Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals PART XXXXIX

[DaveMatthew]

Again, Sorry, I meant Roy.

Yeah, he'd be a good add, but I can't see LA trading him. Doesn't make a lot, still has a year left, and they have their eyes set on the playoffs as well. Clarke is pushing on their team, but there's no real reason for them to trade Roy this year.

Maybe if the dust around Formenton settles they'd see value in a swap like that, but I doubt they'd want picks/prospects.

The most plausible guy on your list is Dumba, if he'd be willing to waive for Ottawa. Minnesota seems like they might want to make a change just to shake things up, Addison has played really well for them, and it doesn't feel like they're interested in bringing Dumba back next year. With their cap issues, they could be interested in a guy like Lassi Thomson.

With that said, reading the Wild board, it sounds like Dumba has regressed a lot and the consensus is that he's not very good anymore.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Yeah, he'd be a good add, but I can't see LA trading him. Doesn't make a lot, still has a year left, and they have their eyes set on the playoffs as well. Clarke is pushing on their team, but there's no real reason for them to trade Roy this year.

Maybe if the dust around Formenton settles they'd see value in a swap like that, but I doubt they'd want picks/prospects.

My understanding is that they're trying to find time for Brandt Clarke and they have Doughty Durzi, Roy, and Walker ahead of him so it is just a matter of time before they have to trade someone for help elsewhere on the roster.

 

[DaveMatthew]

My understanding is that they're trying to find time for Brandt Clarke and they have Doughty Durzi, Roy, and Walker ahead of him so it is just a matter of time before they have to trade someone for help elsewhere on the roster.

Yeah, but they'd be looking for NHL ready players in return in that case. Outside of Formenton, and who knows what that situation is, we wouldn't have much to offer.

Feels like that's a trade their more likely to make in the summer, and based on their board, the fanbase would much rather move on from Durzi and Walker than Roy.

 

[GCK]

A legit top-4 defenseman is not an upgrade on Hamonic?

Why are the Islanders moving Mayfield in your scenario ?

 

[DaveMatthew]

Why are the Islanders moving Mayfield in your scenario ?

He could be available at the deadline if they fall out of it (which wouldn't surprise me in their first post-Trotz year). He's an upcoming UFA, and with Dobson and Pulock on the right-side, probably not going to be re-signed.

 

[GCK]

My understanding is that they're trying to find time for Brandt Clarke and they have Doughty Durzi, Roy, and Walker ahead of him so it is just a matter of time before they have to trade someone for help elsewhere on the roster.

It won’t be Roy. It would be Durzi or Walker and neither are of interest

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

If we're still clearly in it at the deadline: Zaitsev and a 2nd for Klingberg (He can be a pure rental it doesn't matter, we more or less ahve to pay a 2nd to get rid of Zaitsev anyways)?

 

[PatrickEaves]

Lot's of nuance there. Kyle Beach wasn't a player on the Blackhawks roster, he was in the minors all year, so outside of camp, Toews wouldn't have had all that much engagement with him. Who knows what he (and the rest of the players) knew or didn't know, at the time.

He was also just 21 years old himself. Sure he was an "NHL captain", but the guy would have been a college student if he wasn't a talented hockey player. He was a kid. He would not have been equipped to handle such a situation at that age, especially in terms of dealing with major authority figures like Joel Quenneville, Stan Bowman and Jon McDonogh. Nor should he have been expected to. That was their job and responsibility. They're the ones that failed Beach an all of the players, not him (or Kane, Seabrook, etc).

I'd have no problem acquiring him, just like I'd have no problems hiring Joe Sakic to be part of an NHL organization, despite him being the star player on the same team as Sheldon Kennedy when he was being abused by Graham James.

Blame the authority figures and people in charge, not the kids (even if they have a symbolic role like team captain - they're still kids).

Except his comments JUST LAST YEAR, about the situation were just as tone deaf.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Except his comments JUST LAST YEAR, about the situation were just as tone deaf.

Okay?

A player making "tone-deaf" comments would have zero impact on whether I'd want the team I cheer for to acquire them. He'd be a good fit on this team, IMO, if Norris is out long-term, and we're in a unique position where trading for him would be easier than for other teams.

Besides, this is what he said:

"Had I been connected to the situation and known some of the more gory details of it, I’d like to say yeah," he said, "I would have acted differently in my role as captain, yeah.

“It puts things in perspective. When you’re chasing your dream of a Stanley Cup it becomes the only thing. They say winning is everything. It just consumes your whole world. It’s a special memory in a lot of ways, but when something like this tarnishes it, it definitely makes you realize that there’s more to life than hockey. In so many ways it’s an unfortunate situation. Winning the Stanley Cup that year is beside the point."

Doesn't seem all that bad.

