GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread -- To trade or not to trade...

[ToneDog]

I don't think we'd have the currency to get it done, but there is an interesting trade scenario... Kaprizov is looking for a 3 x $8 mil deal. Minnesota wants a longer commitment, Kaprizov wants to be walked to UFA. So, Minny signs him to the 3 x $8 mil, turns around and trades him at 50%.

Funny enough, if we moved Kerfoot, we could actually do such a deal, though the cost would be ridiculous.

It will take Matthews @75% to get Kaprizov. Maybe Marner @ 50%.

 

[dubplatepressure]

It will take Matthews @75% to get Kaprizov. Maybe Marner @ 50%.

Maybe not that much lol... But I agree would need Marner. Maybe with all Marners bonuses they would actually do that @ 100% now.

 

[showtime8]

Makes sense. My concern is that he also gave up futures to go "all-in" in an attempt to win a round or "save his job". Even if they keep Rielly and Dubas manages not to get fired, Rielly walks and then what ?? Dubas is a dead man walking and he knows it. Too bad somebody higher up doesn't see it or acted after the embarrassing choke job the boys he bet his job on did a second time in as many years. So let's try it again. Sigh.

If you take a look back at last season leading up to the trade deadline, the whole narrative from the fanbase was that they should be acquiring guys to put them over the hump. It's easy to talk in hindsight that everything was done to save his job, but at the time, the message was that the Leafs are the top of the very weak North division and to go on a run in the playoffs, they needed to beat a weak Montreal team that couldn't score and a Winnipeg team that doesn't have a great defense.

IMO, there is a no win scenario for Dubas with Rielly. If he gets traded, then it will be he's trading a number one defenseman on a team that has trouble developing d-men or he's going to sign him to a contract similar to what Hamilton got and he's not worth that or he lets him walk to free agency - got nothing for him except a 1st round exit and he's terrible with asset management. Pick the narrative. It's going to be 1 of those 3.

 

[Fogelhund]

If you take a look back at last season leading up to the trade deadline, the whole narrative from the fanbase was that they should be acquiring guys to put them over the hump. It's easy to talk in hindsight that everything was done to save his job, but at the time, the message was that the Leafs are the top of the very weak North division and to go on a run in the playoffs, they needed to beat a weak Montreal team that couldn't score and a Winnipeg team that doesn't have a great defense.

IMO, there is a no win scenario for Dubas with Rielly. If he gets traded, then it will be he's trading a number one defenseman on a team that has trouble developing d-men or he's going to sign him to a contract similar to what Hamilton got and he's not worth that or he lets him walk to free agency - got nothing for him except a 1st round exit and he's terrible with asset management. Pick the narrative. It's going to be 1 of those 3.

It doesn't matter which option Dubas chooses, it will be ammo for half of the posters to lynch him. It's always going to be the wrong choice.

 

[ACC1224]

It doesn't matter which option Dubas chooses, it will be ammo for half of the posters to lynch him. It's always going to be the wrong choice.

I don't think that's true. There is a small group that hates everything he does, just as there is a small group that loves everything he does. Problem being both sides post a lot and bring the same thoughts to every thread regardless of the topic.

Most are in the middle just wishing both of those groups would just go away.

 

[ErnieLeafs]

I don't think that's true. There is a small group that hates everything he does, just as there is a small group that loves everything he does. Problem being both sides post a lot and bring the same thoughts to every thread regardless of the topic.

Most are in the middle just wishing both of those groups would just go away.

entirely perfect summation, here

 

[ToneDog]

Maybe not that much lol... But I agree would need Marner. Maybe with all Marners bonuses they would actually do that @ 100% now.

They might be is worse cap hell than us after buying out Suter and Parise. No way they can absorb $11m cap hit I think. They might move heaven on earth for Matty but not Marner IMO.

 

[ToneDog]

It doesn't matter which option Dubas chooses, it will be ammo for half of the posters to lynch him. It's always going to be the wrong choice.

I think they eventually move Kerfoot to free up cap space. If they do not believe in Rielly they should move him. Allowing him to walk is the worst option IMO. Any honest Leaf fan won't be happy with that whether they love or hate Dubas.

