Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals PART XXXXX

[HSF]

Putting 9M towards our 2nd line Left Winger (as he's shown this season) on a team that is very quickly pushing towards the cap with large raises coming to Zub, Sanderson, Pinto, etc. does kill the financial flexibility of this team.

In addition to these raises, we need to find a top-4 dman, potentially deal with the Formenton contract if new news ever gets released, and make additional acquisitons to acquire adequate players to fill-out our defence and our forward core.

Again paying Cat in the 8s is possible and also adding a defensemen. We have Sanderson on a good contract rn that gives us that flexability. We also have cap savings on Batherson. Giroux will be up in a couple of season so that is a lot of money freeing up on wing.


We didn't trade for Cat to let him go. We traded for him to help us be better.

Cap is shooting up. Sens should take advantage and are trying to by signing guys long term.

Pinto is a perfect bridge candidate


You are way better off paying Cat 8 mill then worry about Formenton who is a 3rd liner on this roster.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Please play the trade game! Revist my Columbus post and let me know. Lol.

Trades, or moves in general will likely (or should) occur in the summer. Hopefully there are no knee-jerk reactionary trades in the short term or in the meantime. In-season trades have been rare for years, and the other GMs will see Dorion coming from miles away. Plus, I would think its the new owner's GM that will be making the moves in the off-season versus Dorion. Would certainly hope so at least.

 

[HSF]

I'm not sure how many people really spend much time thinking about the cap and the future. By future, I mean a couple of years out.

The per usual response when the cap subject comes up is "this player or that player's cap will be gone, we'll have plenty", or "the cap is going up".

But, there's 22 players on a roster & possibly retention & buyouts, so a quick back of a napkin, or observations about 1 or 2 players approach really doesn't cut it, and is definitely insufficient. That was in the "Could Karlsson Come Back to Ottawa" thread on Thursday. ***

*** I put a model together for the 2024-25, 22 player roster with salaries and we were at about $88 m. That was with Karlsson 25% retained, Debrincat subtracted, and Zub or a TBD replacement at $5 m. Debrincat was replaced with a $5 m winger btw.

We can't predict the cap with accuracy in 2024-25, but what should have stood out was the long list of "Assumptions" that I included as they were significant. If even if 1 or 2 of those did not turn out in the most optimistic fashion, I believe we would be $90 m or more in total cap in 2024-25 pretty easily.

So, the Senators will definitely need to watch the cap closely and need to consider carefully the moves that are made next season because there's some big signings like Sanderson that need to get done in 2024-25, and several next year as well, and because of course, for all of the per usual reasons. I've asked posters to put an entire roster (22-player with buyout/retention) together, but that is very rarely done. Oddly, they'd rather spend time typing and arguing which actually takes more time versus generating something more useful. So, I doubt this will change and we'll continue to get the minimum level participation and accuracy with regards to this subject. It is what it is I guess.

bridge contracts are an awesome tool to use for Sanderson and Pinto.

Also Pinto might become expenable if his contract is too much as we have Norris Stuztle and Greig

Senators have plenttyyyy of options and should not be worried.

You are looking at a 10 million dollar cap raise coming up in the next few years. The cap is there to keep this team together and add a top 4 D

The reason that you don't see many wingers moved for a top-4 RD is that GMs are loathe to move a good RD as they are so hard to get. Some are hyper focused on a small number of trades that were made during the flat-cap, COVID period. Not sure that is a trend. Maybe the Nylander for Pesce trade that Carolina didn't do is a better example?

If Zub departs, the new GM will have his hands full landing 2 RDs, or even 1. Unless they are going the free agency route, the new GM will need some good trade bait. Hopefully with new owners with deeper pockets we'll be a bigger player in the free agency market place. Got to hope.

the sens don't really need a Pesce though who would be a top pairing guy. They need complementary top 4 RD. Someone like a Demelo was to Chabot when he was here.

 

[UglyPuckling]

bridge contracts are an awesome tool to use for Sanderson and Pinto.