I'd love to get Kane too, btw. That seems like a bit more of a pipe dream though.

 

[Silencio]

Ottawa fans seeing the same trade rumour for months:

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Why are the Islanders moving Mayfield in your scenario ?

Not OP, but I also think he might be available in a few months.

The Islanders have started 2-4 and look like a 2-4 team. They've only beaten other poor starting teams in Anaheim and San Jose. Their next games are NYR, Carolina, and Colorado. There is a solid chance they are well out of the playoffs come deadline.

Mayfield is on his least season before UFA. he's expected to get a 4 - 5.5M contract over 4-5 years. He's 30. Islanders have 12M in cap space for 5 players so while not crippling, it isn't like they have a ton of room to spend 4M+ on a 3rd pairing defenseman since they have Pulock and Dobson ahead oh him on the depth chart as well.

Not saying it is going to happen, but if they're out of it, I see him being moveable. It is do-able to keep him, but they also might want to spend money elsewhere. They have one ELC on their entire roster. The vast majority of the forwards ( Parise, Lee, Nelson, Bailey, Pageau, Palmieri, Cizikas, Clutterbuck, Martin, etc..) will be on the wrong side of 30. Only Barzal, Bellows and Beauvillier are 25 or younger and of those only Barzal is truly important.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Let's let this whole thing simmer for a bit. Brassard can cover the 2C role for a month or two. Let Pinto get a bit more experience, and if Norris is still out, he can move up the lineup by xmas.

Let the group we have work through the Norris injury. Defeense is going well enough not to worry about additions right now. If he can hold on a few more months, one of Lassi or JBD should be ready to slot in the third pairing soon.

Sometimes playing through adversity can make for a tighter and better group overall. Let's see what happens.

 

[GCK]

Let's let this whole thing simmer for a bit. Brassard can cover the 2C role for a month or two. Let Pinto get a bit more experience, and if Norris is still out, he can move up the lineup by xmas.

Let the group we have work through the Norris injury. Defeense is going well enough not to worry about additions right now. If he can hold on a few more months, one of Lassi or JBD should be ready to slot in the third pairing soon.

Sometimes playing through adversity can make for a tighter and better group overall. Let's see what happens.

I don’t think Brassard is a legitimate option on an everyday basis. A few weeks sure but not months.

 

[playasRus]

Again, Sorry, I meant Roy.

What a dream it would be to get Roy AND resign Zub.

Would take either of those scenarios though.

The strength of our defense will depend on the progression of Sanderson, which is already going at high-speed. By Christmas, he could easily be a guy who anchors a pairing night in night out, and in that case, Hamonic would be fine as a 4.

The price will probably outweigh the potential improvement, to be honest.

I think it's more likely we acquire another depth guy (i.e. Luke Schenn) who can rotate in and out depending on health/matchups.

Imagine having a top 10 d corps with Sanderson hitting his potential early on his ELC and getting a clear cut #3-4 that's above league average in his role though.

 

[DaveMatthew]

It'll be interesting to see what Dorion can do with Norris on LTIR. With how active he was in the summer, I don't expect him to "see how things play out" for very long. And now he has quite a bit of room to maneuver.

We can add ~14M of cap hit without going over.
The internal budget was reported to be $74M this year. Assuming Norris' contract is ~80% insured, we can add ~$7M in actual salary without going over budget.

That opens up a lot of options, and I doubt Dorion is going to leave money on the table.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

If Brassard can't hack it, I'm sure Foligno will be back on waivers as soon as McAvoy is back.

 

[Que]

I will be whispering *Patrick Kane* into the breeze more regularly now.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

What is Giroux like at centre these days? It might be easier to find someone who can play RW on the second line and keep everything else intact.

 

[57special]

Yeah, he'd be a good add, but I can't see LA trading him. Doesn't make a lot, still has a year left, and they have their eyes set on the playoffs as well. Clarke is pushing on their team, but there's no real reason for them to trade Roy this year.

Maybe if the dust around Formenton settles they'd see value in a swap like that, but I doubt they'd want picks/prospects.

The most plausible guy on your list is Dumba, if he'd be willing to waive for Ottawa. Minnesota seems like they might want to make a change just to shake things up, Addison has played really well for them, and it doesn't feel like they're interested in bringing Dumba back next year. With their cap issues, they could be interested in a guy like Lassi Thomson.

With that said, reading the Wild board, it sounds like Dumba has regressed a lot and the consensus is that he's not very good anymore.

- I agree that he'd be plausible, but i don't know if MN will be willing to give Dumba up, as he makes them a better team for the playoffs.

- It's not to shake things, it's because Dumba will be a UFA, and MN has next to no chance to re-sign him, as their cap penalty rises to 15M for the next two years. The decision is whether to keep him for the playoffs, or move him at the TDL. Keeping him is highly unlikely, IMO, but Evason Guerin, love him(hence the "A"). Addison has little to do with it.

