Blue Jays Discussion: Trade deadline: Aug 31 (no, not that one. The other one. The waiver one)

[StuckOutHere]

All of this catcher talk. We have an MVP winner on our team who was drafted as a catcher..just saying.

 

[zeke]

for the record, EE should be considered a 1B, not a DH. His defense has improved to legit good the past few years, and he's been a 5+war pace player while playing 1B and only a 3-4war pace player when DHing.

 

[theaub]

Edwin is a 1B that I still wouldn't want out there for more than four days a week with his back issues.

 

[phillipmike]

If it's a risk for a guy who's currently one of the best hitters in baseball, then it's probably a disaster for someone who plays the same position and whose OBP and SLG the last three years are identical to Yunel Escobar's.

I wont deny his 2014 and 2015 season werent great.

But maybe there are some reasons behind it;

peaking of 2013, it would be utterly remiss of me to overlook the impact of a serious concussion suffered by Mauer in August of 2013. While Mauer did have a mediocre season in 2014, he wasn't forthcoming with how much the concussion symptoms affected his vision, sometimes blurring his sight in both 2014 and 2015. The occasional blurry vision was accompanied with sensitivity to light, especially in 2014, impacting Mauer's ability to pick up the ball in the field and at the plate during day, and even with the bright stadium lights during night games. Curiously, his day game performance was significantly superior in 2014 (.777 OPS day, .698 OPS night), but much worse in 2015 (.670 OPS day, .748 OPS night). In any case, Mauer stated he really didn't communicate his issues with management or coaches.
So here we are today. Hampered by serious injury and health issues in 2011, and the impact of various post concussion symptoms in 2014 and even 2015 which Mauer stated have almost completely subsided for the 2016 season

Again i am not all too concerned with his 2014 or 2015 seasons because of injury. I am looking at his 2016 contributions which would be better than what we have. 2014 and 2015 might play in how i would project his future seasons but his 2016 would hold more weight as he might be better after injury.

As for lineup protection, it makes sense as a theory, but plenty of studies have shown that it doesn't exist, and I've never seen one that supports it. I don't think it's much of a matter of opinion anymore.

Not sure if there is a stat for it. But Mauer like most hitters has had better numbers with men on than no men on. I would agree that since the team around him isnt as good anymore he is hitting with no men on more than before making him susceptible to the shift.

As for Joe Mauer, he's been incredibly consistent in his xBABIP. Over his career, he has an unweighted annual xBABIP of .351, with only one season being more than 20pts away from that average. His actual unweighted annual BABIP is .339, which is only 12pts away from his career xBABIP. Mauer has only 4 full seasons where his actual BABIP and xBABIP differ by more than 25pts. Those seasons are 2005, 2011, 2014 and 2015. The concentration of those unlucky years is a little concerning, but weirder stuff has happened. So the surface, it would seem Mauer's luck the past couple years has been really tough, and that happens over the course of long careers. However, what if it's not just "luck" at work in regard to Mauer underperforming his xBABIP? There's a defensive technique often given credit for taking away hits from Mauer and that's the shift. Thanks to newer data at Fangraphs courtesy of Baseball Info Solutions, we can look at the dreaded shift and how it might be robbing Mauer, who often is criticized for not being good enough to adjust his plan at the plate to "beat the shift."

Take a look at the charts in the link.

http://www.twinkietown.com/2016/8/9/12418914/joe-mauer-circa-2016-just-who-is-this-guy

As we can see, Mauer basically went whomp, whomp, whomp all over the shift in 2014 and 2015, he's beaten the snot out of the shift throughout his career in general, but he is getting owned by it in 2016. To make its impact greater, he's seeing the shift a crazy 26.47% of the time this year! What does this mean? Well, to be honest, Mauer's probably getting double hosed on luck this year. Throughout his career, Mauer has beaten the shift and he's had an actual BABIP close to his xBABIP, but he's having a very bad year in both categories. Anyway, looking at this data was more in line with attempting to just explain whether or not the shift SHOULD be responsible for the difference between Mauer's BABIP and his xBABIP. Taking the career numbers into consideration, it's probably a fluke the shift has been so effective. In fact, most advanced metric research into the shift has concluded, in general, the shift isn't incredibly successful against MLB hitters, though it may have some impact (we're talking like 10pts of average at best)

The shift would be less of an issue if Mauer had runs on.

Mauer's (2004-2013) PAs:
Men on: 2594
None on: 2707
49% of the time he comes up there is a man on.

