Rumor: Trade Thread XVIII: Brace Yourselves. Friday Is Coming.

[Levitate]

Agreed. I think teams are gun shy for the same reasons the Rangers wanted to deal Callahan before the roster freeze. I.e., that he'll get hurt in the olympics.

That does seem to be the indication. If the Rangers are hell bent on trading Callahan I'd rather they wait to find the best deal they can get than try to hurry something out the door by 3pm tomorrow

 

[broadwayblue]

I've seen a lot of comparing dollar amounts now to next year and years past in an attempt to justify a (larger?) contract.

I'm sorry but 5m this year is 5m next year, players don't ask for a percentage of the cap they ask for a dollar amount. So 5m next year is indeed a 700k raise.

Can we be done with that justification it's idiotic.

Gotta disagree with that. A 5M player today is a 6M player two or three years from now as the cap increases. A player who maintains the same level of production becomes a better value in each subsequent year of his contract.

 

[Don Chytil]

I've seen a lot of comparing dollar amounts now to next year and years past in an attempt to justify a (larger?) contract.

I'm sorry but 5m this year is 5m next year, players don't ask for a percentage of the cap they ask for a dollar amount. So 5m next year is indeed a 700k raise.

Can we be done with that justification it's idiotic.

It's not a justification for a larger contract, it's reality. Sure, players don't think that way, but I'm sure as hell that their agents do. Do I think we should pay Callahan a cent over $5 mil on this team when we have Zucc and Nash? Nope. But it's ridiculous to expect him to sign for that amount with the cap going up. Someone is going to give him big bucks and one of the reasons for that is the increase in salary cap. That can't really be disputed.

 

[Levitate]

Gotta disagree with that. A 5M player today is a 6M player two or three years from now as the cap increases. A player who maintains the same level of production becomes a better value in each subsequent year of his contract.

Yes, especially for a team like the Rangers that doesn't really care too much about actual dollars they're spending

 

[Trxjw]

Yes. I forgot to include a question mark, but my voice went up at the end.

Side note: That is not a question, but you did add a question mark.

Thanks, Ron Burgandy.

 

[broadwayblue]

Yes, especially for a team like the Rangers that doesn't really care too much about actual dollars they're spending

And on that note, Ryan McDonagh could be among the biggest values in hockey in 2 or 3 years. He'll only be paid 5.3M in the last year of his contract 5 seasons from now, while only counting 4.7M against the cap. We need more deals like that. lol

 

[NernieBichols]

i really doubt that. knowing Sather he will wait till the March deadline and risk Callahan get hurt in the olympics. will Sather rush to make a deal, considering that he could get more towards the March 5 deadline than now for Callahan??? will Sather take less now, to not risk him getting hurt in the olympics???

You kinda hit on this. If the rangers decide to trade Callahan they are going to get more back if the deal is made after Callahan returns from the olympics healthy. There's a reason Sather would want it done before the Olympics and a reason why other teams would want to wait. A lot of fear involved by those who want to move him before the olympics for a decent package. BTW I think Stewart is nothing but a stop-gap who we are complaining about and later trying to move to recoup assets b4 he hits free agency. Ive watched him pretty closely on hockey streams since the rumors have popped up. He does not seem engaged. The blues are trying to dump his contract to free space for pieces to help during this playoff run. We want this guy?

 

[SnowblindNYR]

who cares what it is on the cap.

to him, its a 700k raise over a contract he got when he was a far more important player to the team than he is now.

Yeah, I don't get why it matters what the cap is. The cap is not equal to inflation. If the cap increase faster than inflation than giving Cally a raise as the same percentage of the cap would still be a raise.

 

[NernieBichols]

I guess you subscribe to theory of anything can happen. I am being realistic. You're basing it on a quarter of a season. You want to keep Callahan for the next six seasons because they're "serious contenders" this season. The Rangers are in same group with about 10-12 other teams which have a chance of not being a playoff team and winning 1 round in the playtoffs. For all of the Rangers good play since late December,they're a 2-3-4 game losing streak from not being a playoff spot. The Rangers aren't running table until April. The schedule gets harder in March.

Beauty of life, we shall see. You could be eating crow. I'd like you to name the group of 10-12 teams which have as good a chance as the rangers to make the playoffs and then maybe we can tackle that as a discussion. Most of the teams you've gonna name have much greater flaws then the rangers do.

But as unfortunate as it is to me, bc I value your input and have been hoping to hear you respond some of what I've posted. I don't think you will engage in a discussion with me.

 

[Ail]

Yeah, I don't get why it matters what the cap is. The cap is not equal to inflation. If the cap increase faster than inflation than giving Cally a raise as the same percentage of the cap would still be a raise.

Uh, no. Sorry, but a toll is a toll, and a roll is a roll, and if we don't get no tolls, then we don't eat no rolls.

 

[GAGLine]

Uh, no. Sorry, but a toll is a toll, and a roll is a roll, and if we don't get no tolls, then we don't eat no rolls.

Did you say Abe Lincoln?