Also Pinto might become expenable if his contract is too much as we have Norris Stuztle and Greig

Senators have plenttyyyy of options and should not be worried.

You are looking at a 10 million dollar cap raise coming up in the next few years. The cap is there to keep this team together and add a top 4 D

You still haven't provided a 22-player roster with salaries. As they say, "the devil is in the details".

The spreadsheet I developed had Pinto on a bridge which you would see if you took a close look at it. The assumptions that I listed were well worth noting and considering as well.

The post I made with roster & salaries was for 2024-25 versus "next few years". We don't know what the cap will be in 2 years (2024-25), or if it will go up $10 m by then.

I doubt if we can get to more meaningful & accurate discussion going back & forth like this when you are just making broad statements that don't encompass the entire situation & lack detail.

bridge contracts are an awesome tool to use for Sanderson and Pinto.

Also Pinto might become expenable if his contract is too much as we have Norris Stuztle and Greig

Senators have plenttyyyy of options and should not be worried.

You are looking at a 10 million dollar cap raise coming up in the next few years. The cap is there to keep this team together and add a top 4 D


the sens don't really need a Pesce though who would be a top pairing guy. They need complementary top 4 RD. Someone like a Demelo was to Chabot when he was here.

Pesce plays on the 2nd pair for the Canes & has been for years. I've already replied and addressed your other points in other posts.

 

[HSF]

You still haven't provided a 22-player roster with salaries. As they say, "the devil is in the details".

The spreadsheet I developed had Pinto on a bridge which you would see if you took a close look at it. The assumptions that I listed were well worth noting and considering as well.

The post I made with roster & salaries was for 2024-25 versus "next few years". We don't know what the cap will be in 2 years (2024-25), or if it will go up $10 m by then.

I doubt if we can get to more meaningful & accurate discussion going back & forth like this when you are just making broad statements that don't encompass the entire situation & lack detail.


Pesce plays on the 2nd pair for the Canes & has been for years. I've already replied and addressed your other points in other posts.

what spreadsheet are you talking about?


Pesce is too good to be what we need. We already have our anchors on defense in Chabot and Sanderson. Now find guys who can compliment that guys. Find a Mason or Marino. They have become available.

 

[Cosmix]

bridge contracts are an awesome tool to use for Sanderson and Pinto.

Also Pinto might become expenable if his contract is too much as we have Norris Stuztle and Greig

Senators have plenttyyyy of options and should not be worried.

You are looking at a 10 million dollar cap raise coming up in the next few years. The cap is there to keep this team together and add a top 4 D


the sens don't really need a Pesce though who would be a top pairing guy. They need complementary top 4 RD. Someone like a Demelo was to Chabot when he was here.

I think we need a Demelo on the 3rd pair at $1M but a much better D on the top 4.

 

[HSF]

I think we need a Demelo on the 3rd pair at $1M but a much better D on the top 4.

ideally we could just throw in a elc there

 

[Que]

A healthy playoff forward core, post Kane trade:

Tkachuk - Stützle - Giroux
DeBrincat - Norris - Kane
Motte - Pinto - Joseph
Kelly - Kastelic - Grieg

Sandy - Hammer
Hotsam - Z
Branny - ZUB

Really think D is going to be virtually impossible to find this year.

 

[Cosmix]

A healthy playoff forward core, post Kane trade:

Tkachuk - Stützle - Giroux
DeBrincat - Norris - Kane
Motte - Pinto - Joseph
Kelly - Kastelic - Grieg

Sandy - Hammer
Hotsam - Z
Branny - ZUB

Really think D is going to be virtually impossible to find this year.

So does that mean Batherson for Kane?

 

[bicboi64]

Lol I'll take Pesce over Cat any day. Someone like Pesce (not saying he's available), isn't too good for our team, he's a rare piece that would make this team better than having the luxury of wingers we currently do.

 

[UglyPuckling]

what spreadsheet are you talking about?


Pesce is too good to be what we need. We already have our anchors on defense in Chabot and Sanderson. Now find guys who can compliment that guys. Find a Mason or Marino. They have become available.