- Small sample size... almost the entire team has been bad defensively this year, with the Brodin and Dumba duo being uncharacteristically bad. Having said that, they just had a good game in MTL - with a couple more like that everyone will be back to(sorta) praising them. Let's put it this way. Dumba shows no sign of losing strength, footspeed, or anything else. There is no physical regression. He just had a rough 5 games, as did Hartman, Brodin, Kaprizov(defensively), Foligno, etc. Dumba is a decent or better 2nd pairing RHD who is a strong skater and hitter, and is capable of playing 22-23 minutes per night.


I do think that adding Dumba for a stretch run would make OTT a better team. I don't know the state of your cap, but re-signing him at 7 x 7M would be a pretty risky move, though it's always hard to predict how the cap will increase, and a player will age. 4x6M, or 5x5M...sure, you do that all day long...frankly, if MN can get him at that rate they'd keep him. I just don't know if that's possible in a market that is likely to be increasing this summer.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I highly doubt we are making a trade for a forward depth

 

[bashbros32]

Screw it, go full send

2023 1st (top 3 protected)
2024 1st (unprotected)
Greig

for

Toews (50% retained)
Kane (50% retained)

then

2023 2nd
2024 2nd

for

Severson/Mayfield/Roy


Tkachuk - Stutzle - Batherson
DeBrincat - Toews - Kane
Joseph - Pinto - Giroux
Motte - Kastelic - Watson

Chabot - Zub
Sanderson - Severson/Mayfield/Roy
Brannstrom - Hamonic

Then once Norris comes back:

Giroux - Pinto - Norris
Joseph - Kastelic - Motte

win cup.

 

[TheNewEra]

If Brassard can't hack it, I'm sure Foligno will be back on waivers as soon as McAvoy is back.

apparently marchand is ahead of schedule so we might be able to make that claim earlier

 

[Big Muddy]

It'll be interesting to see what Dorion can do with Norris on LTIR. With how active he was in the summer, I don't expect him to "see how things play out" for very long. And now he has quite a bit of room to maneuver.

We can add ~14M of cap hit without going over.
The internal budget was reported to be $74M this year. Assuming Norris' contract is ~80% insured, we can add ~$7M in actual salary without going over budget.

That opens up a lot of options, and I doubt Dorion is going to leave money on the table.

All true, but many players have contracts that don't expire at the end of the season. Given this, its the impact on the cap next year that's important.

The Senators will have just 10 players signed next year. So, 13 players (or 12 if they want to go with a 22 player roster) to sign with $22.6 m of cap space to work with. Amongst those that are unsigned are Zub, Pinto, and potentially Debrincat along with a 2nd goalie. Of course, the info in this paragraph is based on a $83.5 m cap. It could go up to $86.5 m which would allow a little more wiggle room.

So, that money could disappear pretty quickly.

*** Of course, they could try to sign a player with a contract that expires at the end of the year. There's potential for no-trade clauses and competition from other teams who expect or want a deep playoff run.

I'm not making any predictions. I'm just describing the circumstances.

 

[DaveMatthew]

All true, but many players have contracts that don't expire at the end of the season. Given this, its the impact on the cap next year that's important.

The Senators will have just 10 players signed next year. So, 13 players (or 12 if they want to go with a 22 player roster) to sign with $22.6 m of cap space to work with. Amongst those that are unsigned are Zub, Pinto, and potentially Debrincat along with a 2nd goalie.

So, that money could disappear pretty quickly.

*** Of course, they could try to sign a player with a contract that expires at the end of the year. There's potential for no-trade clauses and competition from other teams who expect or want a deep playoff run.

I'm not making any predictions. I'm just describing the circumstances.

Yeah I don't expect Dorion to add players with term. And I'm talking specifically budget for this year. There are many upcoming UFAs who could become available in the coming weeks and months.

 

[Big Muddy]

Yeah I don't expect Dorion to add players with term. And I'm talking specifically budget for this year. There are many upcoming UFAs who could become available in the coming weeks and months.

Yes, I suspected that you could be thinking along those lines (& mentioned it in my post). I would imagine that teams with deep playoff run aspirations will be looking at those potential targets as well. It would be a tedious exercise to figure that out (which teams) and accumulated cap space would have to be figured out.

The other aspect of this is what are we prepared to give up? Are we pushing all the chips in? And, some will ask, is this a smart idea? Risk versus reward as always is the case. I don't have the answers. Nor will I speculate. I will just observe. It would be interesting to get an actuary's viewpoint (mathematical) on this subject. I don't have any data on how many times this works out. I guess I do remember history and what happened with the Duchene scenario (along with a small number of other examples).