Blue Jays Discussion: Trade deadline: Aug 31 (no, not that one. The other one. The waiver one)

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

And I don't think the previous test should carry a whole lot of weight regarding whether or not we think he's currently clean.

I'm not even entirely against people questioning Ortiz... I just think it's unfair to openly question him if you didn't do the same to Bautista, and it's particularly funny that he's now going out of his way to provide examples of why Bautista's performance isn't that rare.

We differ greatly (which is fine), and I understand its a philosophical approach to things. Maybe its because I've seen the inner workings of that world (Steroid, HGH, testosterone use). There's a huge, huge gap between someone who has used vs. someone who hasn't. Its not like drinking a powder, we're talking very invasive stuff, that one has to make a conscious decision to do. And that decision involves a ton of factors, including trading your future health for current gains. Once you make the decision to do it once, that's it. The line is crossed, and there's truly no going back. Its hard to describe. So for me, a previous confirmed positive, coupled with something considered extra-ordinary (such a late age success) is most certainly a red flag, and needs to be weighed rather heavily.

I'm not saying Bautista has not; however, there is no confirmed positive for him, so the same level of doubt should not be used for the two hitters. Or any hitters, for that matter. Ken Griffey could have very easily been using, but he never was implicated or confirmed, and therefore should receive a benefit of the doubt over someone who has.

 

[Scrub*]

Ortiz strike zone this season seems like the same size as altuve's or pedroia's. He gets alot of borderline calls , in fear of ortiz raging and breaking another dugout phone or anything else.

 

[Discoverer]

even this flawed look at wRC+ increases shows more than one very similar wRC+ improvements.

There are two that are somewhat close, and both are players with less than half a season of major league experience prior to that increase. Part of what makes Bautista's breakout so unprecedented is that he had a pretty extensive history of being not very good and was relatively old when he broke out. Literally every single player you listed was younger when he broke out and didn't break out to anywhere remotely close to the same extent.

If you want to include guys who were 25/26/27 when they had their big breakouts when comparing them to Bautista, you might want to consider looking at guys who had huge seasons at 38/39 when comparing them to Ortiz.

But, I know... Boston.

 

[metafour]

There's exactly as much precedent for what Ortiz is doing as there was for a 29-year-old utility infielder journeyman with a career high of 16 HR suddenly breaking out and hitting 54.

Cliff Lee went from backend starter to Cy Young pitcher at exactly the same age.

What Ortiz is doing is certainly more unprecedented. Don't forget that using raw stats (16 HR to 54) is pretty silly as Bautista had 200+ more at bats when he hit 54...he wasn't a full time starter prior to that season. The HR jump would be much smaller if he had the same amount of plate appearances.

Bautista undertook serious mechanical changes in his swing to unlock his unprecedented jump in production. At 29, this is possible. A 40 year old batter on the other hand somehow hitting even better than his otherwise great performance is significantly more suspect.

 

[Discoverer]

We differ greatly (which is fine), and I understand its a philosophical approach to things. Maybe its because I've seen the inner workings of that world (Steroid, HGH, testosterone use). There's a huge, huge gap between someone who has used vs. someone who hasn't. Its not like drinking a powder, we're talking very invasive stuff, that one has to make a conscious decision to do. And that decision involves a ton of factors, including trading your future health for current gains. Once you make the decision to do it once, that's it. The line is crossed, and there's truly no going back. Its hard to describe. So for me, a previous confirmed positive, coupled with something considered extra-ordinary (such a late age success) is most certainly a red flag, and needs to be weighed rather heavily.

I'm not saying Bautista has not; however, there is no confirmed positive for him, so the same level of doubt should not be used for the two hitters. Or any hitters, for that matter. Ken Griffey could have very easily been using, but he never was implicated or confirmed, and therefore should receive a benefit of the doubt over someone who has.

While I still lean towards assuming players are innocent until proven guilty (and I still believe the fact that he didn't do anything against the rules the first time should be taken into consideration), this is a perfectly fair and reasonable response. My frustration is mainly based on zeke's attempts to show how Bautista's breakout isn't that rare.

More importantly, though... Bo Bichette is finally back in the GCL lineup today and walked in his first PA.

 

[zeke]

There are two that are somewhat close, and both are players with less than half a season of major league experience prior to that increase. Part of what makes Bautista's breakout so unprecedented is that he had a pretty extensive history of being not very good and was relatively old when he broke out. Literally every single player you listed was younger when he broke out and didn't break out to anywhere remotely close to the same extent.

If you want to include guys who were 25/26/27 when they had their big breakouts when comparing them to Bautista, you might want to consider looking at guys who had huge seasons at 38/39 when comparing them to Ortiz.

But, I know... Boston.

There are literally countless examples of middling players turning elite in their late 20s.

There are zero examples of players matching career bests in their 40s.

 

[Discoverer]

Cliff Lee went from backend starter to Cy Young pitcher at exactly the same age.

What Ortiz is doing is certainly more unprecedented. Don't forget that using raw stats (16 HR to 54) is pretty silly as Bautista had 200+ more at bats when he hit 54...he wasn't a full time starter prior to that season. The HR jump would be much smaller if he had the same amount of plate appearances.

Bautista undertook serious mechanical changes in his swing to unlock his unprecedented jump in production. At 29, this is possible. A 40 year old batter on the other hand somehow hitting even better than his otherwise great performance is significantly more suspect.

Lee had a 3.8 fWAR season prior to his breakout, so he had shown an ability to be much more in the past.

The biggest difference between 2015 and 2016 Ortiz has been a .053 BABIP increase. That's 20 hits. With the same BABIP as last year, he would be having almost the exact same season, maybe with a couple extra HR.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Why Ortiz would go out and use PEDs this season is beyond me. He could have hypothetically finished the year with 15-20 HRs and his legacy wouldn't suffer one bit. If he did get caught this year his reputation would be ruined and he would likely face a long road to getting into Cooperstown.

