Blue Jays Discussion: Trade deadline: Aug 31 (no, not that one. The other one. The waiver one)

[Suntouchable13]

I couldn't care less if Jays end with 0 individual awards, what I want is the World Series.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I couldn't care less if Jays end with 0 individual awards, what I want is the World Series.

Ditto!

 

[zeke]

OPS

1. Ortiz 1.040
2. Donaldson .984
3. Altuve .981
4. Trout .977
5. Cabrera .931

OPS+

1. Trout 169
2. Altuve 167
3. Ortiz 166
4. Donaldson 161
5. Cabrera 151

wOBA

1. Ortiz .424
2. Donaldson .413
3. Trout .411
4. Altuve .411
5. Cabrera .389

wRC+

1. Ortiz 167
2. Trout 166
3. Altuve 164
4. Donaldson 162
5. Cabrera 146

Cabrera (and everyone behind him) is far behind the top 4. And Ortiz is a DH.

This leaves Donaldson, Altuve, and Trout.

Donaldson adds plus defense withiut much baserunning, on a first place team.
Altuve adds plus baserunning without much defense, on a non playoff team.
Trout adds plus baserunning and plus defense, on a bad team.

 

[BayStreetBully]

I couldn't care less if Jays end with 0 individual awards, what I want is the World Series.

Obviously, but one doesn't preclude the other, so I might as well hope for both.

 

[Paladin2799]

OPS

1. Ortiz 1.040
2. Donaldson .984
3. Altuve .981
4. Trout .977
5. Cabrera .931

OPS+

1. Trout 169
2. Altuve 167
3. Ortiz 166
4. Donaldson 161
5. Cabrera 151

wOBA

1. Ortiz .424
2. Donaldson .413
3. Trout .411
4. Altuve .411
5. Cabrera .389

wRC+

1. Ortiz 167
2. Trout 166
3. Altuve 164
4. Donaldson 162
5. Cabrera 146

Cabrera (and everyone behind him) is far behind the top 4. And Ortiz is a DH.

This leaves Donaldson, Altuve, and Trout.

Donaldson adds plus defense withiut much baserunning, on a first place team.
Altuve adds plus baserunning without much defense, on a non playoff team.
Trout adds plus baserunning and plus defense, on a bad team.

First thing I thought of when I read this is how unbelievably good ortiz is. First ballot hall of famer if I ever saw one. Scary

 

[zeke]

he has somehow magically become better at age 40.

not suspicious at all.

 

[Discoverer]

he has somehow magically become better at age 40.

not suspicious at all.

This is approximately as fair as the circa-2010 Jose Bautista assumptions.

 

[Morgs]

Who's the favourite for MVP in the NL?

Bryant probably with the lead right now

Murphy, Votto, Seager, and Rizzo right behind?

 

[Morgs]

Crazy how good Seager's fWAR is...

Guys as valuable as Donaldson as a rookie?

 

[Discoverer]

Who's the favourite for MVP in the NL?

Bryant probably with the lead right now

Murphy, Votto, Seager, and Rizzo right behind?

I think at this point it's Bryant, followed by Seager, followed by... uh... no one. It's a two man race and there's no one else who can even make it interesting at this point. If I had to guess who comes in third... probably Murphy?

 

[Morgs]

I think at this point it's Bryant, followed by Seager, followed by... uh... no one. It's a two man race and there's no one else who can even make it interesting at this point. If I had to guess who comes in third... probably Murphy?

My money's on Votto for 3rd.

Since June 1st:

.375/.498/.605 .459wOBA / 189 wRC+ / .229 ISO

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I think at this point it's Bryant, followed by Seager, followed by... uh... no one. It's a two man race and there's no one else who can even make it interesting at this point. If I had to guess who comes in third... probably Murphy?

Murphy is up there. Likely ahead of Seager in terms of the actual voters for the award. Perception is he's carried the team with the second best record in baseball due to the underwhelming year Harper has had.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

My money's on Votto for 3rd.

Since June 1st:

.375/.498/.605 .459wOBA / 189 wRC+ / .229 ISO

You'd be surprised just how much the writers weigh team success in their vote. Votto likely ends up behind the two Cubs, Murphy, and Seager. Hell, if the Cardinals make the playoffs, and Matt Carpenter finishes the year hitting like he did before the Oblique injury, he'd likely get more votes as well.

