GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread -- To trade or not to trade...

[nuck]

I probably said this last summer but I have to imagine short of a conference final appearance, they're going to have to face reality and move on from one of them. I don't even think 88 qualifies as "big" anymore, he'd get more on the open market.

My comment was really based on the current environment as there are so many variables tied to the club's level of success in the next couple of seasons. Another GM won't have Dubas' vision of how the club can succeed but also no ties to the individual players so more inclined to make a bigger move early. I am not sure KD has the luxury of worrying about 2024 unless they start winning in the playoffs and if that happens he is going to resist any real changes. 2024 will mean more to a new GM but regardless of who is driving the bus there is no money to spare for anything close to an $8M D man.

The short game says keep Rielly if you can squeeze him enough on AAV and worry about the future when it comes because this stuff always gets worked out somehow. Just they might be doing a Hawks/Lightning fire sale in a couple of years except they didn't win the Cup first. How they handle Rielly in terms of AAV and NT/NM will indicate if they are on that path.

 

[ToneDog]

Rielly isn’t really an $8 million defenseman though. Notwithstanding the Nurse overpay, which is an entirely different Canadian market dysfunction, and even then you can make the argument that Nurse is 6’4” and there’s a different premium to that size of player, Rielly really didn’t continue on the trajectory of his 70+ point season back in 2019.

So it really just comes down to do you want to be here and we can accommodate you, and if not then we have to trade him by training camp.

Whether he is or isn't, somebody (Burke) will pay him that or more. After being taken off the playoff PP for Sandin, I wonder how much Rielly wants to remain a Leaf when tempted by mega bucks. And if he is not in the plans to be your #1 PP QB, why make him your highest paid dman ??

 

[nuck]

I think the pivot to Hamilton from Rielly would be the equivalent of a sign Curtis Joseph, trade Felix Potvin for Bryan Berard type of move.

There’s no judgement on whether Hamilton is better than Rielly or not but leveraging money to replace a guy you can trade out for futures, thus adding assets to the prospect pool via movement and having a similar caliber player on the roster.

This thought process would have been based on a flat stagnant cap and lower salary demands slotting behind what Petro got last summer. But the fact that salaries for defensemen are skyrocketing means all this goes out the window.

At this rate I think the best course of action to protect our assets is to re-sign Rielly to a short term deal with the ability for him to chase a bigger contract when the cap starts to rise. And you keep the possibility of trading him down the line.

I guess I assumed he would have tunnel vision on an 8 year deal but if the bolded is possible that gives the club an option to bring the same group forward without painting themselves into a corner with the future cap.

 

[WTFMAN99]

My comment was really based on the current environment as there are so many variables tied to the club's level of success in the next couple of seasons. Another GM won't have Dubas' vision of how the club can succeed but also no ties to the individual players so more inclined to make a bigger move early. I am not sure KD has the luxury of worrying about 2024 unless they start winning in the playoffs and if that happens he is going to resist any real changes. 2024 will mean more to a new GM but regardless of who is driving the bus there is no money to spare for anything close to an $8M D man.

The short game says keep Rielly if you can squeeze him enough on AAV and worry about the future when it comes because this stuff always gets worked out somehow. Just they might be doing a Hawks/Lightning fire sale in a couple of years except they didn't win the Cup first. How they handle Rielly in terms of AAV and NT/NM will indicate if they are on that path.

Can't disagree on any of that,

I personally want to move on from Rielly but hard to ignore him at 6-6.5M when some of these other D are getting crazy $$.

 

[fahad203]

This summer is the least excited I have been in probably last 10 years. Not maybe since we got Tim Connelly who I knew was going to break.

Most of the moves we made seems so sideways. Making moves for the sake of making moves
Every player we got seems to be left overs from other teams not wanting them

Usually there are few rookies to look forward to, I am not excited about any of them.

 

[Stephen]

This summer is the least excited I have been in probably last 10 years. Not maybe since we got Tim Connelly who I knew was going to break.

Most of the moves we made seems so sideways. Making moves for the sake of making moves
Every player we got seems to be left overs from other teams not wanting them

Usually there are few rookies to look forward to, I am not excited about any of them.

We’ve been pretty spoiled with franchise changing additions for each of 2014-2018 and some big names in 2019 and 2020 but we’re settling into the flat cap with little room to make a big splash.

 

[ToneDog]

We’ve been pretty spoiled with franchise changing additions for each of 2014-2018 and some big names in 2019 and 2020 but we’re settling into the flat cap with little room to make a big splash.

My excitement peaked with that goal 34 scored on Holtby in game #6. Since then it has been disappointment after disappointment. As such I am not setting myself up for another letdown. Perhaps they will surprise and get out the gate fast and make the playoffs.

 

[LaPlante94]

This summer is the least excited I have been in probably last 10 years. Not maybe since we got Tim Connelly who I knew was going to break.