 

[Discoverer]

There are literally countless examples of middling players turning elite in their late 20s.

Not anywhere close to as rapidly and unexpectedly as Bautista, nor to nearly the same extent.

There are zero examples of players matching career bests in their 40s.

Again, 39-year-olds don't count? Like I said before, Jim Thome's age 35-39 seasons are almost an identical trajectory to Ortiz's 36-40. And if you want a similar 36-40, look at Carlton Fisk.

 

[King Mapes]

There are literally countless examples of middling players turning elite in their late 20s.

There are zero examples of players matching career bests in their 40s.

Why would he use it in his final season and risk his name? It makes no sense.

 

[frost king]

A year ago, the Jays were 73-56 and 1 1/2 games ahead of the NYY. Today they are 74-56 and 2 games ahead of the Red Sox. They are marginally in better shape this year than last.

 

[Scrub*]

top OBP for players aged 40

1. Ty Cobb .440 1927
2. Willie Mays .425 1971
3. Rickey Henderson .423 1999
4. Sam Rice .407 1930
5. David Ortiz .407 2016
6. Edgar Martinez .406 2003
7. Moises Alou .392 2007
8. Pete Rose .391 1981
9. Dummy Hoy .389 1902
10. Harold Baines .387 1999


OPS
1. David Ortiz 1.040 2016
2. Ty Cobb .921 1927
3. Harold Baines .919 1999
4. Moises Alou .916 2007
5. Willie Mays .907 1971
6. Edgar Martinez .895 2003
7. Rickey Henderson .889 1999
8. Darrell Evans .880 1987
9. Dave Winfield .867 1992
10. Sam Rice .864 1930

 

[King Mapes]

A year ago, the Jays were 73-56 and 1 1/2 games ahead of the NYY. Today they are 74-56 and 2 games ahead of the Red Sox. They are marginally in better shape this year than last.

While true I actually like this team more. Our hitting has been inconsistent but can dominate and pitching is much better.

 

[ShaneFalco]

While true I actually like this team more. Our hitting has been inconsistent but can dominate and pitching is much better.

We also have more depth with guys like Barney, Upton, Pompey (possibly), Goins etc

 

[King Mapes]

We also have more depth with guys like Barney, Upton, Pompey (possibly), Goins etc

Upton was such a huge trade. Upton, Grilli, Benoit for like nothing. Crazy.

 

[Eyedea]

To be fair, the most accurate way to measure this argument would likely be ISO jump.

That said, no one should doubt what Bautista did is unprecedented. He has the record for biggest home run jump, and the assumption should be that the ISO record is his as well.

I'll actually give someone props if they can name who's record he broke in 2010...no googling allowed .

Cecil Fielder?

I Fangraphs'd it and came to that conclusion.

 

[zeke]

We also have more depth with guys like Barney, Upton, Pompey (possibly), Goins etc

Our depth was better last year. Depth has been a problem this year.

 

[HOCKEYGOON]

I am so confident in us walking away with the division..... Our pitching is a lot better than the O's and Redsox.

 

[theaub]

While true I actually like this team more. Our hitting has been inconsistent but can dominate and pitching is much better.

The thing I liked more about last year's team was you pretty much knew the Yankees were going in reverse and weren't catching them.

The Red Sox still scare me.

 

[Eyedea]

Our depth was better last year. Depth has been a problem this year.

I think Bautista not being Bautista has been the biggest problem.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Our depth was better last year. Depth has been a problem this year.

Disagree. We had guys like Colabello and Valencia playing the field at times when injuries occurred. Suzuki as a back-up.

 

[Cor]

I am so confident in us walking away with the division..... Our pitching is a lot better than the O's and Redsox.

Game 7 has ruined any confidence I could ever have in Toronto Sports Teams holding leads.

 

[zeke]

wRC+ 2015 --- 2016

Top of the Lineup / Expensive guys


Donaldson 154 ---- 162
Encarnacion 150 -- 141
Bautista 148 -------- 115
Martin 114 ----------- 106
Tulo/Reyes 92 ------- 109

A bit down, mainly bautista, but mostly made up by tulo's improvement. EE and Martin down a bit but trending back up to last year's mark.

Cheap/Depth Guys

Barney 26pa, 156 ----------- Paredes 17pa, 137
Cola 360pa, 143 ------------- Saunders 476pa, 126
Travis 238pa, 135 ---------- Travis 303pa, 115
Valencia 173pa, 127 ------ Smoal 313pa, 96
Tolleson 45pa, 110 -------- Barney 285pa, 86
Smoak 328pa, 108 -------- Pillar 463pa, 80
Revere 246pa, 102 -------- Carrera 257pa, 78
Hague 15pa, 98 ------------- Lake 39pa, 74
Pillar 628pa, 93 ------------- Upton 103pa, 64
Carrera 192pa, 90 ---------- Goins 184pa, 41
Goins 428pa, 85 ------------ Thole 132pa, 24
Navarro 192pa, 84 --------- Ceciliani 28pa, -5
Pompey 103pa, 81 -------- Cola 32pa, -39
Kawasaki 34pa, 69 -------- Burns 7pa, -51
Pennington 92pa, 53 ----- Dominguez 12pa, -82
Saunders 36pa, 47
Thole 52pa, 34
Diaz 16pa, 25



This year's depth hasn't come close to last year's depth production.

 

[Discoverer]

The big problem with the depth last year wasn't the offensive production, it was the versatility and defense.

 

[Eyedea]

2016 Blue Jays are miles better defensively, and the pitcher's fWAR has surpassed the 2015 mark already.