GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread -- To trade or not to trade...

[Superstar]

The uncertainty of next years cap and FA market make this scenario seem really unlikely. Dubas won't take the risk IMO. He is either in or out on a player and the idea that he would delay a Rielly resolution for future negotiation next year seems out of character. He isn't a gambler, he has a strategy in mind and is more likely to deal fringe assets than risk another established player loss.

He did that with Hyman...loss him for nothing...didn't even wanted a late pick from Edmonton for that extra year.

 

[deprw]

If we value Rielly enough we make room for him next summer. We don't have to worry about it now, so we can sign him to fair contract now, if we want to. Next summer we know if Sandin and Liljegren are ready, so we can have them as cheap bottom pair. We can trade Marner for futures and utilize that cap space to Rielly and UFAs. If Kampf succeeds we can trade Kerfoot.

I wouldn't worry about next years cap situation too much if we see Rielly as best option to move forward with. If we look up to 2022 UFA class, there are players like Parayko, Letang, Klingberg, Subban, Giordano, Ristolainen, Pulock and Manson. I think first three are signed by their teams before their contracts are up. Then there is few older options and few question marks.

Are we comfortable giving up let's say 7 millions to Pulock or Ristolainen. Five millions for too many years for Subban or Giordano, who may get signed by Kraken during next season. Or do we bite our bullet and sign Rielly for reasonable contract and worry about our 2022-2023 cap situation next summer.

When eyeing that 2022 UFA class I think about Giordano and Kraken as trade target for Rielly. Though I don't know how much futures we could gain in that trade, but we could get replacement for next season and Kraken would get defender to build around their defense long term. I'd prefer to keep Rielly, but depending of money Rielly is looking after. That trade would be little make over for next season and give us some experience on our back end.

 

[deprw]

He did that with Hyman...loss him for nothing...didn't even wanted a late pick from Edmonton for that extra year.

Like Dubas said no one would help him in that situation for free, so there are some fixed prices for cap space between GMs. Like we have seen during trade deadlines. So if you want have some leverage in the future, you have to stay firm sometimes or other GMs will walk over you in the future.

 

[horner]

And losing Rielly leaves a gaping hole on d. Which do you think will be more affordable to fill? 1D or 3C?

Losing those assets to trade for another is not a smart move .

 

[613Leafer]

With Rielly, I feel like Dubas is probably thinking that if the Leafs lose early in the playoffs again, he's going to get canned, so what does he care if Rielly walks for nothing. And if the Leafs do well (i.e. at minimum make it to the Conference Finals), then Dubas probably won't get too much flak if Rielly walks for nothing.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

With Rielly, I feel like Dubas is probably thinking that if the Leafs lose early in the playoffs again, he's going to get canned, so what does he care if Rielly walks for nothing. And if the Leafs do well (i.e. at minimum make it to the Conference Finals), then Dubas probably won't get too much flak if Rielly walks for nothing.

This is how I see it as well. We are maximizing next season. There isn't an outcome where he's traded and we are better next year. He's not thinking about next year's contracts either.

 

[dubplatepressure]

With Rielly, I feel like Dubas is probably thinking that if the Leafs lose early in the playoffs again, he's going to get canned, so what does he care if Rielly walks for nothing. And if the Leafs do well (i.e. at minimum make it to the Conference Finals), then Dubas probably won't get too much flak if Rielly walks for nothing.

And the way I see it, if Dubas does let Rielly walk for free and we don't make at least the conference finals, that 100% is his job. At least if he trades Rielly he can stake a claim with his next prospective team that he left us in a competitive state.

It is critical that we trade him and recover assets we can use to continue to remain competitive.

 

[ToneDog]

With Rielly, I feel like Dubas is probably thinking that if the Leafs lose early in the playoffs again, he's going to get canned, so what does he care if Rielly walks for nothing. And if the Leafs do well (i.e. at minimum make it to the Conference Finals), then Dubas probably won't get too much flak if Rielly walks for nothing.

That actually might be the worst outcome for this team going forward. Low draft pick, Rielly walks for nothing, lose a top prospect (we got two picks) at the TDL and retain Dubas and Shanny.

 

[smitty10]

And the way I see it, if Dubas does let Rielly walk for free and we don't make at least the conference finals, that 100% is his job. At least if he trades Rielly he can stake a claim with his next prospective team that he left us in a competitive state.

It is critical that we trade him and recover assets we can use to continue to remain competitive.

Look what CBJ got for the rights to Jones. I don't think there's any scenario where he walks for nothing.

 

[123offtheglass]

Here's a possibility for the 2022 offseason:

Seattle & Toronto sign & trade involving both Mark Giordano & Morgan Rielly (Leafs also get extra pick compensation)

 

[ToneDog]

Look what CBJ got for the rights to Jones. I don't think there's any scenario where he walks for nothing.

CBJ did not trade Jones' rights to the Hawks, they traded Jones who had one year left on his contract.

 

[ToneDog]

Here's a possibility for the 2022 offseason:

Seattle & Toronto sign & trade involving both Mark Giordano & Morgan Rielly (Leafs also get extra pick compensation)

That would be OK but not so much given what you could potentially get for Rielly today based on what CBJ got for Jones.

 

[Brobust]

With Rielly, I feel like Dubas is probably thinking that if the Leafs lose early in the playoffs again, he's going to get canned, so what does he care if Rielly walks for nothing. And if the Leafs do well (i.e. at minimum make it to the Conference Finals), then Dubas probably won't get too much flak if Rielly walks for nothing.

The only way Dubas gets fired is if the leafs aren't a playoff team next season.

If they're a 100 point team and flame out in the 1st round again, he's still safer than any player on the roster.

