Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

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That's bait.

Honestly, Boston had the superior high danger chances. Game was pretty even. Our brain farts were more glaring while their brain farts weren't as much.

We were the worst team last night and its not even close. Mirtle needs to learn to balance his objectivity and subjectivity a bit.
That’s why I don’t like these advanced stats. People who don’t watch the game and look at those stats think see we were better. According to some here I don’t think the leafs have played one bad game this season because the expected stats say we were better.
 
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Didn't score a lot game 7 doesn't mean struggle to score... the best way for leafs with so much pressure like toronto its winning the series before reach game #7... if leafs reach game 7, for sure pressure will be 4X higher... if they need to play game #7, they cant allow the 1st goal or the pressure will be X20 higher... if you giving up 1st goal + the opponent goalie is hot, the pressure will be X100...thats why leafs didn't score a lot, they need to play game 7 and always allowing the 1st goal...whatever the move they will, the pressure will stay there

Right now leafs waste their best offensive dman to play a shutdown role with brodie... so yes they need a defensive dman
Actually, they genuinely do struggle to score. It's not a game 7 issue, it's a back half of the series issue. I've posted about this before but here is the statistics on Leafs series since JT has joined (excluded 2020 as it's 5 games and does not fit the typical mold)

Games 1-4: 3.33 goals per game (40 in 12)
Games 1-4: 2.58 goals against per game (31 in 12)

Games 5-7: 2.11 goals per game (19 in 9)
Games 5-7: 3.22 goals against per game (29 in 9)

The offense starts hot and then completely falls apart as the series goes deep. The defense does falter as well, though not as significantly. Really, as the series goes deep and teams make adjustments we tend to decline.

I've actually been a fan of Nino since his time with the Wild and would be interested in a potential acquisition for him.

That said I'm not sure he's necessarily an upgrade on Kerfoot as far as the playoffs are concerned - one of the knocks against him is his quite post-seasons
Yeah looking at his numbers, 15-15-30 in 82 playoff games is below where he usually produces

With that said, I think Nino would've still added an element this team needs with his size and physicality even if he wasn't scoring as much as usual (still higher than Kerfoot's scoring in the playoffs though)

It feels like Kerfoot is one of the many utility players we employ. They're good individually but as a whole there's not enough diversity in the lineup
 
That's bait.

Honestly, Boston had the superior high danger chances. Game was pretty even. Our brain farts were more glaring while their brain farts weren't as much.

We were the worst team last night and its not even close. Mirtle needs to learn to balance his objectivity and subjectivity a bit.
There’s no question they had the better chances, apart from a nice pushback by us in the second. If the advanced stats suggest otherwise, then I’ll gladly defer to the eye on that game.
 
The highly paid forwards we have are going to have to figure out what it takes to score in the playoffs. There are lots of teams that would kill to have the talent up front that we have.

I don’t know how many times we’ve complained about how the defence played, or how the goalie let us down. Using our assets to acquire a couple of top four defenders would help strengthen our back end, and insulate our goaltender.

It doesn’t have to be Chychrun or McCabe either. I just put those two names out there. Getting two physical top four dmen, with one having a cannon from the point on the PP, would make this team infinitely better imo.
2 questions
How many goals have we scored in elimination games?
Bruins game 7- 1 goal
Jackets game 5- 0 goals
Montreal game 7- 1 goal
Tampa game 7- 1 goal
Do you trust our bottom 6 to score in a series?

Thats been our problem and still is. How about one defenceman and a forward. We don't need to keep adding d man and ignore the actual problem.
Whose complaining about our defence? The clueless media who lives in 2014?
 
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That’s why I don’t like these advanced stats. People who don’t watch the game and look at those stats think see we were better. According to some here I don’t think the leafs have played one bad game this season because the expected stats say we were better.
You can put it the other way. People who ignore advanced stats will believe the 2013 Leafs team was good. You need to watch the games and use the stats to help your view point. It's simple.
This is why the NHL is really a joke compared to the other main 3 sports. Those leagues have learned to use stats, while the NHL still is behind.
There are some really good teams who use advanced analytics and 2 of them are Carolina and Tampa.
The last part is just false accusations you're making

Do some folks go too far? Absolutely. However so do the people who say watch the games.
 
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Actually, they genuinely do struggle to score. It's not a game 7 issue, it's a back half of the series issue. I've posted about this before but here is the statistics on Leafs series since JT has joined (excluded 2020 as it's 5 games and does not fit the typical mold)

Games 1-4: 3.33 goals per game (40 in 12)
Games 1-4: 2.58 goals against per game (31 in 12)

Games 5-7: 2.11 goals per game (19 in 9)
Games 5-7: 3.22 goals against per game (29 in 9)

The offense starts hot and then completely falls apart as the series goes deep. The defense does falter as well, though not as significantly. Really, as the series goes deep and teams make adjustments we tend to decline.


