Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

[Sypher04]

I can't have us as favorites against the Bruins until we get the jobs done

No one's stopping the Bruins PP on this team, our goaltending isn't elite enough to bail out the Bruins elite PP and that's what cost us in 2019 with a great Andersen. Bruins also generate a lot of PPs too

Leafs big 4 also have struggled vs the Bruins in the past. Bergeron + Krejci won't be easy matchup to dominate.

Will be similar to Toronto/Tampa last year.

Boston Having McAvoy whose a top 5D is going to make one of JT/Matthews life hell

Will come to Bruins second line vs our second line as the top lines probably get neutralized at 5v5

I don’t disagree with some of the concerns, although some I think are stretches.

Bostons PP torched us with Andersen when the Leafs were a poor defensive team with thin D, and lousy special teams. Our team D and PK has dramatically improved since. And even that year, the historically bad PK was basically the entire reason the series was lost.

Bergeron and Kreijci are still good players, but not to the level they once were.

McAcoy as a top 5 D is also generous, but not by a ton so I’ll let you have it.

Also the Bruins goaltending isn’t worldbeating by any stretch anymore either. Swayman has been good to start his career, but he’s not Rask.

Not to mention Boston simply doesn’t play the same physically aggressive game they used to, and IF they did, we’ve adapted to playing that kind of team.

 

[hamzarocks]

I don’t disagree with some of the concerns, although some I think are stretches.

Bostons PP torched Andersen when the Leafs were a poor defensive team with thin D, and lousy special teams. Our team D and PK has dramatically improved since. And even that year, the PK was basically the entire reason the series was lost.

Bergeron and Kreijci are still good players, but not to the level they once were.

McAcoy as a top 5 D is also generous, but not by a ton so I’ll let you have it.

Also the Bruins goaltending isn’t worldbeating by any stretch anymore either. Swayman has been good to start his career, but he’s not Rask.

That's fair

I have the Bruins as slight favourites so something like 52% to 48%

But could see it as 55-45 Leafs if we go in hot and Bruins older guys show visible signs of decline

My original post was more so that Leafs aren't playing Buffalo lol but Boston.

We won't be sweeping the Bruins. It'll be a tough series which hopefully we win.

 

[Sypher04]

That's fair

I have the Bruins as slight favourites so something like 52% to 48%

But could see it as 55-45 Leafs if we go in hot and Bruins older guys show visible signs of decline

My original post was more so that Leafs aren't playing Buffalo lol but Boston.

We won't be sweeping the Bruins. It'll be a tough series which hopefully we win.

Yeah a sweep should definitely not be expected. Sweeps should honestly never be expected. Most playoff teams are at least good enough to take a game off their opponent

 

[WTFMAN99]

A couple things...

1. I'm genuinely curious... What do you think an x-factor type weapon in the bottom 6 is? Like how would you define it and what makes our players not it?
2. Technically the discussion was about our forwards beyond Matthews/Marner/Nylander, which would include players like Tavares and Bunting, and last year included the likes of Mikyehev, and by the end of the year as you said may include the likes of Robertson and Knies.

Really, I don't know why we're excluding Matthews/Marner/Nylander in the first place, considering they're a big part of our team and cap allocation. It's like people want not just a good or great bottom 6 but an elite high-scoring dynamic bottom six, while simultaneously having the best top-6 in the league featuring the reigning Hart trophy winner, plus an elite defense, and Vezina-contending can't-miss goaltending. Like people do realize there's a cap, right?

For the bottom 6, someone that could be a game breaker. I use the comparison as like when Pittsburgh was able to get Kessel down to the bottom 6 or Tampa having Gourde, Coleman, Goodrow in the bottom 6.

It feels like a lot of the time our team is kinda just killing time / surviving without the big 4 on the ice in playoff games and trying to get them back out. I don't have that sense that most guys in the bottom 6 would go on the ice and beat Vas clean with a shot.

