Blue Jays Discussion: Trade deadline: Aug 31 (no, not that one. The other one. The waiver one)

[Eyedea]

Red Sox blow it in extras.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Nice! And a bit of a wake up call for the Jays.....you can't take anyone lightly

 

[ADifferentTim]

Nice! And a bit of a wake up call for the Jays.....you can't take anyone lightly

That's the AL East for ya. Even Baltimore is now 1 game back for the Division Crown.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Yu Darvish hit a 412 ft home run to centre tonight

 

[Cleetus]

Yu Darvish hit a 412 ft home run to centre tonight

haha sweet!!!

 

[Shimso]

Maybe a dumb question, but why are 200 level tickets slightly more expensive than 100 in some sections (on bluejays.com, not from resellers)?
E.g. for tmrw's game:
-Field Level Bases are $59 while 200 level bases - the section above the field level bases - are $60.
-Field Level Infield are $94, 200 Level Infield are $98.

Shouldn't the higher up sections be cheaper? Or is it that they have more shade if the dome is open?

 

[garce]

Maybe a dumb question, but why are 200 level tickets slightly more expensive than 100 in some sections (on bluejays.com, not from resellers)?
E.g. for tmrw's game:
-Field Level Bases are $59 while 200 level bases - the section above the field level bases - are $60.
-Field Level Infield are $94, 200 Level Infield are $98.

Shouldn't the higher up sections be cheaper? Or is it that they have more shade if the dome is open?

Not sure but don't ever sit on the first base side with the roof open. Watch on tv those people are cooking.

 

[The Nemesis]

Yu Darvish hit a 412 ft home run to centre tonight

Darvish's HR was the 5th given up by the Reds to an opposing pitcher all season long.

 

[Acekicker123]

Maybe a dumb question, but why are 200 level tickets slightly more expensive than 100 in some sections (on bluejays.com, not from resellers)?
E.g. for tmrw's game:
-Field Level Bases are $59 while 200 level bases - the section above the field level bases - are $60.
-Field Level Infield are $94, 200 Level Infield are $98.

Shouldn't the higher up sections be cheaper? Or is it that they have more shade if the dome is open?

Dynamic pricing. Depends on the particular demand and availability for that game. Changes almost daily.

Bit of an unusual situation, but there are probably less remaining 200 level tickets for whatever reason.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Jays are 0-55 in games they've lost this season

 

[Discoverer]

Jays are 0-55 in games they've lost this season

Real contenders find ways to win those games.

 

[Mach85]

Jays getting some press at Fangraphs lately - first Travis and now Stroman: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/marcus-stroman-best-pitcher-in-baseball/

Of course the title is hyperbolic, Stroman is not the best pitcher in baseball (that title is reserved for Clayton Kershaw for the foreseeable future), and there are several other guys who you easily take above him right now. But this highlights just how crazily well he's been pitching since his turnaround this season. It's especially nice to see that strikeout rate go up, the apparent pitching to contact thing was a bit concerning earlier in the season.

 

[phillipmike]

Joe Mauer would make more sense if you are upgrading at that position because then you can give big money to Edwin on shorter term rather then Votto. Or pay Bautista and Edwin vs only Votto.

Is this team better with a) Upton in RF, Edwin at 1B, Bautista at DH

Or

b) Bautista in RF - Mauer at 1B - Edwin at DH.

Even in scenario b) you have Bautista playing RF, which is not a favourable scenario.

There probably wouldn't be enough of an upgrade to justify the dollars, even if it is only 2 years for Mauer..

Reddick was the logical choice, but we just missed out apparently.

Team needs help on the left side now. I wouldnt risk claiming Votto and being stuck with that contract. Mauer i would put a claim on and if Minny let him go i would be happy.

He helps the lineup now. Could DH, play 1B and even be an emergency catcher. Plus he has an easy contract to pick up. 2 more years at 23M per.

Could let Edwin walk if someone is offering him 4-5 years. Maybe Jose takes a QO. Mauer is a good insurance plan this season and next. Last three seasons he is a 3 WAR over 650 PA, might be better moving to the Rogers centre and the AL East's parks.

 

[Discoverer]

Team needs help on the left side now. I wouldnt risk claiming Votto and being stuck with that contract. Mauer i would put a claim on and if Minny let him go i would be happy.

He helps the lineup now. Could DH, play 1B and even be an emergency catcher. Plus he has an easy contract to pick up. 2 more years at 23M per.

