Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

[SeaOfBlue]

This last off-season confirmed what I have thought for a while now that this management group are not serious about winning. They want to win, but as long as it is with “their” guys.

Muzzin, Kerfoot, Holl for picks gives us a significant amount of cap space to reshape the team without moving a core 4. But Dubas and co. aren’t looking to move off their favourites.

NTC or no NTC, Tampa didn’t hesitate to tell McDonagh to find a new team and thanks for your service. That’s the difference in management groups.

While it is still very early, Tampa has been absolute trash defensively so far this year. So why are we exactly suggesting that this was a good move or one that suggests we should have done the same with Muzzin right now? Especially when we were nowhere near as desperate to do so as Tampa.

If Tampa struggles to defend all year because they traded away a top 4 defenseman and didn't replace him properly, then what?

Continuing on that, who do you have replacing Muzzin and Holl? Not very easy when a lot of Holl comparables are getting 4+ mill contracts in UFA and there are practically no Muzzin replacements out there. Sandin is not ready for that kind of responsibility. Teams are not trading those caliber of players very often. A lot of the ones moved this past year (i.e. Burns and Petry) were older with bad, inflated contracts that their respective teams mostly just wanted to dump. Marino was probably the best option, but are we comfortable moving Sandin+ to get him (assuming PIT liked him as much as Ty Smith)?

Right now, our defense is not even the problem. We are scoring less than 3 goals per game. Fix that first, and everything else probably starts looking a lot better too.

 

[Jozay]

Yeah i dont think muzzin is ready for that type of responsibility either lol

 

[Duke16]

Unrelated to the recent discussions, but I think it's probable that Malgin is going to find himself on the outs here pretty quickly.

I wouldn't even say he's been bad, but just kind of a non-factor. In the Preseason he was a controlled entry beast and could create from there. Now, a lot of those pucks are just going deep and unrecovered (by him) once he gains the blue line. There is nothing dynamic about his regular season play.

I think Robertson has a real opportunity to come in and run with a job here, especially considering we're only averaging three goals a game here early on.

As for the trickle down effect of that, maybe Malgin is eventually moved for that depth D once he's clearly going to be a scratch and a guy like Anderson actually sticks in the org all year instead of being depth swapped. You'd still have Gaudette, Steeves, Holmberg, Anderson, Abruzzese, McMann etc as that next wave of depth (Simmonds move still factored in)

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yeah i dont think muzzin is ready for that type of responsibility either lol

It is kind of funny. As bad as he has looked, it is actually Rielly (and to an extent Brodie) who have had the much more crooked number.

Rielly has been on the ice for 6.9 GA/60 at ES against a 3.06 xGA/60. Brodie has 4.9 GA/60 against a 2.29. Both of their GF% are in the 20's right now, even though both of their xGF% are above 50% (Brodie above 60%). Both get easier matchups too so that has got to change (and likely will, since a save percentage below 80% is nowhere near what they should be getting right now).

Muzzin and Holl have respectable rates hovering around 2.5 xGA/60. Muzzin has a GA/60 hovering around 2, and Holl is under 2. Holl has a GF% of 60% and Muzzin is at 50%. However, both have xGA/60 below 50% (but not by much) because they don't generate much offensively and get the toughest defensive matchups. They have made some mistakes on the PK which have cost us of course, and both special teams, while not bad, can certainly be better. Faceoffs are also the same.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Unrelated to the recent discussions, but I think it's probable that Malgin is going to find himself on the outs here pretty quickly.

I wouldn't even say he's been bad, but just kind of a non-factor. In the Preseason he was a controlled entry beast and could create from there. Now, a lot of those pucks are just going deep and unrecovered (by him) once he gains the blue line. There is nothing dynamic about his regular season play.

I think Robertson has a real opportunity to come in and run with a job here, especially considering we're only averaging three goals a game here early on.

As for the trickle down effect of that, maybe Malgin is eventually moved for that depth D once he's clearly going to be a scratch and a guy like Anderson actually sticks in the org all year instead of being depth swapped. You'd still have Gaudette, Steeves, Holmberg, Anderson, Abruzzese, McMann etc as that next wave of depth (Simmonds move still factored in)

It is actually interesting...

Tavares-Nylander with Malgin at ES: 2GF, 0GA, 55xGF% in 31 minutes.
Tavares-Nylander without Malgin at ES: 0GF, 2GA, 49xGF% in 12 minutes.

