HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #86: 2023-2024 Season

[Sterling Archer]

Zegras is already getting paid like he has to put up 60pts 5.7M/YR, and he'll be holdout again in 2 years when his contract is up. So it's not like you are getting savings by trading for him, in fact, if you draft a 40-50pt player which the top 5-7 forwards should be doing and making ELC money, you are way better off.

He's getting paid like a 60+ point getter because he's done it twice already at the age of 22 and twice as many times as Caufield has done it, while Cole making significantly more.

I doubt he'll be a hold out for his next contract. Ducks were offering him like $3.5M in the summer and it was a very contentious negotiation. If he's on a team where he fits in, gets paid like he should, I'm sure he'll flourish. He's too talented not to, and if he doesn't, he's still RFA and tradable.

Unless Habs get a crack at Demidov, Lindstrom, Zegras is a better offensive talent than anyone esle who would be available and he can step in right away. Not a year or two later while they develop.

 

[vokiel]

He's getting paid like a 60+ point getter because he's done it twice already at the age of 22 and twice as many times as Caufield has done it, while Cole making significantly more.

I doubt he'll be a hold out for his next contract. Ducks were offering him like $3.5M in the summer and it was a very contentious negotiation. If he's on a team where he fits in, gets paid like he should, I'm sure he'll flourish. He's too talented not to, and if he doesn't, he's still RFA and tradable.

By their logic, Caufield's contract is an albatross

 

[Sorinth]

Zegras is already getting paid like he has to put up 60pts 5.7M/YR, and he'll be holdout again in 2 years when his contract is up. So it's not like you are getting savings by trading for him, in fact, if you draft a 40-50pt player which the top 5-7 forwards should be doing and making ELC money, you are way better off.

Yeah a big reason why Zegras likely won't return a top-10 pick is because if you are a team interested in an offensive guy with questionable D and character and have a top-10 pick then why wouldn't you simply use the pick on Eiserman who is all those things but you get the full ELC bargain price tag, extra years until FA, and the better goal scorer.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Yeah a big reason why Zegras likely won't return a top-10 pick is because if you are a team interested in an offensive guy with questionable D and character and have a top-10 pick then why wouldn't you simply use the pick on Eiserman who is all those things but you get the full ELC bargain price tag, extra years until FA, and the better goal scorer.

Because you're going to have to wait a year or two to add them to your lineup. By all accounts, Habs want to start competing next year and need the offence ASAP.

Also, you have a much better idea of what you have in Zegras than you do in a 7-10 forward.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Weren’t there rumors about Cgy being interested? Perhaps a swap of ELC assets who haven’t shown signs of reaching potential in the NHL.

Jakob Pelletier for Harris type swap deal?

I'd rather Montreal trade for someone who doesn't have an extensive injury history, given Montreal's already too close relationship with the IR.

 

[LaP]

You say that and yet, Zegras was drafted 9th in a much stronger draft year. Especially for forwards. 2019 was seen as a potentially just as good as 2015 and 2003 before the draft.

You may not want Zegras, but his value is definitely a top 10 pick +.

I'm not talking about his value. I'm talking about what we should give. The value of Drouin was Sergachev. In the context we were going to lose Markov we should not have paid that price. It was a mistake and would have still been a mistake even if Drouin remained a 50-60 points guy for us.

I'm not saying Zegras is not a good player. But his 200 feet game is pretty average at the very best. He's not a guy who will be terribly useful as a 25 / 60 pointish player. He's not Bergeron or Toews. He'll have to become that consistent 35ish goals 70ish points guy. I'm not sure he can become that (the consistent part) and i'm not willing to gamble a 6th or 7th overall pick on that, That's all i'm saying.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Zegras is already getting paid like he has to put up 60pts 5.7M/YR, and he'll be holdout again in 2 years when his contract is up. So it's not like you are getting savings by trading for him, in fact, if you draft a 40-50pt player which the top 5-7 forwards should be doing and making ELC money, you are way better off.

Zegras is a known commodity while the 5-7 range pick is not. Top 10 picks do bust and it's not just the Habs that have picked them. It happens more than you might think.

The ELC savings is a factor yes. However, if someone in the Habs organization does cap projections, they will know how much room we have or how tight it might be.

The goal here is to assembly pieces in a core and not spread the age out too far. By the time the 24 pick turns 21/22, Suzuki is 28/29. It's nice to have our draft capital moving forward but our two best pieces are 23/24 today. Adding pieces that fit that age core should not be ignored because we are drooling over an unknown pick (5-7) range.