It's in the "Could Karlsson Come Back to Ottawa" thread. Go back to about last Thursday to find it.

Are you going to provide your spreadsheet (CapFriendly, whatever) so we can see your ideas -> the details?

Re: Pesce - It depends on what our goals are. If we want to be a deep playoff team, having a Pesce on the 2nd pair would help. Teams that have won the Cup or went deep in the playoffs had two good top pairs & players (TBL, Avs).

Yes, Colorado traded for Manson and lost a good prospect & a 2nd. They were an obvious Cup contender though which is quite unlike our situation where we are just trying to get into the playoffs. The teams are apples and oranges by comparison.

If a Marino type deal arises again, then of course, the new management team should snap it up. I'm not sure that the one or two examples you tend to use are indications of a typical market though especially the market in the near future. You say yourself that the cap is going up (always debatable by how much & when exactly), but that will be more like a return to the normal market versus the flat-cap COVID market that we've had lately. I'd love to be wrong on this.

Forgot to mention, if we bridge Sanderson, I can't imagine what he'll want after a couple of years of cap increases. The cost will be really high.

 

[HSF]

It's in the "Could Karlsson Come Back to Ottawa" thread. Go back to about last Thursday to find it.

Are you going to provide your spreadsheet (CapFriendly, whatever) so we can see your ideas -> the details?

Re: Pesce - It depends on what our goals are. If we want to be a deep playoff team, having a Pesce on the 2nd pair would help. Teams that have won the Cup or went deep in the playoffs had two good top pairs & players (TBL, Avs).

Yes, Colorado traded for Manson and lost a good prospect & a 2nd. They were an obvious Cup contender though which is quite unlike our situation where we are just trying to get into the playoffs. The teams are apples and oranges by comparison.

If a Marino type deal arises again, then of course, the new management team should snap it up. I'm not sure that the one or two examples you tend to use are indications of a typical market though especially the market in the near future. You say yourself that the cap is going up (always debatable by how much & when exactly), but that will be more like a return to the normal market versus the flat-cap COVID market that we've had lately. I'd love to be wrong on this.

Forgot to mention, if we bridge Sanderson, I can't imagine what he'll want after a couple of years of cap increases. The cost will be really high.

Quickly put this together:

1. Took out Joseph and Formenton but kept Talbot. We could maybe see Talbot gone and one of Formenton and Joseph remain depending on what happens
2. I think my estimation for DBC is a bit high. I think he comes in the 8s but below Brady.
3. Zero chance a cap team is carrying 22 players. Cap savings there should get us below the projected cap
4. If they bridge Sanderson he could come in below 8.5mill but lets keep it at this as a high range. Same with Zub I think the max he gets is 5mill.
5. 5 mill for a number 4 is a very good amount of money


So while carrying two extra bodies which won't happen as a cap team this roster is a tad but over the projected cap. They should be able to get under and that is with keeping DBC, talbot and also adding a 5mill defensemen.

Forgot to mention, if we bridge Sanderson, I can't imagine what he'll want after a couple of years of cap increases. The cost will be really high.

Well yes he will probably cost more but the key is the balance and cap and to have as much talent for a cup window. Once you have to pay Sanderson more hopefully by then we have a cup or have come close and you can then move out some bigger contracts

 

[Hale The Villain]

Quickly put this together:

1. Took out Joseph and Formenton but kept Talbot. We could maybe see Talbot gone and one of Formenton and Joseph remain depending on what happens
2. I think my estimation for DBC is a bit high. I think he comes in the 8s but below Brady.
3. Zero chance a cap team is carrying 22 players. Cap savings there should get us below the projected cap
4. If they bridge Sanderson he could come in below 8.5mill but lets keep it at this as a high range. Same with Zub I think the max he gets is 5mill.
5. 5 mill for a number 4 is a very good amount of money


So while carrying two extra bodies which won't happen as a cap team this roster is a tad but over the projected cap. They should be able to get under and that is with keeping DBC, talbot and also adding a 5mill defensemen.

