Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

[ULF_55]

Waiting for the All Star game to end before it’s announced? Game is tonight or tomorrow?

We know Gary doesn't like anything to detract from the Marketing Break.

 

[ACC1224]

St. Louis Blues Report / NHL Insider

There are several Blues who may be in play.

They weren’t referring to a specific player ?
Who was the player?

 

[thusk]

NHL resumes Feb 6, and yotes are playing may be then

not sure how the cap works for the oilers though and what they give up would be interesting

Just start with puljurjarvi out and you having a big part of money for chychrun

 

[ErnieLeafs]

are we really still talking about Patrick Kane here? sheesh. He ain't coming here.

I have never advocated for bringing him in. Ever. I posted because I was hoping it were true, and people would stop talking about it

 

[Mess]

You’re right but inherent biases, players who are gifted great opportunities or put in difficult position may unfairly appear good or bad to the eye test.

The analytics are just another tool to help decipher which players may be outperforming their capabilities or which may be underperforming. It doesn’t hurt to have as much information as possible to evaluate a player.

There is a reason why anyone who follows analytics repeatedly say “in combination with the eye test”, yet that always seems to be ignored.

If you still have your doubts, give me a list of powerforwards and I will show you how they perform analytically.

Due Zach Hyman please.

His +16 +/- among the best of this team as well as his 60 points with 26 goals in 49 games tells one he is very effective offensively and not a defensive liability at ES.

Then I look at a player like John Tavares for reference from the Leafs who has 51 points with 21 goals in 52 games with a -1 +/- and that appears to be a player struggling at ES defensively on a better defensive team.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Good players don't really require confirmation from analytics though. If a player is already popping as a quality player via eye test, plays on a successful team, produces a high volume, and is held in high value, you don't really need the extra data to tell you the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Go ahead, run the data but you're not getting extra insight.

Exactly.

 

[The Podium]

Due Zach Hyman please.

His +16 +/- among the best of this team as well as his 60 points with 26 goals in 49 games tells one he is very effective offensively and not a defensive liability at ES.

Then I look at a player like John Tavares for reference from the Leafs who has 51 points with 21 goals in 52 games with a -1 +/- and that appears to be a player struggling at ES defensively on a better defensive team.

Hymans D is embarrassingly bad this season, but still better than either of his linemates. Like you can see from the eye test, their line cheats for offense.

Hyman is the perfect player to show where the stats meet the eye test. Hyman isn’t a bad defensive player and has had great defensive results in the past, but this season that isn’t the case. Having a team and a line that thinks offense 100% of the time explains the poor defense but huge bump in offense.

Exactly.

So you guys agree that stats match the eye test but dismiss stats in favour of the eye test while mocking anyone who follows the stats?

Makes sense

 

[All Mod Cons]

Due Zach Hyman please.

His +16 +/- among the best of this team as well as his 60 points with 26 goals in 49 games tells one he is very effective offensively and not a defensive liability at ES.

Then I look at a player like John Tavares for reference from the Leafs who has 51 points with 21 goals in 52 games with a -1 +/- and that appears to be a player struggling at ES defensively on a better defensive team.

Yeah. And then you get the die hards trying to convince the world Cody Franchise and Jake Gardiner are elite.

 

[The Podium]

Yeah. And then you get the die hards trying to convince the world Cody Franchise and Jake Gardiner are elite.

But they don’t, now you’re making up stories

At this point you’re just naming bad players from Leafs past and blaming it on analytics

 

[Mess]

View attachment 645781
View attachment 645782

Hymans D is embarrassingly bad this season, but still better than either of his linemates. Like you can see from the eye test, their line cheats for offense.

Thanks

I was reading a recent article in the Atlantic from Jan 2022 and this tracks your Surplus Value. Hyman by the "Eye test" is playing like double his contract value.

How brilliant is Zach Hyman? He's worth $13 million this season, say NHL analysts

Zach Hyman’s play is so strong this year that The Athletic’s analytics team has his value pegged at $13.0 million. That’s $7.5 million more value than the $5.5 million that Hyman will make in 2022-23, according to stats analysts Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn.

How brilliant is Zach Hyman? He's worth $13 million this season, say NHL analysts

Zach Hyman’s play is so strong this year that The Athletic’s analytics team has his value pegged at $13.0 million. That’s $7.5 million more value than the $5.5 mill…

edmontonjournal.com

 

[The Podium]

Thanks

I was reading a recent article in the Atlantic from Jan 2022 and this tracks your Surplus Value. Hyman by the "Eye test" is playing like double his contract value.

How brilliant is Zach Hyman? He's worth $13 million this season, say NHL analysts

Zach Hyman’s play is so strong this year that The Athletic’s analytics team has his value pegged at $13.0 million. That’s $7.5 million more value than the $5.5 million that Hyman will make in 2022-23, according to stats analysts Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn.