Kampf sure shocked me though lol.

Did I explain it alright?

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

We can make the best bottom 6 in the league if we didn't have Murray holl Engvall and kerfoots cap on the team.

What are they thinking up there.

If you stick to in-house we'd even be better with Hyman and marchment at current cap hits (hyman would be 5 because 8 years), rest of money 3C and round off with krok kampf ELC with gamble tandem Ilya / Kallgren. Much better team than we have now and it's realistic because I'm not pulling names out of magic. They are names we could have if we wanted to.

Just an example. Someone can probably come up with something better than mine if i freed you all that wasted cap on low quality players but I like to stick to names we had / have and could still have if we decided to, because you learn more about how your team is changing over time.

 

[Dekes For Days]

For the bottom 6, someone that could be a game breaker. I use the comparison as like when Pittsburgh was able to get Kessel down to the bottom 6 or Tampa having Gourde, Coleman, Goodrow in the bottom 6.

It feels like a lot of the time our team is kinda just killing time / surviving without the big 4 on the ice in playoff games and trying to get them back out. I don't have that sense that most guys in the bottom 6 would go on the ice and beat Vas clean with a shot.

Kampf sure shocked me though lol.

Did I explain it alright?

I don't think counting Kessel as a bottom-six forward is fair. He was a solid 3rd in forward ice time behind Crosby/Malkin, and was their top scorer leading their highest scoring line. That would be like us putting Nylander on the 3rd line and being like we have such great depth. And they also won the next year without doing that.

As for Tampa, this was their bottom six at this point of 2019-2020, their first cup year:

Gourde - Johnson - Paquette
Maroon - Verhaeghe - Stevens/Joseph

They did bulk up at the deadline, but are people here willing to spend the equivalent of three 1st round picks for our Goodrow/Coleman? Were they even really "game breakers" by your definition? Through 91 combined playoff games over 2 years playing over 17 minutes a night, those two contributed a combined 11 goals. And for their 2nd win they cheated LTIR and had like a 100m roster. Not all that replicable.

I think both Robertson and Knies have the potential to be game breakers by the traditional definition. And really, I think any of our 3rd line have the potential to pop off in a playoff run. Looking at last year's Colorado team, who expected Nichuskin with a career 4 goals and 9 points in 42 playoff games to pop off for 9 goals and 15 points in 20 games last year? Who expected Lehkonen with a career 6 goals and 12 points in 33 playoff games to pop off for 8 goals and 14 points in 20 games last year?

I just find that there's a lot of hindsight at play when it's like oh obviously player John Smith is an x factor weapon that's going to pop off in a playoff run, and I'm not sure what makes our players any less likely.

 

[Knies iT]

For the bottom 6, someone that could be a game breaker. I use the comparison as like when Pittsburgh was able to get Kessel down to the bottom 6 or Tampa having Gourde, Coleman, Goodrow in the bottom 6.

It feels like a lot of the time our team is kinda just killing time / surviving without the big 4 on the ice in playoff games and trying to get them back out. I don't have that sense that most guys in the bottom 6 would go on the ice and beat Vas clean with a shot.

Kampf sure shocked me though lol.

Did I explain it alright?

I think it's a combination of having bottom six identity lines, with a select couple pieces that have game breaking ability. They primarily check, but have a high-level shooter to capitalize on turnovers on a dime. An example would be building a heavy, matchup 3rd line around a game breaking shooter like Robertson (Colton), if he could hypothetically handle those matchups, and another piece with game breaking speed coupled with some passable finishing ability (Coleman, Cirelli).