Mauer's (2014-2016) PAs:
Men on: 719
None on: 964
42% of the time he comes up there is a man on.

Mauer like most MLB hitters hit better with men on. When his team got worse with no talent around him he had less opportunities with men on (7%).

With the Jays he will have better chances to hit with men on and beat the shift. So maybe lineup protection was the wrong term to use. But Mauer or any player on low scoring team would/should benefit from hitting on a better team with better players as Mauer can improve on his low BABIP and beat the shift... something a player cant really do all that successfully with no one on.

Again, I don't disagree with the value of adding the player, I just vehemently disagree with the risk of taking on the contract.

For those reasons above i think he could be turning a corner. Might not be as good as before but his 2016 may not be an abbreviation making his 2017 and 2018 somewhat palatable.

 

[Longshot]

question: The end of August trade deadline is the waiver deadline to which you can still make trades afterwards but the players are not eligible for the playoffs. Is the end of July trade deadline similar in the sense that you can make trades without waivers during August but those players aren't eligible for the playoffs?

What is mean is like the end of August is the deadline for waiver trades to be made and be eligible for the playoffs but trades can stil be made afterward, is the end of July deadline similar in that it's the non waiver deadline for playoff eligibility but can non waiver trades happen afterwards and just not be eligible for the playoffs?

Basically can you make a non waiver trade in August and just not be eligible the playoffs

The short answer is: teams can make trades right up until the final day of the season. However, any player acquired after August 31 is not eligible for the playoffs.

If the Jays were to acquire a player in a trade today, he would be eligible for the playoff roster. If they made the same deal on Sept. 1, he would not be eligible.

Last year the Jays picked up Darwin Barney after the Aug. 31 deadline and used him the rest of the season.

In 1990, they acquired starter Bud Black in an effort to win the division.

I also seem to remember a few years ago the Boston Red Sox made a trade for a starting pitcher for the final day of the season. Either they had a double header or a make up game, with playoff implications and they made a trade essentially for one game. But it could have been another team.

 

[Discoverer]

For those reasons above i think he could be turning a corner. Might not be as good as before but his 2016 may not be an abbreviation making his 2017 and 2018 somewhat palatable.

To be worth $23 million per year, he would have to be worth ~3 fWAR.

To be a ~3 fWAR DH, he would have to have somewhere around a 135-140 wRC+.

This year, he's at 109, which is his best wRC+ in the last three years. He's, at best, a 2 fWAR player right now, so we're talking about something like $15 million of sunk value over the next two years, and that's if you think there's no more decline coming.

To me, you have to make a few assumptions to even consider claiming him on waivers:

1) That he's going to revert to the offensive beast he was 3+ years ago.
2) That he makes up some of that future negative value this year.
3) That ownership is going to increase payroll to a point where they will still have flexibility the next couple years.
4) That the Twins don't want the bad press of losing him for nothing, so they'll be willing to work out a trade where they eat a whole bunch of his future salary in order to get a prospect or two back.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Disagree

 

[GoonieFace]

Disagree

He should be hitting 1st or 2nd. If Travis is healthy I would bat Bautista 2nd, if Travis is injured, Bautista should lead off

 

[Eyedea]

Mauer is a 23m platoon bat. You could frankenstein 1B and come up with similar or better production for way cheaper.

vs L: .235/.304/.343, .287 wOBA, 75 wRC+.
vs R: .288/.395/.423, .351 wOBA, 119 wRC+.

vs L Options:
Chris Carter: .250/.374/.610, .407 wOBA, 152 wRC+, 2 more years of arbitration (currently making 2.5m).
Evan Gattis: .278/.328/.563, .364 wOBA, 131 wRC+, 5.2m team option and 100k buyout for 2017 season.
Robbie Grossman: .344/.427/.567, .423 wOBA, 169 wRC+, never played 1B (but sucks in OF), still has one more year of pre-arb.
Sean Rodriguez: .288/.413/.561, .409 wOBA, 160 wRC+, super utility, free agent this coming offseason.
Adam Rosales: .230/.348/.432, .344 wOBA, 110 wRC+, super utility, free agent this coming offseason.

vs R Options:
Matt Joyce: .271/.402/.548, .401 wOBA, 155 wRC+, never played 1B (mediocre OFer), free agent this coming offseason.
John Jaso: .268/.353/.384, .325 wOBA, 104 wRC+, still has one more year at 4m.
Tommy La Stella: .301/.387/.473, .369 wOBA, 130 wRC+, 2B/3B, one more year of pre-arb, but doesn't want to leave the Cubs?
Daniel Descalso: .289/.391/.415, .350 wOBA, 99 wRC+ (Coors Field), super utility, free agent after this year.
Justin Smoak: .222/.316/.429, .321 wOBA, 99 wRC+, signed a two year extension with the Jays.

