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44 is Rielly good
Not saying they've been good, but I believe our 4th line has gotten almost no offensive zone starts which would have a big impact on expected goals.
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Not saying they've been good, but I believe our 4th line has gotten almost no offensive zone starts which would have a big impact on expected goals.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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Even accounting for that... It is unacceptable.
TBH, if they wanted to get Robertson in the lineup, they should have sat one of ZAR or NAK and then demoted Engvall to the 4th line if they wanted to send a message.
It is stupid for them to sit Engvall or Malgin when that 4th line has been atrocious in like 3/4 of the games.
Simmonds should not be in the lineup.
Interestingly if you sort the leaf forwards by highest to lowest offensive zone faceoff or start percetage you get a pretty damn similar order. Kerfoot being the big exception.
The 4th line is at 15% offensive zone starts/faceoffs while the top line is getting like 75+% offensive starts/faceoffs. It would be very hard to get a positive xGF with that type of usage and even harder if your looking at a relative to team stat like that.
justashadowof
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- Aug 15, 2020
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Playing games with these numbers by attaching the same mode of measurement on checking/energy lines that they use on scoring lines is either disingenuous or foolish. It's almost like they are unwilling to recognize that the role for each line is different. It's a hopelessly simpleminded approach to a team sport. Attempt to apply this sort of metric across the lineup of a soccer team or a football team where roles are more specialized then we see how foolish it is.
IMO all of this advanced stats stuff started and should have mostly ended with baseball where matchups between pitchers and batters are largely (but not wholly) isolated events making comparisons between all players in all lineups mostly valid. Once it was brought over to the chaotic cauldrons of constantly switching and swapping matchups that take place during the course of games with other team sports like hockey and basketball, these sorts of measures become too complex to isolate and compare. So what they do is pretend that they're isolated when they are not.
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Connor Murphy is definitely someone Dubas should target, I’ve mentioned his name for years now around these boards as the perfect partner for Morgan Rielly. The cost won’t be cheap, Chicago even in a rebuild really value what Connor Murphy brings to their organization on and off the ice.
Community
44 is Rielly good
Disagree.
There are many times when advanced stats help differentiat players better than standard stats. The problem is people not knowing what they're doing and grabbing random advanced stats that suit their argument OR just picking out numbers that stand out without figuring out if there are other contributions.
I rarely post advanced stats because I haven't taken enough time to break down when most are useful or not... However, it's easy to see the flaws in them/missing information when they're being used improperly.
I'm not saying that Fogelhund is right or wrong, but that is cherry picking stats... It's like saying, for example, that Nylander would be as good as Bergeron if they put up the same point totals this year... it might be true, but it's ignoring a huge part of the equation and you can use other stats to help fill in that gap.
Community
44 is Rielly good
Sure, they look bad in this context, but it's not the entire story. I'm not saying they've been good or bad, just that the stats are missing a lot of information (zone starts, opposition, limited minutes, etc.).
Maybe if somebody added the other context it looks the same or is different, but it's not wise to judge just based on this one stat alone.
I agree in theory with Engvall being demoted to the 4th line if Robetson comes in, but I think our 4th line has more to offer than what we've seen so far.
If Vancouver continues to slide and Toronto not fully playing up to par, I wonder if a swap of Kerfoot for Pearson would interest both teams.
Leafs won’t be able to re-sign Kerfoot. He’ll probably get 4.5+ million on the open market. He’s from Vancouver and will probably have interest in signing there also. Pearson is big, knows how to use his body and can chip in offensively from time to time. Doubt Vancouver would want to retain any of Pearson’s salary but if they did that would be great.
Fogelhund
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While everyone is focused on Holl as being terrible on D, I honestly think the biggest problem is really Mo.
Holl makes some big blunders, and it's easy to see them, yet he is consistently one of our better PK guys, and one of he better guys Even strength in GA/60....
I don't know that bringing in a different partner for Mo is the answer. We've been trying to do that for years, and consistently haven't found the right guy... He needs a defense only guy, who will try and cover up his blunders. At some point, maybe we realize that Mo IS the problem.
I appreciate the optics on trading Mo would be difficult, particularly after an extension, but let's be honest, he can't defend very well, and that's been a problematic area for us.
I do wonder, what it would take to obtain Chychrun and Murphy, moving out Holl and Mo. I think we'd be further ahead.
Holl makes some big blunders, and it's easy to see them, yet he is consistently one of our better PK guys, and one of he better guys Even strength in GA/60....
I don't know that bringing in a different partner for Mo is the answer. We've been trying to do that for years, and consistently haven't found the right guy... He needs a defense only guy, who will try and cover up his blunders. At some point, maybe we realize that Mo IS the problem.
I appreciate the optics on trading Mo would be difficult, particularly after an extension, but let's be honest, he can't defend very well, and that's been a problematic area for us.
I do wonder, what it would take to obtain Chychrun and Murphy, moving out Holl and Mo. I think we'd be further ahead.
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Mo is not being moved after signing for less than market value and getting a NMC. In hindsight would it have been better to sign Tanev instead of Brodie or both ??
