Speculation: Trade Speculation Part V

[billingtons ghost]

actually, I call b***s***t on that article. If it were to be true, the Bruins Habs and other successful teams would be nothing but 1st rounders. Fact is, the Bruins are built of second and 3rd rounders that exceeded expectations.

I think the article subscribes to the same thinking that makes the Rags suck every year - that you can buy yourself a Rick Nash and give up on the Prusts, Dubis, and Anisimovs of the world and still compete.

A pick and a round is just a number, and scouts in any sports are just guessing.

For example - There are 30 players drafted in the first round each year. 15 in the top half. There are ~600 players in the NHL. If all top half first rounders were automatic then there should be 150 of them from just the past 10 years, and you would figure another 25-50 from the previous 10 years. That would make about 200 or almost 1/3rd of every team should be nothing but first rounders from the top 15 of the draft. That would mean we should see about 7 players from every team being a top 1st round pick.

I doubt you can find a team with more than 3 top first rounders other than the Pens.

Trading your whole draft to bet on one guy is just stupid.

 

[apice3*]

For example - There are 30 players drafted in the first round each year. 15 in the top half. There are ~600 players in the NHL. If all top half first rounders were automatic then there should be 150 of them from just the past 10 years, and you would figure another 25-50 from the previous 10 years. That would make about 200 or almost 1/3rd of every team should be nothing but first rounders from the top 15 of the draft. That would mean we should see about 7 players from every team being a top 1st round pick.

I doubt you can find a team with more than 3 top first rounders other than the Pens.

Trading your whole draft to bet on one guy is just stupid.

devils: kovy, zubrus, larsson, and bernier may have been top 15

rangers: nash, hamrlik, staal, gaborik, mcdonagh

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

kovy, zubrus, larsson, and bernier may have been top 15

Bernier was 16 and Zubie was barely top 15 he was picked 15th.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

actually, I call b***s***t on that article. If it were to be true, the Bruins Habs and other successful teams would be nothing but 1st rounders. Fact is, the Bruins are built of second and 3rd rounders that exceeded expectations.

I think the article subscribes to the same thinking that makes the Rags suck every year - that you can buy yourself a Rick Nash and give up on the Prusts, Dubis, and Anisimovs of the world and still compete.

A pick and a round is just a number, and scouts in any sports are just guessing.

Well if you're going to say the actual data they used is crap, then I can't say much. That's your opinion, however unfounded it may be.

If you're assuming the data they used is correct, then it's kind of hard to argue against the value of 1st round picks.

 

[Zubrus Coffee Maker]

For example - There are 30 players drafted in the first round each year. 15 in the top half. There are ~600 players in the NHL. If all top half first rounders were automatic then there should be 150 of them from just the past 10 years, and you would figure another 25-50 from the previous 10 years. That would make about 200 or almost 1/3rd of every team should be nothing but first rounders from the top 15 of the draft. That would mean we should see about 7 players from every team being a top 1st round pick.

I doubt you can find a team with more than 3 top first rounders other than the Pens.

Trading your whole draft to bet on one guy is just stupid.

uh oh oilers

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

For example - There are 30 players drafted in the first round each year. 15 in the top half. There are ~600 players in the NHL. If all top half first rounders were automatic then there should be 150 of them from just the past 10 years, and you would figure another 25-50 from the previous 10 years. That would make about 200 or almost 1/3rd of every team should be nothing but first rounders from the top 15 of the draft. That would mean we should see about 7 players from every team being a top 1st round pick.

I doubt you can find a team with more than 3 top first rounders other than the Pens.

Trading your whole draft to bet on one guy is just stupid.

Uh, nowhere does the article say that all top half first rounders are automatic. All the article did was list where player's who score points were selected. And that's predominantly in the first round, especially the upper first round.

Drafting is all based off probability. You don't know have 100% assurance about anything. When you select a forward in the top 10, all you're doing is improving the odds of getting a good player.

I'd also like to add that I find this much more relevant for forwards than defensemen. And forwards are really the discussion at hand here.

