I don't. I think the Jays will be neck and neck with the Sox down the stretch. I think the O's will be caught by the Yanks.
Red Sox play the Rays, A's and Padres next.
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Blue Jays Discussion: Trade deadline: Aug 31 (no, not that one. The other one. The waiver one)
- Thread starter The Nemesis
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I don't. I think the Jays will be neck and neck with the Sox down the stretch. I think the O's will be caught by the Yanks.
Red Sox play the Rays, A's and Padres next.
Schennanigans
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Team Canada
- Dec 28, 2008
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playoff chances projections
jays - %93
red sox - %90
Orioles - %43
Yankees - %6
playoff chances based on stats
jays - %90
Red Sox - %83
orioles %43
yankees - %8
wild card chances projections
Red Sox - %48
Orioles - %42
Tigers - %35
Astros - %19
Mariners - %16
Yankees - %5
Royals - %4
these are from fangraphs
Tigers need us to beat the orioles badly.
jays - %93
red sox - %90
Orioles - %43
Yankees - %6
playoff chances based on stats
jays - %90
Red Sox - %83
orioles %43
yankees - %8
wild card chances projections
Red Sox - %48
Orioles - %42
Tigers - %35
Astros - %19
Mariners - %16
Yankees - %5
Royals - %4
these are from fangraphs
Tigers need us to beat the orioles badly.
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I'm guessing the division leaders stay the same, Wild Cards go to Boston and one of Detroit/Houston.
King Mapes
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So with JD swinging again, what are the odds he wins MVP again or is it Altuve/Trouts to lose?
I can actually see us sweeping Baltimore. That team is sinking fast with horrible starting pitching aside from Tillman who is out.
Of course, I'll take 2/3.
I can actually see us sweeping Baltimore. That team is sinking fast with horrible starting pitching aside from Tillman who is out.
Of course, I'll take 2/3.
Canada4Gold
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This is from over a week ago but I'm just seeing it
It's about time. I was looking at the lists after the trade deadline and I couldn't understand why Tellez wasn't on the 1st baseman list. I mean I do. People downgrade him hard because he's big and thus his D sucks, but damn he should have been on that list already. Offensively he's just about as good as any of the 1st baseman, and from what I've read his D isn't as bad as to make up for his offensive advantage over some of those guys.
It's about time. I was looking at the lists after the trade deadline and I couldn't understand why Tellez wasn't on the 1st baseman list. I mean I do. People downgrade him hard because he's big and thus his D sucks, but damn he should have been on that list already. Offensively he's just about as good as any of the 1st baseman, and from what I've read his D isn't as bad as to make up for his offensive advantage over some of those guys.
BayStreetBully
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I don't see Donaldson winning the MVP unless he and the Jays go on a tear over the next month. Trout has good numbers across the board, and Altive has a runaway lead on BA. Perhaps Mookie Betts, if Boston wins the division. I see Donaldson as a finalist, but not the ultimate winner. He also doesn't have the benefit of the Jays' feel-good narrative of last year either.
Re: Baltimore. I'd love a sweep, but I'll take 2/3 as well. Kill them slowly.
From what I have read Tellez is getting underrated as a prospect. Seems to have similar numbers or better than the top first basemen prospects
zeke
The Dube Abides
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zeke
The Dube Abides
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Donaldson is the favorite if the season ends today imo.
he's having the best season aside from trout, and the jays are ahead of all the other candidates' teams.
BayStreetBully
Registered User
I like the optimism but I don't see it. He carried two months of momentum at the end of last year, and led the league in bunch of categories- can't remember which ones off the top of my head. This year, he hasn't been the favourite for a while now, doesn't have the 1993 angle, only leads in the runs category, and others have been just as impressive. But who knows- plenty of time to make a case.
Man Bear Pig
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He's also on a potential division champion. Altuve and Trout aren't. I don't agree with it but many voters will vote for players based on the standings which is ridiculous to me. Trout has been far and away the best player, it's not his fault nor in his control that his team stinks. Betts deserves some love too but I think he'll finish 4th.
zeke
The Dube Abides
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the only guys as impressive have been trout and altuve, and neither of them are making the playoffs.
Sokil
Ukraine Specialitsky
because the MVP is a player who helps his team win, and Trout ain't winning games
I think part of it is if a player performs when it matters. I think we saw with Saunders this year as an example of a guy who can put up great numbers in meaningless innings but nothing when counted on.
Fantomas
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I understand what you are saying, but I don't think that's what he meant. The Angels are unlikely to be a playoff team, so how good could Trout have been, is the argument being made.
It's completely unfair, but there is that though process in sports sometimes.
The Rowdy debate comes down to whether you trust the stats or the scouts. Statistically, he's among the elite offensive prospects in baseball, but scouts don't seem to think his swing will translate at the major league level.
After hearing the exact same thing about Travis last year, I'm inclined to trust the stats and the Jays organization.
After hearing the exact same thing about Travis last year, I'm inclined to trust the stats and the Jays organization.
ShaneFalco
Registered User
The player who HELPS his team win games, or the player who ACTUALLY wins games?
Trout doesn't win because his team is terrible, but he helps his team win more than anyone in baseball.
TheBeastCoast
Registered User
I think a lot of it is it just takes a lot of scouts to admit they were wrong about a prospect as an 18 year old so they stay conservative not wanting to back track.
ShaneFalco
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ShaneFalco
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This. There's still a contingent that thinks his swing is too long to be able to consistently handle velocity at the major league level (or maybe even at AAA), so I think until he reaches that level and produces he won't get that respect. But he's been thriving (and improving) at every level, so I'm also inclined to believe that will continue and he will be able to adjust.
As mediocre as both Baltimore and Detroit have been this season, I'm giving Baltimore the edge for the final wild card spot but giving KC the edge over Baltimore. KC has been good lately and made up some serious ground on Detroit (1 game back). We all know it only takes a team getting hot at the right time to do some real damage (a la KC last year).
BayStreetBully
Registered User
How your team does is but one consideration among many. You don't have to look farther than Harper's MVP win last year to see that a dominant season trumps making the playoffs. I think narratives are important too: Cabrera and his triple crown, Donaldson leading the Jays back to glory for first time in 22 years...
We'll see. I'd love back to back by Donaldson, but I'm skeptical he has the lead as of now. Altuve's BA may continue to slowly slip, and perhaps the voters will make too much of the Angels' horrendous season. So maybe in the end Donaldson ends up a better candidate than I thought.
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