Could let Edwin walk if someone is offering him 4-5 years. Maybe Jose takes a QO. Mauer is a good insurance plan this season and next. Last three seasons he is a 3 WAR over 650 PA, might be better moving to the Rogers centre and the AL East's parks.

The last three seasons he has average 2.3 bWAR and 1.3 fWAR per 650 PA. Unless you're including his 5+ WAR 2013, which seems a bit silly since he's nothing like that player anymore.

He also hasn't caught a game in over three years now, so I think even referring to him as an "emergency catcher" is being generous.

He's exactly what people are concerned about Bautista turning into: a league average bat at 1B/DH. You don't intentionally pay those players $23 million.

 

[Mach85]

The last three seasons he has average 2.3 bWAR and 1.3 fWAR per 650 PA. Unless you're including his 5+ WAR 2013, which seems a bit silly since he's nothing like that player anymore.

He also hasn't caught a game in over three years now, so I think even referring to him as an "emergency catcher" is being generous.

He's exactly what people are concerned about Bautista turning into: a league average bat at 1B/DH. You don't intentionally pay those players $23 million.

Mauer is one of those guys who's worth more to one franchise than he is to others. Sentimentality, and a smaller market signing and homegrown, beloved "star" that they had to keep, but lost so much of his value when he moved out from behind the plate.

 

[Sokil]

Dynamic pricing. Depends on the particular demand and availability for that game. Changes almost daily.

Bit of an unusual situation, but there are probably less remaining 200 level tickets for whatever reason.

plus there are 200 level tickets by the westjet flight deck that are great, and 100s beneath it that are obstructed and ****** (ugh fml worst game ever)

 

[phillipmike]

The last three seasons he has average 2.3 bWAR and 1.3 fWAR per 650 PA. Unless you're including his 5+ WAR 2013, which seems a bit silly since he's nothing like that player anymore.

Got 2.8 when i was on baseball reference when you use their batter value numbers. Their numbers must be wrong then. Still he would be an upgrade for 2016 and a good buy low for 2017 and beyond.

He also hasn't caught a game in over three years now, so I think even referring to him as an "emergency catcher" is being generous.

Still more recent experience behind the plate if Thole and Martin go down in a game. Better than using Barney as Gibby has eluded to before if both went down in a game as Barney never caught an MLB game. Depth or experience at a position is never a bad thing. Martin hadnt played 2B since 2011 but when we had injuries in a game early in the season and we used him. If push came to shove and both our catchers were hurt - Mauer would be an option and likely better than anyone else we have on the roster at any given time.

He's exactly what people are concerned about Bautista turning into: a league average bat at 1B/DH. You don't intentionally pay those players $23 million.

Move is more for 2016 to balance the lineup. Not ideal but got to weigh which guys might get to us on waivers and might be likely other teams to let go. Mauer has been an above average MLB bat at 1B/DH this season. Which is what i am proposing for our 2016. He is showing signs of being better this year than 2014 and 2015. He would have the 2nd best on base percentage on the Jays right now. Plus he is on a short term deal (2 years left).

His numbers could get better hitting at the Rogers Centre throughout 2016 and his remaining 2 years. Gets some much needed protection in the lineup too. Something he hasnt had in 5 plus years.

 

[Sokil]

Got 2.8 when i was on baseball reference when you use their batter value numbers. Their numbers must be wrong then.

fWAR is from Fan Graphs, Baseball Reference's WAR is calculated differently (and called rWAR off site)

 

[Discoverer]

Still more recent experience behind the plate if Thole and Martin go down in a game. Better than using Barney as Gibby has eluded to before if both went down in a game as Barney never caught an MLB game. Depth or experience at a position is never a bad thing. Martin hadnt played 2B since 2011 but when we had injuries in a game early in the season and we used him. If push came to shove and both our catchers were hurt - Mauer would be an option and likely better than anyone else we have on the roster at any given time.

While I understand your point, the chances of losing both catchers in a single game are so slim that the added value of being an "emergency catcher" is essentially zero.

Move is more for 2016 to balance the lineup. Not ideal but got to weigh which guys might get to us on waivers and might be likely other teams to let go. Mauer has been an above average MLB bat at 1B/DH this season.

His wRC+ the last three years are 105, 94, 109. This year he's been OK, but that's not good for a 1B/DH. Among all 1B with at least 200 PA this year, he ranks 22nd in wRC+.

Which is what i am proposing for our 2016. He is showing signs of being better this year than 2014 and 2015. He would have the 2nd best on base percentage on the Jays right now. Plus he is on a short term deal (2 years left).

A short term deal for a ton of money and not much production.