View attachment 617295


Well yes he will probably cost more but the key is the balance and cap and to have as much talent for a cup window. Once you have to pay Sanderson more hopefully by then we have a cup or have come close and you can then move out some bigger contracts

This is a good analysis but even with new ownership are we going to be a cap team in 2024/25?

I'm skeptical we'll be able to spend right to the cap until the team is moved to a downtown arena, at which point any attendance issues should be fixed.

 

[aragorn]

oops

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I have been wondering that myself. People are really flailing around in here lately - desperation trades, etc. Something has gotten into the water maybe.

People beleive we are missing something rightly or wrongly. And will give up anything to obtain it.

 

[Pinto Bean]

The reason that you don't see many wingers moved for a top-4 RD is that GMs are loathe to move a good RD as they are so hard to get. Some are hyper focused on a small number of trades that were made during the flat-cap, COVID period. Not sure that is a trend. Maybe the Nylander for Pesce trade that Carolina didn't do is a better example?

If Zub departs, the new GM will have his hands full landing 2 RDs, or even 1. Unless they are going the free agency route, the new GM will need some good trade bait. Hopefully with new owners with deeper pockets we'll be a bigger player in the free agency market place. Got to hope.

Yep I'm seeing things the same way you are. That's why I'm typically suggesting trying to trade DeBrincat for a defensemen of lesser quality. So if Cat is considered a top-line winger, I'd be content trading him for a second pairing RD and that will likely still be hard to come by due to what you've mentioned.

It becomes more difficult when you add that Car has contract insecurity and the Sens would likely want a dman who has some cost-control.

It's going to be tough to come by but I hope something like this can happen cause it does scare me a bit paying Cat 8M+ when he'll POSSIBLY be our 4th more impactful forward (Norris and Stu because they're both great and play a high value position + Tkachuk are the ones I'd have ahead of him)

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Okay so we'll agree to disagree then because I would deal DeBrincat for that with little hesitation given the team and future cap circumstances. If this was a team with a plethora of dmen and limited forward options I would be on a different boat but that obviously isn't the case with the current makeup of the Sens squad.

I can see that you would… I’m saying you likely won’t need to

 

[Pinto Bean]

Again paying Cat in the 8s is possible and also adding a defensemen. We have Sanderson on a good contract rn that gives us that flexability. We also have cap savings on Batherson. Giroux will be up in a couple of season so that is a lot of money freeing up on wing.


We didn't trade for Cat to let him go. We traded for him to help us be better.

Cap is shooting up. Sens should take advantage and are trying to by signing guys long term.

Pinto is a perfect bridge candidate


You are way better off paying Cat 8 mill then worry about Formenton who is a 3rd liner on this roster.

As I expected. You want to retain a winger who would possibly be our 4th most *impactful* forward at the cost of our depth, having to bridge Pinto and not taking into consideration future massive contracts for Sandy/Pinto/etc. It's a short-sighted plan just to keep a winger (albeit a fantastic one)

 

[HSF]

removing Cat to bring in a defensemen is just a wasted exercise. You improve the defense but you handicap the offense.

Championship level teams have both. We have seen MULTIPLE RD go for much less than Cat.

 

[HSF]

As I expected. You want to retain a winger who would possibly be our 4th most *impactful* forward at the cost of our depth, having to bridge Pinto and not taking into consideration future massive contracts for Sandy/Pinto/etc. It's a short-sighted plan just to keep a winger (albeit a fantastic one)

I am confused


My solution lets us keep both Cat and Pinto. Wouldn't you rather have both then Pinto alone?

Bridge deals are a GREAT tool to use. Tampa prolonged their window by bridging Point.

Also Pinto might look more favourably on a bridge deal knowing that his ice will always be limited with Norris and Stuztle infront of him. Debrincat does not need to worry about that

All good teams lose 3rd/4th line depth because its important to keep the talent

As expected your thinking is short sighted

 

[Pinto Bean]

This is a good analysis but even with new ownership are we going to be a cap team in 2024/25?