How brilliant is Zach Hyman? He's worth $13 million this season, say NHL analysts

Zach Hyman’s play is so strong this year that The Athletic’s analytics team has his value pegged at $13.0 million. That’s $7.5 million more value than the $5.5 mill…

edmontonjournal.com

You’re reading an article by the same author who makes those little player cards

 

[SeaOfBlue]

But they don’t, now you’re making up stories

At this point you’re just naming bad players from Leafs past and blaming it on analytics

Franson wasn't even that bad when he was here. Neither was Gardiner (for an offensive defenseman on a poor defensive team; he would have a tough time sticking in our current lineup).

And I am fairly sure the analytics supported that.

It was peoples' eye-tests which were making the ridiculous claims about both... Which is odd because I don't know how anyone who has watched hockey for more than a year could say that Gardiner was ever good at defense by watching him. If he couldn't catch them with his speed, he was worse than useless in his own end.

 

[hamzarocks]

Franson wasn't even that bad when he was here. Neither was Gardiner (for an offensive defenseman on a poor defensive team; he would have a tough time sticking in our current lineup).

And I am fairly sure the analytics supported that.

It was peoples' eye-tests which were making the ridiculous claims about both... Which is odd because I don't know how anyone who has watched hockey for more than a year could say that Gardiner was ever good at defense by watching him. If he couldn't catch them with his speed, he was worse than useless in his own end.

Gardiner was a better player than sandin ever will be

He made mistakes in the playoffs same as sandin has made and will continue to make

Franson was also a solid 3rd pairing guy. Problem with those teams was no elite core like now

 

[Americanadian]

Thanks

I was reading a recent article in the Atlantic from Jan 2022 and this tracks your Surplus Value. Hyman by the "Eye test" is playing like double his contract value.

How brilliant is Zach Hyman? He's worth $13 million this season, say NHL analysts

Zach Hyman’s play is so strong this year that The Athletic’s analytics team has his value pegged at $13.0 million. That’s $7.5 million more value than the $5.5 million that Hyman will make in 2022-23, according to stats analysts Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn.

How brilliant is Zach Hyman? He's worth $13 million this season, say NHL analysts

Zach Hyman’s play is so strong this year that The Athletic’s analytics team has his value pegged at $13.0 million. That’s $7.5 million more value than the $5.5 mill…

edmontonjournal.com

I don't want to rain on Hyman's parade here but those valuations are very flawed. They take into account negative contract values when they should treat all negatives as league minimum (they label them league minimum but don't calculate the total salary pool that way). Hyman's value this season is closer to 9.4M (I have a table where I calculate everyone's value on a spectrum from 750k-16.5M).

 

[The Podium]

It keeps coming up in my head how complimentary Kane has been to Matthews in the past. IIRC he made a comment about being bummed by not getting the chance to play with him when the NHL backed out of the Olympics. With his NMC, would be nice if a player leveraged themselves to Toronto on a soft deal. If not, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a discounted deal (3-4 mill) to play in Toronto next season.

Then it provides so interesting lineup options

Bunting - Matthews - Kane
Nylander - Tavares - Marner

Or

Bunting - Matthews - Kane
Nylander - XXXX - Marner
XXXX - Tavares - XXXX

 

[Avilaj07]

I know people keep mentioning Bunting for next season but I'm not 100% sold on him. Has he been good on our 1st line, sure but then again, who wouldn't when you're playing with Matthews and Marner. I'd only keep him at 3.5 million a year max, anything more and I'd let him go. I'd much rather have Bertuzzi

 

[Mess]

I don't want to rain on Hyman's parade here but those valuations are very flawed. They take into account negative contract values when they should treat all negatives as league minimum (they label them league minimum but don't calculate the total salary pool that way). Hyman's value this season is closer to 9.4M (I have a table where I calculate everyone's value on a spectrum from 750k-16.5M).

Here was their review of the Leafs as of Jan 22, 2022.

How do our Leafs compare by your method?

Players like Tavares, Rielly and Matt Murray standout, for the opposite reason of player value, and playing below contract values.

 

[ULF_55]

Here was their review of the Leafs as of Jan 22, 2022.

View attachment 645807

Look at Liljegren and Sandin... and we shouldn't be surprised about Giordano.

 

[thusk]

It keeps coming up in my head how complimentary Kane has been to Matthews in the past. IIRC he made a comment about being bummed by not getting the chance to play with him when the NHL backed out of the Olympics. With his NMC, would be nice if a player leveraged themselves to Toronto on a soft deal. If not, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a discounted deal (3-4 mill) to play in Toronto next season.