IMO we currently have several bottom sixers who are surplus value for their roles in a vacuum (i.e. Engvall-Kerfoot-Jarnkrok), but in practice it ends up being a soft transition line with no standout traits. Part of the problem is most of the 3rd/4th lines we've seen here lack finishing (Mikheyev, Engvall, Kampf, Hyman, etc.) in tandem with playmakers (Kerfoot, Spezza, Thornton, etc.). So they don't score, don't check overly well, and just provide value in the neutral zone.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I think it's a combination of having bottom six identity lines, with a select couple pieces that have game breaking ability. They primarily check, but have a high-level shooter to capitalize on turnovers on a dime. An example would be building a heavy, matchup 3rd line around a game breaking shooter like Robertson (Colton), if he could hypothetically handle those matchups, and another piece with game breaking speed coupled with some passable finishing ability (Coleman, Cirelli).

IMO we currently have several bottom sixers who are surplus value for their roles in a vacuum (i.e. Engvall-Kerfoot-Jarnkrok), but in practice it ends up being a soft transition line with no standout traits. Part of the problem is most of the 3rd/4th lines we've seen here lack finishing (Mikheyev, Engvall, Kampf, Hyman, etc.) in tandem with playmakers (Kerfoot, Spezza, Thornton, etc.). So they don't score, don't check overly well, and just provide value in the neutral zone.

Yes - we're on the same page with that. I love the Jarnkrok signing too, he can play for me any time but too much of the same in the bottom 6 for the most part except ZAR and NAK add the hits.

Robertson in the bottom 6 would be a sneaky way to add offense or maybe if we upgraded 3C, we could spread it out more?

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-JT-Jarnkrok
Knies/Engvall-Toews/Eller/Monahan(50% retained)-Nylander
ZAR-Kampf-NAK

That looks a lot deeper.

 

[ULF_55]

We can probably start evaluating the bottom 6 after they've played a handful of games together. Let's get crazy and give them 10 games!

Who watches two games and makes an unqualified statement of the lines on just those two games?

Even players experienced playing together have to get in sync to start the season.

 

[WTFMAN99]

We can probably start evaluating the bottom 6 after they've played a handful of games together. Let's get crazy and give them 10 games!

Who watches two games and makes a qualified statement of the lines on just those two games?

Even players experienced playing together have to get in sync to start the season.

They're not a bad bottom 6 at all, the 4th line last season was basically unplayable. We've improved, I just don't think we're going to need to wait 5-10 games, it's just not a group that has natural goal scoring instincts.

 

[notDatsyuk]

The big, and arguably only, thing we're missing in the bottom 6 is a plus level two way 3C. ZAR and Kampf are both plus level 4thline defensive players, Kerf/Engvall and Jarncrok make for a versatile plus level two way 3rd line wing set. But 3 swiss army knife "kinda C's" doesn't exactly have oomph as a line. Kampf is adequate if we got another 4C type, but we should aspire for more than adequate.

If Washington falls out of the hunt early we should be knocking on Eller. Or the real swing for the fences (almost overkill)would be Horvat.

We already have a more than adequate 3C, who is currently being misused as a 2C.

Put JT between players like Engvall, Kerfoot, Jarnkrok, and Robertson and you have a good third line that will score more than a few.

Nylander freed from playing with JT and with players like Malgin, Robertson, and Jarnkrok should make a dangerous second line.

 

[Dragao6]

Repeat what I said last year
Get rid of Muzzin and holl
Would love to getting back to being young and fast

Chychrun and crouse
For sandin, 1st rounders, add Robertson if he’s not gonna be in the lineup

Job is on the line bud

 

[Menzinger]

We can probably start evaluating the bottom 6 after they've played a handful of games together. Let's get crazy and give them 10 games!

Who watches two games and makes an unqualified statement of the lines on just those two games?

Even players experienced playing together have to get in sync to start the season.

Yep, especially with new bodies who will take a few weeks to eventually find chemistry.

Jarnkrok in particular looks very strong so far

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Repeat what I said last year
Get rid of Muzzin and holl
Would love to getting back to being young and fast

Chychrun and crouse
For sandin, 1st rounders, add Robertson if he’s not gonna be in the lineup

Job is on the line bud

or just keep Sandin and the assets. Wait until Liljegren gets back.