Of course you only make the trade after the lottery.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm not talking about his value. I'm talking about what we should give. The value of Drouin was Sergachev. In the context we were going to lose Markov we should not have paid that price. It was a mistake and would have still been a mistake even if Drouin remained a 50-60 points guy for us.

I'm not saying Zegras is not a good player. But his 200 feet game is pretty average at the very best. He's not a guy who will be terribly useful as a 25 / 60 pointish player. He's not Bergeron or Toews. He'll have to become that consistent 35ish goals 70ish points guys. I'm not sure he can become that (the consistent part) and i'm not willing to gamble a 6th or 7th overall pick on that, That's all i'm saying.

Zegras's over all game is not as sound as the top stars yes. Neither was MacKinnon... his bust out year was age 23/24 I believe.

It's not easy to trade our 5-7 range pick. We all understand that. But the weird part is thinking the 5-7 range pick has higher % of being better than who Zegras is today. It just don't work that way and none of us know the future.

I personally rather add a 22/23 year old to join the core now vs waiting for the 17/18 year old to turn 21/22. By then, Suzuki and Caufield are approaching age 30 fast. We have to be careful not to spread our core past 8 years+ IMO.

I don't know about you but I'd be very happy with this core:

Roy / Suzuki / Slaf
Zegras / Dach / Caufield
Newhook / Evans / Anderson
Mesar / Beck / Ylonen
RHP, Farrell, Heineman, etc

Matheson / Guhle
Hutson / Reinbacher
Xhekaj / Mailloux
Barron, Harris, Engstom, etc

Monty / Primeau / Fowler

We would still have lots of draft power to keep the depth strong and engage on any trade that might develop as well.

 

[Miller Time]

Sure but it's not like these prospects have not shown signs of progression. Only Savoie you could make argument for but he's also highest draftee of the bunch.

And the least appealing fit/need-wise given his stature & the high cost of acquisition he'd require. Easy pass imo

 

[LaP]

Zegras's over all game is not as sound as the top stars yes. Neither was MacKinnon... his bust out year was age 23/24 I believe.

It's not easy to trade our 5-7 range pick. We all understand that. But the weird part is thinking the 5-7 range pick has higher % of being better than who Zegras is today. It just don't work that way and none of us know the future.

I personally rather add a 22/23 year old to join the core now vs waiting for the 17/18 year old to turn 21/22. By then, Suzuki and Caufield are approaching age 30 fast. We have to be careful not to spread out core past 8 years+ IMO.

I don't know about you but I'd be very happy with this core:

Roy / Suzuki / Slaf
Zegras / Dach / Caufield
Newhook / Evans / Anderson
Mesar / Beck / Ylonen
RHP, Farrell, Heineman, etc

Matheson / Guhle
Hutson / Reinbacher
Xhekaj / Mailloux
Barron, Harris, Engstom, etc

Monty / Primeau / Fowler

We would still have lots of draft power to keep the depth strong and engage on any trade that might develop as well.

MacKinnon potential was higher though. For me it all depends on who's available. I think people underrate the dmen available and could be surprised at which forwards are available at 6th overall. I'm certainly not making that trade before i know who's available. There's too much unknown variables for me to pull the trigger before draft day.

 

[salbutera]

Zegras's over all game is not as sound as the top stars yes. Neither was MacKinnon... his bust out year was age 23/24 I believe.

It's not easy to trade our 5-7 range pick. We all understand that. But the weird part is thinking the 5-7 range pick has higher % of being better than who Zegras is today. It just don't work that way and none of us know the future.

I personally rather add a 22/23 year old to join the core now vs waiting for the 17/18 year old to turn 21/22. By then, Suzuki and Caufield are approaching age 30 fast. We have to be careful not to spread our core past 8 years+ IMO.

I don't know about you but I'd be very happy with this core:

Roy / Suzuki / Slaf
Zegras / Dach / Caufield
Newhook / Evans / Anderson
Mesar / Beck / Ylonen
RHP, Farrell, Heineman, etc

Matheson / Guhle
Hutson / Reinbacher
Xhekaj / Mailloux
Barron, Harris, Engstom, etc

Monty / Primeau / Fowler

We would still have lots of draft power to keep the depth strong and engage on any trade that might develop as well.