Fogelhund
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Ya, I understand how hard it would be to move him... but really, that is where the biggest problem is. It really always has been, but we've put up with it, because of the offensive side. Four games in, and he's minus 5, and much of that really is on him (as bad as that stat normally is).
Brodie is a good D man, but he's not effective enough as a pure shut down, babysitter type.
If Muzzin can't play, or is ineffective, we have some big problems here. We both need a Muzzin type replacement, and a Rielly babysitter who can be effective. I don't know if there is such a beast that would do both.
Is Connor Murphy that guy? You tell me....
Edit... actually, if Muzzin can't play, that might allow us to actually address the Rielly D partner situation, and also move Holl at the same time. It's kind of like a get out of jail free card, and double win at the same time... and I wish no harm on Muzzin in the least... I actually really hope that these concussion/neck/back issues don't affect his post career life, and that's seriously got to be the big question right now.
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Should also have traded for Bennett instead of Foligno. Should also have signed Perry instead of Simmonds. Sigh.
No retained
It wouldnt even be for what kerfoot brings.. its the expiring contract
Lol.. yeah
If we were in on the bennett stuff.. i dont know
Fogelhund
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Would Bennett have been available at the time? Yes, agree on Perry... hindsight though right?
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Bennett
- 2021-Apr-12 Traded from Calgary Flames with round 6 pick in the 2022 draft (Gustav Karlsson) to Florida Panthers for Emil Heineman and round 2 pick in the 2022 draft (David Goyette)
| 2020-21 | Florida Panthers | NHL | 10 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 2021-22 | Florida Panthers | NHL | 71 | 28 | 21 | 49 | 74 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 2022-23 | Florida Panthers | NHL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 |
For those that said he was trash, he has 35g and 31a in 84 games as a Panther.
Foligno
- 2021-Apr-11 Traded from Columbus Blue Jackets to San Jose Sharks for round 1 pick in the 2021 draft (Corson Ceulemans) and round 4 pick in the 2022 draft (Dennis Hildeby)
- 2021-Apr-11 Traded from San Jose Sharks to Toronto Maple Leafs for round 4 pick in the 2021 draft (Ethan Cardwell)
SeaOfBlue
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I am fully aware of the context. I am saying even with that context, they are playing really bad.
Nobody, even with that many zone starts and that kind of role, should be getting caved in that much. They have a 36% CF%. They have an xGF% of 27%.
If you want context, Kampf had the same sort of role and zone starts last year and his CF% was 50 and his xGF% was 54%. He did do better than I think you can realistically expect, but anyone suited for that role should still be at least in the mid-high 40's in both of those things at the very least (and mid-40's is still in the danger zone).
Obviously, as is the case with anything, it has only been 4 games. But after only 4 games, we are seeing guys who have performed much better than the 4th line getting taken out of the lineup altogether (Malgin and possibly Engvall) when the 4th line guys have been downright trash.
Missing out on Bennett was a huge miss. He’s literally the exact type of player we need on our roster.
Tufted Titmouse
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Agreed.
Nylander - AM - Marner
Jarnkrok - Tavares - Malgin
Bunting - Kerfoot - Robertson
ZAR - Kampf - Engvall
Fogelhund
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For some reason, I was thinking of Marchment... my bad.
Good on Florida for taking that risk on the player. He was garbage with Calgary. He worked out though. A first for a guy who had a season with 12 points in 52 games, and 27 points in 72 games the year before... that takes some balls, as it really didn't look like he was worth it.
The guy in that situation right now is Comtois... if you want a parallel.
and while we are picking apart the team, the fourth line has been absolute garbage.... and it's early on in the season. ZAR has been the biggest problem on that line. NAK isn't much better though. I mean, these guys are running around hitting people, but generally being bad at hockey otherwise. Complete black holes offensively, which was kind of expected, yet letting in quite a few, and having terrible Corsi and Fenwick... not just bad, terrible.
If I was coaching, both guys sit, while Robertson and Wayne play... Robertson to the 2nd or 3rd line, 4th line with Engvall, Kampf and Simmonds.
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
I was not expecting much from NAK and ZAR but they have only been given 6+ minutes. Some think they should have been given more ice time vs Zona because the other lines were not doing much.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
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Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Malgin/Robertson - Tavares - Nylander
Malgin/Robertson - Kerfoot - Jarnkrok
Engvall - Kampf - NAK/ZAR
Is how I would have done it personally. Tavares-Nylander have been strong together. I would have kept Malgin with them and let Robertson go to a line where he would have been more of the focal point but I would have trusted Keefe's decision either way. I think you give the top line some more time to start converting and gaining their focus. The underlying numbers for them have been a lot better than the conversion rates and eye-test.
Seems like Keefe is just doing a straight Robertson for Malgin swap, which will solve absolutely nothing if that is what he intended to do. Seems like this is nothing more than a goodwill gesture for Robertson to play against his brother.
At least Simmonds is not playing.
Fogelhund
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The fourth line shouldn’t be getting big minutes, unless we have a huge lead. I’m fine with zero offensive output, just shut the other guys down.
I think a message need to be sent. Nothing more.
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