 

[Longshot]

A top four of Travis, Bautista, Donaldson and EE is pretty good. Regardless of what lineup slots they take.

I like the idea of Bautista in the 1 slot for the opportunity it affords when the bottom of the order starts a rally. If two of the 7th, 8th and 9th hitters get on it's nice having Bautista coming up.

But, Travis is a nice option in that scenario too.

My lineup would be:

Travis
Donaldson
Bautista
EE
Saunders
Tulo
Martin
Smoak/Upton
Pillar

 

[phillipmike]

To be worth $23 million per year, he would have to be worth ~3 fWAR.

To be a ~3 fWAR DH, he would have to have somewhere around a 135-140 wRC+.

Mauer has done this before in 2013 when he was healthy and had runners getting on base for him. I am arguing that under the right circumstances (the Jays) he might be able to be a 3 WAR guy again. His walk rate is still impressive so he definitely still sees the ball well.

This year, he's at 109, which is his best wRC+ in the last three years. He's, at best, a 2 fWAR player right now, so we're talking about something like $15 million of sunk value over the next two years, and that's if you think there's no more decline coming.

Again you are not taking into account that i think he can be a much better hitter than a 109 and thats what it is all about. So i dont agree that he is at best a 2 fWAR player - maybe he is a 2 WAR player on the Twins. I think on the Jays he can be a 3 fWAR player maybe more. Again difference of opinions.

To me, you have to make a few assumptions to even consider claiming him on waivers:

1) That he's going to revert to the offensive beast he was 3+ years ago.
2) That he makes up some of that future negative value this year.
3) That ownership is going to increase payroll to a point where they will still have flexibility the next couple years.
4) That the Twins don't want the bad press of losing him for nothing, so they'll be willing to work out a trade where they eat a whole bunch of his future salary in order to get a prospect or two back.

Sure a lot has to happen. But its a discussion board - we are discussing the idea of bring in Mauer on the team for 2016. I would say there is a less than 1% chance it happens. But like i said if i were in charge know what he could bring to this team in 2016 i make the bet vs you who wouldnt. I respect that. But we arent discussing the logistics of how he can become a Jay rather does it make sense to consider/pursue him. I think he should be an intriguing bat and you dont.

If you are using this season as an indicator then the Jays just paid 13M for no value that Liriano would bring in 2017 as he had a 0 fWAR this season. So the Jays paid 13M for nothing next season. Which i doubt they expect to be the case. They are risking 13M; 1 because of the prospects they got and 2. they potentially see he can give them more value than what he has given in 2016. They wouldnt pay 13M for 2 prospects - they think they can make Liriano better.

Same can be said for Mauer.

 

[BertCorbeau]

A top four of Travis, Bautista, Donaldson and EE is pretty good. Regardless of what lineup slots they take.

I like the idea of Bautista in the 1 slot for the opportunity it affords when the bottom of the order starts a rally. If two of the 7th, 8th and 9th hitters get on it's nice having Bautista coming up.

But, Travis is a nice option in that scenario too.

My lineup would be:

Travis
Donaldson
Bautista
EE
Saunders
Tulo
Martin
Smoak/Upton
Pillar

Definitely want to see:

Travis
Donaldson
Bautista
EE

To lead off ... JD was MVP in the #2 spot last year and hasn't quite been himself lately - maybe with Bautista back, having him in that position will get him hot. Plus Bautista has typically been that #3 hitter himself. He may struggle off a bit off the DL right away but he's still a threat to drive in runs.

Donaldson - Bautista - EE was the core of the best offense in baseball last year ... It makes sense to me to line them up the same way and hope to recapture that heart of the line up. Then add in a resurged Tulo and a good-hitting Martin in the #5 and #6 spot, and maybe we'll see that offense kick it up a notch.

 

[Discoverer]

Mauer has done this before in 2013 when he was healthy and had runners getting on base for him. I am arguing that under the right circumstances (the Jays) he might be able to be a 3 WAR guy again. His walk rate is still impressive so he definitely still sees the ball well.

Three years is an eternity for players. Most of the time, when you have three years worth of stats, that's who the player is now. This isn't a Tulo situation where he's been slumping for 2-3 months.