 

[NernieBichols]

According to a lot of people, the recent string of defeating mediocre teams makes them cup contenders. Not sure I understand the logic there.

I know fans are all about saying they stink and they wont win but how do some fans not realize in the East its the Pens and Bruins and after that the Rangers could beat anyone. Why not TRY and get to the Pens and Bruins and see if Nash and Lundqvist can earn their pay cheques?

Sather wont give up the season. IF he can sign Cally and Girardi at fair deals awesome and if not he will deal them for players that can help now and some picks/prospects.

Not sure why everyone would be shocked to see Boyle, Moore, Stralman stay and then if they lose them to Free Agency.

Everyone here makes it sound like trying to win is a terrible thing.

Yeah the talk the rangers aren't contenders or that you can predict how things will play out is so played out. As of right now, Boston would play montreal. Montreal plays Boston really well, Toronto played Boston really well. What if Pittsburgh has to play the flyers, the flyers goat the Penguins into a style of play which gives the flyers a chance every game. What if crosby goes down, or malkin or neal. What if fleury implodes. Their are so many possibilities, to sit there smugly and act like your being realistic saying the rangers have no shot, is not being realistic.

And as I stated in my 1st post, it makes me question the agenda and intent of even the most respected posters here.

 

[Don Chytil]

Yeah, I don't get why it matters what the cap is. The cap is not equal to inflation. If the cap increase faster than inflation than giving Cally a raise as the same percentage of the cap would still be a raise.

It's not equal to inflation, but it's clearly a large factor in determining a player's fair value. You can try to convince Steve Bartlett otherwise, but I don't think he'd agree.

 

[NernieBichols]

Rangers Schedule in January:

Penguins
Maple Leafs
Blue Jackets
Blackhawks
Stars
Flyers
Lightning
Redwings
Senators
Capitals
Islanders
Blues
Devils
Islanders
Islanders

We went 11-3-1.

Combined record of the teams we played: 421-313-119. Overall winning percentage we had to play against: .574

Rangers Schedule in March:

Flyers
Bruins
Maple Leafs
Hurricanes
Redwings
Hurricanes
Wild
Jets
Sharks
Senators
Blue Jackets
Devils
Coyotes
Flyers
Flames
Oilers

Combined record of the teams we have to play in March: 434-353-120. Overall WP we have to play against: .551

The schedule, while comparable, is actually worse.

So RB. What other excuses to do you have to justify your claim that we're not legit this year? I'd love to hear.

Good work Kenjets. On compiling the data that is, not simply for calling out RB

 

[NernieBichols]

San Jose did last year. They traded away Murray and Clowe. I'm sure other teams have as well in the past, though it's not as frequent. Signing or trading our UFAs is about the next X years, not just about this year.

Both those players were washed up. I know your not comparing them to Callahan and Girardi.

 

[NernieBichols]

Exactly.

Here's where I put the odds on the UFAs:
- 90% Cally is traded, 10% re-signs.
- 75% Girardi re-signs, 25% is traded.
- If Girardi is traded, 75% Stralman re-signs/25% plays out the season without a new contract, otherwise 75% he plays out the season without a new contract/25% is traded.
- 50% Moore plays out the season without a new contract, 50% re-signs.
- 50% Boyle plays out the season without a new contract, 25% re-signs, 25% is traded.
- 90% Pouliot plays out the season without a new contract, 10% re-signs.
- 90% Carcillo plays out the season without a new contract, 5% re-signs, 5% is traded.

Of all the other players, the only one I realistically see moving is MAYBE Dorsett, but I think you keep him as an extra, if you don't move Boyle (or any of the other fourth liners).

Frankly, I think there's a good argument to trade one or more beyond Cally, but I don't think they'll do much more beyond that, and might actually add.

Haha, but I guess you are. haha I'm just playing with you

 

[aufheben]

Yeah the talk the rangers aren't contenders or that you can predict how things will play out is so played out. As of right now, Boston would play montreal. Montreal plays Boston really well, Toronto played Boston really well. What if Pittsburgh has to play the flyers, the flyers goat the Penguins into a style of play which gives the flyers a chance every game. What if crosby goes down, or malkin or neal. What if fleury implodes. Their are so many possibilities, to sit there smugly and act like your being realistic saying the rangers have no shot, is not being realistic.

And as I stated in my 1st post, it makes me question the agenda and intent of even the most respected posters here.

What agenda?

I was one of the most optimistic posters on here last playoffs. Hey, Edmonton isn't out of the playoffs, maybe they could go on a run!

 

[BBKers]

We have put together a nice recent run but I gotta agree with RB that the descriptions "legit" and "contender" do not come to mind regarding the NYR team this year as of yet

 

[Clown Fiesta]

It's not a justification for a larger contract, it's reality. Sure, players don't think that way, but I'm sure as hell that their agents do. Do I think we should pay Callahan a cent over $5 mil on this team when we have Zucc and Nash? Nope. But it's ridiculous to expect him to sign for that amount with the cap going up. Someone is going to give him big bucks and one of the reasons for that is the increase in salary cap. That can't really be disputed.

