Blue Jays Discussion: Trade deadline: Aug 31 (no, not that one. The other one. The waiver one)

[theaub]

Brady Anderson went from 16 to 53 (maybe not the best example here though)

But I do agree with zeke 100% here

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Voting based on team success. This isn't basketball where one player can win the league basically on their own. It should be who does the most for their team no matter the circumstance.

I know it's been like this for years, but it's still a dumb way to judge an individual MVP award based on something out of their control. Trout's been robbed of two MVP's with the only one where there was precedent for 2nd place was last year.

I mean, I see your point of view. But their viewpoint regarding the award, and the idea that a player can't necessarily be an MVP on a losing team, is shared in the other two major North American sports as well. I'd say its even better covered by baseball as they have the silver slugger awards and gold gloves (which are misused, unfortunately) to determine individual performance.

 

[Discoverer]

Brady Anderson went from 16 to 53 (maybe not the best example here though)

But I do agree with zeke 100% here

Interestingly enough, Anderson, who has plenty of PED talk around him, is probably the best comparable for what Bautista did, and Jim Thome, who had little to no steroid talk, is probably the best comparable for Ortiz.

 

[zeke]

And it still hasn't happened, since Ortiz's current wRC+ would be the third highest of his career.

one of those was a half season. as of now it's his 2nd best full season, and might end up the best.

And my point isn't that it's happened before, it's that what Bautista did has never happened either. They're both entirely unprecedented.

Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Ortiz, Gomes, Altuve, Youkilis, Anderson, Kent, Posada.......top of my head.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Interestingly enough, Anderson, who has plenty of PED talk around him, is probably the best comparable for what Bautista did, and Jim Thome, who had little to no steroid talk, is probably the best comparable for Ortiz.

Except for the fact that Anderson never had an ISO above 200 again after that season, and of course, Jose Bautista has never been implicated for PED use. Which again, seems to be the red herring being ignored here.

 

[Discoverer]

Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Ortiz, Gomes, Altuve, Youkilis, Anderson, Kent, Posada.......top of my head.

Speaking purely of out-of-nowhere, relatively late career HR outbursts... um... I could have guessed that was off the top of your head because you obviously didn't look into it much.

Bautista - Age 29: 54 HR, previous career high: 16
Donaldson - Age 27: 24 HR, previous career high: 9 (in half a season)
Encarnacion - Age 29: 42 HR, previous career high: 26
Ortiz - gradual power increase throughout his career... not at all similar.
Gomes - I don't even know which Gomes you're referring to because neither is remotely close to comparable. I'm guessing Yan, who went from 11 to 21?
Altuve - Went from 7 to 15 to 21 (so far). He's 26. Not remotely comparable.
Youkilis - Huge power increase went from 16 to 29 HR. Nope.
Anderson - Great comparison!
Kent - Hit 21 in his first full season. Hit 29 a few years later. Career high of 37. Nope.
Posada - Hi 17 in his first full season. Career high of 30.

Along with Brady Anderson, the two best comparables for a late-20's HR surge are probably Wade Boggs and Jacoby Ellsbury, who both had no power at all for multiple seasons before a big breakout, but they, like Anderson, both showed no more power after that one year.

Bautista's career arc is absolutely unprecedented.

 

[Discoverer]

Except for the fact that Anderson never had an ISO above 200 again after that season, and of course, Jose Bautista has never been implicated for PED use. Which again, seems to be the red herring being ignored here.

So Bautista continuing to be good rather than reverting means it probably wasn't steroids?

Regardless, my main argument isn't about everything that Bautista's done throughout his career. It's that, in 2010, when he was having his huge breakout season, it was completely unfair to assume he was using steroids simply because his breakout was so massive and unexpected. I think it's equally unfair to assume Ortiz is using something, even though he was reportedly using something years ago when it wasn't actually against the rules.

 

[zeke]

Speaking purely of out-of-nowhere, relatively late career HR outbursts... um... I could have guessed that was off the top of your head because you obviously didn't look into it much.

Bautista - Age 29: 54 HR, previous career high: 16
Donaldson - Age 27: 24 HR, previous career high: 9 (in half a season)
Encarnacion - Age 29: 42 HR, previous career high: 26
Ortiz - gradual power increase throughout his career... not at all similar.
Gomes - I don't even know which Gomes you're referring to because neither is remotely close to comparable. I'm guessing Yan, who went from 11 to 21?
Altuve - Went from 7 to 15 to 21 (so far). He's 26. Not remotely comparable.
Youkilis - Huge power increase went from 16 to 29 HR. Nope.
Anderson - Great comparison!
Kent - Hit 21 in his first full season. Hit 29 a few years later. Career high of 37. Nope.
Posada - Hi 17 in his first full season. Career high of 30.

Along with Brady Anderson, the two best comparables for a late-20's HR surge are probably Wade Boggs and Jacoby Ellsbury, who both had no power at all for multiple seasons before a big breakout, but they, like Anderson, both showed no more power after that one year.

Bautista's career arc is absolutely unprecedented.

why on earth would you look at only HR?

 

[King Mapes]

one of those was a half season. as of now it's his 2nd best full season, and might end up the best.




Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Ortiz, Gomes, Altuve, Youkilis, Anderson, Kent, Posada.......top of my head.

What? Right away how are EE and JD the same? Donaldson was a beast since the start of his career. We're talking a guy who went from a career high of 16 homeruns to 54, in the non steroid era no less.