Then it provides so interesting lineup options

Bunting - Matthews - Kane
Nylander - Tavares - Marner

Or

Bunting - Matthews - Kane
Holmberg- jt- Marner
Jarnkrok - kerfoot - nylander

Or a 3rd option

Bunting - Matthews - Kane
Holmberg- jt - Marner
Kerfoot - Jarnkrok- nylander (leafs HBK line)

 

[Mess]

Look at Liljegren and Sandin... and we shouldn't be surprised about Giordano.

That why some brilliant people say "Play the Kids" because they give you the best bang for you buck.

Its why Leafs window of opportunity existed greatest when the 3 Amigo's were on ELC and closed much tighter after being re-signed.

PS, Its fine to play Grandpa Gio because he is only making league min.

 

[Gabriel426]

Overdrive after the Bruins game said it best, I am paraphrasing, getting depth is not about getting bottom 6 players, it means getting players higher up in the lineup to bump guys down.
I think getting Meier or Kane or ROR or Toews or whoever in the Top 6, one thing that Keefe needs to do and I have been stressing this since the Blue Jackets series, Keefe needs to figure out how to spread the big four in three lines.
Let’s say they get Meier, can adding Meier allows Keefe to spread the big four into three effective lines? Bc bumping down Bunting or Calle to the 3rd line ain’t doing much to improve depth scoring.
Or maybe Leafs need TWO mid 6 forwards to accomplish that instead of Meier or Kane.
Or try Holmberg and Engvall with AM or JT lines and see how they play.
The reality is that, we are stuck being 2nd or 3rd place and Keefe needs to find internal solutions.
This AM injury might just be blessing in disguise if Keefe willing to try guys like Holmberg and Engvall higher in the lineup and see if they play there or not.
Engvall always shows glimpse of that, keep him in the top 6 and see if he can do it more consistently.
Holmberg shows sign he can play, maybe play him in the Wing instead of C in the Top 6.

I would also try Calle with AM on the first line with the new forward addition bc I think Bunting is more suited with JT and MM as a matchup line in the playoffs. Then you have the three Swedes on the third line with Willie leading charge. Kampf, ZAR and Anderson/Simmonds/McMann be on the 4th line.

 

[Americanadian]

Here was their review of the Leafs as of Jan 22, 2022.

View attachment 645807

How do our Leafs compare by your method?

Players like Tavares, Rielly and Matt Murray standout, for the opposite reason of player value, and playing below contract values.

Using that exact same list I get:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player Name[/TD]
[TD]Surplus[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Kerfoot[/TD]
[TD]3.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]4.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Calle Jarnkrok[/TD]
[TD]1.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Kampf[/TD]
[TD]0.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Tavares[/TD]
[TD]-2.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Holl[/TD]
[TD]4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Giordano[/TD]
[TD]3.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michael Bunting[/TD]
[TD]9.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitch Marner[/TD]
[TD]2.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]
[TD]0.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nicholas Robertson[/TD]
[TD]0.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pierre Engvall[/TD]
[TD]0.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pontus Holmberg[/TD]
[TD]3.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Sandin[/TD]
[TD]0.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Timothy Liljegren[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tj Brodie[/TD]
[TD]3.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]
[TD]2.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Aston-Reese[/TD]
[TD]-0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]
[TD]-0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Murray[/TD]
[TD]-4.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]36.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Murray being -4.9M on his total contract.

 

[Gabriel426]

Here was their review of the Leafs as of Jan 22, 2022.

View attachment 645807

How do our Leafs compare by your method?

Players like Tavares, Rielly and Matt Murray standout, for the opposite reason of player value, and playing below contract values.

How can ZAR be -1.3, he is already making the league minimum. Can’t really put ELC and consider them league minimum too.
Also, Murray been injured.

 

[Americanadian]

How can ZAR be -1.3, he is already making the league minimum. Can’t really put ELC and consider them league minimum too.
Also, Murray been injured.

That is the flaw with the Athletic's calculation.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Using that exact same list I get:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player Name[/TD]
[TD]Surplus[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Kerfoot[/TD]
[TD]3.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]4.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Calle Jarnkrok[/TD]
[TD]1.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Kampf[/TD]
[TD]0.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Tavares[/TD]
[TD]-2.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Holl[/TD]
[TD]4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Giordano[/TD]
[TD]3.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michael Bunting[/TD]
[TD]9.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitch Marner[/TD]
[TD]2.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]
[TD]0.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nicholas Robertson[/TD]
[TD]0.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pierre Engvall[/TD]
[TD]0.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pontus Holmberg[/TD]
[TD]3.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Sandin[/TD]
[TD]0.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Timothy Liljegren[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tj Brodie[/TD]
[TD]3.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]
[TD]2.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Aston-Reese[/TD]
[TD]-0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]
[TD]-0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Murray[/TD]
[TD]-4.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]36.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Murray being -4.9M on his total contract.

So according to you Samsonov has underperformed his contract and Kerfoot is worth $7 million?