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Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

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VanW27 said:
27 (28 in a couple weeks), with a major back surgery under his belt already. Could be a buy low with upside candidate but could also be a guy who's career is basically over.
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Ya it's definitely risky with potential to be a total bust but if it works out, his skillset would be a very nice add to our forward group.

This is where your pro scouts need to do a good job of properly assessing where his current game is at when deadline time comes around.
 
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The Podium said:
My realistic, IMO, but risky TDL:

Trade
Kerfoot - anywhere for a 3rd or 4th
Gavrikov 50% - 2023 1st + Kerfoots return (sign 5x5)
Bertuzzi 50% - 2023 3rd and 2025 3rd
ROR 50% - 2024 2nd + B level prospect (Hirvonen or Abruzzese)

Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Jarnkrok - Tavares - Marner
Bertuzzi - ROR - Engvall
ZAR - Kampf - Andersen/McMann

Reilly - Lilly
Gavrikov - Brodie
Gio - Holl
Sandin, Timmins

Samsonov
Murray

428k in cap left over
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I would rather just pay the price for McCabe than give that for Gavrikov. I don't think McCabe is all-that either, but at least he has term at a lower hit and allegedly does not cost a first without retention.

Personally, I see the Leafs stopping at ROR or some other 3C (Toews, Monahan, Henrique, or maybe Domi).

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Jarnkrok-Tavares-Marner
Kerfoot - ROR - Holmberg
ZAR - Kampf - Engvall
Anderson/Knies

Rielly - Brodie
Gio - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren
Benn/Timmins

Samsonov-Murray
Woll

And I would not be surprised to see Knies get a legit opportunity at that 3LW spot, bumping Kerfoot to RW, and Holmberg comes out or replaces ZAR.
 
weems said:
Ya it's definitely risky with potential to be a total bust but if it works out, his skillset would be a very nice add to our forward group.

This is where your pro scouts need to do a good job of properly assessing where his current game is at when deadline time comes around.
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It is a big 'if' when you also consider you would need to take Kerfoot out of the lineup to make it work.
 
The more I think about it the more likely Bertuzzi is a likely TDL move, because the cost of acquiring him would be a 3rd and maybe another low pick or C prospect and Dubas could sign him to a contract extension at one year and the same cap hit because I think no team would offer Bertuzzi more money base on the injuries he had this season.
 
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SeaOfBlue said:
It is a big 'if' when you also consider you would need to take Kerfoot out of the lineup to make it work.
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I agree I'm just curious what the deal with Bertuzzi currently is.

Is he broken now from injury/surgery or is this a combination of a poor season and needing time to fully heal/get his game back?

He's been a good player for a seasons and was actually a player who had legit skill and sandpaper.
 
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weems said:
I agree I'm just curious what the deal with Bertuzzi currently is.

Is he broken now from injury/surgery or is this a combination of a poor season and needing time to fully heal/get his game back?

He's been a good player for a seasons and was actually a player who had legit skill and sandpaper.
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Don't know, but some team will pay up for him. It is a weak UFA pool on the wing, especially with Kane and Tarasenko choosing their destinations and Nyquist now out for the rest of the year (although he may be back for playoffs and could be a buy-low option for the Leafs).

JvR, shifting Domi back to the wing, Kerfoot (if available), Barbashev, and then Bertuzzi are the only really promising ones available for most teams.
 
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Friedman:
"...But I haven’t heard his name with Toronto. It doesn’t mean anything, they’re pretty good at being secretive, "

So Andy in St. Louis would have to get his leaks through the Blues.
 
The Podium said:
You keep repeating that advanced analytics is synonymous with soft. Tom Wilson is actually a solid player and the analytics show it.

View attachment 645454

The difference between “the Corsi crowd” and you is we want players who can play and not fizzle out when they get here.
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To be fair to the other guy, Tom Wilson is also not a traditional analytics poster boy being 6'4" and having a massive eye test presence as a terror on the ice.