Yeah looking at his numbers, 15-15-30 in 82 playoff games is below where he usually produces

With that said, I think Nino would've still added an element this team needs with his size and physicality even if he wasn't scoring as much as usual (still higher than Kerfoot's scoring in the playoffs though)

It feels like Kerfoot is one of the many utility players we employ. They're good individually but as a whole there's not enough diversity in the lineup
Game 5-6 2.67 (16 in 6)
Goal against 3.2 (19 in 6)

Game 7 goal for 1 ( 3 in 3)
Goal against 3 (9 in 3)

For nino 15-15-82 but 7-6-13 in 53 playoff game...

Kerfoot 4-12-16 last 37 game
 
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You can put it the other way. People who ignore advanced stats will believe the 2013 Leafs team was good. You need to watch the games and use the stats to help your view point. It's simple.
This is why the NHL is really a joke compared to the other main 3 sports. Those leagues have learned to use stats, while the NHL still is behind.
There are some really good teams who use advanced analytics and 2 of them are Carolina and Tampa.
The last part is just false accusations you're making

Do some folks go too far? Absolutely. However so do the people who say watch the games.

I think the advanced stats we have access to as the public is more for patreon stuff...I am sure Tampa / Carolina / Toronto use analytics we do not have.

Some of the analytics are all good but you need to know in your gut what it takes to build a winner. We do not have enough of the right type of guy. I have watched most playoff series in their entirety for many years but slacked a bit in the last couple but I compare our group to teams that went to final 4 or won the cup and we're just missing so many elements.
 
Tanner Jeannot is having a down season, he would be a great add while his value is low.
Swing for the fences? Grab both Jeannot and Ekholm

1st round pick
Kerfoot(salary)
Holmberg
Sandin
Hirvonen
 
You can put it the other way. People who ignore advanced stats will believe the 2013 Leafs team was good. You need to watch the games and use the stats to help your view point. It's simple.
This is why the NHL is really a joke compared to the other main 3 sports. Those leagues have learned to use stats, while the NHL still is behind.
There are some really good teams who use advanced analytics and 2 of them are Carolina and Tampa.
The last part is just false accusations you're making

Do some folks go too far? Absolutely. However so do the people who say watch the games.
Who watching that team thought they were good? They got out shot every game and while it was a joy over a long drought the team was lucky to make the playoffs in a shorten season.

The rest of your points are fair. Last point I exaggerated but it does feel like it after every lose.
 
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I think the advanced stats we have access to as the public is more for patreon stuff...I am sure Tampa / Carolina / Toronto use analytics we do not have.

Some of the analytics are all good but you need to know in your gut what it takes to build a winner. We do not have enough of the right type of guy. I have watched most playoff series in their entirety for many years but slacked a bit in the last couple but I compare our group to teams that went to final 4 or won the cup and we're just missing so many elements.
They are different way to win... leafs have to find their own way... but one thing every one if those team had in commun, they played really well defensivly and their goalie was clutch....

Colorado/ tampa/ stl/wsh/chi/ pitts/lak team who won the cup anyone of those team played the same way...

When washington won it, its probably the 1st year the big majority thought they had no chance to win it

When stl won it, couple of month earlier they was last in the league... no body saw this coming


When lak won his 1st cup, they came out of nowhere and lost only 4 game all playoff long...

Lak was about big physical defensive
Pittsburgh/ colorado/chicago was all about speed and playing really fast

Tampa, lak, stl, washington for about big physical game


was all about speed
 
Gio has played the 2nd most minutes among Leafs defenseman this year and 4th highest TOI/GP. Krejci is 5th among Bruins forwards in TOI/GP and 7th in total TOI. I'd say Gio has been just as vital.
Because the Leafs have missed the most man games of any team.

You really don't think they wanted to play him that much. Gio's play has cratered badly the last several weeks.

Ya, that was.....something.
 
That's bait.

Honestly, Boston had the superior high danger chances. Game was pretty even. Our brain farts were more glaring while their brain farts weren't as much.

We were the worst team last night and its not even close. Mirtle needs to learn to balance his objectivity and subjectivity a bit.
He probably thought they were the better team against Ottawa as well. At least now we know where these guys get their hilarious takes from.
 
2 questions
How many goals have we scored in elimination games?
Bruins game 7- 1 goal
Jackets game 5- 0 goals
Montreal game 7- 1 goal
Tampa game 7- 1 goal
Do you trust our bottom 6 to score in a series?

Thats been our problem and still is. How about one defenceman and a forward. We don't need to keep adding d man and ignore the actual problem.
Whose complaining about our defence? The clueless media who lives in 2014?
Yes, I agree that it’s a problem. How many big money forwards do we need to bring in, before they can produce in the playoffs???