 

[Fogelhund]

I think they eventually move Kerfoot to free up cap space. If they do not believe in Rielly they should move him. Allowing him to walk is the worst option IMO. Any honest Leaf fan won't be happy with that whether they love or hate Dubas.

Things are rarely so black and white. I'm sure they believe in Reilly to some degree, but the question is going to be what are the contract demands? Do they believe in him at $6 million, at $7 million, $9 million? To me he's a very good to sometimes excellent offensive D, who is a liability in his own end, and not likely to get any better on the D side. A 4-5 year deal is palatable, but an $8 million x 8 years deal isn't something I'd want to see.

But, then, what are other teams willing to trade for him, and how do we replace what he brings net... (Net of positive offense, negative defense). Are there replacements available, and does making that move help the team? Does the market return value, make up for any negative to the team, down the stretch?

Personally, I'd hope that if a deal can't be done now, we move him before the season starts, and either find the replacement, or see if our current core is competitive without him, before a move. I'm all for moving Reilly, and picking up, and extending an Ekholm, if he'd come in at a more reasonable price.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Regarding a Rielly trade, I can't see a situation where Dubas trades him, even though it would be the best time to do so.

With your job on the line, are you going to risk moving your best defenseman for the possibility of getting futures, which you may not be around to draft/develop? With Rielly on the roster, it gives the Leafs a better chance to win than with him not on the roster.

That assumes 1) his job is on the line, and 2) he would do his job differently if it were. I don't think his job is on the line.

Having said that, trading Rielly for futures when the team is built to win now makes no sense.

I don't think that's true. There is a small group that hates everything he does, just as there is a small group that loves everything he does. Problem being both sides post a lot and bring the same thoughts to every thread regardless of the topic.

Most are in the middle just wishing both of those groups would just go away.

Fair comment, though I think the forum dynamic changed after the loss to the Habs. The edges have gotten a bit bigger and the middle has gotten smaller.

 

[ToneDog]

Things are rarely so black and white. I'm sure they believe in Reilly to some degree, but the question is going to be what are the contract demands? Do they believe in him at $6 million, at $7 million, $9 million? To me he's a very good to sometimes excellent offensive D, who is a liability in his own end, and not likely to get any better on the D side. A 4-5 year deal is palatable, but an $8 million x 8 years deal isn't something I'd want to see.

But, then, what are other teams willing to trade for him, and how do we replace what he brings net... (Net of positive offense, negative defense). Are there replacements available, and does making that move help the team? Does the market return value, make up for any negative to the team, down the stretch?

Personally, I'd hope that if a deal can't be done now, we move him before the season starts, and either find the replacement, or see if our current core is competitive without him, before a move. I'm all for moving Reilly, and picking up, and extending an Ekholm, if he'd come in at a more reasonable price.

I liken Rielly to Hyman. Both players' value increased to a point where we can no longer afford him without moving a Kerfoot (min). The difference with Rielly is that it is in your face now and there is time to move him. With Hyman he upped his value with a monster season and you could not move him at the TDL when you were going all-in.

 

[showtime8]

That assumes 1) his job is on the line, and 2) he would do his job differently if it were. I don't think his job is on the line.

Having said that, trading Rielly for futures when the team is built to win now makes no sense.
.

I'm not sure how you can say that he's not in the hot seat this season. What makes you think that his job isn't on the line? For the record, I'm not really part of either side. I don't love him and I don't hate him.

 

[keonsbitterness]

I'm not sure how you can say that he's not in the hot seat this season. What makes you think that his job isn't on the line? For the record, I'm not really part of either side. I don't love him and I don't hate him.

Shanahan, he of the recent contract extension, essentially staked his Leafs future on Dubas. I find it difficult to believe Dubas won't get at least five years (which means two more) as long as Shanny is here.

Matthews and Nylander become eligible to negotiate extensions two summers from now. That's the next pressure point for potential management changes. So the way I see it, Shanny and Dubas for sure and maybe Keefe will be here for at least two more years.

 

[ToneDog]

Shanahan, he of the recent contract extension, essentially staked his Leafs future on Dubas. I find it difficult to believe Dubas won't get at least five years (which means two more) as long as Shanny is here.