 

[Morgs]

You'd be surprised just how much the writers weigh team success in their vote. Votto likely ends up behind the two Cubs, Murphy, and Seager. Hell, if the Cardinals make the playoffs, and Matt Carpenter finishes the year hitting like he did before the Oblique injury, he'd likely get more votes as well.

Although that doesn't make any sense, it does make me feel better about Donaldson's chances for the repeat. Right now my money is on Altuve for no other reason than a gut feeling (and he's obviously one of the 3 that deserve it).

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Although that doesn't make any sense, it does make me feel better about Donaldson's chances for the repeat. Right now my money is on Altuve for no other reason than a gut feeling (and he's obviously one of the 3 that deserve it).

What doesn't make any sense?

 

[zeke]

This is approximately as the circa-2010 Jose Bautista assumptions.

nope.

Ortiz is 40 and putting up arguably his best season ever. That is nigh impossible.

And Ortiz was already caught for PEDs, along with teammate Manny, in 2003.

 

[Discoverer]

Although that doesn't make any sense, it does make me feel better about Donaldson's chances for the repeat. Right now my money is on Altuve for no other reason than a gut feeling (and he's obviously one of the 3 that deserve it).

I honestly expect Altuve to get a lot of votes (and probably a TON of tie-breaker type votes) because of the "scrappy little guy overcoming the odds" narrative.

 

[Morgs]

What doesn't make any sense?

Voting based on team success. This isn't basketball where one player can win the league basically on their own. It should be who does the most for their team no matter the circumstance.

I know it's been like this for years, but it's still a dumb way to judge an individual MVP award based on something out of their control. Trout's been robbed of two MVP's with the only one where there was precedent for 2nd place was last year.

 

[zeke]

for any stat nerds like me, fangraphs now gives you the ability to look at multiple splits, which is ridiculously awesome:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/new-interactive-splits-tool/

 

[Discoverer]

nope.

Ortiz is 40 and putting up arguably his best season ever. That is nigh impossible.

And Ortiz was already caught for PEDs, along with teammate Manny, in 2003.

There's exactly as much precedent for what Ortiz is doing as there was for a 29-year-old utility infielder journeyman with a career high of 16 HR suddenly breaking out and hitting 54.

And yes, he reportedly tested positive in 2003. But a positive test when there was no PED rule in baseball is not sufficient evidence to assume he's still using something 13 years later.

 

[zeke]

There's exactly as much precedent for what Ortiz is doing as there was for a 29-year-old utility infielder journeyman with a career high of 16 HR suddenly breaking out and hitting 54.

absolutely false. nobody puts up arguably their best year at age 40. never happened.

And yes, he reportedly tested positive in 2003. But a positive test when there was no PED rule in baseball is not sufficient evidence to assume he's still using something 13 years later.

he's a proven user, and never copped to it.

 

[Discoverer]

for any stat nerds like me, fangraphs now gives you the ability to look at multiple splits, which is ridiculously awesome:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/new-interactive-splits-tool/

I saw that this morning, and I'm excited to play around with it.

The only thing I want them to add now (unless it's already there and I somehow haven't found it yet...) is the ability to look up leaderboards between specific sets of dates. It seems like something they would already have, but I haven't had any luck.

 

[King Mapes]

absolutely false. nobody puts up arguably their best year at age 40. never happened.



he's a proven user, and never copped to it.

Okay and someone never went from 16 homeruns to 54.

 

[Discoverer]

absolutely false. nobody puts up arguably their best year at age 40. never happened.

And it still hasn't happened, since Ortiz's current wRC+ would be the third highest of his career.

And my point isn't that it's happened before, it's that what Bautista did has never happened either. They're both entirely unprecedented.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I'm actually a bit on Zeke's side here. Bautista has never been implicated by anyone in regards to PED's except for angry Oriole fans. Ortiz has.

Much like Gatlin, I have a hard time believing an individual performing at such an advanced age for their sport, who was once implicated, is suddenly clean. I just don't have that kind of suspension of disbelief.