It's his agent sure, but all he is doing is comparing Callahan to "equivalent" players and their salaries. Truth be told the only thing agents pay attention to is their cut. Which goes up with a larger contact. Regardless, the players value themselves based on whatever they want and ultimately decide what they are willing to take. So just because an agent asks for more because the cap is going up, or David Clarkson got overpaid, or his spoiled kid wants a bigger pool doesn't matter. The reality is that Callahan will decide his value and he'll either price himself out of NY or he won't, it has nothing to do with an arbitrary percentage of cap space.

 

[Trxjw]

What agenda?

If you don't believe that "anything can happen" trumps measured expectations, then you clearly have an agenda. I mean, what I run onto the ice tomorrow at the Rangers vs. Pens game and kneecap Sidney Crosby?

Any negativity around here is viewed as either having an agenda, or not being a true fan. It's just kinda laughable at this point.

 

[OverTheCap]

What agenda?

I was one of the most optimistic posters on here last playoffs. Hey, Edmonton isn't out of the playoffs, maybe they could go on a run!

Apparently expressing doubts that the Rangers could beat the Pens or Bruins in a 7-game series is indicative of an agenda. I wish I could say I was surprised that such a benign observation would ruffle so many feathers but sadly I can't...

 

[aufheben]

If you have to hope other team's star players have serious injuries, your team probably isn't a as great as you think.

Apparently expressing doubts that the Rangers could beat the Pens or Bruins in a 7-game series is indicative of an agenda. I wish I could say I was surprised that such a benign observation would ruffle so many feathers but sadly I can't...

Do you have the numbers to back this up?

 

[NernieBichols]

I'm so freaking torn on this whole issue, it drives me crazy!

On the one hand we have the rapidly increasing cap - Ola is entirely correct in that very few of the long-term contracts signed the 4 years before the lockout look bad now, in fact most of them look like complete steals.

Everyone was up in arms over Skinners extension at the time - that deal is amazing right now. Erik Karlsson makes $6.5M, he'd fetch $10M+ on the open market. Let's not even mention Tavares.

Now I know that they were RFA's at the time but the point still stands - most of those cap hits looked at least "reasonable" at the time but are now steals.

Therefore I'm completely at peace with extending Girardi even though I think he is overrated, as long as it doesn't interfere with extending Strålman, since his cap hit won't be a problem going forward and he has an important role on the team.

The problem with Callahan is threefold.

1. Unlike Girardi who seems to ask for slightly more than he is worth, Callahan is asking for significantly more than he is worth.

2. We all know he is going to break down sooner rather than later, Drury-like red flags here.

3. And this is probably the most important one: He has lost his role on the team. If he was solidly cemented in the role as 2RW and a staple on the top PP I wouldn't have a big problem with extending him even at a steep price. Sure he may break down, but he'd be a significant part of the team and who knows - with the cap going up it may not be that big a burden anyway even if he turns into Brenden Morrow. But considering he doesn't have a permanent spot on the PP and that there are two players at his position that are significantly better 5v5 a big contract makes no sense at all. I'm sorry, but he needs to go.

My plan would therefore be to trade Callahan for a stop-gap for this playoff run and futures. Bank on a kid like Fast taking that role next year. And use the cap space to extend our current players to long-term contracts.

Take the short-term hit for the long-term gain. Lock up Zucc to an 8-year deal at ~$5M, Brassard at $4.5M, Hagelin at $4M, Strålman at $4.5M, give Kreider a back-loaded deal at a ~$4M average, Stepan $5.5M, Girardi $5.5M, Staal $6M. Early extensions are great because they are negotiated versus a lower cap and market than the one the contract takes effect in.

I'd even consider keeping Richards, but that would make the cap tight in 2014-15.

Many of those contracts may look ridiculous now, but they will be gold in 3-4 years.

Hell, even Kevin Klein's contract might look good in a few years.

Looks like tonight Callahan will be filling both those roles. PP and 2line RW. to say Zucc is a better 5v5 player then callahan is hard to understand. I'd love to see a breakdown of Zucc's point totals at even strength and also the quality of players he was playing against at even strength. I believe Brass/Zucc/Puo are taking advantage of matching up against inferior players then them, bc they are playing against other teams 3rd liners. And I love it, we have one of the best 3rd lines in the league. A major mismatch against most teams. Put them out against Smith/Bergeon/Marchand or krecji/lucic/whoever. Put them up against crosby/kunitz/whoever or malkin/neal/whoever. You think they can match up in a 7 game series? Callahan on the roster makes Zucc a more effective player, just bc of roster balance and match ups.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Let's just all plug our ears and plan the parade!

I want this team to win badly. I watch a lot of hockey, and try not to be an over the top homer...all of the time.

 

[GAGLine]

Both those players were washed up. I know your not comparing them to Callahan and Girardi.

Callahan and Girardi are clearly the better players, but the situation is the same. Pending UFAs that they weren't going to re-sign for whatever reason, so they were traded despite the team fighting to get into the playoffs.