GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread -- To trade or not to trade...

[Torontonian]

If Seattle wants Rielly, I want Oleksiak and draft picks.

That’s my ideal trade for Rielly. A bit of a lesser top 4 d-man and futures.

The deal Oleksiak signed makes it a no go, 4.6x5. I wouldn't put him in the top 4 catagory, hes a solid number 5 D that can play play top 4 if someone gets hurt for abit, having him in the top 4 consistently wouldn't go over well.

 

[Cor]

The deal Oleksiak signed makes it a no go, 4.6x5. I wouldn't put him in the top 4 catagory, hes a solid number 5 D that can play play top 4 if someone gets hurt for abit, having him in the top 4 consistently wouldn't go over well.

Oleksiak is definitely a top 4 d-man.

He gets strong results on both the offensive and defensive side against pretty solid competition. Gets good results on the penalty kill as well. He’s continued to improve year over year as well.

 

[deprw]

A futures package would have made more sense earlier in the offseason if it was made in combination with signing a Dougie Hamilton for free. Like a quick double dip to get futures and an upgrade. Doesn't work so well now.

Hamilton wouldn't have solved our problems and fans would have crucified him sooner rather than later, when they realize how soft he is. His good replacement for Subban in NJ. Being overpaid and valued there.

Some moan about Ritchie being ex-Bruin and someone they got rid of. Hamilton is also Bruins sloppy second and I think they had reason to trade him.

Good player not someone that is part of winning core. Better overpay Rielly without those futures, than sign Hamilton.

 

[Stephen]

Hamilton wouldn't have solved our problems and fans would have crucified him sooner rather than later, when they realize how soft he is. His good replacement for Subban in NJ. Being overpaid and valued there.

Some moan about Ritchie being ex-Bruin and someone they got rid of. Hamilton is also Bruins sloppy second and I think they had reason to trade him.

Good player not someone that is part of winning core. Better overpay Rielly without those futures, than sign Hamilton.

It’s not about a value judgement on Hamilton vs Rielly. It’s about pivoting away from Rielly while trying to replenish the prospect pool by using money as we entered a pressure point with Rielly’s contract set to retire. And for now that time has passed because there’s nobody we can plug in his role.

 

[rumman]

Yeah I'd be all over that. You can't let him walk

“We can and we will.”

 

[Brobust]

I think if Rielly does get shopped, Montreal and LA will make the most aggressive offers.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Reilly has to be traded for another Dman.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Reilly has to be traded for another Dman.

Meaning we have to replace him with a meaner, defensive top 2. We likely have to add to the deal.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Meaning we have to replace him with a meaner, defensive top 2. We likely have to add to the deal.

Not exactly. We could sacrifice offense. Brodie is extremely solid. We did play an entire season with Ron Hainsey on our top pair.

 

[CupcakeSprinkles]

I'd look to move Rielly to a team like Seattle with Vince Dunn coming back our way. He's not an RFA coming off his 2 year deal, but I do think there is upside to attain him and a couple other quality pieces (1st + prospect, roster player). There's a good chance I can see Dunn re-signing with the Leafs as a Mississauga kid.

This is obviously pending that Rielly ask is too high. I'd prefer to re-sign him, but like always the price needs to be right.

 

[Stephen]

I'd look to move Rielly to a team like Seattle with Vince Dunn coming back our way. He's not an RFA coming off his 2 year deal, but I do think there is upside to attain him and a couple other quality pieces (1st + prospect, roster player). There's a good chance I can see Dunn re-signing with the Leafs as a Mississauga kid.

This is obviously pending that Rielly ask is too high. I'd prefer to re-sign him, but like always the price needs to be right.

I wonder if there's a deal to be made with Rielly on the following conditions:

We sign you to a 2 year extension at $7.5 million, and top you up when the cap goes up post-pandemic. Kick the problem down the road and let him hit free agency again before he's 30.

 

[Dreakmur]

I wonder if there's a deal to be made with Rielly on the following conditions:

We sign you to a 2 year extension at $7.5 million, and top you up when the cap goes up post-pandemic. Kick the problem down the road and let him hit free agency again before he's 30.

They don’t really have the cap space for that. I’m not sure they’ll clear contacts to make room for a short term deal.

Most of the contracts coming off the books that summer are rather small, and some of them will require raises to retain.

 

[Stephen]

They don’t really have the cap space for that. I’m not sure they’ll clear contacts to make room for a short term deal.

Most of the contracts coming off the books that summer are rather small, and some of them will require raises to retain.

They wouldn't need to clear the cap space until 2022-23. Kessel comes off the books at $1.2 million which gets Rielly automatically up to $6.2 million. If the cap goes up $1 million, that's $7.2 million.

