on our forward build and partly a knock on his ability to drive play.

He's had two seasons now on opposite ends of the spectrum of his true ability. I think he's a 15+15 hyper physical north-south forward that would thrive on a Tampa, Boston, St. Louis, Vegas team. His best seasons will be in the 20+20 range, like last year.

 

[Brobust]

One thing I find strange is that, over time, the 'corsi crowd' and non-corsi crowd would find concensus because this game isn't so complex for the numbers and eye test to not match.

Ben Chiarot is ass. I know this not because of the numbers but because we've seem him in dozens of games as a Hab. (Yzerman is a fraud)

William Nylander is fantastic, but are there games where he is unmotivated or defeatist when chasing plays? Yes. I know this is a someone who is watching the games.

There really are no players anymore where the analytics and eye test don't match. We all know that there are 3rd pair d-men so sheltered that even their QoC numbers are a sham.

If you want to talk about a player. Watch them play and look at their numbers. Avoid the amalgamated metrics. You'll have a great idea of what they are.

 

[WTFMAN99]

One thing I find strange is that, over time, the 'corsi crowd' and non-corsi crowd would find concensus because this game isn't so complex for the numbers and eye test to not match.

Ben Chiarot is ass. I know this not because of the numbers but because we've seem him in dozens of games as a Hab. (Yzerman is a fraud)

William Nylander is fantastic, but are there games where he is unmotivated or defeatist when chasing plays? Yes. I know this is a someone who is watching the games.

There really are no players anymore where the analytics and eye test don't match. We all know that there are 3rd pair d-men so sheltered that even their QoC numbers are a sham.

If you want to talk about a player. Watch them play and look at their numbers. Avoid the amalgamated metrics. You'll have a great idea of what they are.

Yes, it it can be tiring to hear that my eyes are biased lol.

The advanced stats people go through on here are nice for whichever site they're a patreon to and paying actual $$ for.

While I am sure analytics departments are aware of them...they likely use their own in house stuff.

 

[Nhlpowerweek]

Read about 20 posts but didnt see it. Facebook rumours, maybe daily maple leafs or something said that the maple leafs are the front runners to power forward todd bertuzzi for the playoffs. There was a picture of dubas and yzerman too.


Interesthang. Bertuzzi can now fly too all over the world since the vacc that thang up rule is no longer.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Read about 20 posts but didnt see it. Facebook rumours, maybe daily maple leafs or something said that the maple leafs are the front runners to power forward todd bertuzzi for the playoffs. There was a picture of dubas and yzerman too.


Interesthang. Bertuzzi can now fly too all over the world since the vacc that thang up rule is no longer.

Well it's certainly been a few years since I watched Todd play but I don't really remember people thinking he could fly. Hell of a power forward for sure but are we sure thats what we are getting at 48 years old?

 

[kb]

Also Boston has cap space

Boston has 3.25 mil in cap space
Example if Detroit doesn't sign Larkin
They would be unstoppable

They will have to factor in the over 35 bonuses for both Bergeron and Krejci next season.....if you are talking this season, sure....well set up. But they will have to blow it up next season. This is the end of being an elite team for them.

Read about 20 posts but didnt see it. Facebook rumours, maybe daily maple leafs or something said that the maple leafs are the front runners to power forward todd bertuzzi for the playoffs. There was a picture of dubas and yzerman too.


Interesthang. Bertuzzi can now fly too all over the world since the vacc that thang up rule is no longer.

The US still requires vax.....but there is talk of lifting it April 23rd...?

 

[Nhlpowerweek]

Well it's certainly been a few years since I watched Todd play but I don't really remember people thinking he could fly. Hell of a power forward for sure but are we sure thats what we are getting at 48 years old?

Oh shit sire. I meant tyler bertuzzi. Yzermans bertuzzi. And he has played in Canada this season. He is the only player in the world who aint vacced

 

[Peace Frog]

One thing I find strange is that, over time, the 'corsi crowd' and non-corsi crowd would find concensus because this game isn't so complex for the numbers and eye test to not match.

Ben Chiarot is ass. I know this not because of the numbers but because we've seem him in dozens of games as a Hab. (Yzerman is a fraud)

William Nylander is fantastic, but are there games where he is unmotivated or defeatist when chasing plays? Yes. I know this is a someone who is watching the games.

There really are no players anymore where the analytics and eye test don't match. We all know that there are 3rd pair d-men so sheltered that even their QoC numbers are a sham.

If you want to talk about a player. Watch them play and look at their numbers. Avoid the amalgamated metrics. You'll have a great idea of what they are.

I agree. Nothing wrong with checking analytics to SUPPORT the eye test, but there’s nothing more useful than watching a player several times. That’s how you really get an accurate reading on their overall game.