Once again may just be crooked numbers, but MUCH bigger fish to fry.

 

[Stephen]

It is actually interesting...

Tavares-Nylander with Malgin at ES: 2GF, 0GA, 55xGF% in 31 minutes.
Tavares-Nylander without Malgin at ES: 0GF, 2GA, 49xGF% in 12 minutes.

Once again may just be crooked numbers, but MUCH bigger fish to fry.

Malgin seems very vanilla, but I could see him falling to scapegoat/sacrificial lamb territory since organizationally the Leafs are pretty locked into their guys. It's only the goalies and very fringes of the roster that really feel the heat.

 

[Leaffan1991]

Which D are available? Muzzin will probably be out long term so we need a replacement and Holl needs to be replaced by Lilly

 

[Stephen]

While it is still very early, Tampa has been absolute trash defensively so far this year. So why are we exactly suggesting that this was a good move or one that suggests we should have done the same with Muzzin right now? Especially when we were nowhere near as desperate to do so as Tampa.

If Tampa struggles to defend all year because they traded away a top 4 defenseman and didn't replace him properly, then what?

Continuing on that, who do you have replacing Muzzin and Holl? Not very easy when a lot of Holl comparables are getting 4+ mill contracts in UFA and there are practically no Muzzin replacements out there. Sandin is not ready for that kind of responsibility. Teams are not trading those caliber of players very often. A lot of the ones moved this past year (i.e. Burns and Petry) were older with bad, inflated contracts that their respective teams mostly just wanted to dump. Marino was probably the best option, but are we comfortable moving Sandin+ to get him (assuming PIT liked him as much as Ty Smith)?

Right now, our defense is not even the problem. We are scoring less than 3 goals per game. Fix that first, and everything else probably starts looking a lot better too.

Tampa trading McDonagh isn't about a positive upgrade for them so much an example of a GM working through a NTC on a very entrenched veteran player, similar standing to Muzzin, which has been presented as an impossibility.

They had to move on from McDonagh partially because of the new Point contract (this year) and Sergachev (next year). It's a tough move but GM's are tasked with making tough moves.

For the Leafs, moving Muzzin proactively would have been about clearing cap space and finding cap dollars to reorganize the middle of the roster in the offseason. That ship has sailed and soon we might have close to $10 million in LTIR in Murray and Muzzin out.

 

[Fogelhund]

Which D are available? Muzzin will probably be out long term so we need a replacement and Holl needs to be replaced by Lilly

By out long-term, I honestly wonder if that's lights out for Muzzin's career.

Chychrun of course is the name everyone knows is available. He's not a Muzzin replacement, that's for sure, and is also injured a lot. Chychrun is kind of like a Rielly lite, which given our defensive struggles, isn't ideal.

I'd call Columbus and ask them what the cost would be for Peeke and Jenner. Columbus is a tire fire right now... I doubt either guy is available to be honest, but if we could grab them, they would compliment our team wonderfully. The cost wouldn't be low though, that much is for sure.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

By out long-term, I honestly wonder if that's lights out for Muzzin's career.

Chychrun of course is the name everyone knows is available. He's not a Muzzin replacement, that's for sure, and is also injured a lot. Chychrun is kind of like a Rielly lite, which given our defensive struggles, isn't ideal.

I'd call Columbus and ask them what the cost would be for Peeke and Jenner. Columbus is a tire fire right now... I doubt either guy is available to be honest, but if we could grab them, they would compliment our team wonderfully. The cost wouldn't be low though, that much is for sure.

The play would probably be to move Sandin to LD and give him and let him and Gio split the responsibilities. Brodie, Holl, and Liljegren are the RD.

Use some of the forward depth to find an under-the-radar #7 who has the potential to outplay his slotting and let Mete + Kral have a fair shake in there too when there are injuries.

Revisit it at the TDL and maybe add some bulk or an upgrade at that point if we need it.

 

[Puckstuff]

Leafs need to replace Murray, Muzzin and Keefe ASAP. Break up Tavares-Nylander, call up Robertson and push forward. No time for messing around this year.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Leafs need to replace Murray, Muzzin and Keefe ASAP. Break up Tavares-Nylander, call up Robertson and push forward. No time for messing around this year.