 

[Dreakmur]

They wouldn't need to clear the cap space until 2022-23. Kessel comes off the books at $1.2 million which gets Rielly automatically up to $6.2 million. If the cap goes up $1 million, that's $7.2 million.

Then give Campbell a raise. Then give Sandin a raise after we load him up with PP points with undeserving PP time.

 

[deprw]

It’s not about a value judgement on Hamilton vs Rielly. It’s about pivoting away from Rielly while trying to replenish the prospect pool by using money as we entered a pressure point with Rielly’s contract set to retire. And for now that time has passed because there’s nobody we can plug in his role.

With Pietrangelo that would have been viable and good option to explore, but I wouldn't want to tie our money to Hamilton for 7 years. I see too many risks of ending to Phaneuf situation, where our #1 D is actually #3 D but is paid like former and because of that everyone hates him. At least Rielly is good #2 D in this league you can trust and have good personality. Hope of him elevating his game is diminishing, but I think we have seen full potential of Hamilton already.

 

[Avilaj07]

Dunn is my target if Rielly is moved. Would be a solid top 4 addition to our defense, can be locked in long term at a fraction of the price of resigning Rielly, and gaining assets as well.

 

[Dreakmur]

Dunn is my target if Rielly is moved. Would be a solid top 4 addition to our defense, can be locked in long term at a fraction of the price of resigning Rielly, and gaining assets as well.

Dunn has never been a top-4 defenseman. Flashes of potential and regularly not living up to it. If he’s better than Dermott, it’s not by much.

 

[Duke16]

Dunn has never been a top-4 defenseman. Flashes of potential and regularly not living up to it. If he’s better than Dermott, it’s not by much.

They have both crushed a 3rd pairing role, but Dunn crushes it more and produces better. I think he could definitely settle into being a Matt Grzelcyk-type player and drive a 2nd pair, but more offensively-oriented. A Dunn, McCann+ package actually looks pretty good for the Leafs imo, but I also wouldn't mind going for a more prominent young D that projects higher (like Dobson) as a main piece.

 

[WTFMAN99]

They have both crushed a 3rd pairing role, but Dunn crushes it more and produces better. I think he could definitely settle into being a Matt Grzelcyk-type player and drive a 2nd pair, but more offensively-oriented. A Dunn, McCann+ package actually looks pretty good for the Leafs imo, but I also wouldn't mind going for a more prominent young D that projects higher (like Dobson) as a main piece.

Think they're likely to lose Mayfield and Dobson steps into the top 4 role.

That or Pulock leaves.

 

[nuck]

It’s not about a value judgement on Hamilton vs Rielly. It’s about pivoting away from Rielly while trying to replenish the prospect pool by using money as we entered a pressure point with Rielly’s contract set to retire. And for now that time has passed because there’s nobody we can plug in his role.

I don't see the value add with Hamilton. His offense over the last few years is similar to Mo's and I think the Canes play a little better team defense which makes their D look a bit shinier. Better shot and better goal scorer but he has 6ppg over the last 3 seasons to Rielly's 4 so he doesn't reset the dead Leaf pp. I think the Devils paid a bottom feeder premium for Dougie but best case there is still a $1 million extra cost for the UFA so they can't afford him anyway.

The concept of move away from Mo for me is the cap situation. If you consider the big 4 as a fact of life for the next couple of years then any extra spending on D leaves them scooping poop to build their bottom six every year. Because there are no 7 or 8 year deals they don't have any cost certainty after 23-24 and if Matthews is extended Marner will want something similar again so the rising cap won't help them because the big 3 will eat it up. Another $6+ deal for 7 or 8 years overlaps with the re-sign of those forwards and with the expiration of the Muzzin and Brodie deals.

I just don't think they can afford him period because the salaries paid for the big 4 relied on cap growth that didn't happen. They need to move Rielly for either a cheaper top 4 D or the assets to require that D. They need to add a value contract to replace him because the only ones they have now are Spezza and Campbell.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I don't see the value add with Hamilton. His offense over the last few years is similar to Mo's and I think the Canes play a little better team defense which makes their D look a bit shinier. Better shot and better goal scorer but he has 6ppg over the last 3 seasons to Rielly's 4 so he doesn't reset the dead Leaf pp. I think the Devils paid a bottom feeder premium for Dougie but best case there is still a $1 million extra cost for the UFA so they can't afford him anyway.