Isn't the exercise usually a Moneyball adjacent exercise to find a completely overlooked player who gives you outsized impact?
 
Stephen said:
To be fair to the other guy, Tom Wilson is also not a traditional analytics poster boy being 6'4" and having a massive eye test presence as a terror on the ice.

Isn't the exercise usually a Moneyball adjacent exercise to find a completely overlooked player who gives you outsized impact?
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You’re again just repeating misinformation. The traditional analytic poster boys are any good players. Physicality and size doesn’t make a player poor analytically. Being a bad player results in bad analytics.

Tom Wilson has good stats because he is a good player.
 
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rojac said:
Dubas will make his move when a piece he wants is available for a price he’s willing to pay. I don’t think he’s going to overpay or settle for someone he doesn’t really want just to get a deal done by a certain date.
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Wow! Extra points for stating the obvious :naughty:
 
The Podium said:
You’re again just repeating misinformation. The traditional analytic poster boys are good players. Physicality and size doesn’t make a player poor analytically. Being a bad player reflects in bad analytics.

Tom Wilson has good stats because he is a good player.
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Good players don't really require confirmation from analytics though. If a player is already popping as a quality player via eye test, plays on a successful team, produces a high volume, and is held in high value, you don't really need the extra data to tell you the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Go ahead, run the data but you're not getting extra insight.
 
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Stephen said:
Good players don't really require confirmation from analytics though. If a player is already popping as a quality player via eye test, plays on a successful team, produces a high volume, and is held in high value, you don't really need the extra data to tell you the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Go ahead, run the data but you're not getting extra insight.
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You’re right but inherent biases, players who are gifted great opportunities or put in difficult position may unfairly appear good or bad to the eye test.

The analytics are just another tool to help decipher which players may be outperforming their capabilities or which may be underperforming. It doesn’t hurt to have as much information as possible to evaluate a player.

There is a reason why anyone who follows analytics repeatedly say “in combination with the eye test”, yet that always seems to be ignored.

If you still have your doubts, give me a list of powerforwards and I will show you how they perform analytically.
 
kb said:
They will have to factor in the over 35 bonuses for both Bergeron and Krejci next season.....if you are talking this season, sure....well set up. But they will have to blow it up next season. This is the end of being an elite team for them.


The US still requires vax.....but there is talk of lifting it April 23rd...?
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And they need to sign Pasta10 min
 
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The Podium said:
You’re right but inherent biases, players who are gifted great opportunities or put in difficult position may unfairly appear good or bad to the eye test.

The analytics are just another tool to help decipher which players may be outperforming their capabilities or which may be underperforming. It doesn’t hurt to have as much information as possible to evaluate a player.

There is a reason why anyone who follows analytics repeatedly say “in combination with the eye test”, yet that always seems to be ignored.

If you still have your doubts, give me a list of powerforwards and I will show you how they perform analytically.
Click to expand...
The Podium said:
You’re right but inherent biases, players who are gifted great opportunities or put in difficult position may unfairly appear good or bad to the eye test.

The analytics are just another tool to help decipher which players may be outperforming their capabilities or which may be underperforming. It doesn’t hurt to have as much information as possible to evaluate a player.

There is a reason why anyone who follows analytics repeatedly say “in combination with the eye test”, yet that always seems to be ignored.

If you still have your doubts, give me a list of powerforwards and I will show you how they perform analytically.
Click to expand...

Well, I’m not putting the tool on trial, I’m just saying you’re not necessarily demonstrating the power of it by citing conventionally valuable players that everyone already holds in high value like a Tom Wilson. Versus an Evan Rodrigues something that nobody valued at all a couple of years ago but seems to be a bit of a find.
 
McCabe I am liking more and more. Rounds out our D core well. I just want it to prevent us from getting a forward or two
 
Bertuzzi and one of Lafferty/Comtois....and I'd be happy. Would be our Nick Paul/Hagel type of trade deadline.

Kerfoot needs to leave
 
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