Matthews and Nylander become eligible to negotiate extensions two summers from now. That's the next pressure point for potential management changes. So the way I see it, Shanny and Dubas for sure and maybe Keefe will be here for at least two more years.

NO GOD! PLEASE NO!!! NOOOOOOOOOO - YouTube

 

[Menzinger]

It will take Matthews @75% to get Kaprizov. Maybe Marner @ 50%.

I'm a Kaprizov fan, but I think your overestimating what his value is. The guy has just 62 career NHL games.

 

[keonsbitterness]

NO GOD! PLEASE NO!!! NOOOOOOOOOO - YouTube

Look at the bright side: if I'm right, you've got two years of vigorous forum fights ahead of you.

 

[ToneDog]

I'm a Kaprizov fan, but I think your overestimating what his value is. The guy has just 62 career NHL games.

Yup but isn't he their #1 player? They are not going to give him away for a package of Kerfoot and 1st and Dermott and retain 50%. Gonna take a serious offer to pry him lose IMO.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Shanahan, he of the recent contract extension, essentially staked his Leafs future on Dubas. I find it difficult to believe Dubas won't get at least five years (which means two more) as long as Shanny is here.

Matthews and Nylander become eligible to negotiate extensions two summers from now. That's the next pressure point for potential management changes. So the way I see it, Shanny and Dubas for sure and maybe Keefe will be here for at least two more years.

Disagree. They don't make the playoffs or bow out again, Dubas is gone. And Shanny perhaps too.

 

[ToneDog]

Look at the bright side: if I'm right, you've got two years of vigorous forum fights ahead of you.

Nah, trying to stay out of those. I am waiting for the season to start so we can see what this new cast is made up of. Who knows maybe Dubas hits on Mrazek, Ritchie, Bunting and they win a round. God knows we are due.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Disagree. They don't make the playoffs or bow out again, Dubas is gone. And Shanny perhaps too.

Did you see how fast they trotted everyone out for the post-season press conference? Tells me there was zero consideration for changing course after a hugely disappointing playoff loss. Also tells me ownership has full confidence in management.

Shanny firing Dubas would mean limiting his own job security. I don't see him doing that.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Nah, trying to stay out of those. I am waiting for the season to start so we can see what this new cast is made up of. Who knows maybe Dubas hits on Mrazek, Ritchie, Bunting and they win a round. God knows we are due.

Good attitude. Defeats the purpose of being a fan if you can't have some measure of optimism at the start of a season.

All subject to change of course depending on actual results.

 

[Buds17]

Did you see how fast they trotted everyone out for the post-season press conference? Tells me there was zero consideration for changing course after a hugely disappointing playoff loss. Also tells me ownership has full confidence in management.

Shanny firing Dubas would mean limiting his own job security. I don't see him doing that.

I think Shanahan/Dubas and Dubas/Keefe are so closely aligned that trouble for one might mean trouble for all.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Did you see how fast they trotted everyone out for the post-season press conference? Tells me there was zero consideration for changing course after a hugely disappointing playoff loss. Also tells me ownership has full confidence in management.

Shanny firing Dubas would mean limiting his own job security. I don't see him doing that.

I sure hope you're wrong or that I am and they actually do something this year. I was on board the Dubas train but the Habs series and his comments after - he's the wrong guy at the helm.

 

[Fogelhund]

Yup but isn't he their #1 player? They are not going to give him away for a package of Kerfoot and 1st and Dermott and retain 50%. Gonna take a serious offer to pry him lose IMO.

Kerfoot, a first and Amirov is a pretty serious offer though... two firsts and a decent 2LW, 3C, is a decent offer.

 

[Rob Brown]

Yup but isn't he their #1 player? They are not going to give him away for a package of Kerfoot and 1st and Dermott and retain 50%. Gonna take a serious offer to pry him lose IMO.

Did anyone suggest that?

It'd probably take a combination of a 1st/Robertson/Sandin/Liljegren/Amirov, and then a cap dump like Kerfoot. I'd do it but not sure Dubas would.