I’d suggest they start with reconfiguring their PP with a point shot threat. Rielly is not capable of releasing a one timer from the point and teams know that and simply play the pass against us, jamming our lanes. Sandin was one timing last year with some success.

I think Nylander / JT has been good, but 3rd line hasn’t done much, Bunting doesn’t looks great, and we are very soft on the blue line and within our top 9.

 

[TMLAM34]

Leafs need to replace Murray, Muzzin and Keefe ASAP. Break up Tavares-Nylander, call up Robertson and push forward. No time for messing around this year.

The first line hasn’t really been clicking. I wouldn’t mind putting Nylander with Matthews and Marner with Tavares for 5 or so games to see if that reignites chemistry. You can always put Matthews and Marner together after penalty kills, obviously on the powerplay and late in games.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I’d suggest they start with reconfiguring their PP with a point shot threat. Rielly is not capable of releasing a one timer from the point and teams know that and simply play the pass against us, jamming our lanes. Sandin was one timing last year with some success.

I think Nylander / JT has been good, but 3rd line hasn’t done much, Bunting doesn’t looks great, and we are very soft on the blue line and within our top 9.

Won't matter. Leafs don't use their defenseman on the PP regardless of how much of a point threat people think they are.

 

[Joseph Nathan]

By out long-term, I honestly wonder if that's lights out for Muzzin's career.

Chychrun of course is the name everyone knows is available. He's not a Muzzin replacement, that's for sure, and is also injured a lot. Chychrun is kind of like a Rielly lite, which given our defensive struggles, isn't ideal.

I'd call Columbus and ask them what the cost would be for Peeke and Jenner. Columbus is a tire fire right now... I doubt either guy is available to be honest, but if we could grab them, they would compliment our team wonderfully. The cost wouldn't be low though, that much is for sure.

Neither of what you wrote is even realistic. Columbus isn't trading their captain in Boone who was just given an extension. They also aren't trading peeke who they just gave an extension to.

 

[Fogelhund]

Neither of what you wrote is even realistic. Columbus isn't trading their captain in Boone who was just given an extension. They also aren't trading peeke who they just gave an extension to.

As I said, I doubt either guy is available, but no harm in asking. Peeke is the kind of guy that we should be looking for, or as @SeaOfBlue suggests, an under the radar guy who could become that type of guy, or maybe a Muzzin one day. A young physical D, who could be with the org for years. We could use a Jenner type C as well, physical guy, good at faceoffs, who could play a 3C role. It's kind of more a blueprint, than an absolute on those two guys in particular.

 

[RAM]

This team is way too soft. you really need to rethink how this team is built we need to get meaner more aggressive and even out the cap more. you have to keep Tavares (because of contract) and Matthews everyone else is tradable

 

[dubplatepressure]

Won't matter. Leafs don't use their defenseman on the PP regardless of how much of a point threat people think they are.

... with Rielly as the sole D back there. Been the same for years. Chicken and egg thing, but I believe they don't use him because he's not terribly useful, within reason. Anyone can dish a pass to one of the wingers on either side of the high circle - that's all he does, repeatedly. So they expect that and don't use him for anything except what he's useful for.

They aren't good at one-timing the puck either, so the dish across to the high-circle winger rarely results in a quick shot, and often both the passing lane(s) and the shooting lane(s) are already blocked from anticipation, so they end up throwing it around up high too often. They need that point shot IMO.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

... with Rielly as the sole D back there. Been the same for years. Chicken and egg thing, but I believe they don't use him because he's not terribly useful, within reason. Anyone can dish a pass to one of the wingers on either side of the high circle - that's all he does, repeatedly. So they expect that and don't use him for anything except what he's useful for.

They aren't good at one-timing the puck either, so the dish across to the high-circle winger rarely results in a quick shot, and often both the passing lane(s) and the shooting lane(s) are already blocked from anticipation, so they end up throwing it around up high too often. They need that point shot IMO.

It was the same with Barrie, Gio, and Sandin up there too. Obviously smaller sample size, but there is no reason to believe it will change with a different guy. It has to be a systemic change. The coaches are telling these defensemen to be inactive and to let the forwards do all of the work. It has been the same with different head coaches, GM's, and PP coaches too so who knows who is responsible for that decision.