 

[hamzarocks]

They will have to factor in the over 35 bonuses for both Bergeron and Krejci next season.....if you are talking this season, sure....well set up. But they will have to blow it up next season. This is the end of being an elite team for them.


The US still requires vax.....but there is talk of lifting it April 23rd...?

People say that about Boston every year and they find a way to be a contender the next year. Expecting the same in the summer and next season

 

[Nhlpowerweek]

People say that about Boston every year and they find a way to be a contender the next year. Expecting the same in the summer and next season

You already know hockey son. We already need schenn or gudas. Also some of that sweet bertuzzi tooth you know what I'm saying.

 

[Peace Frog]

I wonder if Dubas will wait until TDD, or if he’ll make his move(s) earlier? If earlier, will it be a few days, or a week or two early?

What’s everyone think?

 

[Rielly4]

Seems to me we would wait longer for cap reasons. The only reason we would make an earlier trade is the possibility of a weaker team taking on Engvall or Kerfoot and possibly flipping them later before the deadline.

 

[rojac]

I wonder if Dubas will wait until TDD, or if he’ll make his move(s) earlier? If earlier, will it be a few days, or a week or two early?

What’s everyone think?

Dubas will make his move when a piece he wants is available for a price he’s willing to pay. I don’t think he’s going to overpay or settle for someone he doesn’t really want just to get a deal done by a certain date.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Seems to me we would wait longer for cap reasons. The only reason we would make an earlier trade is the possibility of a weaker team taking on Engvall or Kerfoot and possibly flipping them later before the deadline.

If we find a taker for Kerfoot (which IMO is inevitable) we have an awful lot of cap space to work with. Dubas likes both his early deals as well as his late ones, so IMO it's anyone's guess.

 

[Americanadian]

Seems to me we would wait longer for cap reasons. The only reason we would make an earlier trade is the possibility of a weaker team taking on Engvall or Kerfoot and possibly flipping them later before the deadline.

The Leafs won't gain any cap space as time goes on because they've been in LTIR all season. What they have today will be what they have on deadline day.

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Saw on Facebook (I know, I know..) that Kane would block any trade attempt outta Chicago. Not sure I buy that.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Saw on Facebook (I know, I know..) that Kane would block any trade attempt outta Chicago. Not sure I buy that.

are we really still talking about Patrick Kane here? sheesh. He ain't coming here.

 

[The Podium]

My realistic, IMO, but risky TDL:

Trade
Kerfoot - anywhere for a 3rd or 4th
Gavrikov 50% - 2023 1st + Kerfoots return (sign 5x5)
Bertuzzi 50% - 2023 3rd and 2025 3rd
ROR 50% - 2024 2nd + B level prospect (Hirvonen or Abruzzese)

Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Jarnkrok - Tavares - Marner
Bertuzzi - ROR - Engvall
ZAR - Kampf - Andersen/McMann

Reilly - Lilly
Gavrikov - Brodie
Gio - Holl
Sandin, Timmins

Samsonov
Murray

428k in cap left over

 

[weems]

I know it's just one game but Bertuzzi looked pretty good against us when we played the Wings in January.
I have no idea why he's having such a awful season but he's still only 27 years old and has been a consistent 25g scorer in his last 220 or so games.
You'd also be aquiring him while his value is super low and I think it's fair to think the upside of the move could be very good.

He could even mesh well on a line with Tavares because both guys do alot of offensive damage in around the same area's and neither is a burner.

 

[ULF_55]

How about Nurse?
Lists the Leafs as favorite team.
Shoots left
from Hamilton
Won Gold
Not big at 5'8" might be an issue
Probably have to have a 2nd. lockerroom.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I know it's just one game but Bertuzzi looked pretty good against us when we played the Wings in January.
I have no idea why he's having such a awful season but he's still only 27 years old and has been a consistent 25g scorer in his last 220 or so games.
You'd also be aquiring him while his value is super low and I think it's fair to think the upside of the move could be very good.

He could even mesh well on a line with Tavares because both guys do alot of offensive damage in around the same area's and neither is a burner.

I don't think we'll be in on it

 

[VanW27]

I know it's just one game but Bertuzzi looked pretty good against us when we played the Wings in January.
I have no idea why he's having such a awful season but he's still only 27 years old and has been a consistent 25g scorer in his last 220 or so games.
You'd also be aquiring him while his value is super low and I think it's fair to think the upside of the move could be very good.

He could even mesh well on a line with Tavares because both guys do alot of offensive damage in around the same area's and neither is a burner.

27 (28 in a couple weeks), with a major back surgery under his belt already. Could be a buy low with upside candidate but could also be a guy who's career is basically over.