I'm skeptical we'll be able to spend right to the cap until the team is moved to a downtown arena, at which point any attendance issues should be fixed.

It also tears about our depth and puts all the hopes on Greig who is Always injured, Boucher who isn't very good, and a bunch of other young guys who haven't shown they can do much of all. That bottom-6 would be a coaches nightmare if they were all as raw as they likely would be in their first year in the NHL.

Not to mention the minimal depth on d where we all know how many injuries occur.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Quickly put this together:

1. Took out Joseph and Formenton but kept Talbot. We could maybe see Talbot gone and one of Formenton and Joseph remain depending on what happens
2. I think my estimation for DBC is a bit high. I think he comes in the 8s but below Brady.
3. Zero chance a cap team is carrying 22 players. Cap savings there should get us below the projected cap
4. If they bridge Sanderson he could come in below 8.5mill but lets keep it at this as a high range. Same with Zub I think the max he gets is 5mill.
5. 5 mill for a number 4 is a very good amount of money


So while carrying two extra bodies which won't happen as a cap team this roster is a tad but over the projected cap. They should be able to get under and that is with keeping DBC, talbot and also adding a 5mill defensemen.

View attachment 617295


Well yes he will probably cost more but the key is the balance and cap and to have as much talent for a cup window. Once you have to pay Sanderson more hopefully by then we have a cup or have come close and you can then move out some bigger contracts

Agree with a lot of what you said/posted. However, here are a few points well worth considering imho that could impact this scenario:

1. First of all, you ended up with a total number that was pretty close to mine (about $1 m difference). So, we are ending or converging on the same conclusion and same kind of estimate = good stuff.

2. There's 2 assumptions in your spreadsheet that are important. The first was Pinto on a bridge for $3m. I made the same assumption btw. The other is that we can get RHD for the 2nd pair at $5 m, along with Zub at $5 m I suppose as well. I don't think they are necessarily bad assumptions, but if they are a little low, we could end up around $90 m pretty easily. I found the Pinto assumption as one that I wondered about the most.

3. As for a 20 player roster, I don't think I've seen many 20-player rosters e.g., very few. That's paper thin and would allow for much like injuries that might add to cost, etc.

Conclusion:

A. We don't know if the cap ceiling will be $89 m (or higher hopefully) in 2024-25. Hope so, but we'll have to see.

B. We don't know if the team will spend to cap ceiling.

 

[Pinto Bean]

I am confused


My solution lets us keep both Cat and Pinto. Wouldn't you rather have both then Pinto alone?

Bridge deals are a GREAT tool to use. Tampa prolonged their window by bridging Point.

Also Pinto might look more favourably on a bridge deal knowing that his ice will always be limited with Norris and Stuztle infront of him. Debrincat does not need to worry about that

All good teams lose 3rd/4th line depth because its important to keep the talent

As expected your thinking is short sighted

A bridge can be solid if we were at the brink of competing and could utlize some cheap salaries in the present but we're still multiple years away from actually being competitive in all likeliness. If Pinto improves over the time of that Bridge you'll have to pay him exponentially more right when we might actually be a competitive team.

I also wonder where this second 5M RD magically appears from. What asset are we giving up to get this?

 

[camZ]

to. NYR
Batherson
Brannstrom
to Sens
Lafreniere
Schneider

If that was on the table it would be done by now from Ottawa perspective. Rangers say no

 

[HSF]

A bridge can be solid if we were at the brink of competing and could utlize some cheap salaries in the present but we're still multiple years away from actually being competitive in all likeliness. If Pinto improves over the time of that Bridge you'll have to pay him exponentially more right when we might actually be a competitive team.

I also wonder where this second 5M RD magically appears from. What asset are we giving up to get this?

If Pinto improves so much that he becomes a 8mill+ player then you will certainly trade one of Norris or Stuztle no?

Paying your 3rd C at 8mill does more to kill our depth then bridging Pinto

The whole point of signing Brady Stuztle Norris to long term deal is that it gives us flexibility as the cap increases