His numbers could get better hitting at the Rogers Centre throughout 2016 and his remaining 2 years. Gets some much needed protection in the lineup too. Something he hasnt had in 5 plus years.

Maybe, but they would have to go up a whole hell of a lot to make him worth $23 million each of the next two years.

That seems somewhere in the vicinity of what Edwin's going to get (only Edwin will get more term). Now imagine Edwin had no power; that's Joe Mauer. I like the idea of adding a high OBP guy to the lineup, and I think Mauer himself is a really nice fit, but Minnesota would have to eat a lot of money just for the Jays to take on the contract, let alone giving anything up.

 

[phillipmike]

While I understand your point, the chances of losing both catchers in a single game are so slim that the added value of being an "emergency catcher" is essentially zero.

Until you need it.

Martin has played 2B and 3B for us because of injury and lineup move restrictions this year alone.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/171293122/russell-martin-plays-third-base-for-blue-jays/
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/180089558/jays-catcher-russell-martin-plays-second-base/

Got hurt in late July and we had no backup in a game Thole caught. Probably didnt need Barney last year - cant hurt to be prepared. Mauer being to catcher is only providing ancillary value. Not the main focus to get him. Rather his left handed bat, high on base and still a position of need in 2016.

His wRC+ the last three years are 105, 94, 109. This year he's been OK, but that's not good for a 1B/DH. Among all 1B with at least 200 PA this year, he ranks 22nd in wRC+.

On a bad MLB with no protection. He will be on a playoff team with the best protection in the league. 22nd in the MLB (i got 18th among 1Bs and 11th among DHs) but 2nd best after EE at 1B which would make him a decent DH for us. I am just trying to prove he is an upgrade to what we have, i dont think that can be disputed.

A short term deal for a ton of money and not much production.

Maybe, but they would have to go up a whole hell of a lot to make him worth $23 million each of the next two years.

That seems somewhere in the vicinity of what Edwin's going to get (only Edwin will get more term). Now imagine Edwin had no power; that's Joe Mauer. I like the idea of adding a high OBP guy to the lineup, and I think Mauer himself is a really nice fit, but Minnesota would have to eat a lot of money just for the Jays to take on the contract, let alone giving anything up.

My argument;

1. He is worth a lot of money - maybe more than he should be hence why i think he would be a target for him to get to us via waivers for us to claim. Because of that i think he would be available and an upgrade for 2016 - that is all.
2. Secondary value and not as important as my 1st point is that he could put up numbers that would make his 23M palatable. He is unlikely to outperform 23M (pretty much just needs to be 3 WAR player which isnt impossible). Im just saying i would take the risk based on what he would bring to our lineup in 2016. And if he brought something similar in 2017 and 2018 (im would be hoping for a bump in his numbers again which wouldnt be impossible).

His 109 WRC+ on a bad Twins team with no protection should get better on the Jays. - May take home point - he can get better on the Jays (like when the Pirates acquired Happ last season; they targeted an average pitcher who they thought they could improve). A 109 wRC+ puts him in between Tulo at 110 and Martin at 105 - Bautista at 114. 109 isnt awful coming from a lefty bat. And again i expect his numbers to get better if he was Jays hence why i would acquire him. At this point in the season you are looking for the buy low guys because not many get to you on waivers. Still has a great BB/SO rate.

I am strictly talking if we claimed him waivers. If we claimed him and Minny was willing to eat salary then i would jump on it. But worst case if you claimed him and they let him go for nothing i dont think it would be the end of the world. You would be adding another Tulo/Martin type bat with a high OBP from the left side for your WS run. I dont like 23M in 2017 and 2018 but its a risk i would take.
--------------------

Side note if you use Baseball Reference wRC+ he would be 5th ahead of Bautista, Tulo and Martin and just behind Travis.
He is hitting better as a DH which is better for EE as he hits better playing 1B.
Would be 2nd in walks behind Donaldson.
Currently has an OPS of .995 in August. But has been cold the last week.
http://www.foxsports.com/north/story/minnesota-twins-houston-astros-joe-mauer-brian-dozier-080816
http://www.twinkietown.com/2016/8/9/12418914/joe-mauer-circa-2016-just-who-is-this-guy

 

[Discoverer]

Got hurt in late July and we had no backup in a game Thole caught. Cant hurt to be prepared. Probably didnt need Pennington last year. Mauer being to catcher is only providing ancillary value. Not the main focus to get him. Rather his left handed bat, high on base and still a position of need.

Those are completely different situations. When's the last time a non-catcher caught even a single inning for the Jays? It's not something you should worry about. If Martin has some kind of long-term injury, Mauer is not going to help.