Chychrun isn't a difference maker when you're removing all three of Muzzin/Sandin/Holl. Your depth is much, much worse.

 

[Sebastien]

Repeat what I said last year
Get rid of Muzzin and holl
Would love to getting back to being young and fast

Chychrun and crouse
For sandin, 1st rounders, add Robertson if he’s not gonna be in the lineup

Job is on the line bud

They aren't trading Crouse. IT will take more to get Jakub C

 

[cyris]

Imagine how all the people who are mad about Dubas trading for an injury prone Murray would feel when they saw Chychrun’s injury history after a trade.

 

[Dragao6]

or just keep Sandin and the assets. Wait until Liljegren gets back.

Chychrun isn't a difference maker when you're removing all three of Muzzin/Sandin/Holl. Your depth is much, much worse.

U think holl is here after this year
He’s a bottom pair
And chychrun is younger, better skater with much better contract then muzzin

Sandin is still a prospect so who knows what he will be
Chychrun if you believe he’s great or not is a legit nhl players

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

U think holl is here after this year
He’s a bottom pair
And chychrun is younger, better skater with much better contract then muzzin

Sandin is still a prospect so who knows what he will be
Chychrun if you believe he’s great or not is a legit nhl players

this isn't a rebuilding year though. you're removing 3/7 of our defense plus more to add an average top 4 guy whose value is likely similar to Trouba. Is Chychrun/Benn/Mete better than Muzzin/Holl/Sandin? I don't think so.

Sandins trajectory is trending towards being what Chychrun is now so keeping the younger/cheaper guy along with the other assets is the better play.

I'm all for moving Muzzin/Holl if you could make the team better overall though.

 

[4thline]

We already have a more than adequate 3C, who is currently being misused as a 2C.

Lol youve been spending too much time on the islanders board

 

[Jacquestrapless]

What do you guys think of Connor Murphy. Do you think he would be a good addition?

 

[cyris]

What do you guys think of Connor Murphy. Do you think he would be a good addition?

I’d love to get Connor Murphy he is one of the more underrated Dmen in the league.
But it would be really hard to make the cap work.

Reilly - Murphy would be an amazing pairing and would let the Leafs reunite the Muzzin - Brodie pairing.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

I’d love to get Connor Murphy he is one of the more underrated Dmen in the league.
But it would be really hard to make the cap work.

Reilly - Murphy would be an amazing pairing and would let the Leafs reunite the Muzzin - Brodie pairing.

True, Murray would be expensive to move (this season anyway)

I'm thinking you would need to move Kerfoot and Holl. Then have someone like Holmberg come in and play 3c or 4c if you move Kampf up.

 

[cyris]

True, Murray would be expensive to move (this season anyway)

I'm thinking you would need to move Kerfoot and Holl. Then have someone like Holmberg come in and play 3c or 4c if you move Kampf up.

I’d be more inclined to just pay the futures to get full retention from the Blackhawks. It would hurt but Chicago won’t need the cap space.
Something like Sandin + Holl(cap) + 1st + pick

 

[TheShape]

They're not a bad bottom 6 at all, the 4th line last season was basically unplayable. We've improved, I just don't think we're going to need to wait 5-10 games, it's just not a group that has natural goal scoring instincts.

At this point Kerfoot and Holl combining for 5.5m in cap space is criminal. There's your money to find some scoring punch in the bottom 6 or a higher end 3C who could move up the lineup if needed.

And I agree, the bottom 6 has massively improved from an all 3 zones standpoint, but there's no reliable goal scorer there to feast on the opponent's 3rd pairs. Been a glaring issue since Dubas moved Kadri.

 

[SprDaVE]

What do you guys think of Connor Murphy. Do you think he would be a good addition?

Very doubtful the Leafs have interest in him with his contract. Too much term and cap hit a tad high for what he provides.