I take it people have forgotten MacKinnon was being labeled a 1OA “bust” 3-4 years after being drafted

 

[Habs Halifax]

I take it people have forgotten MacKinnon was being labeled a 1OA “bust” a few years after being drafted

It's weird because so many fans think all top 10 picks turn into stars. Saying no to Zegras because you think we will hit with someone higher is gambling with low odds.

Habs are loaded on D and this next draft is also loaded with D in the top 10. Zegras appears to be available and we need skill up front and some fans are saying no? Wow

 

[Captain Mountain]

I'm not talking about his value. I'm talking about what we should give. The value of Drouin was Sergachev. In the context we were going to lose Markov we should not have paid that price. It was a mistake and would have still been a mistake even if Drouin remained a 50-60 points guy for us.

I'm not saying Zegras is not a good player. But his 200 feet game is pretty average at the very best. He's not a guy who will be terribly useful as a 25 / 60 pointish player. He's not Bergeron or Toews. He'll have to become that consistent 35ish goals 70ish points guy. I'm not sure he can become that (the consistent part) and i'm not willing to gamble a 6th or 7th overall pick on that, That's all i'm saying.

Drouin was more hype than substance and was set up to fail in Montreal (he was never going to be a 1C). Montreal also desperately needed a LD at the time. I don't see a hypothetical Zegras trade being the same. For one, Zegras has done more already than Drouin ever has in the NHL, and even this season would have probably eclipsed Drouin's best if fully healthy.

I would also point out that Zegras is one of the better 5v5 point producers of the last 3 seasons, an area that Montreal seriously needs help in. Suzuki isn't a volume player and his linemates tend to not generate a ton of shots/chances (but with improved on-ice defensive play). Zegras wasn't necessarily a product of Terry in that aspect either.

Zegras is also really young, his defensive game has time to improve.

I'm personally on the fence about the pick, it really depends on opinions of the prospects that would be there. But Montreal is in a position where they can make that kind of gamble depending on the price. So if the main piece is a 6th or 7th OA pick or a guy like Reinbacher, and the rest of the deal doesn't hurt too badly, then it makes sense. Montreal lacks high end offensive upside in their prospect pool, but might have more prospects with some NHL upside than any other team in the league. They're in a position to make trades to get better and you have to look at who's available.

 

[Habs Halifax]

MacKinnon potential was higher though. For me it all depends on who's available. I think people underrate the dmen available and could be surprised at which forwards are available at 6th overall. I'm certainly not making that trade before i know who's available. There's too much unknown variables for me to pull the trigger before draft day.

Yes his potential was higher but the main point remains. Zegras is a top line talent with skill. He's at a low trending point like Dach was IMO. This to me is like buying a stock when it's dipped down and going to rise again. The risk of the 5-7 pick busting or hitting is similar to Zegras busting or rising into a 80+ pts player

Yeah, the trade would have to happen on draft day or at least after the lottery.

I would trust Caufield and MSL to get the best out of Zegras if we were to trade for him. I say no to Guhle but yes to our 5-7 range pick. Especially in this draft where it's loaded on D and we might reach for a forward because of it.

 

[LaP]

It's weird because so many fans think all top 10 picks turn into stars. Saying no to Zegras because you think we will hit with someone higher is gambling with low odds.

Habs are loaded on D and this next draft is also loaded with D in the top 10. Zegras appears to be available and we need skill up front and some fans are saying no? Wow

MacKinnon was 21 (just turned 21) in his 4th seasons. He was 22 in his 5th season when he did 97 points. Zegras will be 23 in a few weeks. You are comparing apples with oranges here. MacKinnnon was a 1st overall pick who was one of the youngest available player when he was drafted.

 

[salbutera]

I had posted a couple of months back going back to the 2004 draft, of all the top-5 picks less than 40% ever materialized into top-6 players…. Zegras is a proven top-6 NHLer

 

[LaP]

Drouin was more hype than substance and was set up to fail in Montreal (he was never going to be a 1C). Montreal also desperately needed a LD at the time. I don't see a hypothetical Zegras trade being the same. For one, Zegras has done more already than Drouin ever has in the NHL, and even this season would have probably eclipsed Drouin's best if fully healthy.

I would also point out that Zegras is one of the better 5v5 point producers of the last 3 seasons, an area that Montreal seriously needs help in. Suzuki isn't a volume player and his linemates tend to not generate a ton of shots/chances (but with improved on-ice defensive play). Zegras wasn't necessarily a product of Terry in that aspect either.

Zegras is also really young, his defensive game has time to improve.