On a bad MLB with no protection. He will be on a playoff team with the best protection in the league. 22nd in the MLB (i got 18th among 1Bs and 11th among DHs) but 2nd best after EE at 1B which would make him a decent DH for us. I am just trying to prove he is an upgrade to what we have, i dont think that can be disputed.

The impact of lineup protection is extremely minimal, so I wouldn't expect much more than what he's done, but I didn't dispute that he's an upgrade. He is. And I would be perfectly happy to make that upgrade if it wasn't going to cost $23 million and/or prospects.

I am strictly talking if we claimed him waivers. If we claimed him and Minny was willing to eat salary then i would jump on it. But worst case if you claimed him and they let him go for nothing i dont think it would be the end of the world. You would be adding another Tulo/Martin type bat with a high OBP from the left side for your WS run. I dont like 23M in 2017 and 2018 but its a risk i would take.

I think you're underestimating the impact the added salary in 2017 and 2018 could have (unless there's a massive payroll increase coming). If you add that salary, then it would take a big salary increase just to retain any one of Bautista, Edwin or Saunders. It's one thing to take that risk for someone like Votto, but it's not a good risk to take for a players who's significantly worse than all of them.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Maybe a dumb question, but why are 200 level tickets slightly more expensive than 100 in some sections (on bluejays.com, not from resellers)?
E.g. for tmrw's game:
-Field Level Bases are $59 while 200 level bases - the section above the field level bases - are $60.
-Field Level Infield are $94, 200 Level Infield are $98.

Shouldn't the higher up sections be cheaper? Or is it that they have more shade if the dome is open?

A lot of the time it's a better view. It's like getting tickets to an nhl game in the front row vs 10 rows up. Jays tickets are always priced that way. The higher up sections above the 200 are cheaper. Keep in mind some of 200 level is over top of the 100 so sitting in the 100 level at that point isn't any better. What really sucks for me is now that everyone is on the bandwagon, I can no longer get my $5 tickets in the 500 level. I'm a 5 minute walk away and used to go to about 25 games a year. Just waited until about 10 minutes before the game starts, watch the ticket prices drop and buy mine lol. I still think the 200 level is the best to watch a game from IMO.

 

[phillipmike]

Those are completely different situations. When's the last time a non-catcher caught even a single inning for the Jays? It's not something you should worry about. If Martin has some kind of long-term injury, Mauer is not going to help.

Again i am talking on the short term.. In game perhaps. In the playoffs it could make a huge difference having a former catcher calling a game vs Barney.

The impact of lineup protection is extremely minimal, so I wouldn't expect much more than what he's done, but I didn't dispute that he's an upgrade. He is. And I would be perfectly happy to make that upgrade if it wasn't going to cost $23 million and/or prospects.

No real argument here. But i would disagree about lineup protection. Wont argue until im blue in the face because that is a difference of opinions like putting someone in a different spot in the batting order.

I think you're underestimating the impact the added salary in 2017 and 2018 could have (unless there's a massive payroll increase coming). If you add that salary, then it would take a big salary increase just to retain any one of Bautista, Edwin or Saunders. It's one thing to take that risk for someone like Votto, but it's not a good risk to take for a players who's significantly worse than all of them.

Its something you deal with in the off-season. I personally think they Jays 2017 will be higher if not then they went down a bad road with Liriano already. You have close to 50M (if not more) coming off the books this off-season. It a tough gamble but i would make it.

Like i said this deal is for 2016. Mauer makes team better in 2016 and anything he brings in 2017 would be a bonus and that includes if he gives us 110-115 wRC+ (and under the right circumstance i think he can give you more). I would be willing to bet he would be better than Saunder's career 99 OPS+ no matter what. EE is likely to get 4-5 years and to pay him that at 20-25M is a risk in itself for a DH. Who knows what Bautista goes for now.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Look who even Boston with thier great offence has hitting in the bottom 4 in the order today: Young, Hill, Shaw, and Holaday

 

[Discoverer]

EE is likely to get 4-5 years and to pay him that at 20-25M is a risk in itself for a DH.

If it's a risk for a guy who's currently one of the best hitters in baseball, then it's probably a disaster for someone who plays the same position and whose OBP and SLG the last three years are identical to Yunel Escobar's.

As for lineup protection, it makes sense as a theory, but plenty of studies have shown that it doesn't exist, and I've never seen one that supports it. I don't think it's much of a matter of opinion anymore.

Again, I don't disagree with the value of adding the player, I just vehemently disagree with the risk of taking on the contract.