The concept of move away from Mo for me is the cap situation. If you consider the big 4 as a fact of life for the next couple of years then any extra spending on D leaves them scooping poop to build their bottom six every year. Because there are no 7 or 8 year deals they don't have any cost certainty after 23-24 and if Matthews is extended Marner will want something similar again so the rising cap won't help them because the big 3 will eat it up. Another $6+ deal for 7 or 8 years overlaps with the re-sign of those forwards and with the expiration of the Muzzin and Brodie deals.

I just don't think they can afford him period because the salaries paid for the big 4 relied on cap growth that didn't happen. They need to move Rielly for either a cheaper top 4 D or the assets to require that D. They need to add a value contract to replace him because the only ones they have now are Spezza and Campbell.

I probably said this last summer but I have to imagine short of a conference final appearance, they're going to have to face reality and move on from one of them. I don't even think 88 qualifies as "big" anymore, he'd get more on the open market.

 

[firstemperor]

Not very high on Dunn, that would be a terrible return for Rielly. That's less value to us (as a team), for Rielly to just play the year out for us because we're in a win-now disposition. I think I'm resigned to Rielly walking.....the only trade that would move the needle for us a bit is something like Hanifin as a return.

Otherwise, I was ok with moving Rielly for futures if we made a move during/around the expansion draft/free agency but it no longer makes sense. For instance, any of Gio, Oleksiak, Larsson, Hamilton to replace the loss of Rielly would have worked.

 

[Stephen]

I don't see the value add with Hamilton. His offense over the last few years is similar to Mo's and I think the Canes play a little better team defense which makes their D look a bit shinier. Better shot and better goal scorer but he has 6ppg over the last 3 seasons to Rielly's 4 so he doesn't reset the dead Leaf pp. I think the Devils paid a bottom feeder premium for Dougie but best case there is still a $1 million extra cost for the UFA so they can't afford him anyway.

The concept of move away from Mo for me is the cap situation. If you consider the big 4 as a fact of life for the next couple of years then any extra spending on D leaves them scooping poop to build their bottom six every year. Because there are no 7 or 8 year deals they don't have any cost certainty after 23-24 and if Matthews is extended Marner will want something similar again so the rising cap won't help them because the big 3 will eat it up. Another $6+ deal for 7 or 8 years overlaps with the re-sign of those forwards and with the expiration of the Muzzin and Brodie deals.

I just don't think they can afford him period because the salaries paid for the big 4 relied on cap growth that didn't happen. They need to move Rielly for either a cheaper top 4 D or the assets to require that D. They need to add a value contract to replace him because the only ones they have now are Spezza and Campbell.

I think the pivot to Hamilton from Rielly would be the equivalent of a sign Curtis Joseph, trade Felix Potvin for Bryan Berard type of move.

There’s no judgement on whether Hamilton is better than Rielly or not but leveraging money to replace a guy you can trade out for futures, thus adding assets to the prospect pool via movement and having a similar caliber player on the roster.

This thought process would have been based on a flat stagnant cap and lower salary demands slotting behind what Petro got last summer. But the fact that salaries for defensemen are skyrocketing means all this goes out the window.

At this rate I think the best course of action to protect our assets is to re-sign Rielly to a short term deal with the ability for him to chase a bigger contract when the cap starts to rise. And you keep the possibility of trading him down the line.

 

[ToneDog]

I think the pivot to Hamilton from Rielly would be the equivalent of a sign Curtis Joseph, trade Felix Potvin for Bryan Berard type of move.

There’s no judgement on whether Hamilton is better than Rielly or not but leveraging money to replace a guy you can trade out for futures, thus adding assets to the prospect pool via movement and having a similar caliber player on the roster.

This thought process would have been based on a flat stagnant cap and lower salary demands slotting behind what Petro got last summer. But the fact that salaries for defensemen are skyrocketing means all this goes out the window.

At this rate I think the best course of action to protect our assets is to re-sign Rielly to a short term deal with the ability for him to chase a bigger contract when the cap starts to rise. And you keep the possibility of trading him down the line.

Assuming Rielly can easily get 8mx7 as a UFA, what can the Leafs offer on a shorter term deal to make it worth the risk to turn down 8x7?? Certainly not more money in which case, I do not see it.

 

[Stephen]

Assuming Rielly can easily get 8mx7 as a UFA, what can the Leafs offer on a shorter term deal to make it worth the risk to turn down 8x7?? Certainly not more money in which case, I do not see it.

Rielly isn’t really an $8 million defenseman though. Notwithstanding the Nurse overpay, which is an entirely different Canadian market dysfunction, and even then you can make the argument that Nurse is 6’4” and there’s a different premium to that size of player, Rielly really didn’t continue on the trajectory of his 70+ point season back in 2019.

So it really just comes down to do you want to be here and we can accommodate you, and if not then we have to trade him by training camp.