 

[apice3*]

flyers have both schenns, couturier, and pronger. Prob someone else im missing

leafs: jvr, kessel, phaneuf

bruins: horton, seguin, hamilton

pretty much every team has 3+ top 15 picks

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

flyers have both schenns, couturier, and pronger. Prob someone else im missing

leafs: jvr, kessel, phaneuf

bruins: horton, seguin, hamilton

pretty much every team has 3+ top 15 picks

Pretty sure Voracek was a 6th overall pick, but I may be wrong.

Got your point though.

 

[OpethNJD]

Looking like we can forget iginla, apparently he gave a list of teams he's willing to go to and it ain't us (van,Pitt,det,Bos,LAK)

 

[billingtons ghost]

devils: kovy, zubrus, larsson, and bernier may have been top 15

rangers: nash, hamrlik, staal, gaborik, mcdonagh

"May have been?"

Or you could just look it up...
Kovy was 1
Larsson was 4

Zubes was 15
Bernier was 16

Anyway, that's 4, not 7... which would be the minimum to even make the theory sane.

Also - cherry picking a team that buys as many top UFAs as it can, isn't exactly fairplay in an argument...and that is still 5.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Devils went to the finals with 4 "successful draft picks" not counting Marty.

Henrique is a 3rd rounder. Yayo and Josefson a 1st. Loktionov was a 4th. Draft location outside the top 10 means largely nothing to our success and thus our future pipeline. Bergfors was a 1st too. Looks like it's pretty much a crap shoot to me. First rounders simply have a higher success rate and that's no surprise but as for the health of our pipeline, which was the entire point of the discussion, I still am not worrying.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

After looking into it more, I don't dump Fayne unless it's for a GOOD top-6 forward, not a questionable guy like Okposo (though I do like the guy). This team plays better with Fayne in the lineup and dear lord SOMEONE has to point this out to Deboer eventually, right? I'm convinced his value is severely overlooked and because of that, he's gonna be worth way more to the Devils than he would be in any trade.

 

[Czech Trio]

It'll be hard to put out a trade bringing a really really good forward here the more I think about it. We are hesitant on high picks with value, we have a shallow prospect pool depth wise, and only a few roster players could be moved that wouldn't create another hole. I guess we'll see if Lou can pull some magik

 

[billingtons ghost]

flyers have both schenns, couturier, and pronger. Prob someone else im missing

leafs: jvr, kessel, phaneuf

bruins: horton, seguin, hamilton

pretty much every team has 3+ top 15 picks

Yep, 3 < 7. By a long shot. It says that there are perhaps only 90 guys out of the last 300 top 15 draft picks that are still in the NHL much less making an impact. That's less than 1/3rd.

And to your point, would the Sharks have done well to mail their whole draft off for Bernier? The Flyers happy with Zubes?

On the top 25 pointgetters list:
Kunitz: Undrafted
St Louis: Undrafted
Ribiero
Datsyuk
Zetterberg
Neal
Moulson
Letang

 

[DEVILS ALL THE WAY*]

This is an honest question. Not trying to bait you, or flame, etc. But I'm completely serious.

Do you ever like anything the Devils do?

I do... I just don't slurp at every single move/pick/trade/signing Lou does.

It's so hard to speak your mind around here when we're not throwing flowers at Lou, the organisation and the players.

What's so wrong about stating the obvious? Is our prospect pool stacked at the forward position? Was our blueline offensively challenged before drafting Larsson, trading for Zidlicky plus the emergence of Fayne and Greene? Is Volchenkov a slow and overated d-men that is earning wayyyyyy too much for what he brings to this team?

If this is a board were you can only drool at the thought of claiming Kostopoulos or Butler off waivers or act like a cheerleader cause Tedenby can deked past 2 players while being completely lost when he doesn't have the puck... then I guess I'm at the wrong place.

