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lJuicel
Registered User
Shocker that this isn't going to be settled by Friday. (Sarcasm Font) How do you guys think this makes Sather look ? He's already set 1 deadline that is about to come and go without him doing what he said he was going to.
JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK
Twenty f*ckin years
- Oct 8, 2010
- 80,067
- 17,706
Was never expecting Callahan to be moved by Friday, but there's still time left. I doubt any of us expected Gaborik to be moved at the deadline last year, I know I didn't.
SA16
Sixstring
They would. 95% of the time (using -31-'s math). Let's not pretend like they would lose 100% of the time.
Killem Dafoe
Hold my baby, man.
Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
- 28,981
- 24,357
I don't agree.
I know we've been trained to think that the playoffs is where the proverbial cream rises (provided it's North American enough), but I don't see a playoff series as anything other than a series of 7 hockey games.
It makes Sather look like a GM that won't take just anything for Callahan.
Did Sather ever publicly say he wanted to trade Callahan before Friday?
Nope...That was just media conjecture that turned into hfboards fact. It happens all the time...
JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK
Twenty f*ckin years
- Oct 8, 2010
- 80,067
- 17,706
And the depth/superior talent of a team like Chicago would absolutely annihilate a team that lacks talent/depth like Buffalo/Edmonton 99/100.
We shouldn't be building hoping for that 1/100 chance. The favorites don't always win, but the team to win the cup is generally a favorite.
Killem Dafoe
Hold my baby, man.
I didn't really see him being moved by the Friday deadline, but I guess anything can happen. I'm sure Sather wants to get the best deal that he can, but at the same time, if he can't get anything done, I wouldn't be shocked to see us keep him until the summer.
I just want to settle for something less when we can just keep him and ride him out. This team is playing very very well.
I just want to settle for something less when we can just keep him and ride him out. This team is playing very very well.
Raspewtin
Stay at home defenseman hater
- May 30, 2013
- 44,300
- 21,901
So, Sather probably was bluffing on the Callahan situation.
Figures. Really wish this was done with by now.
Though I agree GMs are probably gun-shy right now, and the best deal probably isn't out there.
Just. Please. Don't get hurt at the olympics.
Figures. Really wish this was done with by now.
Though I agree GMs are probably gun-shy right now, and the best deal probably isn't out there.
Just. Please. Don't get hurt at the olympics.
HatTrick Swayze
Just Be Nice
To me, I just have more and more of a gut feeling that the leaks/trade interest was all a bluff.
I think it is all a game to get Callahan's ask down before putting ink to paper.
I think it is all a game to get Callahan's ask down before putting ink to paper.
Killem Dafoe
Hold my baby, man.
It's a mind set in the playoffs. Sure, a garbage team can win against a good team just like any other game of the season, but in the playoffs there are other mental factors there.
You need to be mentally prepared and consistent to win 4 out of 7 games or else you won't go anywhere but back home. The chances of a bad team winning a 7 game series against a good team with not only chemistry, but the mental fortitude, is slim.
- Jul 16, 2005
- 14,857
- 13,012
That's probably smart. Ultimately, the chances of Cally getting seriously hurt during the Olympics are real, but small.
Don't sell him at a discount because teams are scared of that potential injury. If his value at the deadline will be higher, do it then.
SA16
Sixstring
It's relatively correct. I did almost the same calculation last year but went much much more in depth and came up with a similar conclusion. I don't know how I would find it on here though.
LORDE
I am Lorde, YA YA YA
Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
- 28,981
- 24,357
Me neither.
Yeah, if the chances were 1/100, I wouldn't hold out hope. But 1/100 is some arbitrary number you assigned to the probability of the worst team in the league beating the best.
There's a good chance the Rangers can finish 3rd overall in the conference, anyways.
Killem Dafoe
Hold my baby, man.
17futurecap
Registered User
2 Scouts from Columbus and 1 from Nashville, Calgary, Carolina, Dallas and Tampa.
MacFarland is Assistant GM in Columbus.
SA16
Sixstring
A team that is a 60% favorite in a given game (that is a -150 line) has an 86% chance to win a 7 game series solely according to probability. Last year we were the 6 seed (1 point ahead of 8th though) and on April 5th we were @Pittsburgh and they were just -124 (55.3% in a given game) which equates to a 70% chance to win in a 7 game series. I somewhat doubt that line as being entirely representative of a typical 1-8 line as the game we played them on April 5 was sans-Crosby. If you up it to -140 you get an 80% chance to win in a 7 game series.
Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
- 28,981
- 24,357
SA16
Sixstring
Yea I just realized my number was off. From a calculation I did a year ago and I must have inputted the wrong number. I just noticed the same actually and have a spreadsheet displaying all the data.
Probability = P^4 * (1+4q+10q^2+20q^3) where Q=1-P
That's more extreme than my initial incorrect calculation showed. Thanks for the check on it though.
Additionally an 80% favorite in a game is a -400 line which is essentially unheard of in hockey. The highest you ever would see would be closer to -300 which is a 75% winning chance in a given game = 93% in a series.
Yea I just realized my number was off. From a calculation I did a year ago and I must have inputted the wrong number. I just noticed the same actually and have a spreadsheet displaying all the data.
Probability = P^4 * (1+4q+10q^2+20q^3) where Q=1-P
That's more extreme than my initial incorrect calculation showed. Thanks for the check on it though.
Additionally an 80% favorite in a game is a -400 line which is essentially unheard of in hockey. The highest you ever would see would be closer to -300 which is a 75% winning chance in a given game = 93% in a series.
Nerds.
I think we're getting a bit off topic with the win percentage talk and whatnot. Let's steer back towards trades and the speculation around them please. 
Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
- 28,981
- 24,357
So basically, anything can happen!Yea I just realized my number was off. From a calculation I did a year ago and I must have inputted the wrong number. I just noticed the same actually and have a spreadsheet displaying all the data.
Probability = P^4 * (1+4q+10q^2+20q^3) where Q=1-P
That's more extreme than my initial incorrect calculation showed. Thanks for the check on it though.
Additionally an 80% favorite in a game is a -400 line which is essentially unheard of in hockey. The highest you ever would see would be closer to -300 which is a 75% winning chance in a given game = 93% in a series.
Jealousy is so unattractive.
Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
- 28,981
- 24,357
Should the Rangers trade for a rental? I don't know because I don't know what kind of chance they have in the playoffs because Bob Richards won't let me discuss probabilities.I think we're getting a bit off topic with the win percentage talk and whatnot. Let's steer back towards trades and the speculation around them please.
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