Goals are not scored very often from the point. The vast majority of high producing defensemen deploy in the circles and score a lot of their goals on the PP. We are never doing that unless we have a natural rotation of everyone and a defenseman just ends up there (Rielly has scored more than a few like that himself). Some, like Makar, like the high slot (effectively a bit higher than where we put our bumper), but we would need to change our deployment to make that work properly (likely having two net front guys like Colorado often has). These defensemen are also often not taking one-timers. They are taking purposeful shots after handling the puck (sometimes slap shots, but mostly just wristers or shots they expect to be tipped or redirected in front) and I full endorse Rielly or any other defenseman we have doing that when it makes sense.

Rielly is more than capable of being a dangerous threat from the point if he was able to do that because he has proven he is capable of doing it at ES... Which ironically is the polar opposite behaviour of our PP. Rielly was T-16 in the league in goals at ES last year with 8 (among some guys with some pretty good shots) and his total chances were also in the top 15 in the league. I already pointed out that all of our defensemen are near the bottom of the league in chances on the PP. As you can imagine, a lot of Rielly's shots and especially goals were not one-timers from the blueline. Heck, a lot of them were not any kind of shot from the blueline. It is typically not a shot you take if you have any expectation to score, and it is no different for anyone else in the league. The furthest away you can realistically expect a shot to be truly dangerous is at the top of the circles, and we don't put our defensemen there very often on the PP.

We will see if they adjust, but it has never been adjusted in 6 years with a bunch of changes so I doubt it will be adjusted now.

 

[Havoc]

Won't matter. Leafs don't use their defenseman on the PP regardless of how much of a point threat people think they are.

Don't or can't.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Don't or can't.

Don't.

 

[TMLAM34]

If Vancouver keeps sliding, I wonder what the cost for Horvat would be?

 

[WTFMAN99]

If Vancouver keeps sliding, I wonder what the cost for Horvat would be?

1st+

Shouldn't remotely be available unless we really improve.

 

[dubplatepressure]

It was the same with Barrie, Gio, and Sandin up there too. Obviously smaller sample size, but there is no reason to believe it will change with a different guy. It has to be a systemic change. The coaches are telling these defensemen to be inactive and to let the forwards do all of the work. It has been the same with different head coaches, GM's, and PP coaches too so who knows who is responsible for that decision.

Goals are not scored very often from the point. The vast majority of high producing defensemen deploy in the circles and score a lot of their goals on the PP. We are never doing that unless we have a natural rotation of everyone and a defenseman just ends up there (Rielly has scored more than a few like that himself). Some, like Makar, like the high slot (effectively a bit higher than where we put our bumper), but we would need to change our deployment to make that work properly (likely having two net front guys like Colorado often has). These defensemen are also often not taking one-timers. They are taking purposeful shots after handling the puck (sometimes slap shots, but mostly just wristers or shots they expect to be tipped or redirected in front) and I full endorse Rielly or any other defenseman we have doing that when it makes sense.

Rielly is more than capable of being a dangerous threat from the point if he was able to do that because he has proven he is capable of doing it at ES... Which ironically is the polar opposite behaviour of our PP. Rielly was T-16 in the league in goals at ES last year with 8 (among some guys with some pretty good shots) and his total chances were also in the top 15 in the league. I already pointed out that all of our defensemen are near the bottom of the league in chances on the PP. As you can imagine, a lot of Rielly's shots and especially goals were not one-timers from the blueline. Heck, a lot of them were not any kind of shot from the blueline. It is typically not a shot you take if you have any expectation to score, and it is no different for anyone else in the league. The furthest away you can realistically expect a shot to be truly dangerous is at the top of the circles, and we don't put our defensemen there very often on the PP.

We will see if they adjust, but it has never been adjusted in 6 years with a bunch of changes so I doubt it will be adjusted now.

Oh I agree with you there - the system absolutely needs to change too. But right now we don't even represent a threat of a strong point shot. I'm not necessarily expecting goals from it - but traffic, chaos down low, and to open the other lanes back up. IIRC Sandin had a pretty good one timer and we saw that last year a couple of times on the PP, and so did Muzz the odd time he was trotted out there.

You could still be right though and god knows what they're trying to teach in terms of system. I used to get so upset as seeing them line up on their weak side out there on the PP eliminating any chance at a one timer... just couldn't figure that out.

 

[crowsnestmcgee]

We need chych