Most of the moves we made seems so sideways. Making moves for the sake of making moves
Every player we got seems to be left overs from other teams not wanting them

Usually there are few rookies to look forward to, I am not excited about any of them.

When you drafted a core like we got these are the kinds of off seasons we're gonna get until the cap raises. Only way the off season would've been perfect imo is if Seattle took Holl and we let Dermott or Liljegren play with Muzzin and we moved Kerfoot. Even though that didn't happen I'd still say our off season wasn't too bad. Definitely not as bad as last year when we had a chance to get Weegar according to Friedman for Johnsson and Dermott and turned it down. Ended up trading Johnsson anyways for a bottom 6 guy and apparently we think Dermott is only good enough to be a bottom pair guy/7th d man. Basically kept 2 players we don't value very highly for a guy who ended up being a very good top 4 defender.

 

[LaPlante94]

My excitement peaked with that goal 34 scored on Holtby in game #6. Since then it has been disappointment after disappointment. As such I am not setting myself up for another letdown. Perhaps they will surprise and get out the gate fast and make the playoffs.

I'll never forget those playoff series. Unfortunately back then I worked until 11 so had to listen on the radio but Bowen calling the games is just so much better than listening to the guys on the TV.

 

[Leafs1991]

I'm not excited either but I think the players they brough in are way more exciting bring a much better element than compared to Thornto, Simmonds etc.

Kase, Bunting, Ritchie and Kampf will be decent depth if they work out. Maybe Ho-Sang too if he has turned it around.

 

[Stephen]

My excitement peaked with that goal 34 scored on Holtby in game #6. Since then it has been disappointment after disappointment. As such I am not setting myself up for another letdown. Perhaps they will surprise and get out the gate fast and make the playoffs.

I think things started changing when they signed Marleau. It started to be obvious that the old core of Bozak, JVR and Gardiner might not be part of the build moving forward and we would be witnessing a gradual changing of the guards. We went from where the Toronto Blue Jays are/were at around last year, and Tavares the following year became our George Springer moment.

Over the long run it will be interesting to see how this all unfolds whether in triumph or disappointment. From a GM hobby POV the ability to compare and contrast a rebuild that gets super charged with offensive star power vs a very slow Red Wings build primarily from defense is an interesting study.

 

[meefer]

Dunn has never been a top-4 defenseman. Flashes of potential and regularly not living up to it. If he’s better than Dermott, it’s not by much.

A totally gut feeling, but I think a Dermott/Dunn pairing would be a pleasant surprise. Both 6', 205 lbs, strong, Dunn more offense, Dermott better at breaking up entries, decent to good skaters, 24 and 25 years of age, around 200 and 270 games played, just about the time you see defensemen begin to find their place and are confident in it. A sum greater than its parts type of pairing. But, Seattle would have to add their 1st and a little bit more for me to be happy.

 

[Sypher04]

My excitement peaked with that goal 34 scored on Holtby in game #6. Since then it has been disappointment after disappointment. As such I am not setting myself up for another letdown. Perhaps they will surprise and get out the gate fast and make the playoffs.

None of that should be considered a surprise if it happens.

 

[ToneDog]

None of that should be considered a surprise if it happens.

Agreed but I meant myself. I am not going into the season as bullish as others.

 

[deprw]

I think things started changing when they signed Marleau. It started to be obvious that the old core of Bozak, JVR and Gardiner might not be part of the build moving forward and we would be witnessing a gradual changing of the guards. We went from where the Toronto Blue Jays are/were at around last year, and Tavares the following year became our George Springer moment.

Over the long run it will be interesting to see how this all unfolds whether in triumph or disappointment. From a GM hobby POV the ability to compare and contrast a rebuild that gets super charged with offensive star power vs a very slow Red Wings build primarily from defense is an interesting study.

I think our slow build fell out of window with Matthews and Marner charging in. Our team was good enough for playoffs after that and when you draft middle of the pack, it`s hard to gain top prospects from the draft. Detroit have been very unlucky with draft lottery and their team was way worse than ours when they started their rebuild. At least we had JVR, Rielly, Gardiner and Bozak. Though compared to Chicago we didn`t have surplus of secondary defensive talent from draft, those Tallon left behind for Bowman (Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson). I think M & M accelerated our rebuild rather than Tavares. If we`d missed playoffs 2017 we could have traded away Bozak and JVR + drafted one more top10 prospect. We didn`t and didn`t try to lose on purpose, so our losing years where there.

It will be interesting to follow that Red Wings build but those will be hard to fully compare because time is different and luck plays it`s part in the process. You cannot model your build after other, when you have different prospect pool and development process isn`t straight forward when you`re building on prospects which have different growing pains and ability to adapt to NHL speed.

 

[Alamo Leafer]

We’ve been pretty spoiled with franchise changing additions for each of 2014-2018 and some big names in 2019 and 2020 but we’re settling into the flat cap with little room to make a big splash.

more like bogged down thanks to Dubas

 

[shortfuze]

more like bogged down thanks to Dubas

Ya I think most of us are thankful that Dubas paid his young core instead of hacks like Lucic, Neal and Skinner.