The problem isn’t that we don’t have enough firepower in our top six. The problem is that they are not performing as they are being paid to perform. It’s on them to straighten that out, imo.

One forward and one dman could be the answer.

Reshaping the third line and bringing in say, Toews, and a RW’er like Barbashev for example. With Knies as the LW’er on that line, perhaps that could be the answer?

Or you could load up heavy on defence and limit the high risk chances; push back when opponents try to take liberties after the whistle in scrums in front of the net; and hopefully add a defenseman who has a clapper on the point to upgrade the look of our PP. Perhaps that can be the answer?

I think Dubas has some really tough decisions to make. Hopefully he doesn’t try to go with half measures this time around. This time, he has to go big or go home!
 
That’s why I don’t like these advanced stats. People who don’t watch the game and look at those stats think see we were better. According to some here I don’t think the leafs have played one bad game this season because the expected stats say we were better.

I promise you that the people referencing these advanced stats watch *significantly* more hockey than the people who are idiotically opposed to them (like yourself).
 
Tanner Jeannot is having a down season, he would be a great add while his value is low.
Swing for the fences? Grab both Jeannot and Ekholm

1st round pick
Kerfoot(salary)
Holmberg
Sandin
Hirvonen
I’d guess that a good Jeannot trade comparable would be the Hartman trade to Nashville.

1st+C prospect+4th for Hartman+5th
 
Honestly, Boston had the superior high danger chances.
Leafs had more shots, corsi, fenwick, scoring chances, high danger chances, and expected goals, both when the first goal was scored (in "neutral time"), and at the end of the game.
Game was pretty even.
We were the worst team last night and its not even close. Mirtle needs to learn to balance his objectivity and subjectivity a bit.
Putting aside the contradiction in those two statements, it is objectively untrue that "we were the worst team last night and it's not even close". The only thing that was "worse and it's not even close" was our goaltending.
 
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He probably thought they were the better team against Ottawa as well. At least now we know where these guys get their hilarious takes from.
but but but butt the deserve to win'o'meter had the leafs winning 60%+ of the times after 1000 simulations

That's the real score
 
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People who don’t watch the game and look at those stats think see we were better. According to some here I don’t think the leafs have played one bad game this season because the expected stats say we were better.
People who utilize things beyond exclusively an extremely flawed eye test watch the games, and probably watch more hockey overall than you ever will. Of course the Leafs have played bad games. We have games where we have worse expected goals, including some games we've won.

Let's say two teams have exactly identical chances. If team A has their shot hit off a butt and go top corner for a goal, and team B has their shot deflect off a butt and hit the knob of the goalie's stick and into the stands, the casual viewer's eye test will conclude that team A's chance was massively better than team B's identical chance. Scoring events often carry much more weight in our minds and memory than the actual events that led to them deserve. It's just natural human bias that some people can't accept they have.
 
People who utilize things beyond exclusively an extremely flawed eye test watch the games, and probably watch more hockey overall than you ever will. Of course the Leafs have played bad games. We have games where we have worse expected goals, including some games we've won.

Let's say two teams have exactly identical chances. If team A has their shot hit off a butt and go top corner for a goal, and team B has their shot deflect off a butt and hit the knob of the goalie's stick and into the stands, the casual viewer's eye test will conclude that team A's chance was massively better than team B's identical chance. Scoring events often carry much more weight in our minds and memory than the actual events that led to them deserve. It's just natural human bias that some people can't accept they have.
the issue here is, no one gives a f*** about how they played. The only thing that matters is the score at the end. How many more moral victories in playoff series will it take for people to realize that the only thing that matters is the score at the end of the game and sometimes you just need to do w.e it takes to get it done.

Also against boston - we were stymied in the second and that third we controlled play and let stinkers but can be explained by score effects.

There's no way you watch that game and come out with , yep we were better.
 
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the issue here is, no one gives a f*** about how they played. The only thing that matters is the score at the end. How many more moral victories in playoff series will it take for people to realize that the only thing that matters is the score at the end of the game and sometimes you just need to do w.e it takes to get it done.

Also against boston - we were stymied in the second and that third we controlled play and let stinkers but can be explained by score effects.

There's no way you watch that game and come out with , yep we were better.
Even worse to watch that Ottawa massacre and come away with the Leafs being the better team that night.
There is a big difference between watching and understanding what you're seeing.
 
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the issue here is, no one gives a f*** about how they played. The only thing that matters is the score at the end. How many more moral victories in playoff series will it take for people to realize that the only thing that matters is the score at the end of the game and sometimes you just need to do w.e it takes to get it done.

Also against boston - we were stymied in the second and that third we controlled play and let stinkers but can be explained by score effects.

There's no way you watch that game and come out with , yep we were better.

My eyeball test said the game was determined by 2 players.
 
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