 

[Devils Trap]

Ive been defending Lou for a while now, but its been over 2 months.......... Make a move already. In no way shape or form does it take this long too make a trade. This is getting ridiculous. We were forced to putting Pesonen and Gionta in our Top 6 its a ****ing Joke

 

[Devils86]

Ive been defending Lou for a while now, but its been over 2 months.......... Make a move already. In no way shape or form does it take this long too make a trade. This is getting ridiculous. We were forced to putting Pesonen and Gionta in our Top 6 its a ****ing Joke

Exactly what Top 6 Forward has been moved??...and who in our system would bring back a non UFA Top 6F. Tellinder Teddy..Yayo,..Urbom. Burlon? They are bring back a bag of pucks,,I would have said Fayne but 6 health scratches in a row doesnt enhance his tradability ,

 

[Sinner Devil]

I said in another post if Lou loses out on Elias plus Clarkson/Zubie and we again just sign minor cast offs from other teams then he has failed as a GM the past few seasons. We can't continue to lose our homegrown talent and replace them with BS.

 

[Devils1029]

I think asking prices have been sky high which might also be why we haven't moved one of or D men. I'm not one for gutting the team to ad a piece. Lokti was a nice addition for a 5th rounder and Poni cold have brought us some fwd depth that we sorely needed - if he didn't turn out to be a waste. Kostopolus being claimed was a total waste.

I can't blame as Lou as it's not like this team is without talent. They just seem so disjointed this entire year. I like Clarkson but I am beginning to think that we might be able to coax a nice return for him (Bozak and a 2nd from Toronto?)

 

[Bleedred]

I said in another post if Lou loses out on Elias plus Clarkson/Zubie and we again just sign minor cast offs from other teams then he has failed as a GM the past few seasons. We can't continue to lose our homegrown talent and replace them with BS.

This is what's happened. We were FIFTEENTH in goals scored last year. This isn't like 01 when we lost Alex Mogilny and were FIRST in goals scored. Without his 42 goals we still should have been top 5 in goals scored in the league. This 8 d men thing is a joke, and I think Lou is still living in his ''Defense first'' mode.

I can easily see Clarkson leaving next year, and then another Butler being brought in. Matteau being given that spot even though he's not ready, or Tedenby version 4.0 being put there.

Like I said I can respect Lou for standing pat this year AS LONG as he makes an effort to build a better team next year. And no more 8 defensemen EVER.

 

[Scott04]

This is what's happened. We were FIFTEENTH in goals scored last year. This isn't like 01 when we lost Alex Mogilny and were FIRST in goals scored. Without his 42 goals we still should have been top 5 in goals scored in the league. This 8 d men thing is a joke, and I think Lou is still living in his ''Defense first'' mode.

I can easily see Clarkson leaving next year, and then another Butler being brought in. Matteau being given that spot even though he's not ready, or Tedenby version 4.0 being put there.

Like I said I can respect Lou for standing pat this year AS LONG as he makes an effort to build a better team next year. And no more 8 defensemen EVER.

I feel like the only reason 8 defensemen is still a thing with this team is because I just don't think there are trades to be made out there in the league right now. No one is trading. Or at least, nothing of any note. We know there are a lot of teams that would be looking to add, but no one really wants to give anything yet so I'm guessing most GMs are waiting for someone to blink and set something in the market here. If we stand pat though, or try to keep the 8 D-men thing going (without doing something different to address offensive woes), then I'm just confused.

 

[Bleedred]

I feel like the only reason 8 defensemen is still a thing with this team is because I just don't think there are trades to be made out there in the league right now. No one is trading. Or at least, nothing of any note. We know there are a lot of teams that would be looking to add, but no one really wants to give anything yet so I'm guessing most GMs are waiting for someone to blink and set something in the market here. If we stand pat though, or try to keep the 8 D-men thing going (without doing something different to address offensive woes), then I'm just confused.