 

[123offtheglass]

That would be OK but not so much given what you could potentially get for Rielly today based on what CBJ got for Jones.

Oh yea 100%

Ristolainen got a solid return too considering it's Ristolainen.

 

[The Apologist]

Losing those assets to trade for another is not a smart move .

Neither is losing them without being able to replace them, or replacing them with a lesser talent for similar or more money.

Again, which is easier to replace? Rielly at 8 or less? Or Kerfoot for 4 or less?
Any legit replacement for Rielly is going to cost us 9+

 

[hockeynorth]

I haven’t even seen any Rielly trade chatter in the news

 

[kb]

Why are we even discussing Rielly?

It's to ******* late to sort out now, that bus has well and truly left the station

I seriously doubt we can afford to resign him so enjoy him this season and wave goodbye as he walks for nothing next off-season

Leafs mismanagement, you can't beat it

You obviously missed the part where Dubas said he was going to meet in August with Rielly's team to see if there was common ground.

And you obviously missed the part where the Leafs couldn't sign him to an extension until after free agency opened.

And you must have missed all the big dollar signings of UFA D-man.

Now tell me again, how did they mismanage it? It appears from this vantage point that the only thing mismanaged was your expectations, and your understanding of how the business side of hockey works. They could ask him what he was looking for, but UFA changes things in a hurry unless we are living in some imaginary la-la land where fans can assign a value and then get pissed off at the GM for not meeting that expectation. That describes 80% of this board.

 

[ToneDog]

I haven’t even seen any Rielly trade chatter in the news

And I doubt you hear much, given this is when teams pretty much shut it down for the summer. The window to move Rielly has closed but it should re-open near the beginning of training camp and wider once the season starts. Would be nice if one of our "tough-meadia" folks could ask Dubas what his plans for Rielly are given that the cost for top dmen has risen significantly and we are up against the cap.

 

[ottomaddox]

And I doubt you hear much, given this is when teams pretty much shut it down for the summer. The window to move Rielly has closed but it should re-open near the beginning of training camp and wider once the season starts. Would be nice if one of our "tough-meadia" folks could ask Dubas what his plans for Rielly are given that the cost for top dmen has risen significantly and we are up against the cap.

I fear an own rental/no return situation once again. Dubas will sight Rielly's salary coming off the books as the silver lining. He'll need that money for: Campbell, UFAs, Sandin, etc.

 

[Legion34]

He did that with Hyman...loss him for nothing...didn't even wanted a late pick from Edmonton for that extra year.

And he said he is not comfortable doing that with rielly.

 

[hockeynorth]

I highly doubt we see Rielly walk for nothing

 

[hockeynorth]

Some mock Rielly trades:

CGY: Noah Hanifin/Rasmus Andersson + top 10 protected 2022 1st + Cameron Whynot

LA: Adrian Kempe + Mikey Anderson + Akil Thomas

SEA: Vince Dunn + Jared McCann + top 10 protected 2022 1st

(we also send them Engvall for cap purposes)

MIN: Matt Dumba + Marat Khusnutdinov + 2023 2nd

STL: Robert Thomas + Tyler Tucker + 2023 1st

NYI: Noah Dobson + conditional 1st (make playoffs) + Tristan Lennox

NYR: K'Andre Miller + 2022 1st + Ryder Korczak

PIT: Pierre-Oliver Joseph/John Marino + 2022 1st + 2023 2nd

BOS: Matt Grzelcyk + 2022 1st + Zach Senyshen

FLA: Gustav Forsling + Owen Tippett/Grigori Denisenko + 2023 2nd (becomes a 1st if FLA makes conference finals in either of the next two years)

These are the types of deals, and also the teams, I'd expect Rielly to go for. My personal preference would be in a deal for a dman with potential.

 

[Duke16]

Some mock Rielly trades:

CGY: Noah Hanifin/Rasmus Andersson + top 10 protected 2022 1st + Cameron Whynot

LA: Adrian Kempe + Mikey Anderson + Akil Thomas

SEA: Vince Dunn + Jared McCann + top 10 protected 2022 1st

(we also send them Engvall for cap purposes)

MIN: Matt Dumba + Marat Khusnutdinov + 2023 2nd

STL: Robert Thomas + Tyler Tucker + 2023 1st

NYI: Noah Dobson + conditional 1st (make playoffs) + Tristan Lennox

NYR: K'Andre Miller + 2022 1st + Ryder Korczak

PIT: Pierre-Oliver Joseph/John Marino + 2022 1st + 2023 2nd

BOS: Matt Grzelcyk + 2022 1st + Zach Senyshen

FLA: Gustav Forsling + Owen Tippett/Grigori Denisenko + 2023 2nd (becomes a 1st if FLA makes conference finals in either of the next two years)

These are the types of deals, and also the teams, I'd expect Rielly to go for. My personal preference would be in a deal for a dman with potential.

The optics of getting McCann back in a deal where Rielly moves might not be good to some, but McCann and Dunn in for Rielly and Engvall would be very nice as soon as this season. I do like Dobson as a basis quite a bit as well.

 

[Mugzy97]

I haven’t even seen any Rielly trade chatter in the news

That’s because he isn’t going anywhere

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

He did that with Hyman...loss him for nothing...didn't even wanted a late pick from Edmonton for that extra year.

I think I would much rather have the oilers overpay Hyman than have a measly 6th round pick. The oilers being tighter against the cap helps us more than a pick that statisticly doesn't have much of a chance of becoming an NHLer. Why help them?

They have now overpaid Hyman, Nurse and Ceci this off season. They are up against the cap and aren't really any more competitive with no depth scoring , a mediocre defense and a 40 yr old goalie as their starter and a way overpaid backup.