 

[VanW27]

Ya I think most of us are thankful that Dubas paid his young core instead of hacks like Lucic, Neal and Skinner.

We're crap, but at least we're not as dumb as Buffalo/Edmonton!

 

[Rob Brown]

Entirely unrealistic, but somehow trading for Kaprizov would be incredible.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Ya I think most of us are thankful that Dubas paid his young core instead of hacks like Lucic, Neal and Skinner.

Why does it need to be an either or situation?

 

[fahad203]

We’ve been pretty spoiled with franchise changing additions for each of 2014-2018 and some big names in 2019 and 2020 but we’re settling into the flat cap with little room to make a big splash.

No doubt. But even at that, usually there's a rookie you are excited about, maybe a new coach or style of play if you see some improvement or a player you think it's going to break out

I am not sure who in this team is going to really break out or bring something different. Even last year I was excited to Big Joe in leafs uniform, the problem is coach played him so much that he made me hate a legend.

Even with Simmonds, I was really excited to see him as a Leafs in the beginning, but I realized very early, that he's done. Expecting him to defend your players when he himself has been through so much physically is not fair

Like last year, we had some big tickets signings also I won't lie, I was looking forward to seeing Mikko Lehtonen

Maybe Pavel Gogolev, he seems to be under radar and shown some flashes or maybe Kokokenn gets a look

 

[showtime8]

Regarding a Rielly trade, I can't see a situation where Dubas trades him, even though it would be the best time to do so.

With your job on the line, are you going to risk moving your best defenseman for the possibility of getting futures, which you may not be around to draft/develop? With Rielly on the roster, it gives the Leafs a better chance to win than with him not on the roster.

 

[ToneDog]

Regarding a Rielly trade, I can't see a situation where Dubas trades him, even though it would be the best time to do so.

With your job on the line, are you going to risk moving your best defenseman for the possibility of getting futures, which you may not be around to draft/develop? With Rielly on the roster, it gives the Leafs a better chance to win than with him not on the roster.

Makes sense. My concern is that he also gave up futures to go "all-in" in an attempt to win a round or "save his job". Even if they keep Rielly and Dubas manages not to get fired, Rielly walks and then what ?? Dubas is a dead man walking and he knows it. Too bad somebody higher up doesn't see it or acted after the embarrassing choke job the boys he bet his job on did a second time in as many years. So let's try it again. Sigh.

 

[Fogelhund]

Entirely unrealistic, but somehow trading for Kaprizov would be incredible.

I don't think we'd have the currency to get it done, but there is an interesting trade scenario... Kaprizov is looking for a 3 x $8 mil deal. Minnesota wants a longer commitment, Kaprizov wants to be walked to UFA. So, Minny signs him to the 3 x $8 mil, turns around and trades him at 50%.

Funny enough, if we moved Kerfoot, we could actually do such a deal, though the cost would be ridiculous.

 

[Fogelhund]

Just for giggles, and not to be taken seriously.

Trades

TOR

1. Miller, K'Andre
2. Schneider, Braden

NYR

1. Rielly, Morgan

TOR

1. Kaprizov, Kirill Signed 3x $8 mil by Minnesota, (50% retained)

MIN

1. Kerfoot, Alexander
2. Amirov, Rodion
3. 2023 1st round pick (TOR)

TOR

1. Ekholm, Mattias

NSH

1. Dermott, Travis
2. 2022 1st round pick (TOR)

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$80,958,116	$0	$750,000	$541,884

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Buyout

Add to Trade

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Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Ritchie, Nick $2,500,000 LW UFA - 2	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250 C UFA - 3	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000 RW UFA - 4
Kaprizov, Kirill $4,000,000 LW, RW RFA	Tavares, John $11,000,000 C NMC UFA - 4	Nylander, William $6,962,366 RW, LW UFA - 3
Mikheyev, Ilya $1,645,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Kämpf, David $1,500,000 C, RW UFA - 2	Kase, Ondrej $1,250,000 RW RFA - 1
Engvall, Pierre $1,250,000 LW, C RFA - 1	Spezza, Jason $750,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Simmonds, Wayne $900,000 RW, LW NTC UFA - 2
Bunting, Michael $950,000 LW UFA - 2
Roster created at CapFriendly.com | Follow on Twitter @CapFriendly

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Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Ekholm, Mattias $3,750,000 LD UFA - 1	Brodie, TJ $5,000,000 RD NTC UFA - 3	Mrázek, Petr $3,800,000 G M-NTC UFA - 3
Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000 LD NTC UFA - 3	Holl, Justin $2,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Campbell, Jack $1,650,000 G UFA - 1
Miller, K'Andre $925,000 LD RFA - 2	Liljegren, Timothy $863,333 RD RFA - 1
Sandin, Rasmus $894,167 LD RFA - 1

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