 

[King Mapes]

why on earth would you look at only HR?

Because that's why people thought steroids. Casual fans don't understand advanced stats. Good job moving goal posts though.

 

[zeke]

moving goalposts?

when did I ever mention HR?

 

[TheBeastCoast]

The thing that has always seemed funny to me about the MVP talk in baseball is that obviously a player like Trout who most would admit is the best player in baseball, he can't win the award because his team just isn't good enough....Yet you move the conversation to Altuve-Donaldson and Donaldson shouldn't win it because his team is better then Altuve's.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

So Bautista continuing to be good rather than reverting means it probably wasn't steroids?

Regardless, my main argument isn't about everything that Bautista's done throughout his career. It's that, in 2010, when he was having his huge breakout season, it was completely unfair to assume he was using steroids simply because his breakout was so massive and unexpected. I think it's equally unfair to assume Ortiz is using something, even though he was reportedly using something years ago when it wasn't actually against the rules.

Wait, what? No man. This simply boils down to previous confirmed positive test for PED's vs. no previous confirmed positive test for PED's. That's it.

Its a moot point anyway. No one in the mainstream media is questioning Ortiz, and he really sustained no blowback from his positive test in 2003. If Zeke wants to wear the tinfoil, I'm just saying he's not completely out in left field (this time).

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

What? Right away how are EE and JD the same? Donaldson was a beast since the start of his career. We're talking a guy who went from a career high of 16 homeruns to 54, in the non steroid era no less.

To be fair, the most accurate way to measure this argument would likely be ISO jump.

That said, no one should doubt what Bautista did is unprecedented. He has the record for biggest home run jump, and the assumption should be that the ISO record is his as well.

I'll actually give someone props if they can name who's record he broke in 2010...no googling allowed .

 

[zeke]

No one in the mainstream media is questioning Ortiz

I bet you they are.

They seem a little embarassed when praising ortiz this year, tbh.

"And Papi has the most HR and 2B of any 40yr old ever.....oh **** he's on drugs"

 

[Scrub*]

Donaldson actually passed Altuve and Betts in fWar after yesterday's game. And is only .3 fWar behind Trout.

 

[zeke]

To be fair, the most accurate way to measure this argument would likely be ISO jump.

That said, no one should doubt what Bautista did is unprecedented. He has the record for biggest home run jump, and the assumption should be that the ISO record is his as well.

I'll actually give someone props if they can name who's record he broke in 2010...no googling allowed .

No reason to limit any analysis to just power.

 

[Sokil]

I bet you they are.

They seem a little embarassed when praising ortiz this year, tbh.

"And Papi has the most HR and 2B of any 40yr old ever.....oh **** he's on drugs"

that's why he's retiring, because he knows if he keeps at it he'll get suspended

 

[Discoverer]

why on earth would you look at only HR?

Because that's what people were looking at when they assumed Bautista was using steroids.

We can look at other things, if you want. Here are the biggest ISO and wRC+ increases over previous career highs:

Bautista - .172, 63
Donaldson - .070, 57 (over his half-season)
Encarnacion - .039, 37
Ortiz - .083, 27
Gomes - .025, 61 (both from his 111 PA debut to his first nearly full season)
Altuve - .065, 35
Youkilis - .092, 22
Anderson - .158, 27
Kent - .037, 25
Posada - .047, 28

I know I keep using this word, but... unprecedented.

 

[Discoverer]

Wait, what? No man. This simply boils down to previous confirmed positive test for PED's vs. no previous confirmed positive test for PED's. That's it.

Its a moot point anyway. No one in the mainstream media is questioning Ortiz, and he really sustained no blowback from his positive test in 2003. If Zeke wants to wear the tinfoil, I'm just saying he's not completely out in left field (this time).

And I don't think the previous test should carry a whole lot of weight regarding whether or not we think he's currently clean.

I'm not even entirely against people questioning Ortiz... I just think it's unfair to openly question him if you didn't do the same to Bautista, and it's particularly funny that he's now going out of his way to provide examples of why Bautista's performance isn't that rare.

 

[zeke]

Best 40+ yr old seasons (career best in brackets)

1. 1960 T.Williams 390pa, 180wrc+ (233)
2. 2016 D.Ortiz 504pa, 167wrc+ (175)
3. 2007 B.Bonds 477pa, 157wrc+ (244)
4. 1971 W.Mays 534pa, 157wrc+ (186)
5. 2006 B.Bonds 493pa, 146wrc+ (244)

Did I mention Ort is a proven user, who never copped to it?

 

[zeke]

that's why he's retiring, because he knows if he keeps at it he'll get suspended

also why mlb is turning a blind eye. just want it over with at this point.

 

[zeke]

Because that's what people were looking at when they assumed Bautista was using steroids.

who cares?

Well can look at other things, if you want. Here are the biggest ISO and wRC+ increases over previous career highs:

Bautista - .172, 63
Donaldson - .070, 57 (over his half-season)
Encarnacion - .039, 37
Ortiz - .083, 27
Gomes - .025, 61 (both from his 111 PA debut to his first nearly full season)
Altuve - .065, 35
Youkilis - .092, 22
Anderson - .158, 27
Kent - .037, 25
Posada - .047, 28

I know I keep using this word, but... unprecedented.

even this flawed look at wRC+ increases shows more than one very similar wRC+ improvements.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Bo Bichette is back in the jays GCL lineup today.

 

[ShaneFalco]