If we are too far out of it I doubt Lou makes a trade. Which I really can't badmouth that move at all. Especially if all it gets is a rental, and we're in 10th place come the deadline. I would like Tallinder to go this Summer. Not because he's useless, in fact he was our best or second best defensemen last time he was inserted into the lineup before injury. I just feel we might be able to use that $3.4 million towards a forward. I think a lot of us wouldn't mind amnestying Volchenkov at this point, but I think that will be next Summer if anything.

All in all I didn't really like those signings, but I give Lou an A for effort for them. They weren't gonna be as good as Martin, just like Zubrus wasn't gonna be as good as Gomez (Even though he's wound up being better in that time) I just want someone new brought in, and hopefully re sign our guys. If we can't then we absolutely need UFA help.

 

[Sinner Devil]

Who do you see as our big UFA pick up this summer possibly? The list is becoming quite short already..

 

[Scott04]

If we are too far out of it I doubt Lou makes a trade. Which I really can't badmouth that move at all. Especially if all it gets is a rental, and we're in 10th place come the deadline. I would like Tallinder to go this Summer. Not because he's useless, in fact he was our best or second best defensemen last time he was inserted into the lineup before injury. I just feel we might be able to use that $3.4 million towards a forward. I think a lot of us wouldn't mind amnestying Volchenkov at this point, but I think that will be next Summer if anything.

All in all I didn't really like those signings, but I give Lou an A for effort for them. They weren't gonna be as good as Martin, just like Zubrus wasn't gonna be as good as Gomez (Even though he's wound up being better in that time) I just want someone new brought in, and hopefully re sign our guys. If we can't then we absolutely need UFA help.

Actually I think the scenario above (us being "out of it" assuming there's the separation to say we can go that way by the deadline) is the best chance we do make a trade. Someone will want to add a veteran defenseman (a guy like Tallinder especially) at the deadline, especially if they don't have to give up a roster player for it. If we're out of it, I could see Lou stocking up on a young player and/or pick for a guy if he can. I just don't think too many teams will truly be "out of it" in the 2+ weeks until the deadline to say that's too likely for us. If we're in a spot where we're in the hunt for the bottom half of the playoffs, I worry we won't be able to make a trade unless we find a team similarly enough with forward depth, needing D-help to make the push and we can just make a simple enough swap. But who knows.

I think Tallinder likely wouldn't be here next year (barring a move of someone else to ease the depth) because he should be very easy to move between now and then. Veteran D-man, not a terrible impact on the cap considering. And if we're talking about his value in the off-season, he'll be an expiring contract at year's end and could be worth the short-term investment for a team looking to add that depth. He's probably quite tradeable still. Maybe not for much, but I'm sure the interest will be there. Other guys (Harrold or Volchenkov with the more lucrative deal) may not be though...

 

[Bleedred]

Actually I think the scenario above (us being "out of it" assuming there's the separation to say we can go that way by the deadline) is the best chance we do make a trade. Someone will want to add a veteran defenseman (a guy like Tallinder especially) at the deadline, especially if they don't have to give up a roster player for it. If we're out of it, I could see Lou stocking up on a young player and/or pick for a guy if he can. I just don't think too many teams will truly be "out of it" in the 2+ weeks until the deadline to say that's too likely for us. If we're in a spot where we're in the hunt for the bottom half of the playoffs, I worry we won't be able to make a trade unless we find a team similarly enough with forward depth, needing D-help to make the push and we can just make a simple enough swap. But who knows.

I think Tallinder likely wouldn't be here next year (barring a move of someone else to ease the depth) because he should be very easy to move between now and then. Veteran D-man, not a terrible impact on the cap considering. And if we're talking about his value in the off-season, he'll be an expiring contract at year's end and could be worth the short-term investment for a team looking to add that depth. He's probably quite tradeable still. Maybe not for much, but I'm sure the interest will be there. Other guys (Harrold or Volchenkov with the more lucrative deal) may not be though...

You're right a lot of teams won't be out of it. That's the 48 game season for you. The only ones really out of it as we speak I think are Florida, Washington, and Buffalo. Florida and Washington play in the southeast, but Florida I think is done. Washington would need a big push to get in, and I think Tampa Bay is out too.