And I think you're vastly underestimating the difference between the 2 WAR player he is now and the 3 WAR player you think he can become again. Playing in a better lineup may have an impact on some players, but it doesn't turn a player from Martin Prado to Josh Donaldson.

Again you are not taking into account that i think he can be a much better hitter than a 109 and thats what it is all about. So i dont agree that he is at best a 2 fWAR player - maybe he is a 2 WAR player on the Twins. I think on the Jays he can be a 3 fWAR player maybe more. Again difference of opinions.

I am taking that into account. I'm just disagreeing with it.

Sure a lot has to happen. But its a discussion board - we are discussing the idea of bring in Mauer on the team for 2016. I would say there is a less than 1% chance it happens. But like i said if i were in charge know what he could bring to this team in 2016 i make the bet vs you who wouldnt. I respect that. But we arent discussing the logistics of how he can become a Jay rather does it make sense to consider/pursue him. I think he should be an intriguing bat and you dont.

I'm not discussing anything different that you are. I'm giving you reasons that I don't think it makes sense to pursue him. He IS an intriguing bat... I didn't disagree with that... just not at anything close to what he's making.

If you are using this season as an indicator then the Jays just paid 13M for no value that Liriano would bring in 2017 as he had a 0 fWAR this season. So the Jays paid 13M for nothing next season. Which i doubt they expect to be the case. They are risking 13M; 1 because of the prospects they got and 2. they potentially see he can give them more value than what he has given in 2016. They wouldnt pay 13M for 2 prospects - they think they can make Liriano better.

Same can be said for Mauer.

Well, it's $13 million plus prospects rather than $46 million and no prospects, so they're very different. Either way, Liriano has been really good for three years and then struggled for a few months. There's much more reason to believe he'll bounce back than there is for someone who's been roughly the same guy for three years now.

 

[Deebo]

Sox lose again

 

[Del Preston]

Boston loses

 

[phillipmike]

Three years is an eternity for players. Most of the time, when you have three years worth of stats, that's who the player is now. This isn't a Tulo situation where he's been slumping for 2-3 months.

And I think you're vastly underestimating the difference between the 2 WAR player he is now and the 3 WAR player you think he can become again. Playing in a better lineup may have an impact on some players, but it doesn't turn a player from Martin Prado to Josh Donaldson.

Prado is a 3 WAR player. JD is 7-8 WAR. We agree Mauer is a 2 WAR player formerly 5-7. I am not asking for 4 WAR jump. I am expect a 1 WAR jump.. not hard to imagine. Maybe for you.

I am taking that into account. I'm just disagreeing with it.

Ok

I'm not discussing anything different that you are. I'm giving you reasons that I don't think it makes sense to pursue him. He IS an intriguing bat... I didn't disagree with that... just not at anything close to what he's making.

Ok. I agree with that.. now. But he is an intriguing bat now for 2016 and on a better team he could be close to what he is making. You disagree.

Well, it's $13 million plus prospects rather than $46 million and no prospects, so they're very different. Either way, Liriano has been really good for three years and then struggled for a few months. There's much more reason to believe he'll bounce back than there is for someone who's been roughly the same guy for three years now.

And i outline why we think that might be the case... Mauer has a bad team around him and had a concussion. So there are reasons to believe he can turn it around. Liriano on the other hand we have no idea. We can only assume he is healthy. He is just been bad.

 

[ACC1224]

Bautista back in tonight?

 

[Deebo]

Bautista back in tonight?

No word from the club yet.

EDIT: Wait, yes he is leading off and Travis is still out

 

[Scrub*]

Even a 'struggling' Bautista is 3rd in on base percentage on the team.

edit: oops , saunders passed him he's now 4th !

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[ACC1224]

No word from the club yet.

EDIT: Wait, yes he is leading off and Travis is still out

Thanks.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Boston lost so must take advantage tonight against a last place team.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Boston lost so must take advantage tonight against a last place team.

I am a Rays fan!!!
For now.....

 

[PuckMagi]

I would do:

Travis (2B)
Bautista (RF)
Donaldson (3B)
EE (1B)
Tulo (SS)
Martin (C)
Saunders (DH)
Pilar (CF)
Barney (LF)

 

[TF97]

I would do:

Travis (2B)
Bautista (RF)
Donaldson (3B)
EE (1B)
Tulo (SS)
Martin (C)
Saunders (DH)
Pilar (CF)
Barney (LF)

I'd keep Barney on the bench and use one of Upton/Smoak. I'd prefer to have Jose as the DH, although Saunders isn't exactly what you call a "good fielder" either.