I'm personally on the fence about the pick, it really depends on opinions of the prospects that would be there. But Montreal is in a position where they can make that kind of gamble depending on the price. So if the main piece is a 6th or 7th OA pick or a guy like Reinbacher, and the rest of the deal doesn't hurt too badly, then it makes sense. Montreal lacks high end offensive upside in their prospect pool, but might have more prospects with some NHL upside than any other team in the league. They're in a position to make trades to get better and you have to look at who's available.

Zegras is not really young. He'll turn 23 in a few weeks. Most offensive forwards whose game is based on skills enter their prime at 24.

 

[Guy Larose]

Over the hill, buy him a walker now if you trade for him

 

[Habs Halifax]

Drouin was more hype than substance and was set up to fail in Montreal (he was never going to be a 1C). Montreal also desperately needed a LD at the time. I don't see a hypothetical Zegras trade being the same. For one, Zegras has done more already than Drouin ever has in the NHL, and even this season would have probably eclipsed Drouin's best if fully healthy.

I would also point out that Zegras is one of the better 5v5 point producers of the last 3 seasons, an area that Montreal seriously needs help in. Suzuki isn't a volume player and his linemates tend to not generate a ton of shots/chances (but with improved on-ice defensive play). Zegras wasn't necessarily a product of Terry in that aspect either.

Zegras is also really young, his defensive game has time to improve.

I'm personally on the fence about the pick, it really depends on opinions of the prospects that would be there. But Montreal is in a position where they can make that kind of gamble depending on the price. So if the main piece is a 6th or 7th OA pick or a guy like Reinbacher, and the rest of the deal doesn't hurt too badly, then it makes sense. Montreal lacks high end offensive upside in their prospect pool, but might have more prospects with some NHL upside than any other team in the league. They're in a position to make trades to get better and you have to look at who's available.

At the end of the day, Drouin is not Zegras and Zegras is not Drouin. For all we know, Dach could have disappointed and Romanov turned into a top pairing with the Islanders.

 

[salbutera]

MacKinnon was 21 (just turned 21) in his 4th seasons. He was 22 in his 5th season when he did 97 points. Zegras will be 23 in a few weeks. You are comparing apples with oranges here. MacKinnnon was a 1st overall pick who was one of the youngest available player when he was drafted.

Zegras was not a 1OA labelled star, nor has he had the supporting cast in Ana like a Rantanen, Landeskog etc unless Sonny Milano morphed into one

 

[LaP]

I had posted a couple of months back going back to the 2004 draft, of all the top-5 picks less than 40% ever materialized into top-6 players…. Zegras is a proven top-6 NHLer

But we need a start not a top 6 player that's the thing. Will Zegras be a star? You seem to be sure of it. I'm not. Let's revisit this in 10 years maybe your right maybe i am will see.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Zegras is not really young. He'll turn 23 in a few weeks. Most offensive forwards whose game is based on skills enter their prime at 24.

Agreed. Drouin was like 21 when the trade happened right? I don't like the Drouin worrisome minds. Zegras is on a team that is not as good as the Lightning were with Drouin as well.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

 

[Habs Halifax]

MacKinnon was 21 (just turned 21) in his 4th seasons. He was 22 in his 5th season when he did 97 points. Zegras will be 23 in a few weeks. You are comparing apples with oranges here. MacKinnnon was a 1st overall pick who was one of the youngest available player when he was drafted.

You're overlooking the main point and getting caught into the differences between MacKinnon and Zegras.

The main point here is Zegras has lots more room to grow and he already has a few 60 pts seasons. He's at a low trending point so if you can make it happen now and you believe in Zegras, best to get it done.

Nobody knows if Zegras will be a 60-80 pts guy or stall at 60 pts or less. Nobody also knows what that 5-7 range pick will turn into either.

 

[salbutera]

But we need a start not a top 6 player that's the thing. Will Zegras be a star? You seem to be sure of it. I'm not. Let's revisit this in 10 years maybe your right maybe i am will see.

Fandom “desperately wants a star”…..

But

Looks to me as if HuGo are building a depth based team offense - team capable of scoring 260G+

They look to have a 1st line built, now need to strengthen the 2nd line (Dach), allowing Newhook to help strengthen the 3rd line etc

I fully expect Zegras will be a 70-80 pts player under MSLs tutelage and help give the Habs a top tier PP w the additions of Hutson and organic growth from existing players

Zegras, Caufield, Hutson will form a lethal PP IMO - the rest of team building will need to allow for improving late period / game lead protection etc.